Japan [Tag: Fucked]

[Arthur_Parker]

http://irnglobal.com/

News conference at the minute on NHK world.

[Khaldun]

Look, some people read all the news when they're interested in something. So I'm interested in what's happened. That includes the earthquake, the tsunami, the human consequences, and the failure AND success of some planning for a disaster at this scale. Today the detail that stuck most in my mind was the reporter who blogged about seeing a single horse confused in the middle of nowhere, and finding that incredibly poignant.

If the idea is, "local US news or US TV news is a bunch of crap", well congratulations, you discovered something that everyone else already knew, and it's nothing particularly pronounced about this story. If you're talking better-quality news media, I see a pretty wide diversity of focus on this story.

[Hawkbit]

Wow, the map on that site is wonderful news, as we'll be in Seattle from the 18-25th.     Rads for everyone!

[Simond]

Personally I found the focus, distasteful I guess?, simply because in all the rush to discuss potential disasters and the worst case scenarios people seemed to utterly miss the fact that even worse things had already actually happened.

Nowhere,
They didnt miss it. But the government was claiming "maybe" the death toll will reach a 1,000. So the lack of concentration on the tsunami and devastation could be seen as a direct result of the Japanese government down playing the catastrophe.
So the story initially was a shit load of mud and property damage, but no human loss since the government says only "maybe" the death toll will reach a 1,000. So the potential for a nuclear accident was a bigger lead story.

And any journalist worth his or her salt would have looked at that number, looked at a map of where the tsunami hit, look at the magnitude of the 'quake, put two and two together, and said "bullshit". And maybe then, I don't know, done some actual bloody journalism.

[Arthur_Parker]

Wow, the map on that site is wonderful news, as we'll be in Seattle from the 18-25th.     Rads for everyone!

I have no idea what that site is, I was just using the video stream.

[jakonovski]

The horse's owner survived as well:

2253: The tweet by Katie Hinman of ABC News about the lonely horse in Sendai (See 2146) prompted Breda Gahan in Dublin to email in: "Can't believe I read this. Please return horse to Natsuko Komura." The BBC's Damian Grammaticas interviewed Ms Komura on Sunday as she searched for her trusty steed near Sendai's beach. She had been riding it when the tsunami approached on Friday, but had not seen it since. "Deepest sympathy to all the Japanese people affected by this terrible tragedy. I am speechless when I see the images," Ms Brehan adds.

[Sand]

And any journalist worth his or her salt would have looked at that number, looked at a map of where the tsunami hit, look at the magnitude of the 'quake, put two and two together, and said "bullshit". And maybe then, I don't know, done some actual bloody journalism.

100% agreed. But as you and I both know journalism is all about advertising dollars these days, at least with in mainstream media.

[lamaros]

What is it you think journalists do? Not all of them are there to provide expert analysis of earthquake casualty predictions...

PROBABLY TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DEAD IN JAPAN EARTHQUAKE

There has been an earthquake off the coast of Japan and it and the resulting Tsunami have caused a fuckload of damage. We are being told that the predicted death-toll is around 1000, but expected to rise higher. However, based on looking at a map of where the tsunami hit, and looking at the magnitude of the 'quake, we here at the offices put two and two together and said "bullshit!": It's going to be heaps more!

[fuser]

Fuel rods are likely to be fully exposed again 

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nhk-world-tv

[MahrinSkel]

Another explosion, this time in Number 2.  This looks different from the other two, there's a clear orange flame at the beginning and large debris raining down afterward.

--Dave

EDIT: LA Times is saying this is another steam/hydrogen explosion and like the other two, containment has not been breached.

[Sheepherder]

Christ, the steel thing, if it had said pink furry steel, I'd have quoted that, just cause it has "low" in the title doesn't necessarily mean that's a bad thing.  I do imagine they thought about it some.

It's actually a translated document from Japanese Nuclear Energy Safety Organization, so  

Just to sort of tie this back into our original RAGE HATE WILL DESTROY YOU, DESECRATE GRAVE level of serious internet argument, (which is above ponies but below kittens, overall) calling it one serious pot (or whatever the expression was) is just about as accurate as calling it low alloy steel.

