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Author Topic: Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**  (Read 48699 times)
Falconeer
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on: January 02, 2007, 03:49:58 PM

Just 2 months ago, in this topic a prediction/betting game came up. It got average to low popularity, and confusion ruled so some predicted about December 2007 while some other about December 2008.

I'd recap the whole thing here for your loins pleasure. I'd say both categories should apply at this point, meaning December 2007 AND December 2008. No need to say spot on predictions on Dec 2008 are worth way more kudos than those for 2007.

So, you are supposed to cast your prediction on how many subscriptions will these 6 games have as of December 2007 and December 2008 (this means two sets of predictions). Tha games being: Warhammer Online, Age of Conan, Lord of the Rings Online, Pirates of the Burning Sea, Vanguard and World of Warcraft. Those are 5 soon to be released games plus the paradigm, the milestone, the subscription king of them all.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RECAP of *actual* (?) active subscriptions as December 2007 (estimates, so in progress):

Warhammer Online: Not Yet Released.
Age of Conan: Not Yet Released.
Vanguard: 30k
Lord of the Rings: 250k
Pirates of the Burning Sea: Not Yet Released.
World of Warcraft: 9,3 M.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Bets (off as January 31th 2007):

Threat Level:
Lime Green = 1+ millions subs
Green = 400k to 999k subs
Yellow = 200k to 399k subs
Orange = 100k to 199kk subs
Red = less than 100k subs







Bets for December 2007:




Delayed: Warhammer Online (ACTUAL: Not Yet Released. See you next Year.)

*****-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****
The winners are:

*Simond: Not Out Yet*
*Trouble: Not Out Yet*
*Eldaec: Not Out Yet*



Runners up:

No Runners Up!

*****---------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****

The bets:

Shapechanger: 2,5 millions
Angry.bob: 2 millions
Darniaq: 1 million
Modern Angel: 1 million

Datagod: 780k
Riggswolfe: 600k
Falconeer: 500k
Sairon: 500k
Evangolis: 500k
Damijin: 450k
Stray: 400k

Soln: 350k
WindUpAtheist: 250k
Xuri: 250k
Lantyssa: 200k

Endie: 180k
Andar: 150k   
Waylander: 150k
HaemishM: 150k
Unsub: 150k
Comstar: 120k
Strazos: 115k
HRose: 100k

Geldonyetich: 50k
Eldaec: -
Merusk: -
Simond: -
Trouble: -


Delayed: Age of Conan (ACTUAL: Not Yet Released. See you next Year.)

Modern Angel: 750k
Darniaq: 600k
Riggswolfe: 500k
Shapechanger: 450k
Sairon: 400k
Trouble: 400k

Simond: 350k
Falconeer: 250k
Merusk: 250k
Evangolis: 210k
Stray: 200k
WindUpAtheist: 200k
Lanyssa: 200k
Xuri: 200k
Soln: 200k

HaemishM: 150k
Damijin: 125k
Endie: 120k
Datagod: 120k
HRose: 100k
Eldaec: 100k
Unsub: 100k

Andar: 80k
Waylander: 80k
Strazos: 78k
Comstar: 70k
Geldonyetich: 25k

Angry.bob: -



Vanguard (ACTUAL: 30k )

Falconeer: 400k
Darniaq: 300k
Merusk: 200k
WindUpAtheist: 200k
Xuri: 200k
Soln: 200k

Shapechanger: 160k
Modern Angel: 120k
Evangolis: 115k
Eldaec: 100k
Damijin: 100k
Simond: 100k
Lantyssa: 100k
Riggswolfe: 100k

Endie: 90k
Waylander: 90k
HRose: 80k
Sairon: 80k
Trouble: 75k
Stray: 70k
Datagod: 68k
Angry.bob: 60k
Unsub: 60k
Strazos: 55k
Andar: 50k
Comstar: 50k
HaemishM: 25k
Geldonyetich: 15k



Lord of the Rings Online (ACTUAL: 250k )

