Who DOES Blizzard need to fear?

[Venkman]

A few conversations of late have been about particular games coming that post a threat to WoW. This topic picked up steam again because of the announced delay in the release of the expansion. Some feel Vanguard poses a thread. Others feel Warhammer Online (WHO or WAR, depending on your mood) does.

I personally doubt either will strip away a significant portion of the WoW accounts. Players, yes, but these players will do what they did when they jumped ship from UO and EQ too: continue to pay for their account. Maybe a few months thereafter they'll slink back or decide to close the book entirely, but I don't think Blizzard will feel a pinch. I expect them to say what SOE did when DAoC started taking off: "we're happy for the competition. it's brought more folks into the genre and therefore to us". Of course, I also expect them to very soon stop reporting their numbers in a way that is easily disseminated, maybe shut down the /who all command and therefore drive out those folks like WarcraftRealms and PARC who data mine for everything from number of hours played to favorite hair style. Public company after all, gotta protect the perception of the IP.

I, also, actually think Blizzard has more to fear from the fragmentation of the genre itself with the rise of casual-MMOs (yea, they exist), those focusing on today's tween players, and those environments from which strong communities, and then games themselves, have spawned. But that's not something they need chew fingernails on anytime soon.

What do you think?

[Morat20]

I think Blizzard has Blizzard itself to fear. The only competition I can imagine them facing is another Blizzard-made MMORPG. World of Starcraft or something. Even then, I suspect they'd be smart enough to push in a different enough direction to minimize cross-over appeal. Like CCP, I suspect they see no reason to fragment the market.

Now, sooner or later someone will come along with something new that'll be the next big thing and burn MMORPGs away as last year's hot item. Got no idea what, though.

From Diku MMORPGS? No competition now, none on the horizon. For something else -- a virtual-world style game? Maybe a little -- but if there's a significant number of players jumping to play a virtual world, I suspect Blizzard will up and create one of their own when the time comes.

[HaemishM]

No one. Seriously, they don't have anyone to fear. No one has the IP, the limitless budget or the publisher support to pull it off... at least no one who is actually serious about MMOG's. Microsoft? Fuck no, they've been burned too much in the past. Sony? Too busy trying to expand your orifice to include a $600 paperweight DVD drive. EA? Completely inept to the point that they had to buy a company to produce an MMOG with a chance of making a splash.

[Nija]

I don't think they have anything to fear for another 4-5 years. The game(s) that they should fear haven't even been announced yet. I don't know anything about them - nobody does - but nothing in development now has a prayer.

Then again they're probably using their incredible income to start another mass-multiplayer project of some type, so when something worth subscribing to shows up they'll be in the process of rolling their wow players into world of starcraft.

[SnakeCharmer]

They could fart away 250K subs and not blink.  In the end, my humble opinion is that Blizzards own worst enemy is Blizzard themselves - victims of their own success.  Whether they get overly cocky, lackidaisical, whatever.  From what I've seen and know of, there isn't anything on the horizon for the next 2-3 years that looks like any sort of WoW killer.  They're just rehashes of a tired genre.  Why would people play Vangard, when they can get a richer, more polished, better version of WoW?  Warhammer?  They all are just new, buggier versions of WoW: elves, ogres, gnomes, swords.

Bioware has the biggest chance to put a sizeable dent in WoW sub numbers, and they're probably the only people that will, unless of course you're looking at 5-10 other MMO's total pull of WoW subs being enough to do something.

For me to buy a box these days, it has to be:
1) Different
2) Polished
3) Fun

BioWare is the only company that stands out that can hit wish no. 2, who knows if they can hit 1 and 3.

