So what's Mass Market Again? Conan hits 1M (shipped).

[Samwise]

When did Geldon get a new blog?

[Lakov_Sanite]

Jeez, this guy may be off his bi-polar meds.

first off, how the hell can aoc run on an xbox? secondly aoc is not going to break 1mil.

[tazelbain]

Doesn't publishing a game on a console require you to actually finish making it?

[schild]

Doesn't publishing a game on a console require you to actually finish making it?

Nope. Not even remotely a prerequisite anymore. There are buggy GBA games for christsake. And I don't mean Mario style wallhack bugs.

[cevik]

  Turn down the Fanboism, Cevik.  It's not a "zomg aoc=shadowbane" it's a "Hey, we've seen what happens when core shit doesn't work."  Would you prefer Vanguard? Matrix?

Man, all I said was that AoC isn't nearly as bad at launch as Shadowbane was.  I'm not saying AoC is good, I'm just saying it doesn't compete with Shadowbane on buggy code.

I hardly see where I'm an AoC fanboi.

EDIT:  While I have run into bugs in AoC, I have yet to find a case where "core shit doesn't work".  I play every night, I have a framerate between 20 on the low end and 150+ on the high end.  I haven't run into any bugs that have stopped me from progressing.  I have run into plenty of bugs, there are parts of the game that are clearly unfinished, and my class feels like it was thrown together by two monkeys who were high on pcp.  You know, the standard shit you fight through on a game release.  It's at least on par, if not better, than DAoC's release.  Not the best release I've seen, but comparing it to Shadowbane is just silly.  I didn't play Vangaurd or Matrix Online, so I don't know about either of those.

[Register]

  Turn down the Fanboism, Cevik.  It's not a "zomg aoc=shadowbane" it's a "Hey, we've seen what happens when core shit doesn't work."  Would you prefer Vanguard? Matrix?

Man, all I said was that AoC isn't nearly as bad at launch as Shadowbane was.  I'm not saying AoC is good, I'm just saying it doesn't compete with Shadowbane on buggy code.

I hardly see where I'm an AoC fanboi.

EDIT:  While I have run into bugs in AoC, I have yet to find a case where "core shit doesn't work".  I play every night, I have a framerate between 20 on the low end and 150+ on the high end.  I haven't run into any bugs that have stopped me from progressing.  I have run into plenty of bugs, there are parts of the game that are clearly unfinished, and my class feels like it was thrown together by two monkeys who were high on pcp.  You know, the standard shit you fight through on a game release.  It's at least on par, if not better, than DAoC's release.  Not the best release I've seen, but comparing it to Shadowbane is just silly.  I didn't play Vangaurd or Matrix Online, so I don't know about either of those.

Could "Core shit doesn't work" refer to the state of crafting, non-implementation of features like auction houses, itemization and tool tips to clarify the increment value of stats/abilities?

 

[schild]

Could "Core shit doesn't work" refer to the state of crafting, non-implementation of features like auction houses, itemization and tool tips to clarify the increment value of stats/abilities?

Not anymore, now that they've totally catered to the gnashing and wailing of PVP on the forums. All that stuff is very much secondary, obviously.

[cevik]

Could "Core shit doesn't work" refer to the state of crafting, non-implementation of features like auction houses, itemization and tool tips to clarify the increment value of stats/abilities?

 

Basically the same things that were all broken in DAoC on release, which is why I compared the two. ;)  Only in DAoC I constantly fell through the world and died everytime I ran through a city.  Which is why I said "if not better" because I've yet to fall through the ground in AoC.

It hardly approaches the list of shit that didn't work Shadowbane.

EDIT:  Ohh yeah, and I forgot, in DAoC the only way to get a decent framerate in the cities was to zoom in on the ground.

[Margalis]

Link to the referenced press release, please.  That blog is way too "AOC SUX BLIZZ ROOLS!" for me to take it at face value.  Not that I find the numbers hard to believe.

The post says "according to a recent press release" but then in the comments the guy says he has "inside info."

Um...yeah...

[schild]

Stop reading sites with, somehow, less credibility than Kotaku.

[lamaros]

I seem to remember everyone getting about 3 weeks extention to their first month in WoW due to the server issues. I personaly remember many crashes, loot issues, and server queues. I could probably check my account history...

