Song of Ice and Fire Book Thread (SPOILERS)

[eldaec]

Personally I hope Tyrion is a Lannister. Having him and Jon both be hidden Dragons seems a bit rubbish. That said, I suspect you can learn a lot from the scenes where TV dialog matches the book word for word, and the Tyrion/Tywin scene early in season 3 took a lot of unnecessary detail about Tyrion's parentage and Casterly Rock.

Also the Valonqar doesn't necessarily have to be Cersei's little brother. There are any number of other younger brothers available.

[Merusk]

Don't forget Cersi was born first.  She's the eldest of all the children.  Given how he's turned from Cersi and how she's pretty much irredeemable, it's most likely going to be Jamie who kills her.

[Threash]

Don't forget Cersi was born first.  She's the eldest of all the children.  Given how he's turned from Cersi and how she's pretty much irredeemable, it's most likely going to be Jamie who kills her.

If i had to guess after she kills Tomnen when she realizes she's lost him to Margaery.

[eldaec]

One question I honestly don't have a clue about but suspect is pretty central to everything, and would be surprised if there aren't clues I've missed:

What does Varys want?

[Arthur_Parker]

I haven't really looked into it but from what I recall Varys seems to act in the best interests of the common people, so I'd say he wants a just king.  He liked Ned but thought he was beyond saving.  He was playing a long game at supporting Viserys & Daenerys but had the backup of fake Aegon, those plots were years in the making.  

If true, the story about the guy in the box seems to indicate he's involved in the magic war which seems to be "really evil", trapped box guy, versus "not that evil all the time", but maybe the Old Gods make up a third side in that war.

Personally I hope Tyrion is a Lannister. Having him and Jon both be hidden Dragons seems a bit rubbish. That said, I suspect you can learn a lot from the scenes where TV dialog matches the book word for word, and the Tyrion/Tywin scene early in season 3 took a lot of unnecessary detail about Tyrion's parentage and Casterly Rock.

Also the Valonqar doesn't necessarily have to be Cersei's little brother. There are any number of other younger brothers available.

I can't decide if I want the Twins to be Targaryen or Tyrion.  Hair coloring and geographic location to the Dragons make Tyrion seem logical to me at the minute.  Downside is it makes Tywin's cruelty towards him more justified and I don't like that.  I do like that Tywin apparently ordered the deaths of Rhaenys and Aegon and Tyrion would be their uncle.

The couple of sample chapters released for the next book are worth a read, Theon Greyjoy & Arianne Martell.

I'm looking forward to the next book as one way or another we'll leave the wall behind and hopefully learn a lot more about the white walkers through Jon's viewpoint as I think he's going to somehow represent the Ice in the title of the series.

[Arthur_Parker]

Patchface is a character I'd like to see more of.

"Fool’s blood. King’s blood, blood on the maiden’s thigh, but chains for the guests and chains for the bridegroom, aye, aye, aye".

Obvious reference to the Red Wedding.

"Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish. Up here the young fish teach the old fish".

Patchface says the above, similar quote from Varys below.

"The storms come and go, the waves crash overhead, the big fish eat the little fish, and I keep on paddling".

[Threash]

I haven't really looked into it but from what I recall Varys seems to act in the best interests of the common people, so I'd say he wants a just king.  He liked Ned but thought he was beyond saving.  He was playing a long game at supporting Viserys & Daenerys but had the backup of fake Aegon, those plots were years in the making.  

He killed Kevan for the simple reason that he was doing too good a job holding the realm together.  I'd say the only ones he's been reliably working for are the Targaryens.

[eldaec]

But if pro-targ, he can't be anti magic.

Dany was warned about the perfumed seneschal.

And if he is not pro-targ, why send Tyrion to her?

[Phred]

I haven't really looked into it but from what I recall Varys seems to act in the best interests of the common people, so I'd say he wants a just king.  He liked Ned but thought he was beyond saving.  He was playing a long game at supporting Viserys & Daenerys but had the backup of fake Aegon, those plots were years in the making.  

He killed Kevan for the simple reason that he was doing too good a job holding the realm together.  I'd say the only ones he's been reliably working for are the Targaryens.

