iPad

[MahrinSkel]

They successfully turned an MP3 player into a fashion accessory, which was more of a matter of finally putting big bucks into *marketing* them at just the right time.  They stole a march on the smartphone market, essentially by saying "people like bigger screens on their phones, so we'll make a phone that is *all screen*", which I'll admit was clever, but they didn't manage to dominate the space before real competition showed up so they're now fucked (not to mention that what people want from an MP3 player doesn't change, feature bloat is not a marketing strategy, while smartphones are...all about feature bloat).

The iPad is nowhere near as ahead of the curve as the iPhone, never mind the iPod.

--Dave

[Quinton]

I think a lot of their mp3 player success was also due to hitting a sweet spot on size, interface, storage capacity, and industrial design.  They didn't get distracted with feature bloat and especially their middle generation products were just brilliantly engineered.  For my money the 3rd generation nano (thin unibody aluminum case, 4-8GB flash) is one of the nicest pieces of portable consumer electronics I've ever owned.

One thing Apple does not do well is innovate impressively within a single product space.  ipod had a couple industrial design families but the basic UI barely changed over a decade.  iPhone has been mostly stagnant since launch (barring the app store deployment).  They're good at making a huge leap into a new product family but then tend toward slow iteration.

iPhone raised the bar on the smartphone software experience.  It made software matter to a broader public and to the operators and OEMs.

I agree that iPad just does not feel like the same kind of leap forward.  It really is Apple's take on the netbook, and I think their insistence on going down the iphone walled garden path there instead of the OSX wide open OS path is going to hurt them in the long run.

[Tebonas]

I think they overreached with the ipad and the ego of Steve Jobs is their worst enemy. But the iphone sale numbers are absolutely impressive taking into account that they are chained to a single provider in most countries.

They lucked out twice and now think they can do it every time. But that doesn't negate that the iphone os is still a neat design and they just need slow iterations to work out the kinks. Average users don't love to make their own UI experience from scratch. They like to know how things works and if they work they don't want that to change too much.

Everything you say is bad about the iphone is something that only us powerusers want to have.

[K9]

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2010/04/02/ipad-the-destroyer-19-things-it-will-kill/

Lawl

Oh dear.

[Mrbloodworth]

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2010/04/02/ipad-the-destroyer-19-things-it-will-kill/

Lawl

Flash and Silverlight and JavaFX. What if Apple created a significant new category of computing devices and connected it to its installed base of 70 million mobile devices, and none of it ran Flash nor Silverlight nor JavaFX? Why would anyone bother to learn that stuff? To deprive Android of having any native apps? To keep performance from rocketing out of control? To expand the required development efforts and QA by orders of magnitude, with no commercial payoff? Dead.

lolz indeed.

[Engels]

Funny thing is that while I continue to find the iPhone useful on a daily basis, I am increasingly unable to find a reason for my iPad. I use the reader, but I'd be more or less content to go back to the kindle. It would be silly to use the ipad as an mp3 player as I do my iPhone.

Now, folks say that I'm the wrong demographic, because I am a techy. I argue that my routine computing needs are the same as anyone else's. See, the problem is that I already have a computer at work, and a computer at home. The iPad is slick and all that, but it just doesn't beat a real computer for computery things, such as web browsing, clerical stuff, computer games, etc. It does those things, but in a 'mobile' fashion, which is by definition a crampier experience than a real computer.

So I guess if the world were populated by people who don't own a computer then the iPad would maybe take over. Oh, but wait, you need iTunes to manage it! Damn it! Jobs just can't win!

[tgr]

Oh dear god, that guy needs to lay off the Jobs cocksucking. The whole "you won't ever need brochures anymore, just hand them a $500 electronical device instead! and give them a link they can peruse afterwards!" skit just shows how out of phase with reality he is. How will he give them a link for later perusal? Email? As if that's not spammed to death already. Write it down on a postit? And how many of those iPads wouldn't be stolen every day?