I didn't say it wasn't from the JNESO, I said it was terrible, like so:

[Ghambit]

NHK (via Tepco) is saying the pressures in the No. 2 containment have gone down post-explosion (this is obviously bad).  Supposedly this is due to the suppression pools being damaged (the coolant systems at the base of the vessel), as they heard specific explosions coming from that region of the system.  Rads are at around 1000 micro-sieverts right now and they went up to near 10k micro-sieverts after the explosion.

Specifically now, the containment is down to 1ATM... which is just like standing outside.  So basically, the rads from the suppression system made it outside.  Situation just got even more complex it seems.

edit:  their reporting, though chock full of details, seems a bit jumpy of late.

[Khaldun]

We've been told that that couldn't have happened, so it must not have.

[Fordel]

What is a Sievert?

[UnSub]

What is a Sievert?

Radiation dose equivalent on, well, people.

[Sheepherder]

NHK (via Tepco) is saying the pressures in the No. 2 containment have gone down post-explosion (this is obviously bad).

Not really.  They're been venting the core to the outside since the start of the incident.

Supposedly this is due to the suppression pools being damaged (the coolant systems at the base of the vessel), as they heard specific explosions coming from that region of the system.  Rads are at around 1000 micro-sieverts right now and they went up to near 10k micro-sieverts after the explosion.

I am sure the superheated hydrogen settled to the bottom of the core before exploding.

EDIT: And TEPCO is claiming no loss of seal.

[UnSub]

One of the reasons the focus is on the nuclear power plant (and yes, there is sensationalist journalism going on too) is that it is the ongoing story. Japan will need to pick up the pieces after the tsunami - which is hard for a country with a rapidly aging population that is estimated to shrink over the next decade or more - but that event is (for now) finished and the clean up started. The earthquake / tsunami combo was also out of human control.

A nuclear reactor, however, is within human control. People planned where it should go, people estimated the risks, people may have not kept the maintenance up to scratch and people are now trying to keep things under control. I'm amazed (to an extent - this is the internet) the confidence by which people say, "Oh, that can't happen," in a situation where apparently none of it should. Redundant levels of failsafes have failed, the current tactic for cooling the reactor using seawater has never been tried before and I'm not sure that all information on the ground is flowing straight out to the internet so that we have a 100% accurate picture.

[Ghambit]

They were saying they lost control of the backup valve controls (if you remember, the main valves failed a while back) to the No. 2 suppression system and THAT'S what caused the damage to the pool.  They couldnt vent the steam in the condensing system, so heat/steam built up and cracked it essentially.  If I understand this correctly, this now means they're full on 'manual' when it comes to cooling #2 since the condensing system is now ambient.  Any water they get into the system will definitely flash now yes?  The suppression pool at the base is basically useless and fully half the rods are exposed to air.   ?

I feel some venting of conjecture coming on so I'm gonna stop here and just toss this article out regarding old BWR suppression systems.
http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html

[Abagadro]

the WSJ's top editorial is pretty good, at least some news organizations are being responsible:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704893604576198421680697248.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

It's NOT their editorial, it's pro-nuclear propaganda: Mr. Tucker is author of "Terrestrial Energy: How Nuclear Power Will Lead the Green Revolution and End America's Energy Odyssey" (Bartleby Press, 2010).

I work in the news media. I report accurately, unlike you.

So? He wrote a book on it I think he knows a thing or two about nuclear power. Unless you specifically know this man to be a liar, your offhand dismissal of an expert's opinion is fairly reactionary.

The guy is a shill. He is all over the NEI and other places.  He may be knowledgeable, but he is also heavily invested in downplaying the dangers of nuclear power so he is hardly a go-to source for objective analysis of a crisis regardless of his level of knowledge.

[Ghambit]

No. 4 reactor has a fire going on now (hydro. 'splosion), per a Cabinet secy. after PM's speech.  Structure fell back into the reactor instead of exploding outward.  I assume this is what's currently burning.
(sigh)  No.4 was spent fuel.

Evac is extended to 20km radius.  20-30km stay indoors with closed windows.

[Sand]

So all four have now exploded in some fashion yes?