Are you saying Varys killed Kevan cause other then by inaction that's not how I remember it, and Tryion seems to think he did it.

[eldaec]

Varys killed Kevan by shooting him with a crossbow then having his little birds stab him with knives.

Are you thinking of Tywin?

[Phred]

Varys killed Kevan by shooting him with a crossbow then having his little birds stab him knives.

Are you thinking of Tywin?

Oops shit :)

[Arthur_Parker]

But if pro-targ, he can't be anti magic.

Dany was warned about the perfumed seneschal.

And if he is not pro-targ, why send Tyrion to her?

I'm not sure what people mean when they talk about an anti-magic side.

Blood/Fire Magic (Dragons, warm resurrection, Shadows, future visions)
Cold Magic (White Walkers, cold resurrection)
Water Magic (Greyscale, Drowned men, future visions)

Old Gods (Trees, future visions, wargs?)

Just a quick stab at the above.  Fire and ice opposites, water in the middle, blood freezes and burns.

Ser Barristan once told me the rot in King Aerys's reign began with Varys. The eunuch should never have been pardoned."

[eldaec]

Varys explicitly claims to Tyrion that his driving force is hatred of all magic users, Marwyn states that the Citadel 'killed the dragons' and works to keep magic out of the world. The various magic forces may or may not be aligned to each other, but at the very least they all seem to benefit from the rising tide. The types of magic don't seem exclusive as there seem to be various users of multiple strands.

Varys being behind Aerys' descent to madness (or Robert's campaign to kill Rhaegar) wouldn't really come as a shock, but again makes you realise his interaction with "Aegon" and Dany isn't necessarily supportive.

The only satisfying solution I can see is that:
Possibly aligned to the Citadel, he wants control of Westeros from behind the throne, because his faction is considers itself the only one smart enough to not screw everything up.
He overthrew Aerys because Aerys sought magic.
Sidelined or killed Aerys' children having realised this would only happen over and over.
Found he could not control Robert or the state while power was based on the balance of the houses rather than a dominant king.
"Aegon" is the solution he sees to ending the war of the roses and installing someone acceptable and pliable but whose claim won't be challenged.

But there are problems with this, he allowed Dany to have the Dragon eggs after all.

[Arthur_Parker]

Marwyn states that the Citadel 'killed the dragons' and works to keep magic out of the world. The various magic forces may or may not be aligned to each other, but at the very least they all seem to benefit from the rising tide. The types of magic don't seem exclusive as there seem to be various users of multiple strands.

Interesting, Patchface could be referring to obsidian candles, one of which it was reported that Marwyn managed to light.

Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.

One green and three black candles were brought to the Citadel from Valyria a thousand years before the Doom of Valyria.

Quaithe

"The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.

I had forgotten the "perfumed seneschal" quote, Sun's son would seem to be the son of House Martell, Quentyn, mummer's dragon, fake Aegon, others seem obvious too.

[Arthur_Parker]

Patchface

I had a brief look at various explanations for what Patchface is saying, if somebody else mentioned this I didn't see it, but could "under the sea" translate to something like "in Valyrian Freehold"?  

Possibly both present tense, as in potentially useful information, and past tense as you need that to solve the key.

Under the sea, the birds have scales for feathers. I know. I know…
In Valyrian Freehold there are Dragons.

It is always summer under the sea. The merwives wear nennymoans in their hair and weave gowns of silver seaweed. I know. I know…
It's always summer in Valyrian Freehold.  The ladies wear flowers in their hair and weave gowns of silver

Under the sea it snows up, and the rain is dry as bone. I know. I know…
The Fourteen Flames is an immense chain of volcanoes extending across the neck of the Valyrian peninsula.  In Valyrian Freehold Snow is Ash, rain is lava.

The shadows come to dance my lord, dance my lord, dance my lord. The shadows come to stay my lord, stay my lord, stay my lord...
No key, but Daenerys recalls hearing that the first dragons had come from the east, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai and the islands of the Jade Sea.  The Dance of the Dragons was a civil war during Targaryen rule, most of the Targaryen dragons were killed in the war.  Dragons have returned.

Under the sea, you fall up. I know. I know…
In Valyrian Freehold, you can fly.  (Not sure about this one at all).