Engels: I'm also having a problem seeing the use of it. As you say, it's slick and all, but I didn't get the feeling that I had to keep using it when I tried it for 5 minutes. That was about as long as I needed to be slightly impressed with the way you zoom and move about in google maps, and also get annoyed with the wrist strain, the way my hand covers 25-50% of the map while I'm zooming, how I was unable to figure out how to change date in the calendar thingy (or whatever it was), and pissed off by the keyboard that just suddenly popped up for no apparent reason.

I just didn't see what the point of it was. I feel it's trying to carve out a niche which isn't really there, as if I wanted an iphone, I'd get one. If I wanted something with which I could read stuff, I'd probably want something half its size, like the Kindle 2. If I wanted something I could use on the run, I'd go for either a notebook or a proper laptop. I just don't feel like there's space for an intermediate device of the iPad's size.

[Quinton]

Everything you say is bad about the iphone is something that only us powerusers want to have.

It really doesn't have anything to do with good or bad.

Can you imagine everyone in the entire world using the same exact phone? 

It's just not going to happen.  Not even if you limit it to "everyone using the same smartphone".

[Prospero]

We've found the pad to be pretty useful. My wife uses it for studying; it's easier to juggle three cats and an iPad than it is 3 cats and laptop. I use it for watching TV while I do chores; it's really easy to wedge in weird places while I clean dishes or the floor. I'd say all told it gets at least a couple hours of use a day. If I could flag messages in the email app it would be pretty handy for quickly checking email for work, but that pretty much kills it for me.

I think the biggest reason I use the iPad over my laptop for a lot of things is I don't worry about it nearly as much. My laptop is way more expensive, fragile, and important. I never would bring my laptop into the kitchen to have access to a recipe whereas I do it regularly with the pad. If I get sauce on the screen it wipes right up. If I leave it on the couch and my 2 year old gets a hold of it the worse that will happen is he might rearrange my applications. The lack of physical keys makes it much more toddler resistant. It's nice to have a fairly decent computer-thing in the house that I don't have to worry about.

It's definitely not for everyone, and I don't see it entirely filling the niche that netbooks fill, but it has its uses.

[Tebonas]

My point is that the competitors should concentrate on usability first and on adaptability second. The adaptability should be hidden for the casual user and the important phone features should work out of the box.

You only need large changes in the user interface if the user interface doesn't work right. Otherwise slight changes that add missing features are just fine. Innovation is not a goal in itself. Its a means to an end in consumer device.

[Nerf]

You could just buy a netbook for less than 1/2 the price of an iPad and be able to do even more stuff with even less worry.  The iPad doesn't scream 'sturdy' to me - we stopped in the apple store a few weeks ago while at the mall and out of the 8 displays they had up, 3 were broken.  Way to market your shit, Apple.

[MahrinSkel]

We've found the pad to be pretty useful. My wife uses it for studying; it's easier to juggle three cats and an iPad than it is 3 cats and laptop. I use it for watching TV while I do chores; it's really easy to wedge in weird places while I clean dishes or the floor. I'd say all told it gets at least a couple hours of use a day. If I could flag messages in the email app it would be pretty handy for quickly checking email for work, but that pretty much kills it for me.

And *why* can't you do that?  Because unless you use a web-based email service (and it being your work account, you apparently can't), you're stuck with Apple's built-in application.  This is the weakness of the Walled Garden in miniature: If your "must have" feature doesn't make it over the wall, you're stuck.  Features missing from one version of the Android UI are present on others from a different vendor, third-party/open source solutions are often available, and in the worst case you can fix it yourself (assuming you have the needed skills).

This is why, after their strong start, iPad (and iPhone) are doomed: iPad/iPhone advances no faster and no further than Apple is capable/willing to do it.  Anything iPxxx can do, netbooks and Android will soon do as well, and then better.  More options will always exist on the other side of the wall; What if I think iPhone/iPod Touch is too small, but the iPad is too big?  What if I want a slider or clamshell physical keyboard, or a trackball?  What if I need a ruggedized model for use in an industrial environment?  If Jobs and company don't think of it, or don't think the niche is worth the dilution of their brand image, I'm out of luck.

Three basic physical formats (big screen, small screen, no screen) and the ability to drive external sound equipment was all people needed from an MP3 player, and most of them were okay with having to replace it every year or so when the battery died.  But people demand a lot more flexibility from a portable computing/communications device.

