So what's Mass Market Again? Conan hits 1M (shipped).

[schild]

Age of Conan reaches one million milestone
- Standard edition sold out in numerous territories, hundreds of thousands additional copies now shipping -
- Officially number one on the charts in all major markets -

Durham, USA – June 6th, 2008 – Funcom is proud to announce that Age of Conan will pass the astounding “One Million Copies Shipped” milestone, in less than three weeks after the launch of the game. Due to overwhelming demand Funcom’s retail partner is now re-supplying retail boxes rapidly while also including new markets to the mix. As a result of the tremendous interest from gamers, Age of Conan has for the past few weeks been claiming number one spots on the sales charts across the western world – including the US, Germany, France and the UK – while receiving glowing review scores from gaming media.

Whoops. I guess M-Rated MMOGs are viable.

Join Bat Country today?

Edit: Shipped, blah blah, I know, bugger off with that shit. It'll sell 1M.

[apocrypha]

Age of Conan reaches one million milestone
- Standard edition sold out in numerous territories, hundreds of thousands additional copies now shipping -
- Officially number one on the charts in all major markets -

Durham, USA – June 6th, 2008 – Funcom is proud to announce that Age of Conan will pass the astounding “One Million Copies Shipped” milestone, in less than three weeks after the launch of the game. Due to overwhelming demand Funcom’s retail partner is now re-supplying retail boxes rapidly while also including new markets to the mix. As a result of the tremendous interest from gamers, Age of Conan has for the past few weeks been claiming number one spots on the sales charts across the western world – including the US, Germany, France and the UK – while receiving glowing review scores from gaming media.

Whoops. I guess M-Rated MMOGs are viable.

Join Bat Country today?

Edit: Shipped, blah blah, I know, bugger off with that shit. It'll sell 1M.

Selling a million is awesome, retaining half that number once the free 30 days runs out is another thing. I'm not naysaying, I hope they do it, I like the game a lot, but they've got a lot of serious problems to address to get decent retention.

[IainC]

Box sales are largely irrelevant. Shipped numbers are entirely irrelevant. Concurrent active subs is the number to look at. At launch they were quoting 700k shipped and then 400k players a week later.

[photek]

This was as expected in terms of shipped boxes. And also that the announcement hit this week especially after most people, even the super-slow levelers are reaching their 50's and finding lack of content. However with 400.000 subscribers now, I think that number will drop after the first month. I'm expecting 250.000 or so. I don't know what they were thinking with lack of content past level 50, and patching it at a later point seems to run the EQ2 route. And EQ2 was a decent game before and it was great after the big change, but still you cannot get back even 30% of the subscribers that left even after a miracle patch, people who leave have an visual image of how it was when they left and especially if they waited for a period for it to get fixed, but nothing happened.

I like the game, it's not that, but as someone said on EU forums, it is kinda like a payed beta testing. I agree on that. I don't see it being a mass marked game at this point, I think it's headed the LOTRO route. I might be eating my words if they are fast as hell to implement what is lacking, but I'll stand on the sideline, play it casually, play 8 alts and see what happens after a while.

[schild]

Every MMOG is paid beta test. Every. Single. One. Now and forever. It's just a matter of when they think it's worth the money and whether you do or not. You're paying for a service. Not a released game. On that same not, their patches have been frighteningly fast. I'm starting to worry whether their artists and coders get sleep, food, or oxygen at all these days.

Now for fun. Mark, this isn't a stab at you, but since this is YOUR Euro guy:

Box sales are largely irrelevant. Shipped numbers are entirely irrelevant. Concurrent active subs is the number to look at. At launch they were quoting 700k shipped and then 400k players a week later.

Long Term Subs > Box Sales > Beta Testers >

I want to know who started this fad about beta numbers and punch them right in the kisser. I fucking hate it. So, so, so much. PR Spams my inbox with this shit. And it's not just the north american market. Fuck the lot of them. PR that thinks they need to send out an update every time a number increments by 50 to 100k can crawl in a ditch and die alone.

