NFL 2011

[shiznitz]

That Saints had been stoppable. This isn't the Super Bowl Saints that just rolled the fuck over people. The odds are NOT on the 4th and inches play, they are on punting and the defense. Failing the 4th and inches means you definitely lose. Punting means you might lose if a bunch of different things happen, all or none of which may happen.

It was a bonehead play call.

The play was a bad one, but I don't think going for it was. 

[Slayerik]

If your team can't get you inches when it counts, you don't deserve to win. It's that simple. I'll never hate on a 4th and inches "GO FOR IT" call. You punt there and you are sending a clear message...my offense is shit. Bad coaching is taking a time out before-hand. You should have a goto play or two for the occasion.

[Paelos]

If your team can't get you inches when it counts, you don't deserve to win. It's that simple. I'll never hate on a 4th and inches "GO FOR IT" call. You punt there and you are sending a clear message...my offense is shit. Bad coaching is taking a time out before-hand. You should have a goto play or two for the occasion.

That's dumb. In college, yeah. In the NFL, there's no such thing as an easy 4th down and inches play. It could be that your team is playing lights out defense and you'd rather suffocate the other team. It could be that you trust your guys to get the stop. Would the Jets or Baltimore not punt in that situation?

[ghost]

It was a risky call and they paid the penalty for it.  I don't see the big deal.  There's no guarantee that punting would have worked either.  The biggest issue here is the lame ass way that the NFL deals with OT.  I like the college way much better.  Sudden death is just idiocy.

[Paelos]

What's idoicy is that the NFL knows it's stupid, has changed the playoff OT to reflect that, but still refuses to make those rules apply to the regular season.

[Ingmar]

The actual math:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/falcons-4th-down-in-ot.html

TLDR: Going for it was the right call.

[naum]

Is Tebow a legitimate (triple) option?

Tebow appears to be precisely what Schmidt envisioned in 1971.  He is a big, tough runner who does not turn the ball over, can use the option's leverage to exploit overly aggressive pass-rushing defenses, and can withstand the physical pounding that accompanies the life of any person brave enough to regularly run the ball in the NFL.

These facts have caught many, such as Slate’s Brown, off guard.

“While many wondered whether Tebow might be the guy to bring the spread option to the NFL,” Brown wrote, “few thought it would be because his team was terrible, his coaches were too scared to let him pass, and the organization didn’t believe in him enough to care whether he got beat up doing it.”

Actually, if you think about it a little, these are the only conditions under which any organization in any sport would grudgingly grant a chance to succeed to an unconventional approach like Tebow’s approach.  Innovation--including Yeoman's veer option, Royal's and Bellard's wishbone option, and Walsh's West Coast Offense--only gets a chance when everything else fails and an organization has absolutely nothing to lose by saying, "What the heck, go ahead and give your crazy idea a try."

If Bill Walsh were still alive, he undoubtedly would agree with the QuantCoach, as Walsh himself turned to the wishbone triple option on one dire occasion.

On October 5, 1987, in a game that until now there was little reason to recall, San Francisco met New York in the first Monday Night Football Game to feature expendable “replacement players” who were substituting for striking NFL players.

Though the NFL regulars were on strike, there was no certainty that one of the NFL’s biggest stars, Giants’ linebacker Lawrence Taylor, would honor the strike.  Walsh knew that it was hard enough to block Taylor with bona fide NFL blockers, and he had to have known that it would be impossible to block Taylor with replacement blockers.

According to Walsh’s own memoir, San Francisco prepared fully for the replacement games and “had a contingency for every logical scenario.”  Thus, it is reasonable to speculate that Walsh calculated that if Taylor crossed the picket line and played in the game, then the only player on the field who would have been capable of blocking Lawrence Taylor would have been … Lawrence Taylor.

Because Walsh would have had no reasonable hope of blocking Taylor with a physical blocker, his only chance to block Taylor would have been with an abstract idea.  The wishbone triple option would have been the perfect resource for meeting Walsh’s needs.
 
Though ultimately Taylor did not play against the 49ers, in the second half, Walsh put San Francisco in the wishbone and unleashed Mark Stevens, an obscure quarterback from the University of Utah.  Stevens operated the triple option deftly and ran for a touchdown and passed for another as San Francisco clobbered the Giants, 41-21.

Two weeks after the 49ers’ victory, Mark Stevens’ NFL career came to an end when NFL regulars returned to action.

Tebow’s productive career might not last much longer than Mark Stevens’ career.

But the QuantCoach has seen enough in the last two weeks to predict that, using the leverage derived from his unconventional option, Tebow will deliver the 2011 AFC West title to Denver.

[Paelos]

The actual math:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/falcons-4th-down-in-ot.html

TLDR: Going for it was the right call.