--Dave

[naum]

iPad is not a netbook/laptop replacement.

It's just a portable computing device, one meant for watching videos, playing games, reading ebooks/PDF, browsing the web, etc.…

Not a desktop computer or for serious work… …but on the couch, in the bedroom, in the kitchen, on the subway/plane, etc.… …I'd much rather have one of these than a Kindle, DS, PSP, etc.…

Many might prefer a netbook, but a netbook is a touch device — and there is a range of apps that are well suited for touch.

And you can't even enable one without owning (or having access) to a real computer.

Apple has sold 1M in the first month, eclipsing rate of original iPhone sales. Developers are flocking to the platform, despite the AppStore shenanigans.

[Righ]

But people demand a lot more flexibility from a portable computing/communications device.

I wish they did, but most don't really, which is why iPhones kept on selling like crazy until they ran out of AT&T customers. Now the term of that exclusive agreement is starting to look just a bit foolish. Whether you love them or hate them, iPhones have been good for the smartphone market. It took iPhone to give the market a touch based device with a third party application focus. I said back when it was released that I was more excited by what iPhone would do to the market and what it would cause the competition to respond with. I said the same thing of the iPad when it was announced - mostly because I think that this is a novel niche market that nobody had anticipated, not because iPad is a better anything else. I look forward to a touch based device the size and power of an iPad that costs half as much and runs Linux.

[Viin]

I agree the iPad has limited use. But for those few things, it should work really well. If I hadn't gotten my wife a Dell netbook already, I probably would have gotten her an iPad - it's just about perfect for recipe searching and general house-hold use (check email & weather, light chat on AIM, browse the web for more info on the guest actor appearing on Dr Who, etc).... huh. Anyone want to buy a Dell Mini?

I probably will get one unless I see an equivalent Droid device coming soon, as I want to be able to use it while flying but the 3G/GPS model is a bit pricey.

[Prospero]

And *why* can't you do that?  Because unless you use a web-based email service (and it being your work account, you apparently can't), you're stuck with Apple's built-in application.

Tis true, although the appearance of Opera Mini says to me that they are realizing this approach doesn't work. I plan on jailbreaking my pad which will also solve this problem. Not to say I don't agree with you; the walled garden approach is a big pain in the ass sometimes and I'd like to see them ease up on the app approval process.

Otherwise you are just ranting about how the market needs options, which again I agree. I don't think anyone seriously believes Apple is going to take over the computing world, and I think most reasonable people can agree that would be bad if it did happen. I think you are misguided though in saying that the iPad/iPhone are doomed. That same market is showing that a lot of people just want something pretty that mostly just works, and both iPad and iPhone succeed in that. i have yet to see a phone or pad like device that looks as good or feels as good in my hand as an Apple product. I think they are very pretty. The fuckers are good at hardware, which makes up for their shortcomings on the software side.

[Quinton]

Apple has sold 1M in the first month, eclipsing rate of original iPhone sales. Developers are flocking to the platform, despite the AppStore shenanigans.

Wellll, yes and no.  They included pre-orders (250k? or so) from a month or so prior and the press releases were clear that they counted channel fill as well.  Ask Palm about counting channel fill.  For my money, the delayed euro launch is all about creating another big event so that they can try to pain a much rosier picture on numbers.

They've once again recreated their goldrush around market, where most of those developers are not going to make much money, but there's a lot of excitement so good for Apple.

We'll see where the numbers are by the end of the year -- at that point there'll be a better picture of if there's sustained sales in the "high end netbook" market or not.

[MahrinSkel]

iPad is not a netbook/laptop replacement.

It's just a portable computing device, one meant for watching videos, playing games, reading ebooks/PDF, browsing the web, etc.…

But it's *not* a portable computing device.  Note that of the things you list there, only one (games) requires any *actual* computing (as opposed to decoding).  It's an information access device that happens to be able to do a little computing as a side effect of having the computational power to decode/decrypt/display information.  And the question is: As an information access device, does it represent a highly polished product leaps beyond the alternatives?  About the only good things you can say about as an information access device is that it is cooler-running and less unwieldy for that purpose than a netbook, and more capable of showing multi-dimensional (including time-variant) presentations of information than an e-ink based device.

