Who DOES Blizzard need to fear?

[Cheddar]

Vanguard: 150,000  -  Those icky crazy EQ catasses do exist, just not in as great a number as Brad wishes.

Lord of the Rings: 90,000 - The D&D brand didn't help Turbine much, and neither will this one.

PoTBS: 40,000 - Still smells like an indie shitpile to me.

Warhammer: 300,000 - I'm being optimistic.  Being just a non-Blizzard WoW is asking to get owned.  Then again, even if it gets written off as a WoW-clone, at least it's a clone of something people like.  And Mythic at least isn't a bunch of fuckups.

Conan: 150,000 - Some novel features and gore should get them to this point.

Warcraft: 9,000,000 - Get real, haters, the subs on this game are only going to go up for a couple more years.

These are crazy numbers, besides I got dibs on 9mill for WoW.  Lets start a bet thread and lock it! 

[andar]

Well, assuming all these games are out by this time next year:

Vanguard: 50,000    It may have a strong showing at first, but I predict a sharp decline in subscribers once people realize that grinding really isn't that much fun.

LoTR:  20,000    Turbine just isn't very good at making games.. Maybe they'll finally close.

Warhammer: 150,000     They might not get many casual players, but there's always die-hards.  I look forward to reuniting with my DAoC comrades, assuming they don't still hate me   

Conan:  80,000      As much as I'd like to see this game succeed, there probably aren't a whole lot of people out there willing to put the needed effort into MMOs that require the player to create the content.

World of Warcraft:     8 million     The fact that my roommate quit playing is a hopeful sign; he is as big a blizzard fanboy as I can imagine there being.  But the evil of TBC is drawing him back in despite all my omens that he'll fail college if he turns back.   

[Falconeer]

These are crazy numbers, besides I got dibs on 9mill for WoW.  Lets start a bet thread and lock it! 

Up for the soon-to-be-locked bet thread, but betting on november 2008. One year from now I bet that Warhammer and Conan will be both still unreleased.

[Cheddar]

Why would anyone bet that WAR has 100K+ players?  Thats like betting on DDO...  idiots.

[stray]

WAR isn't made by Turbine. Idiot :).

I didn't like DAoC either, but they are relatively competent.

[Falconeer]

 I (idiot) bet on Warhammer to score way more than 500k subs.

Enough trashtalk. Let's bet 'n lock!

[stray]

War and Conan have the best chances of getting high subs (mainly because of disgruntled pvp'ers). War even moreso, because of Mythic's reputation (not Warhammer's).

6 months in: WAR = 400k, Conan = 200k

Vanguard: Most ex-EQ players were never "hardcore". They wanted something like WoW. Now they've got it. Vanguard will end up being the most expensive, barely populated, niche mmo ever. It'll be the new Horizons and Auto Assault. On top of that, the high sys reqs will push people away even further.

6 months in: 30k subs

LotR, despite it being from Turbine, will grab a respectable number at first. Then it'll disgust people. Then hold on to a desperate fanbase....Much like SWG.

6 months in: 200k subs

2 years in: 30k subs

God's and Heroes and PotBS will be the new, "moderately successful" titles. They're subscription rates will rise slowly, but eventually, I they'll rise. Much like Eve.

6 months in: 50k subs

2 years in: 250k subs

[geldonyetich]

I'm expecting World of Warcraft to undergo radical subscription reversal any day now, but it seems that my rampant doomcast of the game has thus far been proved incorrect.    I honestly can't see why the game has such a massive subscription retention, as the end game is raiding or PvP, neither of which have ever really been great at getting players' attention before.  I'm currently thinking it's the accessibility and fun on the GUI level, coupled with Blizzard popularity, that has it as popular as it is.

I guess it's because popularity isn't really a great indication about how good a game is anyway.  There's a lot of great games out there that have enough players to be a moderate success, and that's all that matters.  It's when innovative cutting edge awesome games fall by the wayside due to lack of popularity that the cooperate consumption monster wins.

[Margalis]

2008 is too far. Just do end of year 2007. If you think a game won't be release by then just estimate zero or hedge your bets accordingly.

Predicting if a game will come on time or at all is half the puzzle!

[Simond]

I guess it's because popularity isn't really a great indication about how good a game is anyway.

Why isn't popularity a decent indicator for subscription-based games?

[Falconeer]

2008 is too far. Just do end of year 2007. If you think a game won't be release by then just estimate zero or hedge your bets accordingly.

Predicting if a game will come on time or at all is half the puzzle!