21 free days up to the start of April. So I'm going to conclude that significant server issues lasted up to that point.

[sam, an eggplant]

AoC will never come anywhere remotely near approaching WoW. They had a strong launch with ~500k accounts; it remains to be seen how that number grows. I could see them picking up another couple hundred thousand from the 360 version at most. That's not piddly-shit, those are fantastic numbers, but a WoW-killer? Nah.

[Slayerik]

Could "Core shit doesn't work" refer to the state of crafting, non-implementation of features like auction houses, itemization and tool tips to clarify the increment value of stats/abilities?

Not anymore, now that they've totally catered to the gnashing and wailing of PVP on the forums. All that stuff is very much secondary, obviously.

Makes sense when that's how they promoted the game. I think I remember WoW AHs having some issues at launch, hell they weren't even connected between the towns. Itemization was way better for sure though, and obviously crafting...but who gives a shit about crafting :)

[UnSub]

WoW didn't launch with 10 million players - it grew that over time. One big question is whether or not Asia (you know, that big homogenous continent) will take to AoC like it took to WoW. Will AoC be allowed to enter China? If it does, AoC could see a huge player number boost.

Not that I think AoC will be the WoW killer, but I think too many people are discounting its potential for growth  assuming  bug fixes and content releases come out quick enough.

I loved that WoW Riot turn around - "OMG AoC is DOOOOOMED!" to "OMG AoC will DOMINATE!". Seriously, there's no coming back from that.

[sam, an eggplant]

Oh I'm well aware of that. I just think WoW is a far, far better game.

[Phred]

[ I think I remember WoW AHs having some issues at launch, hell they weren't even connected between the towns.

WoW ah's were connected together in beta so it's unlikely any server launched with them still not connected. They were already connected in open beta when I played.

[EvilJohn]

[preface] I played WoW quite a bit over the course of the first 24 months. Enjoyed it, and moved on. I am playing Conan now, very sporadically.

The blog poster (besides all the other complaints listed) is missing the point. There are two significant (if not dominant factors) to why AoC does NOT have the growth potential or success potential of WoW without a minor miracle.

A) WoW has grown the initial market for any MMOs after it. The reference to WoW releasing 280-300k in both initial territories is a complete misunderstanding of why Conan was able to release 700k... its because there were significantly more potential adopters out there... educated on MMOs rather than it being their first. Honestly, I'd be curious to see how many AoC players have not played ANY previous MMO... compared to WoW with a similar statistic.

So no... it doesn't mean what this blogger implies, and his whole list of references and conclusions come across incredibly amateurish.

B) AoC is still well within its honeymoon period for the average, non-cantankerous (read no one posting/reading a forum such as this  ) player. Even the people being critical of WoW's initial launch are likely still rose-colored to some extent over their recollections.

AoC is fun, I enjoy it, but I just can't fathom it cresting 1mil PAID subscribers ever, and likely not being able to retain over 500k (and I think I am being generous). That isn't a slam at all at the potential of AoC, but potential means peanuts when the end result is out there and being played.

Even Hellgate had potential... (yeah I went there)

[Falconeer]

I think it says a lot about what kind of monstrous phenomenon WoW was when so many people DIDN'T cancel despite having to wait 2-4 hours before logging in due to queues. That was if you didn't get a random disconnect, which meant you were done for the day. And that lasted for months and months...

Since then I've become totally uninterested in bug whining. If you are having fun with a game, you could endure kicks in the nuts as part of the subscription. If you are not, or not so much, you pay attention to everything that doesn't work well enough.
Most of the times it's not you are not having fun BECAUSE of what isn't working as intended, more like you get pissed and pay attention to what is not working as intended BECAUSE you are not having fun.

[Merusk]

Could "Core shit doesn't work" refer to the state of crafting, non-implementation of features like auction houses, itemization and tool tips to clarify the increment value of stats/abilities?

It could, if that's what you're playing it for.  I've always seen AoC as a pvp-centered game though, not a pve one.  That shit, apparently, doesn't work as advertised.  Read the thread waylander linked.  Plenty of PvPers already bitching about stuff.  THAT needs to get fixed.  Not to mention finding some way of taking part in a mere 48 vs 48 siege that doesn't sieze-up midline-spec machines while crippling high-end machines with <9 fps.