[IainC]

1: I don't work for Mark Jacobs
2: I wasn't having a dig at AoC, I was just pointing out the logical fallacy you were pursuing.

Any company will trumpet whatever numbers it thinks will be newsworthy, AoC was also making a big noise about beta registrations, a company keeping quiet about that sort of thing or shipping 1m boxes is a marketing dept not doing their job. You've missed the entire point, well done.

[Murgos]

... after most people, even the super-slow levelers are reaching their 50's and finding lack of content...

You're waaaaay out of touch.  Most players haven't left Tortage, the bulk of them won't for another few weeks.

Anyway:

Join Bat Country today?

Does the apply for guild button not work or something?  Wtf do I have to do to get in the guild?

[Miasma]

Box sales are largely irrelevant. Shipped numbers are entirely irrelevant. Concurrent active subs is the number to look at. At launch they were quoting 700k shipped and then 400k players a week later.

It's not at all irrelevant.  Your concurrent active subs can never be greater than the number of boxes you sold.  The variable you say should actually be looked at is entirely dependant on the one you say is irrelevant...  If box sales double then the number of people subbed will double because with numbers this large we can only talk in percentages.  Say only 25% of people remain after the first month and become long term customers, at 400,000 sold that's 100,000 and at a million that's 250,000.

[Tale]

most people, even the super-slow levelers are reaching their 50's and finding lack of content.

LOL I'm a veteran MMOG player and I've barely hit level 30.

[WindupAtheist]

I really hope AoC keeps growing and tops a million subscribers.  Or at least beats peak EQ1.  We all know it'll never threaten WoW, but it would be nice if it got big enough to at least make the MMO market something besides the complete one-horse race it is now.

[Slayerik]

Just hit 40 here...though I have a 20 Conq as well. The game is fun, I'm not sure I care how many people end up sticking with it as long as my friends do...and I see no signs of any of them quitting anytime soon.

[Numtini]

I would tend more towards the most people are levelling very fast. I'm in a small guild, but I'm the lowest in the guild. I know that there were like 10 copies on Wiccana of the Conal instance a week ago and there were 4 last night.

There are a load of alts being rerolled though and a lot of them are stuck in Tort.

[Slyfeind]

This was as expected in terms of shipped boxes. And also that the announcement hit this week especially after most people, even the super-slow levelers are reaching their 50's and finding lack of content.

Huh. I wonder how well it would go, if 50 was the cap and then you started raiding. Then a month later, they raised it to 60, then more raids. etc. Hell with that, let's start the raiding sooner. You're capped at 30 at launch! Then raid for a month, then capped at 40, then more raiding, etc etc. (Of course, someone joining a year into the game would just see a huge level treadmill and miss all the raiding in-between.)

[photek]

most people, even the super-slow levelers are reaching their 50's and finding lack of content.

LOL I'm a veteran MMOG player and I've barely hit level 30.

Well maybe not that much time invested, I got five characters past 30 and I consider myself to have played causually until now, but seems the "median" leveling base currently is 40-50. At least on my server (Soulstorm PvP EU) and this server was opened 4 days after US launch. Tortage takes about 4-5 hours to complete once you have done it once, 20-30 takes about 4-5 hours, 30-40 takes about 7-10 hours depending where you quest and how efficient you are. Ah well say in a week then the median will be 50, it is still Eiglophian Mountains you are hitting and finding out that you gotta grind. My question is if this is how it is at level 50-60-70, what is there for 80 endgame ? Thinking even more about it, I still think there won't be more than 250-300k subscribers in this game throughout the summer.

EDIT: I lied, I got four characters past 30. My Guardian is at 27.

[Triforcer]

Schild is an AoC troll now?  The WAR release should be an epic troll/anti-troll war on par with his 2004 anti-WoW crusade   

[schild]

huh? I'm a wat?