Here we eat fish, under the sea, the fish eat us. I know. I know…
Here we eat fish, in Valyrian Freehold, the fish eat us (The Doom fragmented the land surrounding Valyria itself into numerous smaller islands, creating the Smoking Sea between them)

Under the sea no one wears hats. I know. I know…
If the key is referring to Valyrian and the surrounding area that is now the smoking sea, hats won't do you much good underwater  (Not sure about this one at all either).

Under the sea, smoke rises in bubbles, and flames burn green and blue and black. “I know, I know, oh, oh, oh.
In Valyrian Freehold, volcanoes, bubbles, as mentioned earlier the magic candles came from Valyria.

“Under the sea the crows are white as snow.”
Very difficult.  Crows could be men, like the men at the wall, simple crows, ravens, snow might be ash, white could be white walkers, dead men, white ravens even

[eldaec]

regarding the volcanos, they may be a clue to mirri maz dur's prophecy about drogo returning when mountains blow (ash) in the wind, the whole up is down, east is west, etc seems to be an important theme of everyone's prophecies, and I don't know what that really refers to.

"Dany must go to Asshai" seems far too prosaic. It implies GRRM is very proud of some kind of mass reversal he has planned.

[Chimpy]

I honestly don't think he has thought out much beyond where his next cheeseburger is coming from at this point.

[Phred]

I honestly don't think he has thought out much beyond where his next cheeseburger is coming from at this point.

The guy could have a lifetime supply of cheeseburgers catered to him at this point. He's fucking rich. Most authors usually have a plan for the beginning and the end of a story in their heads before writing. The middle supposedly takes care of itself.

[Threash]

He has in fact shared the plan of where the story will go with the TV guys, at least a basic summary of how each character ends up.

[Ingmar]

That's a change from the last thing I heard him say, which was that he left instructions for his notes to all be burned if he died without finishing it. 

[Arthur_Parker]

I honestly don't think he has thought out much beyond where his next cheeseburger is coming from at this point.

I dunno I think he's very careful with the Prophecies.

From Storm of Swords, Jaime's dream, while using a bearskin for a pillow on weirwood stump, the dream predicts Brienne facing the Bear in the pit. 

But it's also showing Casterly Rock, home of the Lannisters.

“Your place.” The voice echoed; it was a hundred voices, a thousand, the voices of all the Lannisters since Lann the Clever, who’d lived at the dawn of days. But most of all it was his father’s voice, and beside Lord Tywin stood his sister, pale and beautiful, a torch burning in her hand. Joffrey was there as well, the son they’d made together, and behind them a dozen more dark shapes with golden hair.

There's no Tyrion there, the one Lannister Jaime would certainly list before Joffrey, but Jaime can also see the shapes of the others and still doesn't mention Tyrion, the one shape that would be easier to identify than a face in the dark.

Full section, lengthy so spoilered

[Arthur_Parker]

Any thoughts on Lemore?

A lot of people seem convinced she is Ashara Dayne, there are just not a lot of missing females in the books, the men are more likely to leave home.

I can see the appeal as you can trace a lot of the plot back to the Tourney at Harrenhal and more specifically the Knight of the Laughing Tree.  She could give a view point on that, plus Ned's visit to her after the deaths of Arthur Dayne & Lyanna Stark (Lyanna does seem a fairly good fit for the mystery of the Knight of the Laughing Tree).

I've also never been happy that the secret of Jon's birth was going to be solved by Howland Reed, it's been way too obvious for too long now.  When/If Howland appears in the books people will be skipping pages ahead to see if he says anything about the Tower of Joy.  There are so many more plot lines Ashara could tie together, she might possibly have even been a wet-nurse to Prince Aegon (if real) due to her role as lady-in-waiting to his mother.

People don't seem put off that much by the fact Tyrion didn't mention her eyes being purple.

Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara’s smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara’s daughter

That doesn't bother me as much, Tyrion seems to have darker hair in the TV series, even though could have dyed it any colour.  I can imagine that physical characteristic clues George put in the books being a lot more obvious in a TV series and he's since adjusted his writing.

What does bother me is she seems too old.  If he'd lived Ned would be 37 at the same time as Tyrion describes Lemore as "being over forty years old", I think it's stretching things to have her ~5 years older.