[andar]

Blizzard should fear themselves, and their increasingly lazy development cycles.
They should be afraid of the suits getting the idea that, hey, TBC, the expansion, makes them more money that patches, and the patches are so slow anyways that people are used to long waits for new stuff, so why not throw out the idea of the "free" (though it's obviously not) 'content patch' all together and instead pump out more boxed expansions with reskinned monsters and more bizarre looking loot.  We don't even have to change the gameplay because those suckers will eat it all up anyways.  They are addicts, we are the new tobacco industry.         Ok, they wouldn't actually say that out loud.

Blizzard should fear the players spreading dissent.  Blizzard should fear for the day that all those players who in reality loathe the drudgery of the game actually decide to cancel their subscription. 

Blizzard doesn't have to fear for any of these things though. 
We should have a Marxist MMO revolution.

[Bix]

If I'm Blizz I wouldn't want to lose 250K folks.  They have no competition at the moment, and it doesn't seem like anyone on the horizon either.  However I think there is an odd MMO cutomer out there the "floater".  These folks jump from game to game because nothing new has come out in a while.  If I'm Blizzard I want to suck those folks back into WOW with the BC release.

Bix

[tazelbain]

A WoW clone with an equally as polished RMT system.
Compare pre-RMT Puzzle Pirates to post-RMT Puzzle Pirates.
A post-RMT WoW would render the term "money hats" obsolete.

[Modern Angel]

Buzzing around all the WoW boards that I do a game like WAR (not neccessarily WAR itself) has a chance to get a good chunk of subscribers. There are alot of people who love MMOG pvp as initially presented by Blizzard but hate the raid game, honor system and class issues that go along with it. I'd say WAR gets good numbers: they have a strong IP and they're at least saying the right things. Execution? Who the fuck can say right now? But there's not going to be a WoW killer. It's the ultimate refinement of Diku. We can trash it or not but people love that shit. I'm not certain where that particular flavor of MMOG can go.

[Yegolev]

I started to read the replies, but I don't really need to right now.

Blizzard will fail because WoW will get old and comfortable or intolerable, which will be some time from now, and because the current set of WoW players will eventually turn into us.  Probably about the time WoW is ten years old is when it will look pretty ragged in the current wowtard's eyes.  Everyone except the Neo-WUAs will have moved on to something nichey.  These games do not exist today, the nichey ones that will bleed WoW like dozens of tiny leeches.  They will be created, though, because the number of disaffected WoW players will cause even the craziest ideas to have enough potential playerbase to get off the ground and quite possibly succeed.

Unfortunately (perhaps), one of these crazy ideas will be Diablo Online or Starcraft Universe and we will be right back where we started.

[Soln]

yeah I think Bioware may be the only serious contender, but first gen SOE and NCSoft could still deliver if they overcome their own internal problems and bias.

What will eventually eat away at WoW is the game itself, if it doesn't innovate in old areas like housing, crafting, socialization (guild tools etc).  If Blizz can add new content and new (old designed) features then it might live on another 4-5 years after the probable shelf life of 7-8 yrs. This is in light of DAoC and UO still being around currently.

[HaemishM]

Vanguard.

[WindupAtheist]

Neo-WUAs

[Morat20]

A WoW clone with an equally as polished RMT system.
Compare pre-RMT Puzzle Pirates to post-RMT Puzzle Pirates.
A post-RMT WoW would render the term "money hats" obsolete.

Not for the North American market. Us Americans are predisposed to reject official RMT. Now, I understand it works well in the overseas market -- which for MMORPGS is larger than the American market.

Mark my words: Official RMT -- whether micropayments or outright level/item/gold-selling is a dead horse in America.

[tazelbain]

And no one would ever dethrone EQ.

[Venkman]

Not for the North American market. Us Americans are predisposed to reject official RMT. Now, I understand it works well in the overseas market -- which for MMORPGS is larger than the American market.

Mark my words: Official RMT -- whether micropayments or outright level/item/gold-selling is a dead horse in America.

For the current crowd of veteran players who started with EQ.

