Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[WindupAtheist]

2007

WoW:  10,000,000
Warhammer:  250,000
Conan:  200,000
Vanguard:  200,000
EQ1:  125,000
EQ2:  150,000
UO:  155,000
SWG:  50,000

Blizzard will continue to own all.  The new releases will still be ramping up at this point.  Old EQ will continue to take it in the ass from younger sexier versions of itself.  SWG will be put on minimal upkeep and kept as a walking corpse to fill out the Station Pass roster, ala Matrix Online.  Predicting a 20k bump for UO with the new shiny may be overly optimistic, but everyone already knows I'm partisan so blow me.  Also, improbable as it may seem, I just really want to see it get a little bit over EQ2.  Just to imagine Smedley's face.

2008

WoW:  9,000,000
Warhammer:  325,000
Conan:  300,000
Vanguard:  75,000
EQ1:  100,000
EQ2:  115,000
UO:  120,000
SWG:  35,000

Haters will rejoice as WoW begins to show it's age a little, falling to merely a few dozen times the size of the closest competitor on this list.  (Starcraft Online is already development at this point, and Blizzard is sizing itself up for bigger moneyhats.)  Warhammer and Conan will have ramped up to their peaks, while people will have decided Vanguard sucks and left it the way they did EQ2.  Speaking of which, EQ 1 & 2 will continue to decline, but at a slower rate as only the hardcore remain.  UO will resume blundering along losing subs at a relatively slow rate due to it's uniqueness, while SWG will shuffle on as a zombie.

I see decent moderately successful futures for Conan and Warhammer, provided they're decent games, thanks to WoW-attrition and the console market.  But the 300k range is as optimistic as I can get.  Even Final Fantasy XI only got like 650k peak, and it's Final motherfucking Fantasy.  SOE will continue to be fucked.  UO will draw some people back with a graphical and UI upgrade, then basically just bumble around like it always does.  And that's about it.

[SurfD]

Edit: perhaps i should read the FIRST page (god damn, how did I miss that?)

[angry.bob]

December 2007:
- Vanguard: 60k - The days of this shit are years in the past. I'f you're looking forward to this game you're subhuman and should kill yourself
- Lord of the Rings Online: 200k
- PoTBS: 70k
- Warhammer: 2 million - Way more people play GW stuff than people realize. Assuming it's out by Christmas shopping, they'll sell 2 million easy. Personally I think this is lowballing it.
- World of Warcraft: 11 million

December 2008:
- Vanguard: 60k - people who bought this crave the feeling that having your mouth used as a toilet gives. They'll play till they flip the switch on the servers
- Lord of the Rings Online: 500k
- PoTBS: 80k
- Warhammer: 5 million
- World of Warcraft: 8 million - BC turns out to be still not casual enough and yet not grindy enough for OCD subhuman turds to grind their lives to nothing. Also, the people playing to PvP will have much better choices available

[Velorath]

Even Final Fantasy XI only got like 650k peak, and it's Final motherfucking Fantasy. 

Didn't you learn from SWG that it doesn't matter what popular IP you base your MMO on if the game sucks?  Not to mention that as far as the FFXI console market goes, the PS2 version required the purchase of the HDD (and the broadband adapter if you hadn't already bought one for a previous game).  It's not really a good indication of how well MMO's might do on consoles.

[Ironwood]

I don't see WAR ever getting near those numbers.  Yeah, I KNOW how many people actually like Warhammer, but I think they're not really the type to get into a CG of it.

I'm only respectfully disagreeing, tho.  I don't care.

[eldaec]

I'm currently running just below the level of interest needed to buy into WAR.

But I hope to god it doesn't get 2 million subs.

There is not a snowball's chance in hell that GOA can handle Europe's share of 2 million subs.

Actually GOA is a decent sized part of why WAR couldn't challenge WoW in Europe. WoW levels of public exposure on GOA's inadequate customer management and piss poor peak-period network stability would kick in and self limit success in what should be the IP's strongest region.

'More successful that daoc' has to be the realistic ambition. Unless EA really decide to take the marketing and customer service aspects seriously and on a worldwide basis.

[eldaec]

Even Final Fantasy XI only got like 650k peak, and it's Final motherfucking Fantasy. 

Didn't you learn from SWG that it doesn't matter what popular IP you base your MMO on if the game sucks?