Shapechanger: 800k
Simond: 500k
Darniaq: 400k

Endie: 300k
Modern Angel: 300k
Lantyssa: 300k
Xuri: 300k
Trouble: 300k
Evangolis: 220k
HRose: 200k
Merusk: 200k
Falconeer: 200k
Stray: 200k
Angry.bob: 200k

Eldaec: 150k
Strazos: 132k
Waylander: 125k
Sairon: 100k
HaemishM: 100k
Geldonyetich: 100k
Unsub: 100k
Soln: 100k

Damijin: 80k
Datagod: 54k
Comstar: 50k
Andar: 20k

WindUpAtheist: -
Riggswolfe: -

Delayed: Pirates of the Burning Sea (ACTUAL: Not Yet Released. See you next Year.)

Shapechanger: 450k
Datagod: 146k
Lantyssa: 125k
Darniaq: 100k

Evangolis: 85k
Strazos: 76k
HaemishM: 75k
Xuri: 75k
Waylander: 70k
Sairon: 70k
Angry.bob: 70k
Simond: 50k
Soln: 50k
Falconeer: 30k
Damijin: 30k
Trouble: 30k
Comstar: 20k
Modern Angel: 20k
Unsub: 20k
Geldonyetich: 10k

Stray: -
Andar: -
Endie: -
HRose: -
Eldaec: -
Merusk: -
WindUpAtheist: -
Riggswolfe: -






Final! World of Warcraft (ACTUAL: 9,3 M )

*****-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****
The winners are:

*Comstar: 9 millions*
*Riggswolfe: 9 millions*



Runners up:

WindUpAtheist: 10 millions
Simond: 10 millions
Trouble: 10 millions
Soln: 10 millions
*****-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------*****


The bets:

HRose: 12 millions
Modern Angel: 12 millions
Xuri: 12 millions
Angry.bob: 11 millions
Lantyssa: 11 millions
Datagod: 10,3 millions
WindUpAtheist: 10 millions
Simond: 10 millions
Trouble: 10 millions
Soln: 10 millions
***Comstar: 9 millions***  Gratz!
***Riggswolfe: 9 millions*** Gratz!
Damijin: 8.5 millions
Eldaec: 8.5 millions
Andar: 8 millions
Darniaq: 8 millions
HaemishM: 8 millions
Unsub: 8 millions
Evangolis: 8 millions
Waylander: 7.5k
Sairon: 7 millions
Shapechanger: 6 millions
Falconeer: 5 millions
Endie: 4.1 millions
Geldonyetich: 3 millions

Stray: -
Merusk: -
Strazos: -







-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bets for
December 2008:

Warhammer Online

Angry.bob: 5 millions
Shapechanger: 3,5 millions
Datagod: 1,8 millions
Modern Angel: 1,5 millions
Darniaq: 1.5 millions
Trouble: 1,5 millions
Arthur Parker: 1 million
Falconeer: 1 million
Riggswolfe: 1 million

Evangolis: 930k
Simond: 750k
Sairon: 700k
Damijin: 650k
Soln: 500k
Comstar: 450k

Eldaec: 350k
Waylander: 350k
HaemishM: 350k
WindUpAtheist: 325k
HRose: 300k
Strazos: 236k

Unsub: 190k
Lantyssa: 175k
Stray: 150k
Xuri: 150k

Cheddar: 45k


Age of Conan

Sairon: 600k
Trouble: 600k
Modern Angel: 500k
Riggswolfe: 400k

Shapechanger: 350k
Soln: 350k
Darniaq: 300k
WindUpAtheist: 300k
Xuri: 300k
HRose: 250k
Evangolis: 240k
Falconeer: 200k
Simond: 200k
HaemishM: 200k

Lantyssa: 175k
Stray: 150k
Damijin: 150k
Unsub: 150k
Strazos: 111k

Arthur Parker: 90k
Datagod: 70k
Eldaec: 40k
Waylander: 40k
Cheddar: 35k

Comstar: -
Angry.bob: -


Vanguard

Falconeer: 300k
Xuri: 250k

Darniaq: 200k
Soln: 200k

Evangolis: 110k
Damijin: 80k
WindUpAtheist: 75k
Lantyssa: 75k
Datagod: 72k
Modern Angel: 70k
Shapechanger: 65k
Arthur Parker: 60k
Cheddar: 60k
Stray: 60k
Waylander: 60k
Angry.bob: 60k
Simond: 60k
Comstar: 55k
HRose: 50k
Trouble: 50k
Eldaec: 40k
Sairon: 40k
Unsub: 40k
Strazos: 37k
HaemishM: 30k
Riggswolfe: 25k



