Japan [Tag: Fucked]

[Sand]

Umm, if they don't know that is or isn't related to the earthquake, how can they 'take a position'?

I am fully admitting I dont know jack shit about geology so take my ramblings with a grain of salt.
But, it doesnt seem like it would be that hard to discern?
1, Huge thing called ring of fire in the pacific.
2. Volcanoes (geographically near epicenter of quake) that have been inactive 52+ years start spewing shit out within the last 70 days (indicating seismic/mantle activity?)
3. Boom! Huge earthquake (and all kinds of related volcanoes all near the same geographic region start spewing)

Is it that hard to make an educated judgment on?
(I've been drinking as well, so dont hold this against me)

[Sand]

If Mt. Hood or Rainier blew anytime this year, you'd have plenty of people willing to swear it couldn't be a coincidence, but it almost certainly would be.
--Dave

Uhrr no. They are now predicting this. Either volcano or earth quake on western US coast. They say all the events this year through out ring of fire area has relieved stress everywhere BUT the western US coast line.

[Fordel]

It isn't anywhere near that simple, so yes, it would be hard to discern.



"I don't know" is a perfectly valid response to a question and is often the only answer we have with the information we have.

[MahrinSkel]

If Mt. Hood or Rainier blew anytime this year, you'd have plenty of people willing to swear it couldn't be a coincidence, but it almost certainly would be.
--Dave

Uhrr no. They are now predicting this. Either volcano or earth quake on western US coast. They say all the events this year through out ring of fire area has relieved stress everywhere BUT the western US coast line.

But *this* year?  Or next?  Or 10 years from now?  Or was Mt. St. Helens actually the first domino or explicit event in a string that has now resulted in the Sendai quake?  Nobody freaking knows.

--Dave

EDIT: The point is that we're talking about huge energies playing out over geologic time scales (where a thousand years is literally too short to be worth talking about).  That events occur in a tight window of time on *our* scale seems like conclusive proof of a relationship, but to the extent they are, it's probably because of their mutual relationship to events that happened a *long* time ago, in places we wouldn't notice if they happened *now*.

[lamaros]

Umm, if they don't know that is or isn't related to the earthquake, how can they 'take a position'?

I am fully admitting I dont know jack shit about geology so take my ramblings with a grain of salt.
But, it doesnt seem like it would be that hard to discern?
1, Huge thing called ring of fire in the pacific.
2. Volcanoes (geographically near epicenter of quake) that have been inactive 52+ years start spewing shit out within the last 70 days (indicating seismic/mantle activity?)
3. Boom! Huge earthquake (and all kinds of related volcanoes all near the same geographic region start spewing)

Is it that hard to make an educated judgment on?
(I've been drinking as well, so dont hold this against me)

I don't know if your drunk ignorant self would know more about geology than those who are not drunk or ignorant and tackle it professionally every day of their lives, but I am willing to bet that any correct assumptions on your part would certainly be coincidence only.

[Rendakor]

I don't know if your drunk ignorant self would know more about geology than those who are not drunk or ignorant and tackle it professionally every day of their lives, but I am willing to bet that any correct assumptions on your part would certainly be coincidence only.

[Khaldun]

In all likelihood, the connections between seismic events at human time scales aren't only unknown to us at the moment, they're likely unknowable, because this is a classic example of a complex system in action. Events are surely connected, but probably never reducible to "this happened, so that will happen". So for all intents and purposes at the time scales we live at the answer is empirically "coincidence"--that's not just a fudge, it's pretty much the truth. Meaningful patterns of interconnected geological events are necessarily only going to appear at much longer time scales, scales at which individual earthquakes or eruptions are unimportant. I'm sure there were some spectacular singular eruptions in the formation of the Deccan Traps, but what really matters is that an entire region was erupting constantly for 25,000 years or so, maybe because of a major impact on the other side of the world.

[MahrinSkel]

More bad shit, not seeing it anywhere but BBC's live text stream:

0221: Urgent: Explosion at Reactor 3 - AFP.
0220: Sea level has dropped five metres off Fukushima, confirming imminent arrival of tsunami - Japanese TV.
0218: Column of smoke escaping from Reactor 3 at the Fukushima 1 nuclear power plant - Japanese TV.
0216: Grimmer news on the recovery operation in Minamisanriku: about 1,000 bodies found there, according to Kyodo.
0214: Evacuation order issued in the city of Hachinohe in the north-east - Kyodo
0212: Tsunami feared to reach north-eastern coast "in minutes" - Kyodo.
0210: North-eastern coast on the alert for a 3-metre tsunami - Japan's Jiji news agency.

--Dave

[Khaldun]

Operators are reporting that the reactor is intact after the explosion.

[Rendakor]

Wait, another tsunami is on the way?

[Der Helm]

Apparently there was another (major) aftershock quake.

[schild]

2,000 bodies were found along the Miyagi coast.