[Threash]

Yeah, the purple eyes is kind of a deal breaker in my opinion.  That would've been mentioned, or a way to change the color of your eyes would have been casually dropped at some point in the previous books.

[eldaec]

I think you're reading too much into Jamie's dream. Tyrion is certainly a Lannister just as Jon is certainly a Stark.


Lemore/Ashara feels like fandom taking 2 unsolved mysteries and sticking them together without evidence.

[Arthur_Parker]

The ground work is in place if George wants to make the Twins or Tyrion Targaryen, I only noticed the slight oddity of Jamie's dream at the time I posted it.

I agree on Lemore, but that's just what people do (though Jon Connington did dance with Ashara Dayne at Harrenhal).  As for Tyrion, maybe George won't go there now so many people have guessed, maybe it was never intended.  I don't buy that Tyrion must be Tywin's son as they are so alike, Jaime has always been very easy to manipulate and Cersei is pretty dim.  Tyrion has been desperate for Tywin's approval all his life, you even see that in the last book, he doesn't have a clue what to do now that Tywin is dead.

[Threash]

I think you're reading too much into Jamie's dream. Tyrion is certainly a Lannister just as Jon is certainly a Stark.

At this point if Jon turns out to be a Stark that would be a massive retcon.  Hell, that was the one question Martin posed the TV guys before he let them do the show.

[Teleku]

I think you're reading too much into Jamie's dream. Tyrion is certainly a Lannister just as Jon is certainly a Stark.

At this point if Jon turns out to be a Stark that would be a massive retcon.  Hell, that was the one question Martin posed the TV guys before he let them do the show.

How so?  I thought it was pretty much the accepted theory by everybody that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark.

[Threash]

I think you're reading too much into Jamie's dream. Tyrion is certainly a Lannister just as Jon is certainly a Stark.

At this point if Jon turns out to be a Stark that would be a massive retcon.  Hell, that was the one question Martin posed the TV guys before he let them do the show.

How so?  I thought it was pretty much the accepted theory by everybody that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark.

That's would make him a Targaryen bastard (a "Sands" i guess since the tower of joy was in Dorne), or a Targaryen if Lyanna and Rhaegar married at some point or if he got legitimized.  Not a Stark.

[Merusk]

The "not a Stark" thing posed to the TV writers referred to Jon's lack of nobility and ability to inherit Winterfell, I thought.  Martin being concerned the writers would do the usual TV-writer thing and try to inject tension with some sort of hope Jon has about being able to one day, yadda, yadda, yadda.

[Threash]

No he specifically asked them "who is Jon Snow's mother" on their very first meeting.

[Arthur_Parker]

Producers David Benioff, Dan Weiss & George R.R. Martin Talk GAME OF THRONES Season 3 and 4, Martin’s Cameo, the End of the Series, and More

GEORGE R.R. MARTIN: I did ask them a few pointed question to determine whether they had actually read the books, and they gave me the right answers.  So, we shook hands and they took the ball and ran with it.  The next thing I knew, we were in business with HBO.

David and Dan, what was the specific question that George asked you?

DAN WEISS:  He asked us, “Who is Jon Snow’s mother?”  We had discussed it before, and we gave a shocking answer.  At that point, George didn’t actually say whether or not we were right or wrong, but his smile was his tell.  We knew we had passed the Wonka test, at that point.

Found the above if it helps.

Eldaec might just mean by nature Jon is a Stark as Ned was his father figure, in addition to presumably being his uncle.  I'm confused as to if people here don't think his mother is Lyanna, which does seem obvious so not exactly a "shocking answer".

Edit to add, pretty sure Ned said Jon shares his blood, which would indicate Ned, his older brother or Lyanna.

[Ingmar]

It would be a pretty shocking answer if they still thought Ned was the father. 

[Arthur_Parker]

The four great bastards.

1. Daemon Blackfyre was a bastard son Aegon IV.
One of his sons was Aegon Blackfyre, who possibly had female descendants leading to the Blackfyre whore and the current live (fake) Aegon (Targaryen), so he'd really be Aegon (Blackfyre).

Threash's mention of the story of the Black Dragon to rusted Red Dragon inn sign fits with this so well.

