Who DOES Blizzard need to fear?

[squirrel]

Someone mentioned earlier: Why aren't subscriptions a good indicator of a games popularity?


Answer:
Sub numbers are a good indicator of a games popularity when there is a decent selection of games on the market, in fact currently, there are not a decent selection of games on the market. Sub numbers are a bad indicator when there are fewer offerings on the market, meaning people settle for what they're comfortable playing.

<snip>

Thats what Blizzard fears in 2007.....

Apologies for the editing but it was a long post. And to the topic - are you fucking kidding me? Are you too young to remember the past?

Honestly here's the problem with your argument:

a). There are more MMORPG's available to the consumer now than at any other time in gamings history. Fact. (DAoC, SB, EVE, EQ1, EQ2, UO, AO, AC1, Lineage 1/2, DDO, FF, WWIIOL et al.) That more are on the horizon or these are old titles is irrespective of the argument, there's more choice now than ever before.

b). As an EVE player (and a SB, DAoC, ACDT, WoW player) I can assure you that WoW refugees are not the catalyst for EVE's growth. If I had to attribute it to another game in fact I would point to the alienated SWG player base, but in general I think EVE is doing a great word of mouth job attracting the PvP crowd from all games in the genre.

c.) Subscription numbers ARE everything. You're smoking crack if you think that any of the major publishers in the genre are willing to settle for the 150k level of sustenance now. You talk about player churn and subs as if this was a close race. IT'S NOT. I don't link to he that shall not be named charts but go take a look at WoW's current market share. It's s joke. WoW now defines this market. You cannot trivialize or dismiss that level of commercial success as simply a consumer phase that resulted from a lack of competition. It's not. WoW now OWNS diku-mog. Totally.

d.) No upcoming title can even be categorized as a threat to WoW IMO. I'm looking forward to Warhammer, but it won't get more than 250k. Noone will. Come January with Burning Crusade WoW will hit 8+ Million worldwide in 2k7. Vanguard will dissapoint big-time #'s wise.

As others have said, Blizzard need only fear itself at this point. They have all the power of their existing product with the additional network economy effects. No other diku is going to catch them, we all know it.

[Venkman]

I understand theory, basically that there have been no options since WoW has released. I suppose it has some value, but there HAVE been games released. Lots of smaller games, one notably being D&D. There are games coming out in 2007, but none of them seem to be shaping up to be blockbusters. They all seem to be the type of game that hitting 300k subs would be a huge success. While the quantity may be higher than it has been the last couple years, it still just seems like more of the same, and therefore I have no reason to expect we'll see any extraordinary amounts of migration.

This is my point, and has been an ongoing discussion since there were more than three well-played games in the genre. Just replace "WoW" with "EQ" and then (arguably) "FFXI", since it hit more numbers.

It's not that there haven't been "no" options. It's that, compared to WoW, almost everything else is an indie production, even when they weren't supposed to be. But again, the same was said in the era of EQ dominance too.

There are people who don't do anything unless lots of other people are doing it to. This is the success-breeding-success factor. In general, you get a lot of followers to fall into an already existing experience. Meanwhile, the envelope pushers/trendspotters are both less numerous in number and more discerning. At least nowdays. Three years ago you could label something "MMO" and get 50k registered easy. Nowadays the quality standard (as in, what it looks like, how stable it is, and whether it is immediately fun) are all much higher.

This happens to anything that matures, and MMOs are starting to.

As an EVE player (and a SB, DAoC, ACDT, WoW player) I can assure you that WoW refugees are not the catalyst for EVE's growth

Yea. They have SWG NGE to that for that :)  *runs*

WoW now defines this market. You cannot trivialize or dismiss that level of commercial success as simply a consumer phase that resulted from a lack of competition. It's not. WoW now OWNS diku-mog. Totally.

Unless you measure success differently. 7mil accountis alot. But the amount it cost to make WoW far exceed every other game. They need a lot more accounts. Eve does not. ATITD does not. SL does not. The list goes on.

Then forget subs for a sec and go with RMTing. The average person turns a lot more revenue for hte company individually in an RMT situation than they do in a flat-fee one. This is specifically why so many companies are trying to import the concept to the U.S. It will happen because there's too much potential to it already being realized to ignore. It just won't be for the WoW set. It'll be for the next one, the younger players, of which there are way more of them than us, and the baggage we carry.