Lord of the Rings Online

Shapechanger: 550k
Angry.bob: 500k
Modern Angel: 400k

Simond: 350k
Trouble: 300k
Evangolis: 250k
Darniaq: 200k
Lantyssa: 200k
Xuri: 200k

Falconeer: 150k
Cheddar: 140k
Strazos: 103k
HRose: 100k
Unsub: 100k
Soln: 100k

WindUpAtheist: 90k
Sairon: 80k
Waylander: 75k
Eldaec: 50k
Damijin: 50k
HaemishM: 50k
Stray: 40k
Datagod: 35k
Comstar: 30k

Arthur Parker: -
Riggswolfe: -

Pirates of the Burning Sea

Datagod: 800k
Shapechanger: 350k
Evangolis: 130k
Comstar: 120k
Strazos: 107k
Darniaq: 100k
Sairon: 100k
Lantyssa: 100k

Angry.bob: 80k
Waylander: 75k
Simond: 75k
HaemishM: 75k
Damijin: 70k
Trouble: 70k
Unsub: 65k
WindUpAtheist: 40k
Soln: 50k
Xuri: 40k
Modern Angel: 20k
Falconeer: 20k

Arthur Parker: -
Cheddar: -
Stray: -
HRose: -
Eldaec: -
Riggswolfe: -

World of Warcraft

Xuri: 15 millions
Lantyssa: 13 millions
Modern Angel: 12 millions
Simond: 11 millions
Trouble: 11 millions
HRose: 10 millions
Comstar: 10 millions
Soln: 10 millions
Cheddar: 9 millions
Stray: 9 millions
Eldaec: 9 millions
WindUpAtheist: 9 millions
Waylander: 9 millions
Evangolis: 9 millions
Riggswolfe: 8,5 millions
Datagod: 8,3 millions
Darniaq: 7 millions
Damijin: 7 millions
Sairon: 7 millions
HaemishM: 7 millions
Strazos: 6,2 millions
Unsub: 6 millions
Angry.bob: 5 millions
Shapechanger: 4,5 millions
Falconeer: 4 millions

Arthur Parker: -




Betting ended on January 30th 2007.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2009, 06:55:01 AM by Falconeer »

damijin
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Reply #1 on: January 02, 2007, 03:55:16 PM

I put this in the other thread as soon as you started this one, but I might as well get the ball rolling.

December 2007:
- Vanguard: 100k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 80k
- PoTBS: 30k
- Warhammer: 450k
- World of Warcraft: Oodles. (8.5m)

December 2008:
- Vanguard: 80k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 50k
- PoTBS: 70k
- Warhammer: 650k
- World of Warcraft: A little less than oodles, on account of being old as fuck. (7m)
schild
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Reply #2 on: January 02, 2007, 03:56:54 PM

This thread needs a list of every MMOG and it's "fake" release date. As in the one that's quoted everwhere. What if Huxley comes out this year? Should WoW even be included? Etc. etc. If you're gonna do it, do it right.
damijin
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Reply #3 on: January 02, 2007, 03:59:33 PM

This thread needs a list of every MMOG and it's "fake" release date. As in the one that's quoted everwhere. What if Huxley comes out this year? Should WoW even be included? Etc. etc. If you're gonna do it, do it right.

I agree, I was too lazy to look for all that shit so I just copy-pasted darniaq's list and changed the numbers.
Arthur_Parker
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Reply #4 on: January 02, 2007, 04:00:46 PM

I think it would read better if you grouped it by game not by person.
Falconeer
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Reply #5 on: January 02, 2007, 04:06:29 PM

The original idea was to bet just on 5 titles and for December 2008, cause 2007 was too early for things like Warhammer. The original 5 were Warhammer, LoTRO, Vanguard, World of Warcraft and Age of Conan. I gathered the sparse info from the older messy topic where everyone went his/her way.