By 5%. So out of 20 scenarios, you'll win 11 and lose in 9. Given the rarity of NFL overtime, I'd rather put the ball in the Saint's hands when the defense had already held them scoreless since about 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, AND already gotten a stop in overtime. Also, at the time Kasay was 4/7 from 40+ yards and he had already been forced to kick two from that distance in the game. He's perfect inside 40 all season long. So, if you turned it over, you know you lost.

[Ingmar]

8% more likely to win, and that's based on 4th and 1, not 4th and inches. The actual number would be a good bit higher than that.

[Paelos]

8% more likely to win, and that's based on 4th and 1, not 4th and inches. The actual number would be a good bit higher than that.

It's also based on historical stats, not on the fact that the kicker in question is 25th in the league from 40+, and that your D hadn't allowed a NO drive into the red zone since 5m left in the 3rd quarter.

[caladein]

That cuts both ways.  The Saints have a pretty shoddy run defense by both traditional (27th in yardage, last in yards/attempt) and advanced (19th in DVOA) metrics.

Mitigating that are that the Saints are almost certainly more aggressive in getting into chip shot range than the average team in that situation, reducing the failed conversion's chance of still winning.  On the offensive side, most of the commentary has been around preferring the QB Sneak play and I think the specifics we know about Micheal Turner on top of that play's generally higher success rate back that up.

Still, the specifics about this particular match-up don't go convincingly in one direction enough to change the interpretation of the underlying data.  More importantly, focusing on small-sample size specifics like one particular drive (they stopped them the first time!) is just being silly when everyone in football acknowledges just how important simply being on offense in OT is.

[Paelos]

To take it a different direction, Mark Sanchez is fucking awful.

[Malakili]

How 'bout them Tebows!

[Cyrrex]

The dude is 4 and 1.  I don't really like or dislike the guy, but it sure is an interesting story.  It'll be hilarious if they make the playoffs...and as ridiculous as that sounds, so does Tebow going 4 and 1 in his first 5 starts.  Amazing.

[Fordel]

I want him to win every game this season, just for the hilarious aftermath every game.

[ghost]

Even though he's a jesus weirdo I hope he succeeds for a couple of reasons:  1.  He's completely unconventional for the NFL and 2.  Everyone said he couldn't do it.

[Threash]

I hate the guy for doing a superbowl ad campaign for a hate group but watching an utterly incompetent QB lead a really bad team into a 4-1 record is massively entertaining, as is hearing the "experts" talking about it.

[Nebu]

To be fair, only two of their 4 wins were against teams with power rankings in the top 20 in the league (Oakland at 19th and climbing and Jets at 14th and falling).  KC and Miami hardly count as wins unless you're a Division 3 college team. 

I put Tebow in the Vick category.  As soon as teams get enough film on him, he's done.  The guys needs the offseason to work on his mechanics.  Sadly, even with perfect mechanics I don't think he has the football intellect to be successful at this level. 

[01101010]

To be fair, only two of their 4 wins were against teams with power rankings in the top 20 in the league (Oakland at 19th and climbing and Jets at 14th and falling).  KC and Miami hardly count as wins unless you're a Division 3 college team. 

I put Tebow in the Vick category.  As soon as teams get enough film on him, he's done.  The guys needs the offseason to work on his mechanics.  Sadly, even with perfect mechanics I don't think he has the football intellect to be successful at this level. 

Yeah, but both Oakland and KC were division games... and that division is the AFC's version of the NFC West sans 49ers... wait, West? 

[HaemishM]

I managed to catch the last drive of the game last night. GOD... FUCKING... DAMNIT... will no one rid me of this annoying Tebone? I've not really seen how bad of a passer he really is. He LOOKS like a college quarterback. His throws were uniformly TERRIBLE. Watching him take 3 steps and run for his fucking life is infuriating. If I wanted to watch the fucking NCAA, I'd WATCH THE NCAA. And you know what? Fuck you Rex Ryan and the New York Jets. FUCK YOU IN YOUR EARHOLES. You want to strut around and talk all big and bad about how your team should be in the Super Bowl and will be? Fuck you, prove it. You lost to a goddamn Florida Gators team. You couldn't even stop the run when you knew exactly what was coming at you. You couldn't cover a bunch of fucking second string wideouts taking short arm passes from an amateur QB. It's like watching the fucking 1987 strike scrub replacement games.

Not only are the Jets now 5-5, the same record as this bunch of fucking amateurs, you are BEHIND them in the playoffs standings because you couldn't score 18 points. Sanchez did what Sanchez does when faced with having to win the game for them - he lost it. His passes were overthrown and he couldn't manage the clock. If you fuckheads manage to bumble your way into the playoffs, I hope you lose to the goddamn Bengals. Or better yet, lose to this team, since the entire league seems willing to hand them a playoff berth on a road paved with stunning ineptitude.