[Yegolev]

As an EVE player (and a SB, DAoC, ACDT, WoW player) I can assure you that WoW refugees are not the catalyst for EVE's growth

Yea. They have SWG NGE to that for that :)  *runs*

I will third this notion.  WoW is the new EverCrack and I have not been able to lure friends into EVE that are currently neck-deep in the WoW raid-for-items culture, only the one who was getting his fantasy diku on in EQ with me.  He's also got the personality for EVE, whereas my other friends would find EVE too punishing or freeform or boob-less.  The WoW playerbase just isn't the sort to want to try EVE, it's too different in every aspect.

SWG, I didn't play, but the surge in EVE subs (currently 150k if you believe CCP) coincides with the CU/NGE timing according to all the reports I hear.  I expect there are a lot of SB players that came over after reading about the large-scale scams that sometimes pop up on places like mmorpg.com and such.  Once they bothered to investigate EVE and got a peek at the political maneuvering, forum dickwaving, territorial wars, station sieges, etc., I think they saw familiar gameplay and jumped in.

[Xuri]

Trade and community happens in the massive-multiplayer portions of pre-20 Conan. It's the required-MMO/PvP stuff that kicks in thereafter. Think GW public space with single-player instances for 25% of your levels.

That's different from what I thought, but still just as gay in it's own special way.  I'm no fan of forced grouping, but not being able to group at all for the first twenty levels?  Are they charging me a monthly fee while I'm doing this shit?

No. A quote from the lead developer of AoC:

At all times you are actually playing against our servers, and you will be able to send/receive tells to and from friends playing in the MMO part of the game. You will have to enter your credit card, and also gain access to the full month of free play time in the MMO part of the game. The players will be able to enter the MMO at level 20, were you also choose your specialized class. Even without paying any monthly subscription you will be able to play the solo campaign as long as you want, and as many times as you like – as long as you have a valid CD key and have registered a Credit card.

ShackNews, 16th June 2006 (Gaute Godager)

[Trippy]

Trade and community happens in the massive-multiplayer portions of pre-20 Conan. It's the required-MMO/PvP stuff that kicks in thereafter. Think GW public space with single-player instances for 25% of your levels.

That's different from what I thought, but still just as gay in it's own special way.  I'm no fan of forced grouping, but not being able to group at all for the first twenty levels?  Are they charging me a monthly fee while I'm doing this shit?

No. A quote from the lead developer of AoC:

At all times you are actually playing against our servers, and you will be able to send/receive tells to and from friends playing in the MMO part of the game. You will have to enter your credit card, and also gain access to the full month of free play time in the MMO part of the game. The players will be able to enter the MMO at level 20, were you also choose your specialized class. Even without paying any monthly subscription you will be able to play the solo campaign as long as you want, and as many times as you like – as long as you have a valid CD key and have registered a Credit card.

ShackNews, 16th June 2006 (Gaute Godager)

That's sounds more like "sort of". From what you quoted it sounds like if when you first get the game and you don't "turn on" the MMO portion of the game, you can play the single player stuff as much as you want without being charged. However, once you activate the MMO portion, even if you go back to playing the single-player part, it's still charging you for a month's worth of MMO access -- i.e. the MMO access "timer" doesn't stop if you playing the single-player if you have MMO access turned on. If you cancel the MMO access then you can still continue to the play the single-player part for free.

[caladein]

It saddens me deeply when I hear WoW players who are "in the know", who do check out MMO websites, and do keep up to date on the latest releases -- and the only thing that they think might be mildly better than WoW is WAR. And that's just because it's being touted as WoW+1 in it's alpha nobody-really-knows-anything-yet stage.

Agreed.

[edit] Besides all that, I think WAR will hurt Guild Wars more than it hurts WoW.

Because it has the most interesting take of the first batch of WoW-clones? WoW + PvP sounds a lot more interesting then WoW + Hobbits or WoW + Electrodes to the Scrotum.

Since no one is really spending $50mil+ on something right now, they can't afford the breadth of WoW while maintaining polish (because half-baked thankfully won't cut it anymore). So either they try it all and fail or try to take as much of WoW as they can and add their own emphasis. Knowing that, WAR is the only thing even remotely on my (and a lot of my friend's/guildmate's) radar for that reason.