Murphy's Law doesn't seem to care about the science of Nuclear Physicists and Engineers.

The new explosion at 11:15 Fukushima time was a Hydrogen explosion.

[schild]

Latest tsunami warning seems to have been a false alarm.

Edit: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110314/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_nuclear_crisis Info about the Hydrogen explosion.

[MournelitheCalix]

I wish we could do more to help these great and proud people.  The tragedy that is unfolding is just beyond words to properly describe.  I can't imagine what will happen if they lose control of even one of those reactors.  I read that they have five in one site.  This is just unimaginable.

[bhodi]

I can't imagine what will happen if they lose control of even one of those reactors.  I read that they have five in one site.  This is just unimaginable.

Worst case? Probably less than 2% of what's already been done by the tsunami. Nuclear hysteria is at an all-time high.

[MournelitheCalix]

I can't imagine what will happen if they lose control of even one of those reactors.  I read that they have five in one site.  This is just unimaginable.

Worst case? Probably less than 2% of what's already been done by the tsunami. Nuclear hysteria is at an all-time high.

Looking at what happened at Chernobyl, the hysteria is justified.  I think the worst case scenario is too horrendous to contemplate.  Would Japan have to be evacuated? I am not sure how it could not, especially if the drinking water itself became exposed.  It was my understanding of Chernobyl that this is what the worst case scenario truly was in Russia.

[TripleDES]

Stupid azn fuckers! Serves them well! This is karma for Pearl Harbor, bitches!

[Goumindong]

Calm down folks: Here is a calming piece written by a Nuke PHD over at MIT

https://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

The hydrogen explosions likely are not serious, caused by the released steam turning into hydrogen and oxygen.

They can release into the superstructure or outside of the superstructure. The superstructure does not do any actual containment.

They would release into the superstructure if they were detecting isotopes (or thought they were) that would have moderately more harmful effects if released directly into the atmosphere. The explosions was likely a known possibility and did not damage the actual containment of the material

[Abagadro]

Insane footage of tsunami at ground level.

[Sand]

I don't know if your drunk ignorant self would know more about geology than those who are not drunk or ignorant and tackle it professionally every day of their lives, but I am willing to bet that any correct assumptions on your part would certainly be coincidence only.

The experts were predicting the death "may" reach 1,000 deaths as well. I fell fairly certain my prediction for ten times that was more accurate. But what the fuck do I know?

And I freely admitted my ignorance. I was hoping for feedback from someone who might know more? Who knows maybe there is a geologist roaming the forums?

[Chimpy]

Looking at what happened at Chernobyl, the hysteria is justified. 

No, the hysteria is in no way justified.

If you even read just what was said in this thread so far, you would know that the only real similarities between Chernobyl and these plants were that they were both producing electricity with nuclear fission.

[MahrinSkel]

Yeah, the steam/hydrogen explosions, although scary as shit, are not in and of themselves dangerous to anyone not in the immediate vicinity.  They're venting the steam to allow the fuel rods to be immersed, and because it contains cesium and radioactive iodine (and small traces of tri-uranium oct-oxide) they don't want to vent it directly to atmosphere if they don't have to.  So they vent it to the outer containment shell (the blocky building you see from outside).  But that's not really designed to hold pressure, and when it blows all the outer panels get blown out and you see the steel skeleton of the upper portion of that building.

The big difference between that and the equivalent US facility is that the outer containment of a US plant like Diablo Canyon would be the spherical concrete structure that *is* designed to stand up to high pressure.  So you wouldn't see this kind of blowout during venting there.

--Dave

[Sand]

Okay so another question, they say they are using sea water to cool the reactors in #1 and #3.
#3 just blew up for the first time.
With little or no surrounding structure or building left how exactly are they pumping seawater still into the reactor? Is it some poor guy with the equivalent of a lead suit and a large garden hose?  
Because their doesnt seem to be any surrounding building or plumbing left.



BTW. 7 people "missing" according to official reports, from the second hydrogen explosion at #3. They seem to hate to declare people dead in Japan. Like what? The firemen/electrical company responders teleported away and may return at some point?  Why not say they are searching for survivors of the blast or something, but when they keep saying they have "declared" them "missing" I'm like wtf? Of course this again just be attributable to our shitty US news services I guess?


Edit: Fixed my mistake on #3 blowing for second time. First explosion was reactor #1.

[Sheepherder]

We have like 20 Reactors in Ontario alone or something like that, but I have no idea on their specifics of operation.

CANDU.

[MahrinSkel]

Referring back to that diagram Arthur_Parker posted a page ago:



The part that blew out is the very upper section, which is not essential to the reactor systems.  The new *boom* seems a lot weaker, and is probably the steam being vented directly to atmosphere.  There's a lot of redundancy in those cooling systems, in terms of ways to get water in.



--Dave

[Hoax]

Looking at what happened at Chernobyl, the hysteria is justified. 

