Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 9
|
|
|
Author
|
Topic: Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007** (Read 128073 times)
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
Just 2 months ago, in this topic a prediction/betting game came up. It got average to low popularity, and confusion ruled so some predicted about December 2007 while some other about December 2008. I'd recap the whole thing here for your loins pleasure. I'd say both categories should apply at this point, meaning December 2007 AND December 2008. No need to say spot on predictions on Dec 2008 are worth way more kudos than those for 2007. So, you are supposed to cast your prediction on how many subscriptions will these 6 games have as of December 2007 and December 2008 (this means two sets of predictions). Tha games being: Warhammer Online, Age of Conan, Lord of the Rings Online, Pirates of the Burning Sea, Vanguard and World of Warcraft. Those are 5 soon to be released games plus the paradigm, the milestone, the subscription king of them all. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RECAP of *actual* (?) active subscriptions as December 2007 (estimates, so in progress):Warhammer Online: Not Yet Released. Age of Conan: Not Yet Released. Vanguard: 30kLord of the Rings: 250kPirates of the Burning Sea: Not Yet Released. World of Warcraft: 9,3 M.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Bets (off as January 31th 2007):Threat Level:Lime Green = 1+ millions subsGreen = 400k to 999k subsYellow = 200k to 399k subsOrange = 100k to 199kk subsRed = less than 100k subsBets for December 2007:Delayed: Warhammer Online (ACTUAL: Not Yet Released. See you next Year.) *****-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****The winners are:*Simond: Not Out Yet* *Trouble: Not Out Yet* *Eldaec: Not Out Yet*Runners up:No Runners Up! *****---------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****The bets: Shapechanger: 2,5 millions Angry.bob: 2 millions Darniaq: 1 million Modern Angel: 1 million Datagod: 780k Riggswolfe: 600k Falconeer: 500k Sairon: 500k Evangolis: 500k Damijin: 450k Stray: 400k Soln: 350k WindUpAtheist: 250k Xuri: 250k Lantyssa: 200k Endie: 180k Andar: 150k Waylander: 150k HaemishM: 150k Unsub: 150k Comstar: 120k Strazos: 115k HRose: 100k Geldonyetich: 50k Eldaec: - Merusk: - Simond: - Trouble: -
Delayed: Age of Conan (ACTUAL: Not Yet Released. See you next Year.) Modern Angel: 750k Darniaq: 600k Riggswolfe: 500k Shapechanger: 450k Sairon: 400k Trouble: 400k Simond: 350k Falconeer: 250k Merusk: 250k Evangolis: 210k Stray: 200k WindUpAtheist: 200k Lanyssa: 200k Xuri: 200k Soln: 200k HaemishM: 150k Damijin: 125k Endie: 120k Datagod: 120k HRose: 100k Eldaec: 100k Unsub: 100k Andar: 80k Waylander: 80k Strazos: 78k Comstar: 70k Geldonyetich: 25k Angry.bob: -Vanguard (ACTUAL: 30k ) Falconeer: 400kDarniaq: 300k Merusk: 200k WindUpAtheist: 200k Xuri: 200k Soln: 200kShapechanger: 160k Modern Angel: 120k Evangolis: 115k Eldaec: 100k Damijin: 100k Simond: 100k Lantyssa: 100k Riggswolfe: 100kEndie: 90k Waylander: 90k HRose: 80k Sairon: 80k Trouble: 75k Stray: 70k Datagod: 68k Angry.bob: 60k Unsub: 60k Strazos: 55k Andar: 50k Comstar: 50k HaemishM: 25k Geldonyetich: 15kLord of the Rings Online (ACTUAL: 250k ) Shapechanger: 800k Simond: 500k Darniaq: 400kEndie: 300k Modern Angel: 300k Lantyssa: 300k Xuri: 300k Trouble: 300k Evangolis: 220k HRose: 200k Merusk: 200k Falconeer: 200k Stray: 200k Angry.bob: 200kEldaec: 150k Strazos: 132k Waylander: 125k Sairon: 100k HaemishM: 100k Geldonyetich: 100k Unsub: 100k Soln: 100kDamijin: 80k Datagod: 54k Comstar: 50k Andar: 20kWindUpAtheist: - Riggswolfe: - Delayed: Pirates of the Burning Sea (ACTUAL: Not Yet Released. See you next Year.) Shapechanger: 450k Datagod: 146k Lantyssa: 125k Darniaq: 100k Evangolis: 85k Strazos: 