EVE, GW, Huxley, or AoC I see as different beasts. For me, they're something different, they're Lineage 2 during my last few seasons of CAL-BF42 (after playing FPSs forever). So they hold my interest not as Robot Jesus, but because they're something that isn't WoW.

Hell, I've even lost interest in WAR because the WoW expansion is addressing just about every complaint I had about WoW's PvP.

[Falconeer]

I know what Blizzard has to fear: World of Warcraft Trading Card Game
Seriously, I'm enjoying it way more than the MMORPG.

[dEOS]

The next MMORPG to be feared by Blizzard is the next one that will launch after having a beta that doesn't use NDA.
All MMORPG that have used NDA during betas to protect info leaks have been fiasco.

[Sunbury]

On a somewhat related note, "American Dad" did a  (unnamed) MMORPG story just like South Park did a WoW-related story.

Since it takes like 8 months from concept to air, it can't be a copy cat idea.

Does this indicate that MMORPGs have reached "mainstream pop-culture consciousness" (whatever that means) because of WoWs player base?

[HaemishM]

They reached that status when Dave Chappelle started talking about how much WoW he played.

[Trippy]

I thought it was when Curt Schilling talked about how much EQ he played.

[Driakos]

No no no, it was when Robin Williams talked about playing WoW.

[Nebu]

No no no, it was when Robin Williams talked about playing WoW DAoC.

Fixed

[Rasix]

No no no, it was when Robin Williams talked about playing WoW DAoC.

Fixed

Found links for BF2 and WoW.  I saw him mention DAoC in an interview, but not actually say that he played it.

And yes, before you ask, I'm bored.  Waiting for the wife to bring home some food  :-D

[Fabricated]

Robin Williams is a long admitted gamer, and a pretty hardcore one at that. He played Team Fortress Classic and was a sniper in that too. I think he played Counterstrike and Day of Defeat as well.

[Raph]

The average person turns a lot more revenue for hte company individually in an RMT situation than they do in a flat-fee one.

Actually, the typical ARPU figures I have seen range from as low as $5 to as high as $30. Based on multiple subholders, I'd estimate that typical ARPU for a sub-based MMO is around $30-$37.

The thing about microtransactions is that you make it up in volume (as subs provide a barrier to entry to the product and a high price threshold), plus you don't have the artificial barrier at the high end of the spending scale; people can and do spend $1000's.

[Morat20]

Robin Williams is a long admitted gamer, and a pretty hardcore one at that. He played Team Fortress Classic and was a sniper in that too. I think he played Counterstrike and Day of Defeat as well.

I dunno if I could live down the shame of being WTFpwned by Robin Williams. Then again, I suck at FPS games. (Only one I ever finished was Dark Forces II. I keep meaning to buy Halo 2.....).

[WindupAtheist]

I'd get pwned by Robin Williams just to hear the shit-talk over voice chat.

[Cheddar]

I'd get pwned by Robin Williams just to hear the shit-talk over voice chat.

[sinij]But you cant because you carebears destroyed an entire MMOG and are pussies and hide in safe zones! [/sinij]

[DataGod]

"Apologies for the editing but it was a long post. And to the topic - are you fucking kidding me? Are you too young to remember the past?"

Oh lets not get into ageism shall we.....I really liked playing dungeon master on my commadore 64 with its tape drive that took 30 minutes to laod a 1mb game....what about you?

"Honestly here's the problem with your argument:

a). There are more MMORPG's available to the consumer now than at any other time in gamings history. Fact. (DAoC, SB, EVE, EQ1, EQ2, UO, AO, AC1, Lineage 1/2, DDO, FF, WWIIOL et al.) That more are on the horizon or these are old titles is irrespective of the argument, there's more choice now than ever before."

I wasnt arguing about volume of choice, I was commenting about volume of new releases of 3rd generation titles, its obvious that the bell curve (at least to me) contains the newest, shiney, thats what people flock to, its also quite obvious that the area under the curve is dominated by WOW. Choice and a products position in the market does not indicate that one product is more superior to another product, there can be correlations, but no not always....

Examples: There are choices in cars, but Im sure youd rather be driving a new Jag rather than a Model A (unless your a classic games car enthusiast) especially if all your friends are driving new Jags.

