Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[stray]

Unless Stray plays.  He has a billion posts!  AND IT NEVER STOPS!

They're so easy to come by. 

[Endie]

I said 4.1 million for WoW?  Really?!?  Man, I need to check myself in somewhere for help.

I can update that for you, if you want.

No, no.  Clearly I believed that when I wrote it - the 4 and 7 keys are pretty far apart, after all - so I'll just form an orderly queue for ridicule next to poor Geldon.  All I can say is that it's a valueable lesson not to drink and post.

[Cheddar]

No, no.  Clearly I believed that when I wrote it - the 4 and 7 keys are pretty far apart, after all - so I'll just form an orderly queue for ridicule next to poor Geldon.  All I can say is that it's a valueable lesson not to drink and post.

I drink better after a few posts.   

[Shapechanger]

Now, I think that with all the competition, of which there is currently hardly any, Warcrafts numbers will go down as people bail and those who are keeping accounts open let them slip.   

I think there will be more players in the market, and more dabbling away from Warcraft.

I think that Warhammer is going to be a smash hit.  Proven developer, and ~$50 million development and marketing with an EA worldwide release.

I mark Age of Conan down because Funcom is on it and I do not have faith about the release.  Pirates is small and independent, but I think they will do well in a niche.

Lord of the Rings is hard to tell.  What will the fanbase mean?  My wife **HATES** MMO games.  Hates them.  But she's expressed ongoing interest in MEO for 3 years going now.  Is making me build her a PC.   Now that piques my interest, because she is an MMO hater who only wants to play LotRO for the story.

December 2007:
Warcraft 6 million
Pirates 450k
Lord of the Rings 800k
Warhammer 2.5 million
Age of Conan 450k
Vanguard 160k

December 2008
Warcraft 4.5 million
Pirates 350k
Lord of the Rings 550k
Warhammer 3.5 million
Age of Conan 350k
Vanguard 65k

[hal]

I am gonna have to use myself as an example. This past year I have subscribed to WOW (probably 3 times) EQ2 (Probably twice) EVE (Twice) once with 2 accounts. COX ( 2 or 3 times). I am currently subscribed to EVE (I have no idea why) and COX ( I seem to be having fun here). Cheddar is my pal. I am a butterfly, I go from sweet flower to sweet flower. What am I gonna do this year? From what I know Warhammer (i Am not a PVP kinda guy, still  I will have to take a look) Age of Conan sounds gritty (I have no real DAOC experience and it sounds like a reskin. But I will have to look). Will I buy vanguard (I buy lots of stuff I don't play including an xbox360 I never turn on) Maybe and Maybe not. POTBS? Probally if I get bored. What are my thoughts? To me its the community more than the game. I think age of Conan has the best shot but I am looking from a distance. Does everyone think like me? No, if I thought like everyone I would be playing WOW now. OK Hal, Your playing COX. You never find children playing COX? Why yes thanks for asking but that does in fact happen, but I find a larger percentage of really good groups there than anything I might find in WOW. A good group in WOW is an amazing experience, that game deserves all the fame it has gathered. It is the fact that at low levels ( I am an alt a holic) good groups are rare.

[Trouble]

December 2007:
Warcraft 10 million
Pirates 30k
Lord of the Rings 300k
Warhammer not out yet
Age of Conan 400k
Vanguard 75k

December 2008
Warcraft 11 million
Pirates 70k
Lord of the Rings 300k
Warhammer 1.5 million
Age of Conan 600k
Vanguard 50k

[Evangolis]

Ok, I'll play, but no colors from the colorblind guy.

2007

WHOL: 500K (If it is out)
AOC: 210K  (This seems too low, but I'm a huge Robert Howard fan, so who knows)
VG: 115K
LOTROL: 220K (International marketing might blow this up huge, though)
PotBS: 85K
WOW: 8M
Runescape: 1.1M ($5 a month is a nice price for high school kids with 6 year old PCs)
Eve: 150K
COH/V: 150K
EQ1: 180K
EQ2: 120K
SWG: 100K
UO: 120K

2008

WHOL: 930K
AOC: 240K
VG: 110K
LOTROL: 250K
PotBS: 130K
WOW: 9M
Runescape: 1.2M
Eve: 175K
COH/V: 140K
EQ1: 150K
EQ2: 110K
SWG: 90K
UO: 100K

All numbers pulled directly from my ass, except where I really had no idea, then I just averaged you guys and added 10%, because I've been listening to the predictions of industry wide doom since Kunark.  Although Vangaurd really does have the potential to go down in flames, but a lot of people are going to at least buy the box, and that is the first break a game needs, after which not sucking becomes key.

[Shapechanger]

What am I gonna do this year? From what I know Warhammer (i Am not a PVP kinda guy, still  I will have to take a look) Age of Conan sounds gritty (I have no real DAOC experience and it sounds like a reskin. But I will have to look).