76k HaemishM: 75k Xuri: 75k Waylander: 70k Sairon: 70k Angry.bob: 70k Simond: 50k Soln: 50k Falconeer: 30k Damijin: 30k Trouble: 30k Comstar: 20k Modern Angel: 20k Unsub: 20k Geldonyetich: 10k Stray: - Andar: - Endie: - HRose: - Eldaec: - Merusk: - WindUpAtheist: - Riggswolfe: -Final! World of Warcraft (ACTUAL: 9,3 M ) *****-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****The winners are:*Comstar: 9 millions* *Riggswolfe: 9 millions*Runners up:WindUpAtheist: 10 millions Simond: 10 millions Trouble: 10 millions Soln: 10 millions *****-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****The bets: HRose: 12 millions Modern Angel: 12 millions Xuri: 12 millions Angry.bob: 11 millions Lantyssa: 11 millions Datagod: 10,3 millions WindUpAtheist: 10 millions Simond: 10 millions Trouble: 10 millions Soln: 10 millions ***Comstar: 9 millions*** Gratz! ***Riggswolfe: 9 millions*** Gratz! Damijin: 8.5 millions Eldaec: 8.5 millions Andar: 8 millions Darniaq: 8 millions HaemishM: 8 millions Unsub: 8 millions Evangolis: 8 millions Waylander: 7.5k Sairon: 7 millions Shapechanger: 6 millions Falconeer: 5 millions Endie: 4.1 millions Geldonyetich: 3 millionsStray: - Merusk: - Strazos: - ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bets for December 2008: Warhammer OnlineAngry.bob: 5 millions Shapechanger: 3,5 millions Datagod: 1,8 millions Modern Angel: 1,5 millions Darniaq: 1.5 millions Trouble: 1,5 millions Arthur Parker: 1 million Falconeer: 1 million Riggswolfe: 1 millionEvangolis: 930k Simond: 750k Sairon: 700k Damijin: 650k Soln: 500k Comstar: 450kEldaec: 350k Waylander: 350k HaemishM: 350k WindUpAtheist: 325k HRose: 300k Strazos: 236kUnsub: 190k Lantyssa: 175k Stray: 150k Xuri: 150kCheddar: 45kAge of ConanSairon: 600k Trouble: 600k Modern Angel: 500k Riggswolfe: 400kShapechanger: 350k Soln: 350k Darniaq: 300k WindUpAtheist: 300k Xuri: 300k HRose: 250k Evangolis: 240k Falconeer: 200k Simond: 200k HaemishM: 200kLantyssa: 175k Stray: 150k Damijin: 150k Unsub: 150k Strazos: 111kArthur Parker: 90k Datagod: 70k Eldaec: 40k Waylander: 40k Cheddar: 35kComstar: - Angry.bob: - VanguardFalconeer: 300k Xuri: 250kDarniaq: 200k Soln: 200kEvangolis: 110kDamijin: 80k WindUpAtheist: 75k Lantyssa: 75k Datagod: 72k Modern Angel: 70k Shapechanger: 65k Arthur Parker: 60k Cheddar: 60k Stray: 60k Waylander: 60k Angry.bob: 60k Simond: 60k Comstar: 55k HRose: 50k Trouble: 50k Eldaec: 40k Sairon: 40k Unsub: 40k Strazos: 37k HaemishM: 30k Riggswolfe: 25kLord of the Rings OnlineShapechanger: 550k Angry.bob: 500k Modern Angel: 400kSimond: 350k Trouble: 300k Evangolis: 250k Darniaq: 200k Lantyssa: 200k Xuri: 200kFalconeer: 150k Cheddar: 140k Strazos: 103k HRose: 100k Unsub: 100k Soln: 100kWindUpAtheist: 90k Sairon: 80k Waylander: 75k Eldaec: 50k Damijin: 50k HaemishM: 50k Stray: 40k Datagod: 35k Comstar: 30kArthur Parker: - Riggswolfe: - Pirates of the Burning SeaDatagod: 800kShapechanger: 350kEvangolis: 130k Comstar: 120k Strazos: 107k Darniaq: 100k Sairon: 100k Lantyssa: 100kAngry.bob: 80k Waylander: 75k Simond: 75k HaemishM: 75k Damijin: 70k Trouble: 70k Unsub: 65k WindUpAtheist: 40k Soln: 50k Xuri: 40k Modern Angel: 20k Falconeer: 20kArthur Parker: - Cheddar: - Stray: - HRose: - Eldaec: - Riggswolfe: - World of WarcraftXuri: 15 millions Lantyssa: 13 millions Modern Angel: 12 millions Simond: 11 millions Trouble: 11 millions HRose: 10 millions Comstar: 10 millions Soln: 10 millions Cheddar: 9 millions Stray: 9 millions Eldaec: 9 millions WindUpAtheist: 9 millions Waylander: 9 millions Evangolis: 9 millions Riggswolfe: 8,5 millions Datagod: 8,3 millions Darniaq: 7 millions Damijin: 7 millions Sairon: 7 millions HaemishM: 7 millions Strazos: 6,2 millions Unsub: 6 millions Angry.bob: 5 millions Shapechanger: 4,5 millions Falconeer: 4 millionsArthur Parker: - Betting ended on January 30th 2007.