 All that's before the other shit outlined in the various threads. Hell, even Hoax said that the mechanics are shit and need fixing. http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=13522.msg466199#msg466199

[Venkman]

[ I think I remember WoW AHs having some issues at launch, hell they weren't even connected between the towns.

WoW ah's were connected together in beta so it's unlikely any server launched with them still not connected. They were already connected in open beta when I played.

What "connected"? There was IF, Ogr and Ratchet. And those aren't connected to each other (Ratchet just allows both sides to post). All of the AH outpost like SW and Darn came much later.

Otherwise, WoW was a good launch for about 50% of the players. It was fantastic in November. By January though, anyone on the East Coast U.S. was under crushing lag and anyone on the West Coast watched the Eastern Kingdoms lands crash pretty much weekly. I have no idea what the story was in EU. We were all convinced this was because the database wasn't being cleared until Tuesday maintenance, and ours was getting more filled up because we didn't have the valley of activity other areas of the world did (because Pacific/Mountain was also where Australians were told to play).

Edit: Oh and on that stupid "press release" and chart, we already ripped into Gutboy for posting that noise in the AoC sub-forum. Right away you know it's fake just from looking at the even spread of numbers. It's crap.

[Modern Angel]

Not only crap but two days ago he was slamming the game and said it only had 70k players in total.

Moreover, that site is the worst MMO site which people cite as serious I've ever seen. It is the high holy temple of the mouthbreathing caricature we have of WoW players, a blasphemous union of 4chan non-funny and specious 'facts'; for Christ's sake, they were featuring a video where one WoW player punched another WoW player because the punchee wouldn't say the words 'Archiminde rules'. It's populated by cartoons.

[cevik]

[ I think I remember WoW AHs having some issues at launch, hell they weren't even connected between the towns.

WoW ah's were connected together in beta so it's unlikely any server launched with them still not connected. They were already connected in open beta when I played.

WoW also printed free money on my printer during beta, got me a new girlfriend, and it handed out free blowjobs like candy.  AND ANYONE WHO DENIES THESE ABSOLUTE FACTS IS AN AOC FANBOI!1!

[Surlyboi]

Oh I'm well aware of that. I just think WoW is a far, far better game.

Well, that's where you'd be wrong. 

[Falconeer]

How come this is sticky now?

[schild]

Because Sticky is right below the forum button on my monitor. So when browsing, I by mistake hit it. A LOT.

[IainC]

Because Sticky is right below the forum button on my monitor. So when browsing, I by mistake hit it. A LOT.

Get a new monitor.

[cevik]

AoC is fun, I enjoy it, but I just can't fathom it cresting 1mil PAID subscribers ever, and likely not being able to retain over 500k (and I think I am being generous). That isn't a slam at all at the potential of AoC, but potential means peanuts when the end result is out there and being played.

Serious question time:  Have we ever seen a mmog that didn't continue to grow for at least a short while after it's first 30 days?

I see what I believe are some serious misconceptions around here as people seem to be under the impression that a vast majority, or even a sizable minority, of the players picked up the game on the first day, installed it and created an account on that day.  I suspect nothing could be further from the truth on a mmog launch.

Those numbers trickle in over the course of the first month, thus there will not be a cataclysmic event at the end of the first 30 days where suddenly the servers are empty due to all the cancellations.  There will always been a slow burn of outgoing customers and a slow stream of incoming customers.  The real question is will the incoming stream match or beat the outgoing?  I think it's easy to beat the churn rate for the first few months, not everyone sits on message boards all day lying about how wonderful WoW's release is, and thus not everyone is clued into the meme of the week when it comes to the latest mmog.

I suspect there are at least a couple of months of growth for AoC no matter what the press is, the real question is what happens after that.

[Slayerik]

I have noticed less people from my guild logging on, personally.

I'm not predicting server merges next week or anything, but there are some spots in the game that leveling is a real grind. Address that and getting endgame PVP implementation. While doing that, make the assassin not suck. Late spring/Early summer isn't exactly the best time to launch, though before WotLK and WAR was probably a good move. Should be interesting to see how the subs pan out to say the least, luckily it doesn't really bother me either way...I'm having fun.