You'd be surprised what people are willing to microtransact for. It's already a big business. Hell, RMTing is already a big business. And that's when people hate it. Take a look at Runescape. Big RMT business there and their target player (tweens and teens) don't have this predisposed hate to it just because everyone else around them does, or they come from the old school of MUDs when people made games just for the betterment of mankind or some shit.

[WindupAtheist]

EQ was always entirely beatable, and was perceived as such.  The big surprise about EQ was that it took as long as it did to be unseated.  Once upon a time people were thinking shit like SWG and Sims Online would do a million US subs and blow EQ out of the water.

So what does Blizzard have to fear?  Nothing.  Their victory is complete.  Kneel before Zod.  Sure something has to come along and beat them eventually, but whatever that thing will be, it's nothing anyone has even thought of yet.

[Venkman]

I'm mostly wondering if they'll be beat by a game with even greater draw (there are games with much better numbers, but they're not tracked by MMOGcharts so ignored) or if they'll be beat by the sheer amount of people not playing diku-inspired games anymore (or playing for free but microtransacting to fame and fortune).

Fun stuff. Reward five years and we had the same conversation, probably at Waterthread. I love flashbacks :)

[Yegolev]

We need a grammar-checker and a what-I-meant-to-type-checker in addition to a spell-checker.  "Reward five years" makes little sense.  Remember what I said: lots of little games, not one huge one.  I'm going to go get some candy.

[Dren]

And no one would ever dethrone EQ.

EQ beat EQ in my opinion.  They did just what people here are saying Blizz better not do.  Any game gets old over time no matter how many covers you put on the book (expansions.)  You could do some of the best things in the world for the game, but people will still look at it and say, "Yeah, but it is still WoW.  I'm so over that."  Just look at any of the new announcements for UO or EQ, people just don't care past their initial interest of  knowing what's going on.  

Blizzard can ride this horse for another 2 years.  Then natural malaise will set in and people will stop playing no matter what you do.  Their best bet is to launch Diablo Online or something similar in that time frame.  Gradually let WoW shrink and shift support from it to the next best thing.

They best not do the UO or EQ thing and ride the ship until it starts sinking and THEN think of what to do next.  It is way too late at that point.  The games need to overlap to keep the hype strong and make use of the huge resources they have now.

[WindupAtheist]

I think I'm just going to go with the view that the MMO genre has been irreparably ruined, and that Blizzard will rule a kingdom of shitty Dikus from a throne of skulls until the end of time.  That way I can only be pleasantly surprised, and I'm probably right anyway.

[Morat20]

Not for the North American market. Us Americans are predisposed to reject official RMT. Now, I understand it works well in the overseas market -- which for MMORPGS is larger than the American market.

Mark my words: Official RMT -- whether micropayments or outright level/item/gold-selling is a dead horse in America.

For the current crowd of veteran players who started with EQ.

You'd be surprised what people are willing to microtransact for. It's already a big business. Hell, RMTing is already a big business. And that's when people hate it. Take a look at Runescape. Big RMT business there and their target player (tweens and teens) don't have this predisposed hate to it just because everyone else around them does, or they come from the old school of MUDs when people made games just for the betterment of mankind or some shit.

It's not some beautiful theory on gaming, but a part of American culture. Let me put it this way: We Americans love to cheat -- but we don't want anyone else to. (Or at least, we want to pretend they don't). It's all about the fucking work ethic. It's about hating the fucking boss' and his fucking nephew, because his nephew got the damn promotion and you didn't even though the nephew is so fucking clueless that birds nest in his empty skull. We play games to get away from that.

Gold-selling flourishes third party, because everyone can justify THEIR gold purchases ("I don't have as much time as most people -- they're just lazy/unskilled/useless fucks for buying!") -- or if they don't buy, claim everyone else is a gold-buying whore. RMT simply won't work in North America -- not as an official and sanctioned part of a MMORPG. Neither will microtransactions, unless the microtransactions are well-hidden or totally meaningless (the shit like "Special Pet for Collector's Edition/Preorder" is about as far as it goes -- we eat that stupid shit up). It'll turn off more customers than it brings -- and the more RMT, the more subs it turns off. Permanently.