The first claim is arguable (some would prefer a different screen size or format, and many netbooks run cooler and longer than the cut-down laptops they started out as), and the second is marginal (B&N's eNote has both an e-ink display and a smaller LCD display that runs only when needed, and would be far preferable if it ran a real OS and/or would let you access the Web).  Neither is such a leap forward as to mean instant obsolescence for the inadequate substitutes that came before (as happened to pre-iPhone smartphones), nor is it such a polished product as to force a mark to transition from geek-toy to commodity.

iPad sold one million units in the first month?  Big freaking whoop, netbooks sell more than 3M a month and still growing.  How many will it sell in the second month, how many people will see people using or hear people talking about their iPad and say "I have got to have one of those?".  At the end of the year, which will more people be using to surf the web from their couch or kitchen counter?  At the end of two years, after the netbook/eBook makers have had time to react to it, and Android has gotten past its growing pains?

Doomed, I say.  Doomed.

--Dave

[Quinton]

I don't think it's doomed -- but I firmly believe it's going to remain niche.  Just like their approach to laptops.  Steve has invented the iLifestyle high-end brand for the netbook category, though it is less functional than netbooks in a number of ways.

[Prospero]

Just because most people use it to consume information does not mean it's not a computer. That's just bat shit crazy.

[MahrinSkel]

Just because most people use it to consume information does not mean it's not a computer. That's just bat shit crazy.

If your interface with it is literally limited to handwaving, it is not a general purpose computing device.  If you can't write an application for it on the actual hardware, but have to do so on some actual computer running an SDK, it is not a general purpose computing device.  If you can't even re-arrange the data on it without connecting it to an actual computer....I could go on listing things that a "computer" is expected to do that the iPad does not, but we have pages of people explaining why the fact it doesn't do all of those things is actually a plus.

A PS3 or XBox is not considered a "computer", and you can do many of the things an iPad does not do on those.  Having a CPU doesn't make them a computer.  My 19 month old has toys with more processing power than a 1985 Cray XMP, but they aren't computers, either.

--Dave

[Prospero]

Yup, still bat shit crazy.

[Sheepherder]

I probably will get one unless I see an equivalent Droid device coming soon, as I want to be able to use it while flying but the 3G/GPS model is a bit pricey.

I'd still buy a GPS designed for aviation, I suspect the GPS and apps in the iPad are designed around automobiles.

[tgr]

I probably will get one unless I see an equivalent Droid device coming soon, as I want to be able to use it while flying but the 3G/GPS model is a bit pricey.

I'd still buy a GPS designed for aviation, I suspect the GPS and apps in the iPad are designed around automobiles.

I can see it now, iPads being mentioned specifically as Banned From Use During Driving.

[Jeff Kelly]

I could go on listing things that a "computer" is expected to do that the iPad does not, but we have pages of people explaining why the fact it doesn't do all of those things is actually a plus.

It IS a plus. The iPad has a clearly defined use case. It might not be useful to certain people (or at least not useful enough to warrant a purchase) but I can see a lot of people that actually would do a lot better with an iPad (or similar device) than they do now with a general purpose computer, including a lot of people currently bitching on forums about the uselessness of the iPad (disclaimer: this isn't directed at anyone in particular, especially no one in this thread).

We could argue about the semantics of the term 'computer' but it boils down to "things that a 'computer' is expected to do" which is a great idea for a philosophical debate but misses the point.

I know a lot of people that own computers but that don't really want to own computers. They want to use certain services and do certain things that you currently can only do on a computer, so they have one. It's a matter of necessity rather than choice.

The one thing they all have in common? They are confused by their own computers and despise working with them but do anyway because using certain services and apps is worth all of the trouble (if only slightly).

My whole family uses computers daily but they wouldn't miss anything if I'd switch them to an iPad instead of a Windows Box. They might actually enjoy it more though.

The general computing device you describe is a professional tool and to actually support that 'general' purpose it needs to be a more complex device.
Complexity that confuses the majority of people who don't really need a 'general purpose' device anyway. It was never supposed to be a consumer item and it was never desiigned to be one, yet is is used like one today because a lot of really great things are only accessible by owning one.