[Mrbloodworth]

Here i allways thought that Box copies went to pay for the initial investment, and was used to pay out to inverters as the first, if not largest one time pay back. Subscriptions (while being the bread and butter) pay the rest of the initial investment, and support the games ongoing costs, as well as creates a profit margin above, and after the initial investment is paid out. Also, 1 million sold is to retailers, retailers tend not to order something that wont sell, but funcom already has its money from the sale to retailers.


But someone here said box sales mean nothing.... 

[Lightstalker]

But someone here said box sales mean nothing.... 

Boxes shipped != Boxes sold.  I think that's the point, though presumably if they are printing new boxes to put on shelves there is a high confidence that these, too, will sell.  It just hasn't happened yet and rubs the wrong way what with the early chicken counting.

[AcidCat]

Well I've been playing every day and my highest character is 32, I also have a 17, a 14, and a 13. Though I did start a few days after the game shipped, so far I like the pace of levelling.

[apocrypha]

Schild is an AoC troll now?  The WAR release should be an epic troll/anti-troll war on par with his 2004 anti-WoW crusade   

Well WAR and WOTLK are going to be the big slap in the face at the end of the year aren't they?

I think AoC is balanced on a knife edge. IF they can keep enough players for ~3 months and IF they keep a large enough team, with good focus and direction to fix enough of the glaring problems with AoC as it is now then they might weather the coming storm. Because 4-6 weeks after WAR live date is announced Blizzard will announce WOTLK live date and anyone trying to run a fledgling MMO with a complaining subscriber base that's just clinging on will start shitting themselves.

They've launched at a superb time in one respect. The market has grown enormously because of WoW but there's also a huge mass of people bored with the WoW grind and chasing epics, so AoC has picked up a lot of people who are hanging around waiting for WOTLK and/or WAR. But it's gonna be a short-lived honeymoon imo unless they really get the un-shiny bits polished up fast.

[Venkman]

But someone here said box sales mean nothing.... 

Boxes shipped != Boxes sold.  I think that's the point, though presumably if they are printing new boxes to put on shelves there is a high confidence that these, too, will sell.  It just hasn't happened yet and rubs the wrong way what with the early chicken counting.

Yes. Sell-in (boxes shipped) only gets you to retail. It's Sell-through that talks about boxes purchased.

But it's still not irrelevant because you can't ship to retail 1 million boxes unless they think they can sell them. I have no idea what the geographic breakdown is, nor whether this is like what WoW did by shipping to different territories not at the same time (probably a logistical/localization thing but damn did it make for a good marketing message).

In any case, it's good news. It's better news than the fake attempt at hitting the "million" mark that LoTRO tried a year ago (paraphrase: "we are the second biggest MMO because we have 1 million unique characters").

[photek]

WoTLK is coming before WAR. EA Mythic will not do the mistake of releasing WAR before the biggest contender. Rather let people play the new WoW, realize its mostly the same shit in different wrapping and then release it a few months after when people are burned out / bored. Win win situation if release after.

PS: AoC shows that the marked really is ready for more MMOs. Thats why I'm hoping they will do well, however their biggest contender right now is themselves as someone up here wrote. 1 mill SUBSCRIBERS by the end of the summer and watch the MMO marked blossom like hell. That would be massive plus for WAR also.

[Lakov_Sanite]

WoTLK is coming before WAR. EA Mythic will not do the mistake of releasing WAR before the biggest contender. Rather let people play the new WoW, realize its mostly the same shit in different wrapping and then release it a few months after when people are burned out / bored. Win win situation if release after.

PS: AoC shows that the marked really is ready for more MMOs. Thats why I'm hoping they will do well, however their biggest contender right now is themselves as someone up here wrote. 1 mill SUBSCRIBERS by the end of the summer and watch the MMO marked blossom like hell. That would be massive plus for WAR also.

burning crusade was much of the same shit as original wow and even if wotlk is same old same old people won't be bored of it for at least a good six months, I don't think WAR will want to wait that long.