Darn. I'll comply then.

- Warhammer: 500k
- Lord of the Rings: 200k
- Conan: 250k
- Vanguard: 400k

...and World of Warcraft still at 5millions (my Doomcast for WoW predicts a huge drop in late 2008.. I am not ready for predictions of late 2007...)

[WindupAtheist]

Falconeer is thisclose to drawing a chart with WoW at -55,000 subscriptions.

[Falconeer]

Falconeer is thisclose to drawing a chart with WoW at -55,000 subscriptions.

You are never happy. :)
I said 5 millions for WoW, not just 5.

[stray]

How the HELL is Vanguard going to get 400k? Nobody wants to play it except an extreme segment of EQ fanboi's -- who are, in turn, part of only a slightly larger group of extreme EQ fanboi's (i.e. people who like to catass and raid). And even then, it'll chase some of these crazy fucks off because they don't have the jobs to afford the hardware to meet the ridiculous system requirements.

If it ever gets 400k, it'll be after 2 years of total subs ever, with the help of Station Pass skewing.

[stray]

Y'know...

Screw this divination crap. I'd like to insure that my predictions become reality.

Somebody give me the bad mojo Brad McQuaid voodoo doll.

[Falconeer]

How the HELL is Vanguard going to get 400k?

'Cause I am one of those who think that people will look for something else massively online to play once they start quitting WoW.
As I said elsewhere, 80% of those 5 millions+ never heard of MMORPGs before WoW. After quitting, they'll discover a whole new frontier and *could* get interested in new (old) things.

[waylander]

War and Conan have the best chances of getting high subs (mainly because of disgruntled pvp'ers). War even moreso, because of Mythic's reputation (not Warhammer's).

6 months in: WAR = 400k, Conan = 200k

Vanguard: Most ex-EQ players were never "hardcore". They wanted something like WoW. Now they've got it. Vanguard will end up being the most expensive, barely populated, niche mmo ever. It'll be the new Horizons and Auto Assault. On top of that, the high sys reqs will push people away even further.

6 months in: 30k subs

LotR, despite it being from Turbine, will grab a respectable number at first. Then it'll disgust people. Then hold on to a desperate fanbase....Much like SWG.

6 months in: 200k subs

2 years in: 30k subs

God's and Heroes and PotBS will be the new, "moderately successful" titles. They're subscription rates will rise slowly, but eventually, I they'll rise. Much like Eve.

6 months in: 50k subs

2 years in: 250k subs

I think you are right on the money with this assessment. I am interested in Warhammer, but not if its just going to promote massive zergs. Conan sounds interesting, and I need to follow up on that one since I haven't checked it out.

Don't forget that within the next two years we have Star Trek Online and Stargate Worlds due out. I think Stargate has a chance to do well as a niche game 50-100k subs, but I think Star Trek is going to be a rehash about what everyone hates about SWG.

Chronicles of Spellborn also looks interesting, and is worth watching.

[SnakeCharmer]

I'm curious about something though...

How many of WoW's subs are first time MMO'ers?  And when these first time MMO'ers try something else that isn't as polished as WoW, that isn't as "fun" as WoW (was to them), are faced with *another* grind in a different game that isn't as well done as the WoW grind, how many of these people are going to go right *back* to WoW?

What I am getting at, is that all the first time MMO'ers are going to view WoW as the "gold standard" because that is what they *know*.  And when faced with other games, that are - lets face it - crap compared to the WoW "done right" game, are they going to turned off by the genre altogether?  They'll give VG a shot, maybe Conan, or Warhammer, and they MIGHT go back to WoW, or they might wait for the next MMO.

The fact is, for the next 3 years, there looks to be less than shiny shit coming out for MMOs.  Who can create something good?  Bioware? Maybe.  SOE? Doubtful. Anything they touch for the next 3-5 years is going to be looked at with suspicion by the playerbase. 

I dunno if the above made any sense.  Working on a grade a hangover.

[SnakeCharmer]

I honestly can't see why the game has such a massive subscription retention

Because there is absolutely NOTHING worth playing out there.  Look at the list:
Phantasy Star? Sure. Sign me up.   
SWG.  Right.  Never giving SOE another DOLLAR of box sale, or sub revenue
RF Online? Newp.
EQ/2? See SOE, hack and slash fantasy
Roma Victor?
Dark and Light?
Matrix?
AO?
UO?
DAOC?
Auto Assault?
COH/V?  I'm actually toying around with that one.  Decent fun, for 30 minutes at at time
EVE?  I want to walk around, not always fly.  I own my business IRL, don't need to run one online.
Lineage/II?
Guild Wars?