|
|
« Last Edit: January 03, 2009, 05:55:01 AM by Falconeer »
|
|
|
|
|
damijin
Terracotta Army
Posts: 448
|
I put this in the other thread as soon as you started this one, but I might as well get the ball rolling.
December 2007: - Vanguard: 100k - Lord of the Rings Online: 80k - PoTBS: 30k - Warhammer: 450k - World of Warcraft: Oodles. (8.5m)
December 2008: - Vanguard: 80k - Lord of the Rings Online: 50k - PoTBS: 70k - Warhammer: 650k - World of Warcraft: A little less than oodles, on account of being old as fuck. (7m)
|
|
|
|
schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
|
This thread needs a list of every MMOG and it's "fake" release date. As in the one that's quoted everwhere. What if Huxley comes out this year? Should WoW even be included? Etc. etc. If you're gonna do it, do it right.
|
|
|
|
damijin
Terracotta Army
Posts: 448
|
This thread needs a list of every MMOG and it's "fake" release date. As in the one that's quoted everwhere. What if Huxley comes out this year? Should WoW even be included? Etc. etc. If you're gonna do it, do it right.
I agree, I was too lazy to look for all that shit so I just copy-pasted darniaq's list and changed the numbers.
|
|
|
|
Arthur_Parker
Terracotta Army
Posts: 5865
Internet Detective
|
I think it would read better if you grouped it by game not by person.
|
|
|
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
The original idea was to bet just on 5 titles and for December 2008, cause 2007 was too early for things like Warhammer. The original 5 were Warhammer, LoTRO, Vanguard, World of Warcraft and Age of Conan. I gathered the sparse info from the older messy topic where everyone went his/her way.
Of course we could redo it from scratch or just trash not relevant/consistent info. Is it worth it? Should we add Huxley for example, or Aion, or Tabula Rasa or Lum's game? It's ok for me... just let me know.
(By the way, on a different forum 4 years ago I played a similar game, that was about predicting launch dates for EQ2, WoW, City of Heroes and Horizons. The fake release dates are a game in itself)
|
|
|
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
I think it would read better if you grouped it by game not by person.
Sweet. Give me 2 minutes..
|
|
|
|
stray
Terracotta Army
Posts: 16818
has an iMac.
|
Uh, I still stick by my first predictions. That second group of numbers I listed were in the context of some hypothetical situation or something. Forgot the actual thread.
|
|
|
|
eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11841
|
'07
WoW : 8.5M Lotr : 150k EVE : 150k Age of Conan : 100k Vanguard : 100k EQ1 : 100k EQ2 : 100k CoX : 80k UO : 50k SWG : hanging on by it's fingernails WAR : Not yet released (I almost feel bad writing that knowing how many Mythic types are in the forum this week)
'08
WoW : 9.0M WAR : 350k At least one game not listed, I hope : 250k EVE : 150k EQ2 : 70k Lotr : 50k CoX : 50k EQ1 : 50k Age of Conan : 40k Vanguard : 40k UO : WUA SWG : Dead
|
"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
|
|
|
Righ
Terracotta Army
Posts: 6542
Teaching the world Google-fu one broken dream at a time.
|
A/S/L?
If we're gonna do this, we need SirBruce back, with charts.
|
The camera adds a thousand barrels. - Steven Colbert
|
|
|
WayAbvPar
|
A/S/L?
If we're gonna do this, we need SirBruce back, with charts.