It's a little bit like having to buy a milling machine and lathe just because you sometimes need a wrench.

If it weren't for the internet most of the people in my family wouldn't even own a computer.

Things my family uses their computers for:

browsing the web
social networks
electronic mail
listening to music
watching videos
looking at photos
storage of all kinds of files (music, video, photos)
simple content creation tasks like writing a single page letter, simple video editing, organizing of files, simple photo editing.
Also correspondence slowly moves from physical letters to e-mail.

That most people actually use professional editing tools like Word or Open Office for such a simple task as writing a letter is a travesty.

That's a nearly exclusive list of things those computers are actually used for and I suppose most normal people (most non professionals) actually use it like that.

Excluding data storage, those are all things an iPad (or similar device) can do and that's the kind of demographic they are going after.

For that demographic most of the things listed in this or other threads are not disadvantages but rather advantages.

You can get all apps from a single source without having to search the web (and possibly landing on a scammers page)
The rigorous approval process and the locked down platform lead to more quality
The device is designed around single tasks managed by apps.
No mouse or physical keyboard is actually a plus (especially lack of a mouse) for people that are challenged by the concept of double-clicking or aming at pixels.

Suppose each iPad came with a dropbox account and 20 Gigs of storage (or 100, storage is cheap) then most people wouldn't even need a computer for storage purposes anymore.

The discussion about the iPad is largely confined to professionals. It's like engineers or mechanics talking about cars or machinery. A professional racing driver or a car mechanic might want lots of buttons, levers and knobs to tune the device and actually want to or need to understand, maintain and change every aspect of the device non professional driver only needs to get from A to B and doesn't want or need to be exposed to the compexity of a modern motorcar.

That's why you have normal cars with lots of computer support systems and a simple interface (they even did away with manual gear boxes) to hide all of that technical complexity and the physical complexities of driving but can only be maintained by professionals (but usually don't need to) and complex driving machines for professionals and enthusiasts.

The computer world will move in a similar direction. All purpose computers will revert back to being professional tools and a lot of todays computer use will be done on devices like the iPad in the future. This will open the market to a lot of people not currently owning computers or not really enjoying to use them.

[tgr]

I'm going to leave most of your post alone, but I've got to take a swing at a few of them:

The iPad has a clearly defined use case.

The way Jobs etc marketed it, it was going to be all things to all men. It was going to be awesome for gaming, for browsing the web, for doing the finances, reading a book etc etc etc, and it was so much easier than ever before. I call it too large for some of the tasks and too small for others, and too limited/awkward for most.

You can get all apps from a single source without having to search the web (and possibly landing on a scammers page)

Yay monopoly?

The rigorous approval process and the locked down platform lead to more quality

This is why I keep hearing about developers who won't update their apps because they might suddenly risk being rejected by this "rigorous approval process"?

No mouse or physical keyboard is actually a plus (especially lack of a mouse) for people that are challenged by the concept of double-clicking or aming at pixels.

Whereas using two fingers to zoom in and out is more intuitive? And having a "keyboard" that doesn't give any tactile feedback whether or not you're hitting one or two keys is also better? My experience was that of covering parts of the screen I was looking at while scrolling around, and a calendar not swapping dates by swiping from left to right (or vice versa), and starting to feel a slight wrist strain after 5 minutes or so. I didn't consider that to be something I could consider using for much more than 5-10 minutes at a time, or I would have to prop it up using a leg, putting it down on a table or the like.

I'm still giggling while thinking about the guy using an iPad at a conference, all hunched over his ipad he'd lain down in his lap. If he'd used a notebook, he'd be sitting in a much more relaxed position, but noooooo. iPad = hip = something he had to have, and thus must use as often as possible, as public as possible.

Personally, I could consider it a preview device while being out photographing, but I'm afraid even that's a bit of a stretch. I've been told I need to buy some sort of "connector" kit for 300NOK just to be able to read SD cards. I use CF. And apparently video can't be larger than 5MB or 640x480, or it'll be automatically compressed. So I can't use it to store videos, I guess.

