"No used games on the next XBox". Take with huge grain of salt.

[Fabricated]

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/121/1217257p1.html
http://kotaku.com/5879202/sources-the-next-xbox-will-play-blu+ray-may-not-play-used-games-and-will-introduce-kinect-2?popular=true

Microsoft will upgrade its disc technology for its next Xbox from DVDs to Blu-Ray discs, catching up to rival Sony, games industry sources tell Kotaku.

Sony's PlayStation 3 currently supports Blu-Ray, which can contain 25 or 50GB of data compared to DVD's 9GB.

But that disc detail could be far less impactful to the next generation of game consoles than the assertion I've heard from one reliable industry source that Microsoft intends to incorporate some sort of anti-used game system as part of their so-called Xbox 720.

It's not clear if that means that the system wouldn't play used games or how such a set-up would work. Obvious approaches—I'm theorizing here—like linking a copy of a game to a specific Xbox Live account could seemingly be foiled by used-game owners who would keep their system offline. My source wasn't sure how Microsoft intended to implement any anti-used game system in the new machine.

I call horseshit since well, it's a sourceless Kotaku article and the last time we heard this sort of thing (when Sony filed a patent for a method of preventing used games from being played before the PS3 dropped) it turned out to be wrong.

Still an interesting discussion all the same. The less onerous solution is to just go all digital and tell people without an internet connection to get stuffed. Still a shitty thing to do, but it lacks the anger-inducing factor for parents/users of buying/trading a used game and discovering you can't play it after you put the disc in.

[Kageru]

There's a pretty huge incentive for them to do this, so it would not in the least surprise me. And naturally any attempt to work around it, even for games you bought, would count as a DMCA transgression.

Anything that kicks the retail games industry in the nuts is fine with me. As a PC gamer they've long been irrelevant.

[Miasma]

They had better not call it the 720 either.

Is there anything stopping Sony from saying "no, we won't license blue-ray to you"?

[Ingmar]

Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association

[Simond]

Still an interesting discussion all the same. The less onerous solution is to just go all digital and tell people without an internet connection to get stuffed. Still a shitty thing to do, but it lacks the anger-inducing factor for parents/users of buying/trading a used game and discovering you can't play it after you put the disc in.

Just slap an "Internet connection required for game activation" sticker on the side of the box. Job done.

[Strazos]

Perhaps make it work similarly to steam, where the games are tied to your account.

This could make bans an even larger threat, as your entire library could be invalidated.

[Malakili]

Perhaps make it work similarly to steam, where the games are tied to your account.

This could make bans an even larger threat, as your entire library could be invalidated.

Little Timmy losing 500 bucks of his parents money worth of games because he said something racist one too many times makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. 

[Bzalthek]

Perhaps make it work similarly to steam, where the games are tied to your account.

This could make bans an even larger threat, as your entire library could be invalidated.

Little Timmy losing 500 bucks of his parents money worth of games because he said something racist one too many times makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. 

This.  A million times fucking this!

[Azazel]

While I dislike the pawnshop mentality that has taken over the retail arm of the industry, as someone who owns more than 1 xbox (well, my wife and I), and also uses (more than 1 of) them at work, it'd certainly stop me from buying a vast library of titles, as I have with the 360/PS3.

I tolerate steam's DRM format because the games are cheap, discounted regularly, and on sale constantly. Console games don't hit the deep discount in the same was that Steam does.

[UnSub]

We're definitely heading towards the dropping of physical versions of a title, but probably not in time for the next Xbox release.

I can see it being tied to accounts though, much like Steam. Plus possibly increasing incentives to go fully digital (and MS exclusive) rather than releasing box copies as well.

For those interested in such things, a GamaSutra look at XBLA sales in 2011.

It could also be an MS 'leak' to get GameStop worried and compliant as well.  

EDIT: The current focus of a lot of tech companies is to 'own' as much of their customers' data as possible. A revamp to the MS system to introduce a Facebook-esque / Steam-esque account management system / social network is also a feasible step.

[Baldrake]

Still an interesting discussion all the same. The less onerous solution is to just go all digital and tell people without an internet connection to get stuffed. Still a shitty thing to do, but it lacks the anger-inducing factor for parents/users of buying/trading a used game and discovering you can't play it after you put the disc in.