Warhammer would be by the DAoC guys.

Age of Conan is by the Anarchy Online guys.

[WindupAtheist]

Predicting millions for Warhammer is pure madness.  Nobody but hardcore nerds cares about the IP, and while fanboys will screech, the fact is that to the marketplace at large it's just a WoW ripoff.

[Evangolis]

Predicting millions for Warhammer is pure madness.  Nobody but hardcore nerds cares about the IP, and while fanboys will screech, the fact is that to the marketplace at large it's just a WoW ripoff.

You say that like its a bad thing.

[WindupAtheist]

It's a "hundreds of thousands" good thing, not a "millions" good thing.

[Tale]

If I was marketing WoW's expansion pack, I would try to ride on the Second Life media hype. Hi, you liked the sound of that Second Life thing? Did you know there's a more exciting virtual world with eight times the players already and a currency that is worth more against the US$? Where it's like those Lord of the Rings movies? Which is universally hailed by critics, and has an even-more-hailed expansion pack? It's bigger than the movies. And here's an attractive couple who met in the game.

Twenty millions.

[Shapechanger]

Predicting millions for Warhammer is pure madness.  Nobody but hardcore nerds cares about the IP, and while fanboys will screech, the fact is that to the marketplace at large it's just a WoW ripoff.

I don't think it's madness at all.  It seems to me that $50 millions and EA marketing can shove just about anything they please in your face till you are sick of seeing it.

Secondly, I'll agree that to the US market, Warhammer looks like a WoW ripoff to the typical gaming ignoramus - and only uber nerds are into the table top in the US.  But of Blizzards subscriptions how many are in the US, less than 1/4?  So it's not a big hit in the US, so what?  Europe is their primary target to begin with.

Warhammer is a big F'in deal in Europe. And Asians don't give 2 pebbly shits if it is copied or not.  And it is a very PvP centric game.  Less bunnies to worry about petting, and more people to kill.  Less overall numbers, sure.  Doesn't mean it won't be a smash hit with EA pushing it in your face everywhere you turn, worldwide.

Fact is, Warcraft ripoff perception does probably more good for Warhammer than bad, and time will slowly bring about more awareness on the ripoff issue, as well.  'Cause we all know who ripped off Warhammer, Dragonlance, etc in a wholesale fashion.

[DataGod]

I initiated data points for this in our system....lets see what the actual population choice is related what games are being most anticipated

I've stratified the choices the give me a fequency across all the given choices. Once we finish closed beta (4 weeks) I'll pull the report and dump the results here cause Im nice, wait a second whats the prize if we win? Maybe I'll keep the data to myself.....lol

[Falconeer]

I initiated data points for this in our system....lets see what the actual population choice is related what games are being most anticipated

I've stratified the choices the give me a fequency across all the given choices. Once we finish closed beta (4 weeks) I'll pull the report and dump the results here cause Im nice, wait a second whats the prize if we win? Maybe I'll keep the data to myself.....lol

?
Are you for real?

[Strazos]

Just looked at the overall standings...

Wow, I'm really lowballing the industry as a whole. 

[Endie]

I initiated data points for this in our system....lets see what the actual population choice is related what games are being most anticipated

I've stratified the choices the give me a fequency across all the given choices. Once we finish closed beta (4 weeks) I'll pull the report and dump the results here cause Im nice, wait a second whats the prize if we win? Maybe I'll keep the data to myself.....lol

I suspect I recognise you from Terra Nova, yes?

[WindupAtheist]

All the guys from Warhammer, Blizzard, and Dungeons & Dragons should be put in a big high-walled mud wrestling pit and made to fight it out over who's stealing from who.  Then as the debacle reaches it's climax, one of the descendants of J.R.R Tolkien can stand up on the edge of the wall and machine-gun the lot of them.

[DataGod]

I initiated data points for this in our system....lets see what the actual population choice is related what games are being most anticipated

I've stratified the choices the give me a fequency across all the given choices. Once we finish closed beta (4 weeks) I'll pull the report and dump the results here cause Im nice, wait a second whats the prize if we win? Maybe I'll keep the data to myself.....lol

I suspect I recognise you from Terra Nova, yes?

Maybe :)

I actually tried to change my account name here to my first name but it looks like Im stuck with this rediculous one for the time being.

I also added data points related to not only what games people are going to play, but what games they are LEAVING to go play them. Although, its a beta population so its a beta sized sample (small)

[Teleku]

On predicting future WOW numbers, its probably a good idea to keep in mind they are planning on releasing more expansions, and claim to be planning on releasing them quicker than they did BC (given how Blizzard has always operated though, we`ll see).  So by Dececember 2008, there should be at least one new expansion out, with another either just released or heavily in the works.  Given how drastic of a update BC is to the overall game, in terms of overall gameplay change and massive content, if they do these expansions correctly (and that is a big if), it should be an excellent way of retaining players and even adding new ones.  Predictions of WOW sub numbers dropping a few million due to showing "its age" ignores this I think.  Of course, they could just totally fuck over the game and piss everybody off and lose them that way, but who knows.