Of course we could redo it from scratch or just trash not relevant/consistent info. Is it worth it? Should we add Huxley for example, or Aion, or Tabula Rasa or Lum's game? It's ok for me... just let me know.

(By the way, on a different forum 4 years ago I played a similar game, that was about predicting launch dates for EQ2, WoW, City of Heroes and Horizons. The fake release dates are a game in itself)

Falconeer
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Reply #6 on: January 02, 2007, 04:07:00 PM

I think it would read better if you grouped it by game not by person.

Sweet. Give me 2 minutes..

stray
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Reply #7 on: January 02, 2007, 04:07:07 PM

Uh, I still stick by my first predictions. That second group of numbers I listed were in the context of some hypothetical situation or something. Forgot the actual thread.
eldaec
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Reply #8 on: January 02, 2007, 04:14:25 PM

'07

WoW : 8.5M
Lotr : 150k
EVE : 150k
Age of Conan : 100k
Vanguard : 100k
EQ1 : 100k
EQ2 : 100k
CoX : 80k
UO : 50k
SWG : hanging on by it's fingernails
WAR : Not yet released (I almost feel bad writing that knowing how many Mythic types are in the forum this week)


'08

WoW : 9.0M
WAR : 350k
At least one game not listed, I hope : 250k
EVE : 150k
EQ2 : 70k
Lotr : 50k
CoX : 50k
EQ1 : 50k
Age of Conan : 40k
Vanguard : 40k
UO : WUA
SWG : Dead


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Righ
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Reply #9 on: January 02, 2007, 04:22:47 PM

A/S/L?

If we're gonna do this, we need SirBruce back, with charts.

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WayAbvPar
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Reply #10 on: January 02, 2007, 04:27:16 PM

A/S/L?

If we're gonna do this, we need SirBruce back, with charts.


We really don't.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
WindupAtheist
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Reply #11 on: January 02, 2007, 04:31:40 PM


"You're just a dick who quotes himself in his sig."  --  Schild
"Yeah, it's pretty awesome."  --  Me
HRose
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Reply #12 on: January 02, 2007, 04:32:40 PM

Making decent predictions under those conditions is impossible:

1- You can make a reasonable guess for games three months after launch. An average number of subs the game will likely get. But a fixed month is HARD, as release dates determine the curve the game will have.

2- Console market is LARGELY unpredictable. Pitch black.

But I like the game, so:


Bets for December 2007:


HRose
- Tabula Rasa: 250k
- Warhammer: not out, or not measurable due to close release (50/100k)
- Age of Conan: 100k (climbing to 150/200k if released enough months before Dec)
- Lord of the Rings Online: 200k MAX
- Vanguard: 50/80k
- WoW: around 12M
- Eve: 210k
- CoX: 140k


Bets for December 2008:


HRose
- Tabula Rasa: 300k
- Warhammer: 250/300k
- Age of Conan: 150/250k
- Lord of the Rings Online: 100k
- Vanguard: 50k
- WoW: around 10M
- Eve: 170k
- CoX: 90k

« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 04:48:56 PM by HRose »

-HRose / Abalieno
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WindupAtheist
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Reply #13 on: January 02, 2007, 04:38:21 PM

This thread needs more charts.  Someone unban Bruce.

"You're just a dick who quotes himself in his sig."  --  Schild
"Yeah, it's pretty awesome."  --  Me
schild
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Reply #14 on: January 02, 2007, 04:40:21 PM

No.
Falconeer
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Reply #15 on: January 02, 2007, 04:53:48 PM

I fixed the whole thing according to Arthur Parker suggestion. I trashed Tazelbain and Waylander predictions as they were on a single game. They are of course more than welcomed to submit a more compliant set of predictions. I chose 6 games as of now, but I ask for your help agian here: should we Gods n' Heroes, Huxley, Tabula Rasa or anything else? Personally, I think we are more than fine with this, adding more would get too complicated and basicallyless fun, but that's just me.
Finally, it'd be nice if those who already cast their predictions but forgot one or more of the chosen game could fix his/her bet by filling in the missing numbers.