Just slap an "Internet connection required for game activation" sticker on the side of the box. Job done.

I have no idea of the real truth, but I suspect a surprisingly large number of Xboxes are not attached to any network, but just used to play single player games straight from the disk.

[Merusk]

If you can believe number floating on the 'net, the percentage of connected units is > 73 for PS3 and xbox.

http://www.destructoid.com/higher-percent-of-net-connected-ps3s-than-other-consoles-170797.phtml

[Rendakor]

Clicking a few links deep, the survey is bullshit.

Diffusion Group's survey polled 2,000 adult broadband users in the U.S.

Sauce

[UnSub]

Other sources indicate there are 35m Xbox Live users and MS says that 65.8m Xbox 360s sold to date.

So maybe about 50% of Xbox 360s have net access. How many are active users is a different story, of course, but that's the same with Steam's claim of 40m users as well.

EDIT: should have used the 40m Xbox Live users on the same page as the Xbox 360 sales. So 61% of Xbox 360s have a Live account, roughly. Other stats indicate about 50% of Xbox Live users are Gold members, so that's another piece to the puzzle.

[caladein]

Clicking a few links deep, the survey is bullshit.

Diffusion Group's survey polled 2,000 adult broadband users in the U.S.

Sauce

2000 is plenty large as long as the rest of the survey work/analysis/whatever is well done.

[apocrypha]

The claim that the PS3 has the highest percentage of users connected is a bit spurious when the difference between PS3 and 360 in that survey was only 5%. I'd be surprised if they could reliably claim <5% margin of error.

You can also spin that survey result however you like. The Wii has a larger userbase and therefore the highest absolute number of connected units, despite the lower percentage.

Either way, I suspect that increasingly draconian DRM and similar moves won't actually increase new game sales. It'll just reduce 2nd hand sales. As a comparison, it doesn't look like reducing piracy has a positive impact on music sales (link).

[Merusk]

You mean stopping piracy won't force people to buy shitty shit shit? I'm amazed!  I'm no fan of piracy but the argument that it was what was causing the decline of purchases was always spurious at best.

Cala said what had to be said about survey #'s.

Also, despite Wii's greater numbers I expect MS and Sony to still place a  >$500 console on the market, not having learned that lesson at all.

[Lantyssa]

Other sources indicate there are 35m Xbox Live users and MS says that 65.8m Xbox 360s sold to date.

Given the 360 failure rate, that puts the percentage of connected boxes to near 100%.

[Chimpy]

Other sources indicate there are 35m Xbox Live users and MS says that 65.8m Xbox 360s sold to date.

Given the 360 failure rate, that puts the percentage of connected boxes to near 300%.

Fixed it for you, heh.

[Rendakor]

Clicking a few links deep, the survey is bullshit.

Diffusion Group's survey polled 2,000 adult broadband users in the U.S.

Sauce

2000 is plenty large as long as the rest of the survey work/analysis/whatever is well done.

My point of contention isn't the number of people, it's that they only surveyed people who have broadband internet. There are tons of people out there who are either a) too poor or b) live in rural areas and thus don't have broadband/the internet at all. I suspect at least some of these people also own Xbox 360s, but they were discounted entirely in the survey and therefor the survey is inaccurate.

[Chimpy]

The ars technica article referencing this kotaku rumor quoted some report that estimated 27% of Xbox users do not have their console connected to the internet.

[sickrubik]

You mean stopping piracy won't force people to buy shitty shit shit? I'm amazed!  I'm no fan of piracy but the argument that it was what was causing the decline of purchases was always spurious at best.

Cala said what had to be said about survey #'s.

Also, despite Wii's greater numbers I expect MS and Sony to still place a  >$500 console on the market, not having learned that lesson at all.

The Wii benefited from a lot of supply chain "issues" and built in buzz. The actual cost of entry into the world of Wii went well north of what consoles were selling at, even when not counting the inflated prices through ebay or even from brick-and-mortar stores inflating the cost. The stock price was $249. Not really much less than the XBox.

The 360 launched at $299/$399, and the PS3 launched at $399-$599. Microsoft doesn't really have something to learn, but I would agree Sony does. And I do think they have learned their lesson a bit, given the Vita pricing. It came in well below what a lot of industry folk were speculating at. Of course, the Vita has.... other issues to contend with.