No, the hysteria is in no way justified.

If you even read just what was said in this thread so far, you would know that the only real similarities between Chernobyl and these plants were that they were both producing electricity with nuclear fission.

I'm just not sure I buy this line of reasoning. How bad does it have to be before people are allowed to be worried? We're at probable partial melting of fuel rods we hope we can keep this emergency cooling with seawater going right now and you're basically saying I don't see why anyone could imagine this might get worse.

[MahrinSkel]

The only scenario in which things get bad is one where there's a major containment breach.  As long as the containment holds, what happens inside is mostly of only minor interest.  In theory, even if there's a complete fuel meltdown, that containment should not breach, in spite of the big earthquake.

Obviously, we'd rather not find out, and the more damage occurs inside the containment, the harder it's going to be to clean up the mess later.

To put this in proportion, after the meltdown radiation levels at Chernobyl were over 3000 Sieverts.  The highest level reported here was 1000 *micro*-Sieverts (one 3,000,000th of the levels at Chernobyl).  The very worst exposure cases are being treated at the hospital, but mostly to get their systems flushed to reduce their chances of cancer later, not to treat radiation poisoning.

--Dave

[Fordel]

We have like 20 Reactors in Ontario alone or something like that, but I have no idea on their specifics of operation.

CANDU.

Ours can apparently use Thorium? Isn't that supposed to be the big deal thing these days? Also that name is hilarious.


-edit- At the Japanese plants, what DOES happen if containment is breached?



-edit2- On the other end, what is the shutdown of half a dozen nuke plants doing to Japans hydro? That seems like a non-trivial amount of power to not have access to anymore.

[Chimpy]

I'm just not sure I buy this line of reasoning. How bad does it have to be before people are allowed to be worried? We're at probable partial melting of fuel rods we hope we can keep this emergency cooling with seawater going right now and you're basically saying I don't see why anyone could imagine this might get worse.

Concern is entirely jusitified.

"OMG CHERNOBYL OMG OMG!" hysteria is not.

[Tale]

Just auto-tweeted from @NewEarthquake on Twitter - bigger and nearer the surface than any recent aftershock.

Preliminary: 6.1 earthquake, Off East Coast of Honshu, Japan. On 2011/03/14 06:12:35 UTC (9m ago, depth 9km). http://j.mp/hVOgEa

[UnSub]

I've wondered at some points if global warming could be an explanation behind some of the increased geological activity we are seeing. It's hard to google without coming across a lot of inanity, but some ideas point to potential thermal expansion of the plates (hotter atmosphere and warmer seas increase the size of the plate surfaces / how they interact) or even that higher sea levels put more pressure on the plates below them.

Not sure how well any of those theories will bear out, but just something I've been curious about.

[MahrinSkel]

About the only one with any merit is the glacial bounceback theory (remove the weight of ice, upset the geology).  But even that is comparatively minor.  The energy levels we're talking about completely swamp climatological effects.

--Dave

[apocrypha]

Calm down folks: Here is a calming piece written by a Nuke PHD over at MIT

https://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

Excellent link, that was 1000 times more informative than *anything* that's come out of the news media so far.

[Sheepherder]

Ours can apparently use Thorium? Isn't that supposed to be the big deal thing these days? Also that name is hilarious.

-edit- At the Japanese plants, what DOES happen if containment is breached?

-edit2- On the other end, what is the shutdown of half a dozen nuke plants doing to Japans hydro? That seems like a non-trivial amount of power to not have access to anymore.

It is an awesome name.

Heavy water designs burn pretty much everything.  This is because rather than enriching the fuel and using normal distilled water as a moderator which absorbs a small portion of the radioactive decay (neutrons) which starts fission, the heavy water design uses deuterium (heavy water, which has an additional neutron), which absorbs no neutrons and therefore fission occurs in fuels not normally considered fissile (unenriched uranium, thorium, spent fuel from LWR's).

Mahrin earlier sugested that coolant void coefficient is instrumental in safety, I offer a correction: it's only instrumental in safety to reactors likely to have coolant voids.  Technically the CANDU is "unsafe" by this metric, because it has a slight positive coolant void coefficient (losing coolant increases energy output).  However, the CANDU isn't likely to lose coolant, because the coolant is unpressurized and relatively cool compared to a light water reactor.  There is also the added benefit that in an unpressurized cooling tank there is absolutely no chance of building pressure ejecting the control rods, and that in the worst case it's significantly easier to get more coolant into the reservoir.

If containment is breached on any reactor, it usually means a full scale meltdown has occurred, and a shitton of radioactivity is free to fucking ruin your country.

Technically it's not "Hydro" in Japan.  Yeah, they're probably going to see brownouts depending on their total output capacity.

[Mosesandstick]

A coolant "void" refers to the formation of steam and the voids that occur in the process, not losing coolant.