Actually SWG taught us exactly the opposite. It's been incredibly successful given its flaws.

How long, exactly, do you think EQ would have lasted with SWG's original combat model?

[Simond]

This looks fun.

Xmas '07

Warhammer Online: Not out yet. (Look at the dates on the E3 cinematic) ;)
Age of Conan: 350K - and about half & half PC/360.
Lord of the Rings Online: 500K. I think, from what I've heard this one could actually be the first half-decent Turbine game since AC, and the license fits better than SWG's ever did.
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 50K tops. Niche, and EVE has the most of this market already. PotC will get the rest.
Vanguard: 100K. And that's being generous. Over half the playerbase will be cursing Sigil and remembering all the things Verant did wrong, but still playing.
World of Warcraft: 10 Million, and the next expansion (Maelstrom + misc) will be 1/2-way complete.

Xmas '08

Warhammer Online: 750K, and launched later than people think. Expect a full-on EA PR blitz on this one, folks.
Age of Conan: 200K and slowly declining.
Lord of the Rings Online: ~350K. Past the peak, but stable.
Pirates of the Burning Sea: Depends on how much has been added - if they follow the CCP method, maybe 75K. If not, dead.
Vanguard: 60K, and SOE will have bought out Sigil by this point.
World of Warcraft: 11 Million, and the third expansion (Northrend) will just have been announced.

[Venkman]

- Warhammer: 2 million - Way more people play GW stuff than people realize. Assuming it's out by Christmas shopping, they'll sell 2 million easy. Personally I think this is lowballing it.

Just to quibble: GW is free. And based on Mark's comments here (where he said "a year since we started testing and a year from launch", I am thinking Holiday 07 is not in the cards. But then I don't really think Holiday sales and MMOGs need to go together. They can help games that are easy sells, but then, if the game is an easy sell, it can sell any time.

What I actually feel has impacted sales more is the redux of E3. Maybe by 08 they'll have hit their stride again though making that a mini-Christmas it was gearing up to be last time. THEN would be when to sell WAR, particularly since I'm sure we won't see another WoW expac until 09.

[eldaec]

- Warhammer: 2 million - Way more people play GW stuff than people realize.

Just to quibble: GW is free.

I think you mean Guild Wars where bob meant Games Workshop?

Because Games Workshop stuff is the very antithesis of free.

[Venkman]

Ah, yea, that makes all the difference actually. Microtransactions ftw!

But then I'd have to ask: if someone is playing Warhammer 40k game mechanic, are they going to want to play a lore-based single-character RPG? We could look to Warcraft and say "yes". But that's really the only example.

[eldaec]

Well, that's why warhammer online should be based on crossing Warhammer Fantasy Battle with Total War and a persistent universe.

We can dream...

(as an aside, the Warhammer Fantasy RPG does good business, and that is probably a better parallel to the what MMORPG producers put on the packaging.)

[Endie]

I said 4.1 million for WoW?  Really?!?  Man, I need to check myself in somewhere for help.

[Ironwood]

Ah, yea, that makes all the difference actually. Microtransactions ftw!

But then I'd have to ask: if someone is playing Warhammer 40k game mechanic, are they going to want to play a lore-based single-character RPG? We could look to Warcraft and say "yes". But that's really the only example.

I asked the same question.  A couple of posts up.  I personally point to 'no'.

[HRose]

Well, that's why warhammer online should be based on crossing Warhammer Fantasy Battle with Total War and a persistent universe.

We can dream...

Really, that has been my "dream mmorpg" for many, many, many years (just based on Stormbringer/Elric instead of Warhammer).

About playing Warhammer miniatures. I got yesterday Dark Crusade and it's exceptional. But I doubt it sold oodles because of its brand.

[Cheddar]

Can I have LoTRO updated? It wil gather 140k by 2008, easy.

[eldaec]

GW people might not play WAR, but happily there is a big contingent of people who would quite like to play GW games, but then see what it costs and think 'bugger this for a game of soldiers'.

Those people might be interested in Warhammer computer games that aren't rubbish (an entirely untapped niche up to this point); though I'm not sure they'd be interested if WAR turns out to be as vanilla as WoW.

[Merusk]

Ah, yea, that makes all the difference actually. Microtransactions ftw!