PS: You forgot M59


b). As an EVE player (and a SB, DAoC, ACDT, WoW player) I can assure you that WoW refugees are not the catalyst for EVE's growth. If I had to attribute it to another game in fact I would point to the alienated SWG player base, but in general I think EVE is doing a great word of mouth job attracting the PvP crowd from all games in the genre.

As an EvE player I can assure you that SWG refugees are a part of EVE's growth as well, from the point of the NGE, until maybe 5 months ago. I also attrribute it to PVPers playing WOW getting board......


c.) Subscription numbers ARE everything. You're smoking crack if you think that any of the major publishers in the genre are willing to settle for the 150k level of sustenance now. You talk about player churn and subs as if this was a close race. IT'S NOT. I don't link to he that shall not be named charts but go take a look at WoW's current market share. It's s joke. WoW now defines this market. You cannot trivialize or dismiss that level of commercial success as simply a consumer phase that resulted from a lack of competition. It's not. WoW now OWNS diku-mog. Totally.

Are subscriptions everything? Or are active accounts everthing? Or are actual unique players everything? or are registered users everything? SL has 1.3 million registered but 10-20k concurrent at any one time.

I dont know, I'd say 150k subs is a nice longtail niche and likely a decent ROI for a small to medium or even indie publisher. I dont know the motives of what drives a major publisher, perhaps you can enlighten me, but I will say this, not even the president of Vivendi thinks anyone should be spending 60+ million making a game (raph had a link to the speech on his site). The conclusion then that I draw as an observer is that attempting to "race" is likely not a good idea. Therefore that leaves  those who dont want to burn 60+m with another choice: create more games, cheaper, in less time.

"WOW now defines this market"

So what your saying is every MMO developer should either be looking to raise some VC money to the tune of 60+m or just throw in the towel, call it a day and go work doing something else? Because WOW has magically innovated as far as this genre can go? I call bullshit, go visit multiverse, go visit SL, go visit any of the many free casual online games available.....

The era of the blockbuster movie is comming to a close, so to with games. WOW was the last 60m huzzah....WOW is to MMO what the backstreet boys are to music (A The Longtail refferance). I dont dismiss its commercial success, it was brilliantly executed for optimal optimization and adoptation bringing new players into the genre.

So is Mc Donalds



d.) "No upcoming title can even be categorized as a threat to WoW IMO. I'm looking forward to Warhammer, but it won't get more than 250k. Noone will. Come January with Burning Crusade WoW will hit 8+ Million worldwide in 2k7. Vanguard will dissapoint big-time #'s wise."

I actually agree with this (partially) no one is a threat to Myspace either, and yet large (and small) alternatives exist side by side in the market place.....slowly gaining users as the suckage factor increases. What Im saying and my point was that while WOW wont miss 50-100k here and there (actually I think they would because money is money, and theyre very attentive to the bottom line) 50-100k X 5 or X 10 or X 20? well now your talking a bleed.....a net loss.

You seriously think they'll get another 800k users because they added an end game expansion people cant access until the current level cap? Tell you what I'll trade you crack, mines apparently pretty good. (I'll give them 50K + more accounts as en estimate but those are all the banned gold farmers releveling toons)

Warhammer at 250k to 350k and thats bad how? I'd say thats very respectable. Even 60-100k for Vanguard will be decent for long term ROI for Brad, good for him, at least its not a clone of the thing that defines the market eh?


As others have said, Blizzard need only fear itself at this point. They have all the power of their existing product with the additional network economy effects. No other diku is going to catch them, we all know it
And why would anyone want to? When they could made nearly 6 other games for the same price with a decent ROI?

[Damn Dirty Ape]

As an EvE player I can assure you that SWG refugees are a part of EVE's growth as well, from the point of the NGE, until maybe 5 months ago. I also attrribute it to PVPers playing WOW getting board......

I can't imagine why anyone, especially a PvPer, would play WoW for getting board.  The game doesn't even have a lumberjack skill!

[Signe]

That was really corny.   

[Damn Dirty Ape]

Wow, what a really great audience.

[Driakos]

You seriously think they'll get another 800k users because they added an end game expansion people cant access until the current level cap? Tell you what I'll trade you crack, mines apparently pretty good. (I'll give them 50K + more accounts as en estimate but those are all the banned gold farmers releveling toons)

I think you are going to end up eating that.

10 million by next fall (2007) would be a modest guesstimate (if BC launches in January).