There is absolute DOG SHIT for MMO's out there.

[Driakos]

How the HELL is Vanguard going to get 400k?

'Cause I am one of those who think that people will look for something else massively online to play once they start quitting WoW.
As I said elsewhere, 80% of those 5 millions+ never heard of MMORPGs before WoW. After quitting, they'll discover a whole new frontier and *could* get interested in new (old) things.

I think the majority of those MMO newbies, might try other games, but they wont stick to any of them, unless they are as finished/polished as WoW.  I think it is more likely they'll quit MMOs outright, rather than deal with a buggy game.  They've already had their First MMO experience, everything else is going to have a hard time competing with that, and will always be compared to their First.  Consistant look/stylized, low time barrier to fun, and mostly bug free, are going to kick the shit out of clump, every time.  Even if clump has some features unique to it.

Vanguard isn't going to have much polish, just lots of tape and glue.  Maybe some cat people made out of macaroni and construction paper.

[Falconeer]

I think the majority of those MMO newbies, might try other games, but they wont stick to any of them, unless they are as finished/polished as WoW. 

On WoW polish: I know talent is not something that grows on trees, but I think every big software house out there knows that they *HAVE TO* copy from WoW polish. NOT from WoW as a game, but from their level of polish, accessibility and so on.
This DEFINITELY doesn't mean that they will be able to accomplish that. But, for sure, that they will try as hell to copy THAT aspect of the game.
Again, I could be wrong, but I think in the future we will see less "hurried releases" and, as an average, lots more polish in every major MMORPG.

Hence, more polish and accessibility for Conan, Warhammer, Lotro too (although you can't improve that much when you are Turbine...) and even Vanguard.

Vanguard could use a mind interface and it would stay un-accessible anyway, but as for Conan or Warhammer... I think we could be really surprised by the level of "polish" they will be able to achieve.
And please refrain to tell me how unpolished those games are now. I am not interested anymore in betas, just releases.

[Malathor]

On WoW polish: I know talent is not something that grows on trees, but I think every big software house out there knows that they *HAVE TO* copy from WoW polish. NOT from WoW as a game, but from their level of polish, accessibility and so on.
This DEFINITELY doesn't mean that they will be able to accomplish that. But, for sure, that they will try as hell to copy THAT aspect of the game.
Again, I could be wrong, but I think in the future we will see less "hurried releases" and, as an average, lots more polish in every major MMORPG.

Hence, more polish and accessibility for Conan, Warhammer, Lotro too (although you can't improve that much when you are Turbine...) and even Vanguard.

Right. Since WoW released we've seen Auto Assault, DDO, Dark and Light and SWG's NGE. Seems to me that nobody's learned a damned thing.

[Endie]

On the basis of rising tides and floating boats:

- Warhammer: 180k
- Lord of the Rings: 300k  <--- This is where I am really going to look stupid unless Turbine have learned from DDO
- Conan: 120k
- Vanguard: 90k

World of Warcraft at 4.1 million.  I was going to go much lower, but I suspect that they'll be launching another expansion abouit then, and this one might be less pointless than the current one, which is just a few new zones, two new races that are really not that different from cross-factional equivalents, and a game of swappsies with existing classes.

[Falconeer]

Right. Since WoW released we've seen Auto Assault, DDO, Dark and Light and SWG's NGE. Seems to me that nobody's learned a damned thing.

Too easy shot, buddy. You know as good as me that those games were filled with the pre-WoW arrogance that you could sell shit as long as its smell was online.
Now it's a totally different things and investors, I guess, are a little more cautious. And demanding.
Not to say designers or project leaders.

Am I wrong or among those 4 big games, 2 already got major delays and revamps, and the other twos don't dare a launch date yet.
Would something like this have happened at all a couple of years ago, in the era of the pay-to-beta MMOGs?

Again, I am not saying this will be enough to achieve HALF the polish (and fun) of WoW. I am saying that someone *probably* learned some lessons in the last WoW years (I think we could start scrapping the christian calendar and substitute it with a Wow Calendar - Today is aactually November, 4th, year 2 A.W.).

[Margalis]

MMORPGs take a long time to make, games that came out in the last year were started well before WOW launched.

I'm not making my predictions until we get a sticky thread or something, too hard to follow in this thread.

I see a lot of PSU players that have come from WOW, as well as some from FFXI. I haven't heard of any from EQ or other games yet. I've seen a few "I dropped WOW for this game."