[photek]

WoTLK is coming before WAR. EA Mythic will not do the mistake of releasing WAR before the biggest contender. Rather let people play the new WoW, realize its mostly the same shit in different wrapping and then release it a few months after when people are burned out / bored. Win win situation if release after.

PS: AoC shows that the marked really is ready for more MMOs. Thats why I'm hoping they will do well, however their biggest contender right now is themselves as someone up here wrote. 1 mill SUBSCRIBERS by the end of the summer and watch the MMO marked blossom like hell. That would be massive plus for WAR also.

burning crusade was much of the same shit as original wow and even if wotlk is same old same old people won't be bored of it for at least a good six months, I don't think WAR will want to wait that long.

WAR won't wait that long. I'm thinking the release of WAR will happend 2-4 months after WoTLK. I think EA Mythic know what they are doing and I hope to God they suck it up, stop being pussies and make sure to let people know that WAR is a direct contender to WoW. Aim for the throat. WoW veterans like myself will realise WoTLK is the same shit two days after release, hardcore PvE crowd will be pissed that epics are so easily accessible and PvPers will not give shit about Azshara Crater and farming Arena. Still they will sell multiple million boxes, people will have active subscriptions for a while, but they know (Blizzard) that 2009 will not be their best year. Thats why they got SC2 and a new MMO coming.

[Mrbloodworth]

But someone here said box sales mean nothing.... 

Boxes shipped != Boxes sold.  I think that's the point, though presumably if they are printing new boxes to put on shelves there is a high confidence that these, too, will sell.  It just hasn't happened yet and rubs the wrong way what with the early chicken counting.

Yes it does, it means boxes sold to retailers. This isn't consignment we are talking about here.

[shiznitz]

It is not technically consignment, but retailers can return product that doesn't move after XX days (XX being some contractually defined period.) Remember that the incremental production cost of a new AoC box is quite low given the potential economic benefits of a 6 month subscriber. It is in Funcom's (and their publisher's) interest to make sure that AoC is readily available for at least the next 3 months. Then the box presence can dwindle a bit until the first expansion hits the shelves.

[schild]

Funcom should get this shit on Steam.

[Brogarn]

nm. not the place for it. Carry on!

[Lakov_Sanite]

WoTLK is coming before WAR. EA Mythic will not do the mistake of releasing WAR before the biggest contender. Rather let people play the new WoW, realize its mostly the same shit in different wrapping and then release it a few months after when people are burned out / bored. Win win situation if release after.

PS: AoC shows that the marked really is ready for more MMOs. Thats why I'm hoping they will do well, however their biggest contender right now is themselves as someone up here wrote. 1 mill SUBSCRIBERS by the end of the summer and watch the MMO marked blossom like hell. That would be massive plus for WAR also.

burning crusade was much of the same shit as original wow and even if wotlk is same old same old people won't be bored of it for at least a good six months, I don't think WAR will want to wait that long.

WAR won't wait that long. I'm thinking the release of WAR will happend 2-4 months after WoTLK. I think EA Mythic know what they are doing and I hope to God they suck it up, stop being pussies and make sure to let people know that WAR is a direct contender to WoW. Aim for the throat. WoW veterans like myself will realise WoTLK is the same shit two days after release, hardcore PvE crowd will be pissed that epics are so easily accessible and PvPers will not give shit about Azshara Crater and farming Arena. Still they will sell multiple million boxes, people will have active subscriptions for a while, but they know (Blizzard) that 2009 will not be their best year. Thats why they got SC2 and a new MMO coming.

Not wanting to make every thread about wow but two things

one: war won't be a direct contender, yes it might be fun but come on, have you seen it? it's got doac 2.0 written all over it. I hope one day there'll be a wow-killer but the game that does it will be better funded and better designed from the get-go.

two: a lot of vitriol about wow always seems to be reactionary with no basis in reality. People did not leave the game in droves when BC came out and trivialized their epics or all their work, nor did they leave when they saw it was just another big grind.  wotlk will be the same old but that's what people seem to like so I don't see how your argument has any logical basis.

there's fanboy-ism and apparently anti-fanboyism and both are equally delusional.  I'm just an mmo addict I guess, games don't hold my loyalty, fun does so i go where that is.