But then I'd have to ask: if someone is playing Warhammer 40k game mechanic, are they going to want to play a lore-based single-character RPG? We could look to Warcraft and say "yes". But that's really the only example.

I asked the same question.  A couple of posts up.  I personally point to 'no'.

I agree with Ironwood on this one.  WoW adjusted their game ever so slightly with the addition of Hero classes.  That subtle tweak meant the playerbase was more comfortable with the idea of the solo hero (as did the solo campaign where you play as Rexxar.)   I don't think it'd have been as well-recieved if we went from a Starcraft-era RTS to WoW play.

  Hell, there's still people bitching about the difference in mechanics between WoW and WC3.  The part that got them hooked was the game was FUN.

Moving from a squad-based 'nobody special' game to a single-player "army of one" I think you're going to find it needs to be as polished and fun out the door as WoW was.  The question is, will WAR be able to do it. I'm gonna say no, just because of the incredibly short dev cycle.  There's going to be too many unanswered questions, and too many compromises of the one-man-squad-style gameplay GW fans are looking for, and too much group-reliance for the modern MMO'er and WAY too much group reliance for most PvP'ers.

[Nebu]

I already demonstrated how bad I am at this when (during the beta) I claimed that WoW would never top 400k subscribers.  

I'll leave the projections to those of you that enjoy WoW and forcast its success.  You seem more in touch with the tastes of today's gamers.

[Cheddar]

I already demonstrated how bad I am at this when (during the beta) I claimed that WoW would never top 400k subscribers.  

I'll leave the projections to those of you that enjoy WoW and forcast its success.  You seem more in touch with the tastes of today's gamers.

No one, not even Blizzard, predicted 1 million + subs.

[Furiously]

I have used a chart like this in the past.
...

Hope it helps.

PS  Vanguard is in my dead pool for 2008, along with Justin Timberlake and the Spike channel.

I don't think that person got pregnant.

[Falconeer]

I said 4.1 million for WoW?  Really?!?  Man, I need to check myself in somewhere for help.

I can update that for you, if you want.

[Falconeer]

Can I have LoTRO updated? It wil gather 140k by 2008, easy.

Fixed.

[HaemishM]

Ah what the hell, this could be fun.

Xmas '07

Warhammer Online: 150k and rising if it's out
Age of Conan: 150k
Lord of the Rings Online: 100k and falling
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 75k
Vanguard: 25K. Barely hanging on
World of Warcraft: 8 million

Xmas '08

Warhammer Online: 350K
Age of Conan: 200K and slowly declining.
Lord of the Rings Online: 50K.
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 75K
Vanguard: 30K thanks to SOE buying it out and ushering McQuaid back out the same door.
World of Warcraft: 7 Million

[Venkman]

No one, not even Blizzard, predicted 1 million + subs.

I realize that is what they said, but I honestly never bought it. I have no idea what their true projections were, and maybe their 2005 numbers did far exceed that. Or maybe they just used that to excuse the server performance. In any case, consider the money they spent over the time they spent it coupled with the territories they knew they'd be launching into with the partners they had lined up so far before launch. I'd be surprised if they didn't assume 2mil worldwide.

Now, I can see them seriously lowballing North America by itself, given what passed for record-busting prior to that. But this game was programmed for a staggered worldwide launch long before Nov 2004, much more so than I think any MMOG was to that point (and actually, after). VUG exercised a competitive advantage bordering on the unique in this space.

[DataGod]

I would like to revise my 2007 estimates:


Warhammer Online: 780k
Age of Conan: 120k
Lord of the Rings Online: 54k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 146k
Vanguard: 68k
World of Warcraft: 10.3m

Reasoning:

Warhammer online PR/Marketing with backing from Mythic should be in full throttle by Sept 07.  They'll bleed at least 500k subs off of WOW because of expectations of WHO's MMOG potential and boredom with WOW

Age of Conan, starts off with 30-40k initially and slowly grows over time as the gore/pvp crowd gets into it, this number slowly grows through 07.

LOTR Online. Initial spike of LOTR fans and RP'ers and MMO players puts upnumbers of close to 100k, MMO players realize there is no content and the game has no non-mythos related activity also no real PVP, and is inhabited by the kids who just graduated from runescape/toontown and want to RP bilbo.

PotBS, is the dark horse, initial subs are hardcore naval fans and rabid pirate PVP fans, releases at 45-65k and grows throughout the year as MMO players realize how cool the game actually is.