I think with the lack of content these people will burn out quite fast, but a lot of them seem to have the same motivation - WOW was "ruined" by the level 60+ game where you have to have the right equipment, form up the right groups with the right classes, play your roles "correctly", etc etc. In PSU you can just form up any old group and have a good time.

[Arthur_Parker]

Worldwide

- Warhammer: over 1 million
- Conan: 90k
- Vanguard: 60k

[Falconeer]

Worldwide

- Warhammer: over 1 million

I am one of the few to think Warhammer will break the 1 million barrier, but in a year from now Arthur? Do you think it will be released soon enough to score 1 million in november 2007?

My prediction for Warhammer is 500k close to launch (November 2007), 1 million+ one year after that (November 2008).

[Cheddar]

Worldwide

- Warhammer: over 1 million

I am one of the few to think Warhammer will break the 1 million barrier, but in a year from now Arthur? Do you think it will be released soon enough to score 1 million in november 2007?

My prediction for Warhammer is 500k close to launch (November 2007), 1 million+ one year after that (November 2008).

Crack smokers.  They will launch with about 150k, and it will fluctuate from there.

[Signe]

Worldwide

- Warhammer: over 1 million
- Conan: 90k
- Vanguard: 60k

I keep reading game people who say Vanguard will steal the show in 2007, but I also don't see it happening.  Too much has leaked out about corpse runs, death penalties, forced grouping situations, camping.  Only die hard EQ fans, who have mostly ignored WoW, EQ2 and other MMOs, will want to go back to that nonsense.  Even if it's not true or they fix it, there have been so many alledged  breakers claiming it's true.  Anyway, McQuaids views on MMOs in posts and interviews have put me right off the game.  I'm kind of sort of almost looking forward to Warhammer, though.  Somewhat mostly.

[Arthur_Parker]

I am one of the few to think Warhammer will break the 1 million barrier, but in a year from now Arthur? Do you think it will be released soon enough to score 1 million in november 2007?

My prediction for Warhammer is 500k close to launch (November 2007), 1 million+ one year after that (November 2008).

I thought we were talking november 2008, I doubt Warhammer will be out until spring 2008, I can't see them meeting a 2007 target.

[Comstar]

Vanguard: 50K. I have no interest in replaying all the bad memories I have of EQ. That's all I hear about Vanguard.

Lord of the Rings: 50K. D&D didn't work, and it had a better chance than LOTR now that the movies are over.

PoTBS: 20K but rising. Much like EvE did, start small but keep climbing. They need to be able to surive on a low base to keep climbing though.

Warhammer: 120K. DAoC experiences, and a better PvP than WoW. Will keep going up though (much like WoW has).

Conan: 70K. I'd *LIKE* to see this go higher, but I fear 90% of players won't finish the single player part first.

Warcraft: 9million. Will be replaced by World of Starcraft when it starts losing it's numbers.

[WindupAtheist]

Betcha the "must fuck around in single-player for a while" requirement vanishes within the first six months.

[Zane0]

My theory: no one really knows what the market is capable of.  Most people predicted WoW would draw 200-500k- including Blizzard!

In regards to Vanguard, I've only seen a couple videos, and I'll sorta agree that it doesn't seem very interesting.  But, who knows.  It'll be very interesting to see how well a straight 'diku' performs in the post-WoW market.

[stray]

Betcha the "must fuck around in single-player for a while" requirement vanishes within the first six months.

It's not "for a while". It's 20 levels (out of 80, I think). The beginning part of Conan is basically a short RPG. Not an MMO tutorial. Besides that, I think the entire class choosing process is built around it. If that's the case, it'd be hard to rework.

Secondly, who would want to choose an online, foozle oriented experience over a character oriented, story based one?

Thirdly, it's a smart way for Funcom to get people attached to their characters, and lure them to the rest of the game. Why would they want to sacrifice that?

[caladein]

Betcha the "must fuck around in single-player for a while" requirement vanishes within the first six months.

It's not "for a while". It's 20 levels (out of 80, I think). The beginning part of Conan is basically a short RPG. Not an MMO tutorial. Besides that, I think the entire class choosing process is built around it. If that's the case, it'd be hard to rework.

Secondly, who would want to choose an online, foozle oriented experience over a character oriented, story based one?

Thirdly, it's a smart way for Funcom to get people attached to their characters, and lure them to the rest of the game. Why would they want to sacrifice that?

Also, you don't need to do the offline part with any character after your first.