NHK (via Tepco) is saying the pressures in the No. 2 containment have gone down post-explosion (this is obviously bad). 

Stupid question time, if the ambient pressure in the containment has fallen to 1 ATM, doesnt that inherently mean there is some way for pressure to get out? So doesnt that mean the container vessels arent sealed? So when they keep saying containment hasnt been breached, they are uh wrong?

[Ghambit]

So all four have now exploded in some fashion yes?

NHK (via Tepco) is saying the pressures in the No. 2 containment have gone down post-explosion (this is obviously bad).  

Stupid question time, if the ambient pressure in the containment has fallen to 1 ATM, doesnt that inherently mean there is some way for pressure to get out? So doesnt that mean the container vessels arent sealed? So when they keep saying containment hasnt been breached, they are uh wrong?

Yes, all 4 have exploded in some fashion.

They cant yet verify if the containment itself has been breached or not (though the secy. said LIKELY), but they can verify the suppression system has been breached... which isnt really a part of the core so to speak.  The water in there is radiological though, but obviously not as bad as a "core leak."  Also, no. 4 has a fire so they now have to worry about temps. over there along with a radiological cloud created by the fire.

Secy. also said they've gotten readings of 100-400 MILLISIEVERTs (in spikes), which is a helluva lot more than a MICROsievert.  100 Millisieverts will sterilize your gonads.

edit:  this is surreal.  NHK is giving radiation preparedness/prevention instructions  (dust your coat, wash your hair, etc.) for the people within 20-30km.

[Merusk]

I don't think anyone was buying the official estimates that lowballed the potential casualties. Nuclear emergencies are simply better copy than drowning people, we see dead earthquake victims every few months from one part of the globe or another but a juicy nuclear emergency is a rarity. Additionally as most people (journalists included) don't understand the science there's a lot more scope for doomsday predictions that provide linkbait and get eyeballs on screens.

Stop thinking that news corporations are running an information service, it's entertainment paid for by advertising and driven by suffering.

Didn't I say this already?  Bah!

[MahrinSkel]

There were 6 reactors in the facility, 4-6 were completely shut down for maintenance cycles and weren't considered to be of any concern.

If #2 is completely depressurized, that means at a minimum containment is compromised.  Doesn't mean we have had a full containment breach (fuel getting outside of the vessel), but there's no longer anything preventing gas from inside the reactor from flowing directly out.  We're in a more serious level of problem, where there are no options that don't involve spreading contamination.

--Dave

EDIT: Reactors #5 and #6 are physically separated, they're considered part of Fukushima Daiichi administratively but #4 is the one that is part of the same physical facility.  Presumably the damage to the rest of the complex is having some effect there.  If one of the spent fuel pools drained and is now on fire, this just went to a whole new level of "oh shit".

[Ghambit]

There were 6 reactors in the facility, 4-6 were completely shut down for maintenance cycles and weren't considered to be of any concern.

If #2 is completely depressurized, that means at a minimum containment is compromised.  Doesn't mean we have had a full containment breach (fuel getting outside of the vessel), but there's no longer anything preventing gas from inside the reactor from flowing directly out.  We're in a more serious level of problem, where there are no options that don't involve spreading contamination.

--Dave

No. 4 held spent fuel which was stored less securely than a working reactor.  Remember the xplanation about the spent fuel residing in a different location? Near the top somewhere in a pool.
The fire essentially is spreading this spent fuel radiation currently, between 100-400 mSv.

[Ghambit]

Check this out.  Foreshadowing is a bitch.  The Times called it spot on only they forgot about No. 4.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15fuel.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

The pools are a worry at the stricken reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant because at least two of the three have lost their roofs in explosions, exposing the spent fuel pools to the atmosphere. By contrast, reactors have strong containment vessels that stand a better chance of bottling up radiation from a meltdown of the fuel in the reactor core.

Were the spent fuel rods in the pools to catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity.

“It’s worse than a meltdown,” said David A. Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists who worked as an instructor on the kinds of General Electric reactors used in Japan. “The reactor is inside thick walls, and the spent fuel of Reactors 1 and 3 is out in the open.”