[Miasma]

The amount of churn with people resubscribing will be interesting for AoC.  The game is really only half finished, you do have to grind out levels and a lot of people won't do that again.  I think for the most part people had fun though and will come back when they add in more content, then more will come back when they write the endgame.

I really wish we had server population numbers because I would find the difference in retention between the early access servers and the launch day servers fascinating.  Since they didn't launch with all the servers at the same time virtually everyone who was eager enough to pre-order are sitting on the same servers while the servers opened up on launch itself would contain people who bought later.  You have to imagine that since the vast majority of the organized guilds are sitting on the early access servers that the other ones will have more people drop out.  I'd also love to know what the difference is in number of max level chars, bosses killed, cities built, minigames played etc.

[Mrbloodworth]

I have noticed less people from my guild logging on, personally.

I'm not predicting server merges next week or anything, but there are some spots in the game that leveling is a real grind. Address that and getting endgame PVP implementation. While doing that, make the assassin not suck. Late spring/Early summer isn't exactly the best time to launch, though before WotLK and WAR was probably a good move. Should be interesting to see how the subs pan out to say the least, luckily it doesn't really bother me either way...I'm having fun.

Everyone i brought to the guild, has ALTS.

[Threash]

I really don't see a problem with grinding as long as its fast paced.  You can't compare six hours of single pulling mobs to gain one bar of exp if you are lucky in EQ to mass killing in atzels fortress for 2 levels in thirty mins, one is grinding the other is just leveling.  To me the only benefit of questing was if it increased the rate of leveling, and quest rewards.  I wouldn't want to grind the whole 80 levels but the mass slaughter that passes for grinding in aoc is still fun.

[Mrbloodworth]

Could "Core shit doesn't work" refer to the state of crafting, non-implementation of features like auction houses, itemization and tool tips to clarify the increment value of stats/abilities?

Not anymore, now that they've totally catered to the gnashing and wailing of PVP on the forums. All that stuff is very much secondary, obviously.

schild, the majority of AOC players are on PvP servers.

Did you know that the majority of Age of Conan players is playing on servers flagged for player vs. player activities? We do, and this month we are about to introduce a slew of drastic improvements that will breathe new life into this important gameplay feature!

Link

And Link

Not saying that PvE or rather across game system should be ignored, and i don't think they are. Its not like development can't happen at the same time.

[Slayerik]

I have noticed less people from my guild logging on, personally.

I'm not predicting server merges next week or anything, but there are some spots in the game that leveling is a real grind. Address that and getting endgame PVP implementation. While doing that, make the assassin not suck. Late spring/Early summer isn't exactly the best time to launch, though before WotLK and WAR was probably a good move. Should be interesting to see how the subs pan out to say the least, luckily it doesn't really bother me either way...I'm having fun.

Everyone i brought to the guild, has ALTS.

Oh, thats cool ... but not just you guys... I have some RL friends that haven't logged on in a week. A guildie that realized his 3 month old kid should come first, other assorted peeps. Just noticing less players in general currently.

[cevik]

Oh, thats cool ... but not just you guys... I have some RL friends that haven't logged on in a week. A guildie that realized his 3 month old kid should come first, other assorted peeps. Just noticing less players in general currently.

I hesitate to say anything, out of fear of being accused of being an AoC fanboi again, but I suspect that there may be bubbles of intense play as people initially pick up the game, followed by a ramping down time as players even out to more realistic for their lifestyle play times.   It's not necessarily an indication of  overall number of subscriptions.

I may be wrong, I'm not sitting server side on any of the major mmogs and I just don't have their tool sets to play with.  But it's just a sneaking suspicion I have.

Again I must point out that I do not believe that AoC is God's gift to gaming, I just suspect there is a little naivety around here from some of the posters.  Not you Slayerik, but some.

And take everything that I'm saying with the realization that I fully believe there is at least a 50% chance of AoC failing and dropping to fewer than 10k subs in the next 6 months.

[Nija]

PVP game or not, the "core shit" not working is what totally turned me away from the game. There were just too many things that should work, outright - with no questions asked - that didn't function at all.

I'm trying out sport PVP now. I quit wow before it really went in, and  finally has enough people so you can get a feel for how it works.