[Viin]

I also don't see how an expansion will increase subs. Granted, they are increasing subs all the time, but will it boost that growth? Or just keep their current playerbase from leaving for a while longer? (Thus the win to loss ratio might lower a bit).

[Cheddar]

I also don't see how an expansion will increase subs. Granted, they are increasing subs all the time, but will it boost that growth? Or just keep their current playerbase from leaving for a while longer? (Thus the win to loss ratio might lower a bit).

I was under the impression that the primary point of releasing expansions is to draw in new players and cancelled subs.  Taking what we have seen in the past (via furry boys graphs) we can probably speculate a 20% growth rate.  I could be wrong.  From a design perspective, what is the primary objective for an expansion?  Raph?  Lum?  Bueller?

[UnSub]

The BC expansion will see a spike in the numbers... but by how much is anyone's guess. All the stuff I, a non-WoW player, hear about BC is that it is end-content centric. Given I haven't even started on the beginning content, the expansion means nothing to me.

WoW has re-written a number of MMOG rules, so it will be interesting to see if the expansion really does boost player numbers up to 10 million or if the upwards spike is just a small trend (ie 500k). Are there really hordes of WoW players out there who have unsubbed and just waiting for the hot new thing, or are they just not active right now but still paying the monthly fee?

[Trippy]

[...stuff deleted...]

Use the quote tags.

[Threash]

You seriously think they'll get another 800k users because they added an end game expansion people cant access until the current level cap? Tell you what I'll trade you crack, mines apparently pretty good. (I'll give them 50K + more accounts as en estimate but those are all the banned gold farmers releveling toons)

Oh this is going to be fun to bump when they hit 10 million users 3 months after the expansion, yeah that my prediction, though most of them will be returning customers (that arent currently counted on the 7.5mil).

[WindupAtheist]

People here still seem to think WoW is populated by savvy MMO players worried about whether the expansion is endgame-centric or not.  Wrong.  You fail.  It's populated by millions and millions of normal gamers who've never played an MMO before WoW, have never purchased an MMO expansion before, are used to buying expansions for their normal games, and who are going to walk into that store and think "SWEET NEW WOW BOX IT WAS ON SOUTH PARK LOL!"

Ten million within three months?  I don't know, they may not be printing discs that fast.  Ten million within the first six to twelve months?  You bet your ass.  And the guy who predicted a gain of a mere 50k needs to quit smoking catnip.  A gain of 50k would be well under one percent, and may as well be zero.  They ban 50k people for cheating every couple months and never miss them.

[caladein]

Ten million within three months?  I don't know, they may not be printing discs that fast.  Ten million within the first six to twelve months?  You bet your ass.

If their patching system didn't blow goats they could probably move up to Money Sombreros just selling the keys from their site (at full price even). Of course, University IT departments are probably very glad that isn't going to happen.

Still though, throw me in the "10mil in six months" bracket. If Blizzard gets their Asian distribution deals cleared up quick, three months doesn't look so impossible.

[eldaec]

I also don't see how an expansion will increase subs. Granted, they are increasing subs all the time, but will it boost that growth? Or just keep their current playerbase from leaving for a while longer? (Thus the win to loss ratio might lower a bit).

Because they put your box back on the retail shelves, and because they always have increased subs of every MMOG ever.

I don't link to he that shall not be named charts

SirBruce is not 'he who shall not be named'. 'He who shall not be named' phd, is the author of a series of spacecraft "simulations". He became 'he who shall not be named' because of his habit of using search engines to seek out message boards that mention him or his "product" and then vomit-posting all over them. Sirbruce on the other hand is just a dick with too much time on his hands; lets not go giving him airs.

[Ironwood]

He still reads the site tho.  You've just offended him beyond his ability to reply.  Shame on you.

[Morat20]

SirBruce is not 'he who shall not be named'. 'He who shall not be named' phd, is the author of a series of spacecraft "simulations". He became 'he who shall not be named' because of his habit of using search engines to seek out message boards that mention him or his "product" and then vomit-posting all over them. Sirbruce on the other hand is just a dick with too much time on his hands; lets not go giving him airs.

Okay, I'm showing my newbness here -- someone PM me the story on that one, please. I gotta know who it is.

[HaemishM]

Serek Dmart, Serek Dmart, Serek Dmart.