We really don't.
|
When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM
Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood
Libertarians make fun of everyone because they can't see beyond the event horizons of their own assholes Surlyboi
|
|
|
WindupAtheist
Army of One
Posts: 7028
Badicalthon
|
UO : WUA I literally LOL'd.
|
"You're just a dick who quotes himself in his sig." -- Schild "Yeah, it's pretty awesome." -- Me
|
|
|
HRose
I'm Special
Posts: 1205
VIKLAS!
|
Making decent predictions under those conditions is impossible: 1- You can make a reasonable guess for games three months after launch. An average number of subs the game will likely get. But a fixed month is HARD, as release dates determine the curve the game will have. 2- Console market is LARGELY unpredictable. Pitch black. But I like the game, so:
Bets for December 2007:
HRose - Tabula Rasa: 250k - Warhammer: not out, or not measurable due to close release (50/100k) - Age of Conan: 100k (climbing to 150/200k if released enough months before Dec) - Lord of the Rings Online: 200k MAX - Vanguard: 50/80k - WoW: around 12M - Eve: 210k - CoX: 140k
Bets for December 2008:
HRose - Tabula Rasa: 300k ↑ - Warhammer: 250/300k ↑ - Age of Conan: 150/250k ↑ - Lord of the Rings Online: 100k ↓ - Vanguard: 50k ↓ - WoW: around 10M ↓ - Eve: 170k ↓ - CoX: 90k ↓
|
|
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 03:48:56 PM by HRose »
|
|
|
|
|
WindupAtheist
Army of One
Posts: 7028
Badicalthon
|
This thread needs more charts. Someone unban Bruce.
|
"You're just a dick who quotes himself in his sig." -- Schild "Yeah, it's pretty awesome." -- Me
|
|
|
schild
Administrator
Posts: 60345
|
No.
|
|
|
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
I fixed the whole thing according to Arthur Parker suggestion. I trashed Tazelbain and Waylander predictions as they were on a single game. They are of course more than welcomed to submit a more compliant set of predictions. I chose 6 games as of now, but I ask for your help agian here: should we Gods n' Heroes, Huxley, Tabula Rasa or anything else? Personally, I think we are more than fine with this, adding more would get too complicated and basicallyless fun, but that's just me. Finally, it'd be nice if those who already cast their predictions but forgot one or more of the chosen game could fix his/her bet by filling in the missing numbers.
Oh, fake release dates incoming...
|
|
|
|
HRose
I'm Special
Posts: 1205
VIKLAS!
|
I'd propose this alternatively:
[name of game] [subs four months after launch] [ longer term average] [trend in 2008 (up/down arrow)]
I think that would give a better ideas about people's opinion and also deliver more reliable predictions.
|
|
|
|
Signe
Terracotta Army
Posts: 18942
Muse.
|
I have used a chart like this in the past. Hope it helps. PS Vanguard is in my dead pool for 2008, along with Justin Timberlake and the Spike channel.
|
My Sig Image: hath rid itself of this mortal coil.
|
|
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
I'd propose this alternatively:
[name of game] [subs four months after launch] [ longer term average] [trend in 2008 (up/down arrow)]
I think that would give a better ideas about people's opinion and also deliver more reliable predictions.
Ugh... that gets out of the modest scope of my capabilities. Plus we'd lose the thrill of the Christmas deadline and yearly commendation event <grin>.
|
|
|
|
WayAbvPar
|
Signe wins the chart wars. Now can I get a guarantee to never see the words cervical and mucus in the same thread EVAR AGAIN?
|
When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM
Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood
Libertarians make fun of everyone because they can't see beyond the event horizons of their own assholes Surlyboi
|
|
|
Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
|
Nice work Falconeer. Here's some more numbers:
Age of Conan 2007- 600k 2008- 300k
|
|
|
|
Merusk
Terracotta Army
Posts: 27449
Badge Whore
|
Conan: 200-250k Vanguard: 150-200k TR: Not this year, kiddies LoTR: 150-200k Signe wins the chart wars. Now can I get a guarantee to never see the words cervical and mucus in the same thread EVAR AGAIN?
This is the intraweb. We can make no guarantees. Besides, what'd you THINK you were playing around in, water?
|
|
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 04:54:29 PM by Merusk »
|
|
The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
|
|
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
Merusk,
Are you casting your predictions for dec 2007 or 2008? Guess 2007 given your comment on TR but I want to be sure.
|
|
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 05:20:19 PM by Falconeer »
|
|
|
|
|
damijin
Terracotta Army
Posts: 448
|
TR: Not this year, kiddies
If she doesn't make it out the door this year, I don't think she's going to make it at all. Oh, and since I didn't put in Age of Conan for my original list, could you add: 2007: AoC - 125,000 2008: AoC - 150,000 Thanks!
|
|
|
|
Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
|
Agreed. I've long given TR only a 50% chance of launching at all. It's got some cool ideas, but those cool ideas are better suited when launched from a position of strength.