[MahrinSkel]

The radiation from the spent fuel is bad, but the actual chemically poisonous effects of that much uranium and cesium vapor is worse.  Expended fuel rods aren't that much more radioactive than the natural (unenriched) uranium.  But both metals are biologically toxic as hell (cesium is why Bikini Atoll is still uninhabitable, the body tries to use it in place of potassium).

--Dave

EDIT: Shit, I forgot about the plutonium in the expended rods.  Not only radioactive as hell, but the most chemically toxic element *period*.  And the wind is blowing towards Tokyo....

[Murgos]

Secy. also said they've gotten readings of 100-400 MILLISIEVERTs (in spikes), which is a helluva lot more than a MICROsievert.  100 Millisieverts will sterilize your gonads.

There is a lot of bad info flying around but yeah, this is much worse than the earlier problems.  Micro is 1*10^-6 or .000001 while milli is 1*10^-3 or .001 so 400 mSv is several hundred times anything that's been reported so far.  The radiation from Reactor 2 (and 1 and 3) still seems to be pretty minor, 4 though, that seems like a much more serious issue.
What I've seen so far is that there were spent fuel rods being stored in Reactor 4 and that reactor caught on fire.  I haven't seen anything about how yet.  The reason this could easily be worse is that the spent rods probably aren't in anything like as secure a structure as the active cores.

Don't think meltdown, think dirty bomb.  Different issues, some easier to solve some worse.

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Possible_damage_at_Fukushima_Daiichi_2_1503111.html is trust worthy.

My background is 6 years on nuclear/bio/chem reaction teams with the USMC.  I was on the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station emergency team as well as a pac-rim team stationed in Okinawa and have had hundreds of hours of nuclear emergency training on everything from monitor and survey to emergency response to emergency site management for broken arrows and etc...  I wasn't worried about the earlier stuff, it seemed well in control.  This though?  Yeah, not good.

[Tale]

Before/After photos of devastation in Japan, including nuclear plant: roll your mouse over the pic to reveal.

Before/After photos part two: roll your mouse over the pic to reveal.

[Ghambit]

IAEA upgraded the event to Level 5 (3 mile island level).
110km south of Fukushima they're now getting 5 microSv in a 10 min. period and stabilized at around 3 microSv per hour.  Not bad, but almost like a commercial airline flight eh?  

[01101010]

I keep tilting to the about the news releases. Makes sense in that, when the worst is coming, those in the know will keep it under reported or not reported as not to induce a mad panic till the last possible moment.

Japan is a proud country and my old suitemate from outside Tokyo said so when I was snubbed at a Japanese American Association meeting way back in undergrad. No malice intent at all, it's just the way of the culture.  Would not surprise me if this added into the news reports (under-reporting) of the death toll or the nuclear fiasco/tragedy.  Seeing all the pics and videos just leaves me numb...hard to process that much catastrophic devastation. Still having a hard time wrapping my head around it.

[Khaldun]

I think there's some evidence here that it pays to keep an open mind and not back yourself into a corner about what can or cannot be happening. Particularly if you're of a scientific cast of mind: it's bad practice to overcommit to a view of what is or is not possible, particularly when you don't have all or even most of the data that might be relevant. Thirty years ago if you'd asked astronomers what kinds of planetary systems might exist around other stars, they would have told you that our Solar System was likely to be pretty much a normal or average system, and that gas giants would likely be found in Jupiter orbits or even further out. Now it's becoming clear that all sorts of other kinds of configurations are possible, and that we might be quite abnormal in some respects. It might be on paper that these reactors shouldn't do anything that bad, or that the containment shouldn't breach, or that sea water ought to work, but it's becoming quite evident that there's some variables here that you can't judge yet even if you know a lot about this reactor design or nuclear engineering in general.

[Ghambit]

At what point can they no longer even fight the situation?
I read there are only 50 people left at the plant at this point... heroes to be sure.

[Khaldun]

They may be getting to the point that the Russians faced at Chernobyl where dealing with the situation is going to require people who are going to die. I don't think they're going to be able to do what the Russians did, which is basically conscript people and lie to them about the consequences.

[Tale]

Geiger counter live video stream from Ōta ward, eastern Tokyo: http://bit.ly/hZtBt1 (via @tokyorich on Twitter)