In closing and feel free to enshrine this post for posterity...if WAR releases a month or two after wotlk, it will be the single most boneheaded move in mmo history.

[Montague]

Schild is an AoC troll now?  The WAR release should be an epic troll/anti-troll war on par with his 2004 anti-WoW crusade   

Well WAR and WOTLK are going to be the big slap in the face at the end of the year aren't they?

I think AoC is balanced on a knife edge. IF they can keep enough players for ~3 months and IF they keep a large enough team, with good focus and direction to fix enough of the glaring problems with AoC as it is now then they might weather the coming storm. Because 4-6 weeks after WAR live date is announced Blizzard will announce WOTLK live date and anyone trying to run a fledgling MMO with a complaining subscriber base that's just clinging on will start shitting themselves.

They've launched at a superb time in one respect. The market has grown enormously because of WoW but there's also a huge mass of people bored with the WoW grind and chasing epics, so AoC has picked up a lot of people who are hanging around waiting for WOTLK and/or WAR. But it's gonna be a short-lived honeymoon imo unless they really get the un-shiny bits polished up fast.

Up until a week after launch I felt this way as well. However, I think that WoW fatigue is more pronounced than most people realize, plus AOC has a lot of momentum in its favor. Funcom still needs to get its shit together, don't get me wrong, but I think its more a situation of retaining their massive growth and keeping up momentum vs. a matter of success or failure. The success metric has already left the barn, IMO.

[Lantyssa]

Well maybe not that much time invested, I got five characters past 30 and I consider myself to have played causually until now, but seems the "median" leveling base currently is 40-50. At least on my server (Soulstorm PvP EU) and this server was opened 4 days after US launch. Tortage takes about 4-5 hours to complete once you have done it once, 20-30 takes about 4-5 hours, 30-40 takes about 7-10 hours depending where you quest and how efficient you are. Ah well say in a week then the median will be 50, it is still Eiglophian Mountains you are hitting and finding out that you gotta grind. My question is if this is how it is at level 50-60-70, what is there for 80 endgame ? Thinking even more about it, I still think there won't be more than 250-300k subscribers in this game throughout the summer.

I'm not going anywhere near this fast a rate.  I know I'm slow, but I'm easily averaging 2-3 times this.  I'm reasonably competant at games though, so I'm not sure I'm behind the curve.

[CharlieMopps]

Funcom should get this shit on Steam.

Agree'd X10

[Merusk]

I'm not going anywhere near this fast a rate.  I know I'm slow, but I'm easily averaging 2-3 times this.  I'm reasonably competant at games though, so I'm not sure I'm behind the curve.

But you're easily distracted.   *jingles keys*

My wife plays 2-3 times as much as me, and always levels slower.  She gets distracted along the way, and I just focus and grind-grind-grind at whatever game it is.  Yeah, I read quest flavor but it's usually while killing things, or on the way to the objectives.  I'd say it's a male/ female thing since all my anecdotal evidence (based on husband/wife pairs usually) points at that, but I'm certain there's females out there who blow me away on the focused "hit the next achievement/ level" mentality.  

For some of us it's the destination, not the journey.  You enjoy it AFTER you get "there."

[Venkman]

WAR won't wait that long. I'm thinking the release of WAR will happend 2-4 months after WoTLK.

Holiday 2008 is sort of the guessed range for both of these launches, and there just isn't a lot of time in that window. Sure, retailers want their holiday stock by September. Raise your hand if you think WoTLK is going to launch anytime near that though November or they'll do a BC again, which to me is the smarter thing: why add your noise to the holiday noise when you can go up against nobody in January... only works for hugely successful titles though.

Funcom should get this shit on Steam.

Fer surez!

[Evildrider]

Leveling is super fast in AoC..  I'm at level 46 and I've been playing DDO more, than AoC still since it came out.