|
|
|
|
Modern Angel
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3553
|
I'll bite. 2007Warhammer - 1mil Conan - 750k Vanguard - 120k LotRO - 300k Burning Sea - 20k WoW - 12mil 2008Warhammer - 1.5mil Conan - 500k Vanguard - 70k LotRO - 400k Burning Sea - 20k WoW - 12mil Few things at work. WAR and Conan are both jumping into the console market so I think they'd get solid numbers from that alone. As well, there are alot of the two year WoW players who are starting to grind themselves out on the game; I expect alot of the older players to meander through BC and then shift to WAR and Conan. LOTRO will get better numbers as time wears on because . In the meantime, WoW will continue to eat everything alive; I'm still amazed whenever I go through Tanaris or wherever at the number of first timers asking questions. It's a behemoth and not going anywhere.
|
|
|
|
Merusk
Terracotta Army
Posts: 27449
Badge Whore
|
Merusk,
Are you casting your predictions for dec 2007 or 2008? Guess 2007 given your comment on TR but I want to be sure.
Yeah 2007.
|
The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
|
|
|
Sairon
Terracotta Army
Posts: 866
|
2007
Warhammer - 500k Conan - 400k Vanguard - 80k LotRO - 100k Burning Sea - 70k WoW - 7 mil
2008
Warhammer - 700k Conan - 600k Vanguard - 40k LotRO - 80k Burning Sea - 100k WoW - 7 mil
Warhammer comes strong out of the gates and will take some customers from the WoW crowd and various other MMOs, same goes for Conan. I believe that they will continue to see a flow of new customers, mainly from WoW. I predict people will find that TBC is offering nothing really new to them and start to burn out. However, I think that they will continue to draw in new people to the genre. Vanguard will crash because it has a competition that is to tough for such a mediocre game, and it doesn't separate it self enough from the crowd. The same goes for LotRO, but the ip will help them some. Burning Sea is niche enough and I think there's room for growth because of that.
|
|
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 06:07:30 PM by Sairon »
|
|
|
|
|
Comstar
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1952
|
I think some of my 2007 predictions are low now, but I'll let them stand.
December 2008: - Vanguard: 55K - Lord of the Rings Online: 30K - PoTBS: 120K - Warhammer: 450K - World of Warcraft: 10 milliona
|
Defending the Galaxy, from the Scum of the Universe, with nothing but a flashlight and a tshirt. We need tanks Boo, lots of tanks!
|
|
|
waylander
Terracotta Army
Posts: 526
|
'07
WoW : 7.5M Lotr : 125k EVE : 130k Age of Conan : 80k Vanguard : 90k EQ1 : 200k EQ2 : 100k CoX : 80k UO : 90k SWG : 60k WAR : 150k POTBS: 70k
'08
WoW : 9.0M WAR : 250-350k EVE : 150k EQ1: 150k POTBS: 90k EQ2 : 80k Lotr : 75k CoX : 50k EQ1 : 50k Age of Conan : 40k Vanguard : 60k UO : 75k SWG : Cancelled
|
|
|
|
Numtini
Terracotta Army
Posts: 7675
|
I have used a chart like this in the past.
And people here think Vanguard has a grind. (Could that thing take any longer to beep in the morning?) WOW will continue to grow, but more slowly. On the new releases? War and Conan have the potential to do well. Good flexible licenses (Star Wars would be an example of a bad inflexible license) and simply being on a console is guaranteed to improve adoption. But they are also the two games closest to one another and have the potential to cannibalize that market. The next question on that angle is how console gamers will react to the level of bugs Maybe 500k between the two? And the entire rest of the batch, nothing over 50k? Really I see a lot of flops.
|
If you can read this, you're on a board populated by misogynist assholes.
|
|
|
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11124
a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country
|
Maybe 500k between the two? And the entire rest of the batch, nothing over 50k? Really I see a lot of flops.
Uhmm...?! ?SYNTAX ERROR READY. |
|
|
|
|
hal
Terracotta Army
Posts: 835
Damn kids, get off my lawn!
|
Ill have to say I also see war and Conan in there. Surviving and Maybe thriving (or not) and the others not so much with the aside there is a lot of buzz about vanguard so i am thinking it may sell a lot of boxes. But keep subscribers? I really don't see that. Of course I have been wrong before.
|
I started with nothing, and I still have most of it
I'm not a complete idiot... Some parts are still on backorder.
|
|
|
damijin
Terracotta Army
Posts: 448
|
Should average out the numbers at the end of the month to get F13's mean opinion of each game. That's a pun
|
|
|
|
Grimwell
Developers
Posts: 752
[Redacted]
|
I'm waiting for geldon to put in his numbers. He's the bellwether for accuracy. :)
|
Grimwell
|
|
|
|
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 9
|
|
|
|