Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[eldaec]

Lotro is getting a lot of marketing here in Europe.

I'm thinking the guys with the top end estimates are looking comfortable.

[DataGod]

LotR is a migration game at best for people waiting on something else, die hard Middleearth fans cant stand people who dont have Lore based names....

[Endie]

LotR is a migration game at best for people waiting on something else, die hard Middleearth fans cant stand people who dont have Lore based names....

The unfortunate thing about universal statements is that they're easily disproved with a single, anectodal example.

I am not migrating from anything: I haven't played WoW since last summer and I'm still playing Eve.  I am a pretty big Tolkien fan who gets (mildly) annoyed by people called Kitsune running around on the RP server.  And yet I upgraded to the lifetime sub, because it's fun.

[Venkman]

I don't disagree with the migration thing, but do think that's only one part of the people going. Remember, WoW has been out a long time now, and the recent cockblocks in BC are turning off enough people to easily support another less-expensive MMO.

[Modern Angel]

I don't disagree with the migration thing, but do think that's only one part of the people going. Remember, WoW has been out a long time now, and the recent cockblocks in BC are turning off enough people to easily support another less-expensive MMO.

Yes, yes, yes. I wish I could revise my numbers on WoW. BC does alot of good stuff but there are tons of people who are fighting mad over the endgame. No entry level raids, no upgrades in, well, anything, keying cockblocks... I see less and less familiar names logging on every week.

Hubris. WoW's not going anywhere but BC might be the turning point where games like LOTRO can make a dent and a respectable little niche. I didn't expect BC to be where WoW potentially jumped the shark.

[Engels]

My guild, who put up with EQ for years, and then transfered en mass to WoW, has been leaving WoW. We only have about 5 people left in WoW; the rest are either back in EQ1 or in Vanguard. Nobody is touching LoTR, in large part due to a lack of name recognition. I bring it up in guild chat and most haven't heard of it. Not the books, the game.

[Etro]

Funny you mention that, a few of my friends who are big WoW players didn't even know what I was talking about when I suggested that we picked up a copy of LORTO to try and arn't willing to give it a try simple on the same grounds that they don't know anything about it.

[Falconeer]

Oh sweet irony.
Should I start linking to my posts forecasting (NOT doomcasting, just fore-...) WoW lowering its numbers by second half 2007 now, or should I wait the end of the year to fully enjoy the effect?

I remember pointing and laughing at my posts. I think I'll wait. It'll be even more fun then.

[CmdrSlack]

Oh sweet irony.
Should I start linking to my posts forecasting (NOT doomcasting, just fore-...) WoW lowering its numbers by second half 2007 now, or should I wait the end of the year to fully enjoy the effect?

I remember pointing and laughing at my posts. I think I'll wait. It'll be even more fun then.

DId you absorb Geldon's "people care about me" complex or do you really and truly think that people care?

[Venkman]

MMOs are like 401ks. You don't day trade them. LoTRO has been out a mere few days. Give it a month at least, three months ideally. Let's see if the mid game holds up once players get there en masse.

[Falconeer]

Oh sweet irony.
Should I start linking to my posts forecasting (NOT doomcasting, just fore-...) WoW lowering its numbers by second half 2007 now, or should I wait the end of the year to fully enjoy the effect?

I remember pointing and laughing at my posts. I think I'll wait. It'll be even more fun then.

DId you absorb Geldon's "people care about me" complex or do you really and truly think that people care?

I was joking. This thread is all about bragging rights, as mentioned before. If you take a look at my Vanguard prediction, you'll notice something that is really worth pointing and laughing.

That said, should it prove that I was right about WoW churn, I am sure you wouldn't care about it but I'd be mildly self-satisfied in a completely non-important kind of way. Especially cause everyone said I was mad (or worse) and the beast was only destined to grow (while to me it was obviosuly the opposite). Still, we will see.

[Murgos]

Funny you mention that, a few of my friends who are big WoW players didn't even know what I was talking about when I suggested that we picked up a copy of LORTO to try and arn't willing to give it a try simple on the same grounds that they don't know anything about it.

I went in to the EB Games near my house Friday.  There were close to 200 boxes of LoTRO on the shelves.  I've never seen that much stock for a game before so I had to stop and count how many boxes there were.

I think I will do a mini-experiment this evening and go back and count again and see where it's at.

[CmdrSlack]

Oh sweet irony.
Should I start linking to my posts forecasting (NOT doomcasting, just fore-...) WoW lowering its numbers by second half 2007 now, or should I wait the end of the year to fully enjoy the effect?

I remember pointing and laughing at my posts. I think I'll wait. It'll be even more fun then.

DId you absorb Geldon's "people care about me" complex or do you really and truly think that people care?

I was joking. This thread is all about bragging rights, as mentioned before. If you take a look at my Vanguard prediction, you'll notice something that is really worth pointing and laughing.

That said, should it prove that I was right about WoW churn, I am sure you wouldn't care about it but I'd be mildly self-satisfied in a completely non-important kind of way. Especially cause everyone said I was mad (or worse) and the beast was only destined to grow (while to me it was obviosuly the opposite). Still, we will see.

Wow on second read, that didn't come off nearly as snarky as I had hoped.  I never did understand the text color formats though.  And yes, your vanguard talk was friggin hilarious.

[CmdrSlack]

Funny you mention that, a few of my friends who are big WoW players didn't even know what I was talking about when I suggested that we picked up a copy of LORTO to try and arn't willing to give it a try simple on the same grounds that they don't know anything about it.