[Ingmar]

You also have to remember that the XBox was actually a loss for Microsoft at those prices - the console was a loss leader, whereas the Wii at $249 was already making a profit for Nintendo because it was so much cheaper to make.

[sickrubik]

True. But largely irrelevant in the discussion of what will generate sales. Profits, sure, but not what will sell.

[Speedy Cerviche]

I tolerate steam's DRM format because the games are cheap, discounted regularly, and on sale constantly. Console games don't hit the deep discount in the same was that Steam does.

If they were smart they'd do sales like Steam. I don't have the figures in front me but I have read before about valve bragging how they basically get insane profit spikes off of steam sales. Apparently everybody wins. I've certainly bought a crapload of PC games on -80% sales that I would have never touched at full price (some I never even end up playing heh), since you've got no costs beyond a little bandwidth, it's pure profit.

[Chimpy]

I tolerate steam's DRM format because the games are cheap, discounted regularly, and on sale constantly. Console games don't hit the deep discount in the same was that Steam does.

If they were smart they'd do sales like Steam. I don't have the figures in front me but I have read before about valve bragging how they basically get insane profit spikes off of steam sales. Apparently everybody wins. I've certainly bought a crapload of PC games on -80% sales that I would have never touched at full price (some I never even end up playing heh), since you've got no costs beyond a little bandwidth, it's pure profit.

Valve may be getting "insane profit" because in a lot of cases, regardless of what the item sells for, the distributor (in this case, Steam) gets the same amount per unit as they would if it sold for full price.

I am not privy to the details of what their agreements with studios are, but there is likely something that guarantees Valve a minimum dollar value per unit sold, regardless of cost.

[sickrubik]

Of course Valve doesn't have a looming parent company like Microsoft or Sony or stockholders.

[UnSub]

Valve are making an insane profit because they are selling a lot of product for a 30% cut. They aren't spending on developing that content, just on maintaining (and expanding) the Steam platform.

[Tebonas]

Microsoft and Sony aren't developing that content either. They just maintain the stores the 3rd party developers use. Or am I missing something here?

[Sheepherder]

It's sort of irrelevant when the argument is based on Chimpy's conjecture.

[Chimpy]

It's sort of irrelevant when the argument is based on Chimpy's conjecture.

I am not sure either where the argument you perceive is, nor how any of it ties directly to what I said.

 

[tgr]

Perhaps make it work similarly to steam, where the games are tied to your account.

This could make bans an even larger threat, as your entire library could be invalidated.

If they replicate all the things that make steam acceptable, i.e. regular bargains, download/install/update, offline mode, easy access for indie developers etc, then I suppose it won't be the worst idea ever.

[Sheepherder]

I am not sure either where the argument you perceive is, nor how any of it ties directly to what I said.

How Valve makes money on sales.  It's just sort of a pointless argument to start, unless you happen to have Gabe Newell bound and gagged in your basement.  If you do, please chain him to a workstation.  The next installment of Half-Life has been delayed enough as it is.

[UnSub]

Microsoft and Sony aren't developing that content either. They just maintain the stores the 3rd party developers use. Or am I missing something here?

MS and Sony are also spending on promoting their platforms, funding development / publishing titles and other associated costs related to their consoles. Yes, they are earning revenue on the titles sold through the online shops, but their expenses are higher.

Steam, to my knowledge, doesn't fund the development or publishing of any title other than their own, aren't spending on promoting the PC platform or a host of other things. If you have a title that meets their publishing criteria, they'll put it up on the shop and if it sells they take (reputedly) a 30% cut. But if it doesn't sell, it doesn't cost anything notable to keep it on Steam either.

Valve is spending to extend the Steam platform - iOS and Android shop and community fronts were announced this week - but their costs in comparison to MS and Sony are a lot smaller, hence the "mad profits".

In the internet age, it is a lot more profitable to be a content aggregator and distributor than a content developer.

[Amaron]

I have no idea of the real truth, but I suspect a surprisingly large number of Xboxes are not attached to any network, but just used to play single player games straight from the disk.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them put in some sort of cheap wireless like ebooks.  That would let them do some bare minimum "register the game to run it" and some other functions.