I cant even begin to try and predict hard numbers for anything though.  I basically think WAR will do ok and hold its own, Conan will do a little worst but survive, and everything else will pretty much fail on the grand scheme of things.  PotBS might actually do decently though, since it seems pretty fun.

[damijin]

Well that came a lot faster than expected. I think a lot of us just lost the game, unless they start to decline and don't talk about it, leaving their official number around 8m until December~

But you damn well know it's only going up.

[WindupAtheist]

I'm in a bit better shape having predicted that WoW will eventually decline to 9 million, but shit, I could still have been too conservative.

[Falconeer]

I thought WoW was already 8m, so I am not impressed.

[Riggswolfe]

I'll throw my hat into the ring.

December 2007:

WoW, 9 million. I don't see it growing significantly in a year when more MMOs are coming out.
Vanguard, 100k
AOC, 500k
WAR, 600k

I am wondering if AOC and WAR being on XBOX360 in addition to PC will have much effect on their numbers.

December 2008:

WoW, 8.5 million.
Vanguard, 25k
AOC, 400k
WAR, 1 million

Those last two predictions are based on assumptions, like WAR is moderately well done and fun. AOC manages to avoid a "Funcom launch". Etc. If AOC has launch problems like AO did its numbers will be much lower. If WAR doesn't live up to the hype it'll have much lower numbers as well, though the IP alone may carry it for awhile in Europe, much like what happened with SWG in the U.S. I'm also curious how well the PvP formula in WAR will go over with the average gamer.

[Soln]

here are my picks.  They are all pretty conservative and sceptical.  Basically, I am counting on:

1.  new games with lots of hype not being stable or complete for most of their first years
2.  WoW capping by 2008
3.  some games like LOTRO getting their act together well after launch and then taking off.

Bets for December 2007:
Warhammer Online: 350k
Age of Conan: 200k
Vanguard: 200k
Lord of the Rings Online: 100k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 50k:
World of Warcraft: 10 millions

Bets for December 2008:
Warhammer Online: 500k
Age of Conan: 350k
Vanguard: 200k
Lord of the Rings Online: 500k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 100k
World of Warcraft: 10 millions

[Trippy]

Just because I know how much we all love charts here:



The big jump in the middle of 2005 is from China and since that point it's basically been uninterrupted linear growth and it even accelerated a bit over the 4th quarter 2006.

[naum]

WoW to grow to 14 million... ...and still eclipse every other MMO on the market... ...until some other outfit "gets it"... ...not meaning replicating their game, but mimicing the polish, cross-platform development, focus on gameplay, game v. "sandbox world", etc....

[Evil Elvis]

LotRO & (belated) Vanguard Prediction two-fer:




December 2007:
World of Warcraft: 8 million
Warhammer Online: 300k
Age of Conan: 80k
Vanguard: 60k
Lord of the Rings Online: 60k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 40k:

December 2008:
World of Warcraft: 8 million
Warhammer Online: 500k
Age of Conan: 70k
Vanguard: 40k
Lord of the Rings Online: 40k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 40k

[Falconeer]

Bets were closed as of January 31, sorry guys 'n gals (too easy now to predict Vanguard lean numbers). But your predictions will still be there, although late.

[Azazel]

There was some kind of competition involved?

My Vanguard prediction was and remains this:



They're unfortunately doing nothing to change my mind. And I don't actually hope they fail..

[Trippy]

WoW is now up to 8.5 million and BC has sold 3.5 million copies with 1.9 in NA/AUS and 1.6 million in Europe. Given that they had 2 million NA/AUS customers and 1.5 million in Europe in Jan they've sold BC to >~90% of their NA/AUS and European subscribers. They've been adding a net of .5 million subscribers every two months since September 2006. At that rate they'll break 10.5 million in December unless BC gets released in China by the end of the year in case there'll probably be a bump from that.

[Lantyssa]

WoW is now up to 8.5 million and BC has sold 3.5 million copies with 1.9 in NA/AUS and 1.6 million in Europe. Given that they had 2 million NA/AUS customers and 1.5 million in Europe in Jan they've sold BC to >~90% of their NA/AUS and European subscribers. They've been adding a net of .5 million subscribers every two months since September 2006. At that rate they'll break 10.5 million in December unless BC gets released in China by the end of the year in case there'll probably be a bump from that.

C'mon 11 million.  Mama needs new bragging rights!

[Simond]

I'm beginning to think I may have underestimated LOTRO and overestimated VG. 

[Trouble]

I'm still liking my numbers (except maybe AoC). Is there a prize for this? 

[Falconeer]

Is there a prize for this? 

Bragging rights.
What else could you need on a message board?