[Paelos]

I hate Tebow as a Gator. I like how the rest of the league is finally understanding how pissed off UGA fans were after all our years hearing about this dipshit. The year we crushed him and stomped on the end zone is a highlight game of my college watching career.

[Ingmar]

A little part of me wants the magic to last all the way to the Super Bowl for both the Broncos and 49ers. Stomping Tebow would be almost (ALMOST) as satisfying as stomping Elway was.

[Paelos]

SF is an odd duck. They play so few real games I can't get a read on them yet for postseason success. I know they lost to the Cowboys, but they also beat the Giants. The rest of their games have been against teams I don't consider to be playoff bound with the exception of perhaps Cincy.

They have games against Baltimore and Pitt. I will watch those closely.

[01101010]

You couldn't even stop the run when you knew exactly what was coming at you.

This is the only part that I can not seem to get my head around. You are playing the Denveer Broncos, guess what they will be doing? Running the ball. I dunno, when you find yourself against a weak passing QB and a strong running game, you'd think a coach would just stack the box and make the QB beat you with his arm. The kicker is, you also have arguably the best cover CB in the game and a decent one on the other side, so wtf?

[sickrubik]

A couple things about the Broncos, from a fan.

I dislike Tebow greatly as a person.

I've had to put up with a lot of crazies spewing conspiracy theories about why Tebow wasn't starting. But now he's starting, and the team is 4-1 under his arm and the gameplan designed exactly around him. He has a mediocre receivers corps, a decent OL, a good RB and what has become a really good defense.

So, while a good chunk of the team is mediocre or, as some say terrible, there are some great parts of this team that make me hopeful that if Tebow can adjust his throwing motion/release to a consistent method, this team has the building blocks for a much stronger team. That or we draft/trade for another WB who.. you know, PLAYS QB.

For whatever reason.... it's working. For now. But it's causing me to have mild heart attacks each game.

(also, screw you ing. I'LL SEE YOU IN HELL. HORSE FACED HELL.)

(also, the Bengals are a decent team.)

[HaemishM]

Yeah, there is NO EXCUSE for the Jets to let this fucker score 17 points, ESPECIALLY on that last drive. Play man-to-man with your "best cover corner in football" on their best receiver, zone coverage for the rest, have 2 spy linebackers for the backfield. I don't understand how they can just NOT stop the run or those shit passes he was throwing. Maybe it was that the passes were so bad and inaccurate that the corners couldn't grasp it, like 64th century robots fighting cavemen with clubs or some shit.

[Trippy]

Tebow really only scored 7 points but given how poorly the Jets played on offense and how well the Broncos played on defense that's all they needed from him. 7 came on Sanchez's pick 6 + 1 and the other 3 were from the Jets 19 yard punt. On Tebow's TD run the Jets for some reason blitzed from the inside instead of from the outsides and all the receivers were deep so there was nobody around to stop him once he managed to get around the corner.

[WayAbvPar]

Yeah, there was no excuse for leaving him room to scramble outside and walk in. Just a terrible call or terrible execution (or both).

[Paelos]

I dislike Tebow greatly as a person.

I understand hating his religion or his political shit. Hating him personally? That's the one thing I've never faulted him on. He seems like a genuinely nice guy.

[WayAbvPar]

I dislike Tebow greatly as a person.

I understand hating his religion or his political shit. Hating him personally? That's the one thing I've never faulted him on. He seems like a genuinely nice guy.

Proselytizing at every opportunity is part of his personality. Plenty of religious and conservative people who don't feel the need to burden the entire world with the beliefs at every step. Plenty of agnostic/atheist and liberal people too, for that matter.

[Paelos]

Given the message, I like it. It doesn't hurt to have a guy walking the walk in the NFL. It also doesn't hurt that when he thanks God for his success, he actually means it instead of just a random cliche.

[sickrubik]

I specifically steer clear of saying "hate". I dislike him for his stances on social issues, and a general annoyance with thanking your team second behind a magic man in the sky.

[WayAbvPar]

I think it is unbelievably arrogant to think that God gives a shit about you and how you play in a game. Or maybe he just likes you better than the other team, even if there are some true believers there too? STFU and play.

[Paelos]

I think it is unbelievably arrogant to think that God gives a shit about you and how you play in a game. Or maybe he just likes you better than the other team, even if there are some true believers there too? STFU and play.

I don't believe he thinks God propels him to victory. I think he thanks God for given him the chance to play in the NFL, and the opportunities to use his natural talents.

Plus he does thank his guys. In fact the first quote from him after the game was: "I think it was just a bunch of guys that kept fighting and that had been knocked down a bunch of times but continued to get back up. I’m just so proud of those guys for their resiliency, their patience and their determination.”

He's a nice dude, he's just religious.

[sickrubik]

He's a Focus on the Family stooge. He is far from "just" religious.