Vanguard initial burst of 97k or 110k subs, eventually drops down to a solid 68k and holds in that range as former EQ players are willing to give Brad and crew another shot.

WOW, 6m US players still, 4.3 are in asia, WOW begins to fudge numbers as players are leeched away. They come out with a monthly "look how great we're doing" PR as well as add some freebies to maintain accounts....after all if there are no us players to buy gold who will the 2.2m gold farmers sell GP to.


2008 estimates:

Warhammer Online: 1.8m
Age of Conan: 70k
Lord of the Rings Online: 35k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 800k
Vanguard: 72k
World of Warcraft: 8.3m


WHO: Population is mostly US/EU and Asian PVP'ers, gold farmers realizing that GF is unhealthy in this game mostly avoid it, large well organized guilds with long standing fueds dominate this game

Age of Conan, hype dies, but still has a hardcore conan wannabe following

LotR Online even the kids moving from maplestory to LOTR will want something different eventually...

POTBS, continues to gain in popularity, mostly through innovation.

Vanguard, retains its following.....however EQ is now at a population of....like 10 people

WOW, decline is inevitable so is innovation, and so is the movable feast of games, 4.4m hardcore US/EU/Aussie Raiders finally getting thier tier 5 are now starting to wonder why thier guild forums are so dead and the threads about PotBS and WHO are so active....3.8m asian players, 3.0m gold farming bots, China begins a crackdown due to currency destabilization associated with WOW.

[Lantyssa]

December 2007:

Warhammer Online - 200k
Age of Conan - 200k
Vanguard - 100k
Lord of the Rings Online - 300k
Pirates of the Burning Sea - 125k
World of Warcraft - 11m

December 2008:

Warhammer Online - 175k
Age of Conan - 175k
Vanguard - 75k
Lord of the Rings Online - 200k
Pirates of the Burning Sea - 100k
World of Warcraft - 13m

[geldonyetich]

December 2007:

Warhammer Online - 50k
Age of Conan - 25k
Vanguard - 15k
LOTRO - 100k
Pirates of the Burning Sea - 10k
World of Warcraft - 3m

December 2008:

MMORPGs considered obsolete by general game development community, the remaining ones out or being made all considered to cater to small 'niche' markets only.

...

Doom Doom Doom!

[Falconeer]

I'll pretend to take you seriously, Geldon, but I hate you for predicting less WoW subs than me.

[geldonyetich]

No worries, Geldon resentment is in style any year.

[Xuri]

December 2007
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 75k
Age of Conan: 200k
Vanguard: 200k
Warhammer Online: 250k
Lord of the Rings Online: 300k
World of Warcraft: 12m

December 2008
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 40k
Warhammer Online: 150k
Lord of the Rings Online: 200k
Vanguard: 250k
Age of Conan: 300k
World of Warcraft: 15m

[UnSub]

Let's see how wrong I can be...

Also, I'm assuming all these unlaunched games actually come out during these time periods and aren't shuffled back into late 2007 / 2008. Another assumption - that these games don't really really suck at launch.

December 2007
Warhammer Online: 150 k
Age of Conan: 100 k
LOTRO: 100 k
PotBS: 20 k
Vanguard: 60 k
WoW: 8 million
CoH/V: 170 k

The Burning Crusade keeps players involved in WoW. Extremely unfavourable early reviews of Vanguard keep casual players out while hardcore players test the waters and maybe find EQ wasn't as fun as they remember it. LOTRO attracts a good number of players out of WoW on the name alone. PotBS stands out as being too different to really grab players leaving WoW and only grabs the naval fans at launch. Warhammer beats out Conan on the strength of its name. CoH/V show some declines, but the core player base remains steady pending several free updates.

Not mentioned: the whole heap of niche MMOGs coming out that will likely strip available MMOG players from going to one of the big name launches. Also: 2007 shows some great single player games coming out that may attract players out of the MMOG genre.