Oh, fake release dates incoming...

HRose
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Reply #16 on: January 02, 2007, 04:56:33 PM

I'd propose this alternatively:

[name of game] [subs four months after launch] [ longer term average] [trend in 2008 (up/down arrow)]

I think that would give a better ideas about people's opinion and also deliver more reliable predictions.

-HRose / Abalieno
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Signe
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Reply #17 on: January 02, 2007, 05:02:23 PM

I have used a chart like this in the past.



Hope it helps.

PS  Vanguard is in my dead pool for 2008, along with Justin Timberlake and the Spike channel.

My Sig Image: hath rid itself of this mortal coil.
Falconeer
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Reply #18 on: January 02, 2007, 05:14:01 PM

I'd propose this alternatively:

[name of game] [subs four months after launch] [ longer term average] [trend in 2008 (up/down arrow)]

I think that would give a better ideas about people's opinion and also deliver more reliable predictions.

Ugh... that gets out of the modest scope of my capabilities.
Plus we'd lose the thrill of the Christmas deadline and yearly commendation event <grin>.
 

WayAbvPar
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Reply #19 on: January 02, 2007, 05:15:58 PM

Signe wins the chart wars. Now can I get a guarantee to never see the words cervical and mucus in the same thread EVAR AGAIN?

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

Who the hell taught you how to write? Fuck, that sentence is like internet transmitted face-attacking knives. Jesus. schild
Venkman
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Reply #20 on: January 02, 2007, 05:40:09 PM

Nice work Falconeer. Here's some more numbers:

Age of Conan
2007- 600k
2008- 300k
Merusk
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Reply #21 on: January 02, 2007, 05:52:54 PM

Conan: 200-250k
Vanguard: 150-200k
TR:  Not this year, kiddies
LoTR: 150-200k

Signe wins the chart wars. Now can I get a guarantee to never see the words cervical and mucus in the same thread EVAR AGAIN?

This is the intraweb. We can make no guarantees.  Besides, what'd you THINK you were playing around in, water?
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 05:54:29 PM by Merusk »

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Falconeer
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Reply #22 on: January 02, 2007, 06:17:25 PM

Merusk,

Are you casting your predictions for dec 2007 or 2008? Guess 2007 given your comment on TR but I want to be sure.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 06:20:19 PM by Falconeer »

damijin
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Reply #23 on: January 02, 2007, 06:24:20 PM

TR:  Not this year, kiddies

If she doesn't make it out the door this year, I don't think she's going to make it at all.

Oh, and since I didn't put in Age of Conan for my original list, could you add:

2007:
AoC - 125,000
2008:
AoC - 150,000

Thanks!
Venkman
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Reply #24 on: January 02, 2007, 06:34:55 PM

Agreed. I've long given TR only a 50% chance of launching at all. It's got some cool ideas, but those cool ideas are better suited when launched from a position of strength.
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Reply #25 on: January 02, 2007, 06:52:33 PM

I'll bite.

2007

Warhammer - 1mil
Conan - 750k
Vanguard - 120k
LotRO - 300k
Burning Sea - 20k
WoW - 12mil

2008

Warhammer - 1.5mil
Conan - 500k
Vanguard - 70k
LotRO - 400k
Burning Sea - 20k
WoW - 12mil

Few things at work. WAR and Conan are both jumping into the console market so I think they'd get solid numbers from that alone. As well, there are alot of the two year WoW players who are starting to grind themselves out on the game; I expect alot of the older players to meander through BC and then shift to WAR and Conan. LOTRO will get better numbers as time wears on because  NDA. In the meantime, WoW will continue to eat everything alive; I'm still amazed whenever I go through Tanaris or wherever at the number of first timers asking questions. It's a behemoth and not going anywhere.
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Reply #26 on: January 02, 2007, 06:53:52 PM

Merusk,

Are you casting your predictions for dec 2007 or 2008? Guess 2007 given your comment on TR but I want to be sure.