I went in to the EB Games near my house Friday.  There were close to 200 boxes of LoTRO on the shelves.  I've never seen that much stock for a game before so I had to stop and count how many boxes there were.

I think I will do a mini-experiment this evening and go back and count again and see where it's at.

Everyone knows that the only true metric is forum registration...or something along those lines.

[Falconeer]

And yes, your vanguard talk was friggin hilarious.

My Vanguard talk is nothing compared to the fact that I predicted 400k subscription in December 2007 for it.

[Nebu]

I think most of you are way too high on PotBS.  Just don't ask me why I think that. 

[Hoax]

   Because its a buggy pile of shit that will not deliver many of the things people expect 

Whoops my fingers slipped.

[Falconeer]

I am not even sure why we included PoTBS here in the first place. I can only try to remember (and guess) it was because someone thought it could be some kind of EVE thing. But I thing it could have been better to include either Tabula Rasa or Gods 'n Heroes, or both.

[Venkman]

PotBS because it is an Eve-like experience that had that indie polish back in the day, does have ground avatars already, and is not fantasy nor western sci-fi. It's been around for a bit of time. Whether it's going to suck or not we'll be finding out as more people pull a Hoax :)

You'll get no such NDA-breaking antics from me on TR except to say it's not the sort of game intended to be on this sort of list anyway. ;)

[Strazos]

I'm just wondering if anyone is still going to be around by the time 12/08 rolls around.

[Lantyssa]

I'm not planning on getting bumped off before then, so sure.

[Morat20]

My wife and I are planning on getting the game the end of May/Early June -- we're a bit burnt out on WoW and looking for something new, and this seems a good choice.

I still wish CoH's held my attention more. I still haven't found a game where combat is as purely fun and 'heroic' feeling, but for some reason I just really can't get into the game for more than a few days at a time.

[Lantyssa]

I'm not sure LoTR is a good choice if you're burned out on WoW.  I'd go for something a little different from either.

[Morat20]

I'm not sure LoTR is a good choice if you're burned out on WoW.  I'd go for something a little different from either.

It's not that sort of burned out. We're just wanting a change of scenery. It's more like "I'm sick of cruising the Carribean, let's try an Alaskan cruise instead". The overall experience is pretty much the same, but it looks different enough that we get a refreshed sense of enjoyment.

The look and feel of LOTRO is different enough from WoW to be appealing, but the gameplay is close enough that there's not a significant learning curve (which is more an issue for her than me). Hell, we're both natural explorers anyways. It's worth it just to go wander the Shire and visit Weathertop.

[Nebu]

I still wish CoH's held my attention more. I still haven't found a game where combat is as purely fun and 'heroic' feeling, but for some reason I just really can't get into the game for more than a few days at a time.

I was going to recommend CoH, but you beat me to the punch.  CoH has been my "Honeymoon MMOG" of choice lately.  It's nice to log on and kill stuff for an hour here or there, but I agree that the shine wears off fast.  Have you considered GW?  It can be a nice, mindless diversion.  The lack of a sub fee also makes it a nice game to hop in and out of when the scenery elsewhere gets old.

[Morat20]

I was going to recommend CoH, but you beat me to the punch.  CoH has been my "Honeymoon MMOG" of choice lately.  It's nice to log on and kill stuff for an hour here or there, but I agree that the shine wears off fast.  Have you considered GW?  It can be a nice, mindless diversion.  The lack of a sub fee also makes it a nice game to hop in and out of when the scenery elsewhere gets old.

I've thought about it, but I mostly move between WoW, occiasonally CoH (I do want CoVs, but haven't gotten around to it), and EVE depending on mood. The concepts behind GWs has just never really caught my attention.

I have to admit, the best moment I ever had in a game was in CoH. We had a crappy pull, we were flooded with mobs, and the defender was desperately just trying to keep the tank alive. So me and the other blaster just said "To hell with it!" and unleashed everything we had. We snapped aggro off of the defender (although the tank managed to hold onto several targets) and started getting hammered. When defiance kicked in (it was brand new to the game), we just started slaughtering.

Ended up with both of us at about 10% health, a shit-ton of dead mobs, and a feeling of "How fucking shit. Let's do that again".

I think another great moment was with my rad/rad Defender -- I just stacked debuffs on a pair of mobs, and floated serenly above the fray. Gave me this kind of Professor X sort of vibe -- utter neutralization without violence. (Well, I let our Wolverine clones -- I mean 'scrappers' -- do the violence). It just had this sort of egotistical wave-the-hands "You are dead and don't even know it" feel to it.

I don't think I've ever had that sort of innate attachment to the toon and it's actions in any other sort of MMORPG.

[Yegolev]

I'm just wondering if anyone is still going to be around by the time 12/08 rolls around.

Are you planning on killing us all?  Out with it!

[Ragnoros]

Well we (may) have our first winners. If you guessed Zero for WHO/WAR winter 07 you are correct sir! Edit I'm dumb.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6169847.html?om_act=convert&om_clk=newstop&tag=newstop;title;11

[Trippy]

Well we (may) have our first winners. If you guessed Zero for WH40K winter 07 you are correct sir!

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6169847.html?om_act=convert&om_clk=newstop&tag=newstop;title;11

That's WAR (or WHO, heh), not WH40K.

[Cheddar]

I won this thread.

[DataGod]

Hardly :)

[Furiously]

I won this thread.

I'll ask to have that put on your headstone.

[schild]

This thread has legs.

[UnSub]

This thread has legs.

It's merely resting before making its NGE thread-esque attempt at immortality.

[Falconeer]

I guess it'll get really hot by November, as the first deadline approaches and we all start making up numbers and our own "trustworthy sources".