December 2008
Warhammer Online: 190 k
Age of Conan: 150 k
LOTRO: 100 k
PotBS: 65 k
Vanguard: 40 k
WoW: 6 million
CoH/V: 160 k

WoW remains king, but loses players to other, newer games, especially out of North America. Warhammer and Conan grow and announce expansions for mid- to late 2008, with Conan unable to catch up to Warhammer's early lead at this point. LOTRO doesn't hold players who have played WoW, who feel they are doing the same things again but in a different universe. PotBS builds up strong word of mouth and starts getting new players interested in seeing something different. Vangard attracts the truly hardcore and that's it, creating a community that would make "Lord of the Flies" look like Disneyland to new players. CoH/V shows some declines but continues to surprise with the strength of player commitment it shows.

Now, I have to admit I'm lowballing my numbers for both dates because I feel that there is so much competition out there in 2007 (for both MMOGs and single-player games) that lots of players are goign to be attracted into spending their dollars elsewhere, or won't hang in a MMOG "to get to the fun part" because there are so many alternatives out there.

[Strazos]

December 2007

Warhammer Online: 115k
Age of Conan: 78k
Lord of the Rings Online: 132k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 76k
Vanguard: 55k
World of Warcraft: Too Fucking Many

Warhammer, assuming it has a stable launch, will garner a decent number of subs, assuming it makes it out the door in time for 2007. I am lowballing it because it's slated to release so late in the year. Age of Conan I put a bit low because it's not exactly a "hot" IP, nor will it have the huge media blitz machine some other games will have backing them. Lord of the Rings Online spikes to almost 200k on release, but quickly starts to see heavy losses as far too many gamers not only don't care about the IP, but also suffer from a strong "Been There, Done That" syndrome with nothing new to keep them interested. Pirates of the Burning Sea is really coming out of left field with its different historical setting. Also, it's going to get overshadowed and overlooked (big time) by other, bigger releases. However, word will start to circulate that there's something of worth there if the game doesn't get rushed out the door before it's done. Vanguard gets tossed not out the door, but out of a 4th story window FAR before it is done. With no parachute and only Sony to catch them down below. Initially the game sells very well, perhaps above 250k boxes, but then the numbers dive faster than a Peregrine Falcon when most people realize they've already played this game before 6 years ago, and it has not held up well at all. These players probably mostly return to WoW, who still has so many subs that I don't even care to think of a number.

December 2008

Warhammer Online: 236k
Age of Conan: 111k
Lord of the Rings Online: 103k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: 107k
Vanguard: 37k
World of Warcraft: 6.2m

Warhammer has a good release, and steadily picks up steam throughout 2008. Either that, or it's DOA and I'm way over the mark. Age of Conan slowly but surely picks up subs, assuming Funcom has learned something from AO. The IP doesn't draw too many people, but the gritty gameplay does. Lord of the Rings Online finally starts to stabilize just over 100k, and it populated by a fair amount of newcomers who were not drawn in by Warcraft's IP, gameplay, or general look. Also, they manage to hold on to quite a number of WoW refugees who stay simply because, all things being equal, they perfer the Rings IP to Warcraft. Unfortunately, the game has quite a number of hardcore, neck-bearded lore-freaks who singlehandedly keep away a portion of potential subs who simply don't feel like dealing with that brand of bullshit. Assuming a decent launch and dev support for the game, word is really starting to get around that Pirates has something different going for it. Lots of people stay because pirates are cool, they love to bomb other ships, and they couldn't stand to leave and no longer be able to constantly go "ARRR!" in chat. Vanguard is now on life support, courtesy of Sony. The few who stay are the ones who managed to play through the crap from day one and can't stand to leave their phat loot and leet characters behind. They also hold out hope for The Vision. Also, servers have been condensed down to about 7. People really hate all the slow travel, even with the lauded encounter system (which turns out to be really fucking stupid BTW). Warcraft, believe it or not, is really starting to hemorrhage. Not necessarily to other MMOs, but people are leaving in droves for one reason or another. The expansion sold a metric fuckton of copies, but people are starting to bore of the same old crap. A couple more class overhauls do nothing else but piss people off. Still, the game manages to spawn quite a number of silly memes that make their way around the internet. On the horizon for WoW is a South America launch, which should really bring in some cash. Australia still gets the shaft, damn kiwis.

[Cheddar]

Too bad we cannot bet post count.  Now THAT would be fun! 

Unless Stray plays.  He has a billion posts!  AND IT NEVER STOPS!

[Venkman]

I actually like the "107k" and "136k" predictions. That's some pretty tight estimating. I'd be happy to be near a rounded-up or down 100k :)