[sinij]

I think I'm just going to go with the view that the MMO genre has been irreparably ruined, and that Blizzard will rule a kingdom of shitty Dikus from a throne of skulls until the end of time.  That way I can only be pleasantly surprised, and I'm probably right anyway.

Optimist.

[tazelbain]

I agree that WoW has already won and no one can take that victory away. Same for EQ.  I think the speculation is of who and what the next king will be.

Anyway, making a good RMT is hard in the same making a good MMOG is hard.  Blizzard took the Duki formula and made it more palettable for a larger audience.  Someone could do the same with RMT.  My mother isn't going buy a subscription, my cousin doesn't have a credit card or regular income, and I'm not going to pay subscription for a game I have casual interest.  The subscription is a barrier.  A well-turned RMT would allow anyone to spend as little or as much money or as they wish and do it at their own pace.  Sure there is a risk of games with overpriced or imbalanced RMT, but like other bad games we will avoid them.

[Rhonstet]

I think the biggest threat is in the continued existence of the pay-to-play model.  Eventually someone is going to figure out a way to make a decent quality MMO without relying on incremental fees.   A good piece of Blizzard's audience are the casual crowd.

But even then, I'm not sure that qualifies as a threat.  Blizzard is really good at incorporating new concepts into old ones, be it in the form of arena-style PvP in WoW, RTS/RPG gameplay in War3, or turning an action game into an MMO with Diablo.  If someone did discover a magic bullet to incremental fees that was popular, I don't doubt that Blizzard would be fast enough to find a way to copy it.

[Rasix]

A game that has higher accessibility, a built in fanbase through a PC gamer-centric IP, a near perfect launch, and untouchable quality has a chance of taking away signficant subs from WoW. 

Vanguard? Original IP and and lack of accessibility (both through PC requirements and design decisions) will hamper it.  May garner more subs than EQ did just through how much bigger the MMO market is now.  If this game is the next big hit, then of my hope for humanity is lost.  Anyhow, it may get more of the rampant catasses away from games I like.  That is a good thing.

LOTRO: Sure, LOTRO fans likely have a lot of gamers, but not on a scale that Blizzard had with WoW. Gah, I just can't say anything about this game's prospects without violating some NDA, so I won't.

WAR: PVP and looks to be extremely competitive in nature; that's points against overall accessibility. A decent gamer base but non on-par with WoW.  Will likely do pretty well.

Bioware: We don't know what the title or IP is yet.  Bioware has had quality issues and making MMOs is HARD.

Age of Conan: It's Funcom.  Hoping Funcom can put out a MMO with passable quality is like hoping the SWG team could release the NGE without fucking it up. 

Nothing else comes to mind that's on the horizon.  Some of these games will nip 200-300k (or more possibly) subs off WoW, enough to be noticeable.  WoW will continue to grow until then.  WoW will also age. The content will run its course and people will get sick of it in time.  It'll contract, just not collapse like some people hope it will. It can't go on infinitely and it's only a matter of time before Blizzard decides to build its heir.  And there's your WoW killer, another Blizzard game in all liklihood.

I don't see WoW's current practices being its downfall.  People have been railing against Blizzard, their glacial patching, their downtime, their "horrible" PVP, their pandering to raiders for nearly two years now and most of those people are still forking over $15 a month.  Sure these practices may drive people to try other games, but I don't see them staying unless the game they pick manages to do what WoW does better.

And yah.. I'd rather not see RMT in any game I play.  Subs work fine for me.

[SnakeCharmer]

And yah.. I'd rather not see RMT in any game I play.  Subs work fine for me

I'd agree with that.  If there is something I would be *tempted* to buy, it would be a pregenerated max level character.  I hate hate hate hate hate hate grinding, and will do damn near anything possible to avoid it - including exploiting the system to radically accellerate the process.  A well defined quest system is fine, but going out and killing 25 million rats?  Fuck. That.