Yeah 2007.

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I really like the cocks. - Lantyssa
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Sairon
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Reply #27 on: January 02, 2007, 07:04:26 PM

2007

Warhammer - 500k
Conan - 400k
Vanguard - 80k
LotRO - 100k
Burning Sea - 70k
WoW - 7 mil

2008

Warhammer - 700k
Conan - 600k
Vanguard - 40k
LotRO - 80k
Burning Sea - 100k
WoW - 7 mil

Warhammer comes strong out of the gates and will take some customers from the WoW crowd and various other MMOs, same goes for Conan. I believe that they will continue to see a flow of new customers, mainly from WoW. I predict people will find that TBC is offering nothing really new to them and start to burn out. However, I think that they will continue to draw in new people to the genre. Vanguard will crash because it has a competition that is to tough for such a mediocre game, and it doesn't separate it self enough from the crowd. The same goes for LotRO, but the ip will help them some. Burning Sea is niche enough and I think there's room for growth because of that.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2007, 07:07:30 PM by Sairon »
Comstar
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Reply #28 on: January 02, 2007, 07:04:44 PM

I think some of my 2007 predictions are low now, but I'll let them stand.

December 2008:
- Vanguard: 55K
- Lord of the Rings Online: 30K
- PoTBS: 120K
- Warhammer: 450K
- World of Warcraft: 10 milliona

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Reply #29 on: January 02, 2007, 07:44:21 PM

'07

WoW : 7.5M
Lotr : 125k
EVE : 130k
Age of Conan : 80k
Vanguard : 90k
EQ1 : 200k
EQ2 : 100k
CoX : 80k
UO : 90k
SWG : 60k
WAR : 150k
POTBS: 70k


'08

WoW : 9.0M
WAR : 250-350k
EVE : 150k
EQ1: 150k
POTBS: 90k
EQ2 : 80k
Lotr : 75k
CoX : 50k
EQ1 : 50k
Age of Conan : 40k
Vanguard : 60k
UO : 75k
SWG : Cancelled

Lords of the Dead
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Numtini
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Reply #30 on: January 02, 2007, 08:09:02 PM

Quote
I have used a chart like this in the past.

And people here think Vanguard has a grind. (Could that thing take any longer to beep in the morning?)

WOW will continue to grow, but more slowly.

On the new releases? War and Conan have the potential to do well. Good flexible licenses (Star Wars would be an example of a bad inflexible license) and simply being on a console is guaranteed to improve adoption. But they are also the two games closest to one another and have the potential to cannibalize that market. The next question on that angle is how console gamers will react to the level of bugs

Maybe 500k between the two? And the entire rest of the batch, nothing over 50k? Really I see a lot of flops.

If you can read this, you're on a board populated by misogynist assholes.
Falconeer
Terracotta Army
Posts: 10077

a polyamorous pansexual genderqueer born and living in the wrong country


WWW
Reply #31 on: January 02, 2007, 08:24:29 PM

Maybe 500k between the two? And the entire rest of the batch, nothing over 50k? Really I see a lot of flops.

Uhmm...?!

?SYNTAX ERROR
READY.
|

hal
Terracotta Army
Posts: 835

Damn kids, get off my lawn!


Reply #32 on: January 02, 2007, 08:42:31 PM

Ill have to say I also see war and Conan in there. Surviving and Maybe thriving (or not) and the others not so much with the aside there is a lot of buzz about vanguard so i am thinking it may sell a lot of boxes. But keep subscribers? I really don't see that. Of course I have been wrong before.

I started with nothing, and I still have most of it

I'm not a complete idiot... Some parts are still on backorder.
damijin
Terracotta Army
Posts: 448


WWW
Reply #33 on: January 02, 2007, 10:21:10 PM

Should average out the numbers at the end of the month to get F13's mean opinion of each game.

That's a pun  angry
Grimwell
Developers
Posts: 748

[Redacted]


Reply #34 on: January 02, 2007, 10:49:12 PM

I'm waiting for geldon to put in his numbers. He's the bellwether for accuracy. :)

Grimwell
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