I still am hard pressed why I should really buy this thing (hell, it hasn't even come to Norway yet it seems, according to apple.no's store), instead of a 2000NOK notebook. Seriously. The notebook I'm looking at has a bigger screen, native USB connectors (so I can attach my 1TB disks without having to buy a second thingie just to be able to do so), 160GB disk as standard, etc etc etc etc. And the only thing the iPad has that the notebook hasn't, is a touch interface, a complete lack of a physical keyboard, a new UI and an appstore where you can buy applications which might not be updated to fix potentially serious bugs because either the appstore license changed so the application's no longer viable, or the guy/gal evaluating the app is having a bad hair day and suddenly deciding that the application is no longer viable for sale.

[UnSub]

No-one should buy this version of the iPad. Apple will take a while to work out the kinks and by then some of these things will have shaken themselves out.

[AutomaticZen]

No-one should buy this version of the iPad. Apple will take a while to work out the kinks and by then some of these things will have shaken themselves out.

Ding ding ding!  At least wait until version 2 or 3.  And if someone makes a better Android alternative between now and then, them's the breaks.  I'd prefer something Kindle size.  The Kindle is still the perfect size for holding with one hand.

[Prospero]

appstore where you can buy applications which might not be updated to fix potentially serious bugs because either the appstore license changed so the application's no longer viable, or the guy/gal evaluating the app is having a bad hair day and suddenly deciding that the application is no longer viable for sale.

How is that different than buying software normally? I'm still waiting for a fix to make GTA 4 playable. Again, y'all have very valid arguments against pad-like devices, but then you say crazy shit like that and kill your own argument.

[Lantyssa]

Android surpasses iPhone.

Enjoy.

[Morat20]

No-one should buy this version of the iPad. Apple will take a while to work out the kinks and by then some of these things will have shaken themselves out.

I think the general problem is people aren't seeing an actual "use" for even a 2nd or 3rd generation iPad. It's a gadget looking for an actual market, and so far I just see a lot of justifications about how you use your iPad that don't really make me want to get one.

I'm sure so-and-so loves his (fuck, if I dropped that much money, I'd fucking make sure I loved it to) but....I can't see a compelling use for somethign that expensive that isn't met better by something less expensive. You can make the "it does all of that, and slices and dices too" argument -- but I don't find it compelling. Some of it is sheer mass -- I'll take smartphones that don't do it as well, but fit in a pocket -- over an iPad. Or if I'm going to have to lug around something that bulky, there are tablets and notebooks that do a better job. And I'll still have my phone. And iPod nano.

Too heavy, too pricey. It's a gadget for a demand that doesn't exist, and I don't see it creating a market. Maybe in two or three generations, that'll change.

[tgr]

How is that different than buying software normally? I'm still waiting for a fix to make GTA 4 playable. Again, y'all have very valid arguments against pad-like devices, but then you say crazy shit like that and kill your own argument.

Excuse me, what crazy shit? Those are two very different situations. One is where 1 publisher has the final say on whether or not an app is available for sale on a platform (and it can drop off the app store without warning I believe), the other is when the developer/publisher just don't give a flying fuck about the platform it's released on, it's only released to milk the PC gamers as well ... they've already made tons of money on the console version.

Apples and oranges.

[Sky]

GTA 4 isn't playable?

[MahrinSkel]

Apple isn't selling gadgets, they're selling a brand image where people show their individuality and creativity by owning devices that are literally identical to each other and can't be used to create anything.  It's kind of fun poking them, internet slapfight as Three Stooges routine ("It doesn't need to do more than it does, but these devices that do what it does better are too limited and don't do *everything* it does!"), but it gets boring.

Posers.  If you own anything with an Apple logo higher up the price chain than an iPod Nano, you're an idiot and nobody should have to listen to anything you have to say about technology, period.  Some leniency can be granted to people who bought an iPhone before the third generation, but only if they use it in private and wash their hands afterwards.

--Dave

[tgr]

GTA 4 isn't playable?

I haven't tried GTA4 on PC myself, but I've seen a friend of mine play it. It does not scale well when it comes to performance when you crank the resolution up to f.ex 2560x1600, and that's certainly not because the graphics are high up on the awesome scale.