[Chenghiz]

A game with PVP as good as WoW's (yeah, I said it), similar content quality, and out-of-the-box access to PVP content (the equivalent level 60 game currently) would win me over in an instant. I see a fair number of people who are frustrated by the fact that one has to spend a large amount of time in the game not PVPing in order to PVP.

[DataGod]

Funny no one mentioned PoTBS...I think that games going to do pretty well..

OTOH The Gaming Industry itself needs to fear a huge shift of its consumer base into something entirely different....what many of them play today and how they play it will not be the same in 5 years. It would be smart to adjust for that now.

Cheap DD and storage, increased bandwidth penetration, and better tools as well as technology will facilitate this.

BLizzard should ride the pony until it dies, They're the backstreet boys of the MMO genre (see The Long Tail). Even now we're seeing fewer and fewer big budget releases, why? because the ROI sucks for investors, unless they can capture WOW type numbers and no one can garuntee that.

[Sairon]

I think AoC has a fair shot at it. Sure AO was a train wreck when released, but they have learned a lot. There has been a couple of fuck ups in AO, but then there's a truckload of more shit in it than in for example WoW, and it's hell of a lot more complex. Don't want to get my hopes up but I do in fact think AoC can be a huge success.

[Nebu]

A game with PVP as good as WoW's (yeah, I said it), similar content quality, and out-of-the-box access to PVP content (the equivalent level 60 game currently) would win me over in an instant. I see a fair number of people who are frustrated by the fact that one has to spend a large amount of time in the game not PVPing in order to PVP.

You're one of the few people I've seen comment that PvP in WoW is good.  I think I've been too spoiled by Shadowbane (in concept) and DAoC (in implementation) to ever appreciate WoW PvP. 

I think that Blizzard's biggest enemy are those that want something new.  Once you make it to the endgame and see what lies in store for you in WoW, you have to choose between leaving or waiting for the bar to be raised again by some expansion.  Even the new generation of MMO gamers will come to realize that a raid-based endgame holds nothing but an empty promise.

[Morfiend]

Funny no one mentioned PoTBS...I think that games going to do pretty well..

I think at this point PotBS has about as much change of de-throwning WoW as SWG does.

[Morat20]

Funny no one mentioned PoTBS...I think that games going to do pretty well..

I think at this point PotBS has about as much change of de-throwning WoW as SWG does.

Are PotBS's devs being realistic? There is probably a decent sized market for a more "virtual world" MMORPG, and it's a new genre -- if they're shooting for 300k users, they're being optimistic but reasonable. (Depending on the game's actual quality). If they're aiming at million+, they're deluded.

On the other hand, their 150k to 300k "virtual world" users will stick until they turn the damn lights off.

[Rasix]

A game with PVP as good as WoW's (yeah, I said it), similar content quality, and out-of-the-box access to PVP content (the equivalent level 60 game currently) would win me over in an instant. I see a fair number of people who are frustrated by the fact that one has to spend a large amount of time in the game not PVPing in order to PVP.

You're one of the few people I've seen comment that PvP in WoW is good.  I think I've been too spoiled by Shadowbane (in concept) and DAoC (in implementation) to ever appreciate WoW PvP. 

Helps if you're not there primarily for the PVP.  The PVP for me is something that's occasionally fun to do and there's also the fact that I'm able to compete due to still having pretty decent gear (no more raids for me).  I'm not paying any attention to the honor grind, the inherent unfairness of certain maps, or what side pwns the most.

I'd hope DAoC would have better PVP, because its PVE sucks spriggarn balls.

[HaemishM]

If PotBS's devs are hinging their business plan on anything more than 50k subscribers a month, they are deluded and will fail. 50k seems to be me to be the sweet spot.