2. Aegor Rivers, aka Bittersteel, was a bastard son Aegon IV.
On his deathbed, Bittersteel commanded the men of the Golden Company to boil the flesh from his skull, dip it in gold and carry it before them when they cross the sea to retake Westeros. His successors had followed his example.

3. Brynden Rivers, aka Bloodraven, was a bastard son Aegon IV, he was a Targaryen loyalist during the Blackfyre Rebellion.  He's the Three-eyed crow teaching Bran to be a greenseer.

It is also theorized that Bloodraven was actually present at Whitewalls, using his famous sorcery to disguise himself as a knight named Maynard Plumm. This is supported by Ser Maynard's knowledge of Dunk, as well as the fact that Dunk noticed that Plumm's features began to look less authentic the longer he looked. This kind of magic is also used in A Dance with Dragons, when Melisandre makes Mance Rayder appear to other men as Rattleshirt.

So with three of the four bastards still in play (Bittersteel just being a skull carried by the Gold Company), I think the fourth is likely to make an appearance.

4. Shiera Seastar

Shiera was renowned as a famous beauty and seductress, with long Targaryen silver-gold hair, and a heart-shaped face. Although she had two mismatched eyes, (one blue, the other green), it was said that the "defect" only enhanced her beauty.
She was a great reader, even at an early age, spoke many languages, and maintained a large and arcane library. She also was reputed to share her mother's skill in the dark arts

Her father sired her upon the ninth and last of his mistresses, Lady Serenei of Lys, the last daughter of an ancient but impoverished line of Valyrian nobility. Shiera's mother was disliked by Aegon's courtiers and considered cold and haughty; it was rumored that she was much older than the king, practicing dark arts to retain her youth and beauty. Serenei was considered by many the most lovely of Aegon's mistresses. She died in childbed, bringing forth Shiera, her name meaning "Star of the Sea."
Shiera never married, but took many lovers, and numerous duels were fought for her favor. Her half-brother Bloodraven was her most ardent suitor, and repeatedly proposed marriage to her. Although she refused to marry him, she did share her bed with him. Her other half-brother Bittersteel was said to have also desired her, which only served to increase the hatred between Bloodraven and Bittersteel.
Her relationship with Bloodraven was widely known, and there were rumors that she bathed in the blood of maidens to retain her beauty. She was known to possess a famous necklace, alternating sapphires and emeralds to compliment her unusual eyes.

You can make a case for Shiera having the most concentrated Valyian noble blood of all characters, aging slower and having the Dark arts, which Bloodraven used to disguise his appearance as Ser Maynard (one theory which I think is true, quotes below from The Mystery Knight)

Dunk whirled. Through the rain, all he could make out was a hooded shape and a single pale white eye. It was only when the man came forward that the shadowed face beneath the cowl took on the familiar features of Ser Maynard Plumm, the pale eye no more than the moonstone brooch that pinned his cloak at the shoulder.
...
Aegon the Unworthy had bedded half the maidens in the realm and fathered bastards on the lot of them, supposedly. Worse, the old king had legitimized them all upon his deathbed; the baseborn ones born of tavern wenches, whores, and shepherd girls, and the Great Bastards whose mothers had been highborn. "We'd all be bastard sons of old King Aegon if half these tales were true."

"And who's to say we're not?" Ser Maynard quipped.

So if she's already in the books as a character I think the two strongest contenders are :-

Lemore or Quaithe

Lemore becuase Shiera was described as a seductress who spoke many languages, and maintained a large and arcane library.

Or my slightly preferred possibility of Quaithe because she's been one of the few to give Daenerys good advice, uses magic heavily, "mask made of starlight, and the stars whisper in a woman's voice".  It would also align Shiera with Daenerys, Bloodraven with Jon Snow.

[eldaec]

To elaborate.

If Lyanna is his mother, he's a Stark regardless of what else he might be - as evidenced by the 400 pound wolf that follows him around. He might also be a Targaryen.

Assuming he is both, and if legitimized, he is the currently Aerys's heir, and I think he'd outrank Sansa for winter fell on account of his penis. Though not sure.

[Threash]

Robb also legitimized him as a Stark before getting ganked.