Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[Chimpy]

I guess it'll get really hot by November, as the first deadline approaches and we all start making up numbers and our own "trustworthy sources".

What, a whole band of HRoses?

Gawd I need to take a vacation from f13 when that starts then.

 :-D

[eldaec]

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/temp/activity.htm

I hadn't heard about yet another press release about WoW numbers lately, and turns out they are dropping. Have been since a few weeks after BC.

Not falling a lot I grant you. But the trend has definitely changed.

They didn't add a seperate land mass with no pvp or something did they?

[waylander]

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/temp/activity.htm

I hadn't heard about yet another press release about WoW numbers lately, and turns out they are dropping. Have been since a few weeks after BC.

Not falling a lot I grant you. But the trend has definitely changed.

They didn't add a seperate land mass with no pvp or something did they?

My guild is about to dump WoW enmass, and several other guilds I know about have totally pulled out. We stayed in WoW like three years, and just can't take more levels and more grind.  At some point the raid content burns a guild's leadership out, and then the guild itself leaves for some new game.

The problem with the MMO market right now is that its dam near all clones so your choices are a piece of crap or a terd, but they both stink like shit.

[Modern Angel]

Moreover, you end up coming BACK to WoW because it does (for most) the whole level ding grats thing better than the others. What the fuck do you leave it for, LotRO?

[Yegolev]

EVE.  It's like a palete-cleanser.

[Righ]

Moreover, you end up coming BACK to WoW because it does (for most) the whole level ding grats thing better than the others. What the fuck do you leave it for, LotRO?

Minesweeper.

[Nebu]

CoH/CoV is a better palate cleanser for me.  The combat is fast, the z axis use is wonderful, and you can actually look different from everyone else.  NCSoft hasn't done the whole ding-gratz thing better, but they certainly did create a nice short-term alternative. 

[Modern Angel]

See, I couldn't do the CoH thing because it's just grrrrrrriiiinnnnnndddddd. I've never gotten a toon past level 20. I still resub every now and again in some vain hope that it will magically be less grindy than before. I am always disappointed.

[Venkman]

Yea, that's the rub. Where do you go from WoW after you've spent so much time playing it? 3 years is pretty consistent, so you obviously enjoy the formula enough. It's just that, as I think WUA said recently, with WoW there really isn't much reason to play any other DIKU unless you're looking for a narrower experience (DAoC), one that expands a different way (EQ2), or a buggier predecessor (anything else).

Damn... I didn't just ask for more DIKUs... did I?!

[Modern Angel]

Exactly. Here it is. With the exception of a scant, SCANT handful of other games (EVE, ohgodnotShadowbane, Planetside, SWG, maybe something else) diku IS the MMO market; this is with the caveat that I'm not counting Maplestory and all that stuff in the discussion. So you have diku and what's going to be better? It's done, it can't be done with more polish or more social options or more anything really.

People are going to keep trying, mind you, which just means that we all end up throwing our hands in the air and giving up on the medium like schild has. Because there is some crap out there.

[Signe]

I'm still subbed to CoX but I haven't played in a while.  I'll play a month or so and then take a couple of months or four off.  It's easy to get back in the game.  I don't cancel in between because I'm addicted to veteran rewards!   

[Merusk]

What the fuck do you leave it for, LotRO?

My EQ friends all dumped WoW for LotRO, with one going back to EQ1.  The LotR folks play it and CoH at the same time, and are huge Tolkien geeks, so that's the appeal there.  They Play CoH because they don't WANT an endgame..  They're happy to just level up with their college/ eq friends when they've got time away from their kids.  (This group has been gaming together since they attended Oberlin in '92)
The EQ1 guy wanted advancement after the level cap that didn't revolve around raiding, and "good gear" you could get without raiding/ rep grinds.  i.e. AAs and the EQ points-for-gear instances.  I'm the only one still there because I enjoy raiding and I'm in a guild that does raiding content.. (which has its own, separate set of headaches.)  After nearly 4 years I'm a bit sick of it though, and beginning to look for other experiences to get away from it for a bit.

Hades' group is leaving for Fury, and Warhammer.  I expect most PvPers to drop WoW like a bad habit as soon as something that appeals to them comes out, because WoW's sport pvp appeals to the casual, not the hardcore. 

As to what other folks leave it for.. well, consoles, single player games, or simply taking time away from MMOs/ PC games altogether (not unheard of, we're the freaks who always have to have a game  :-D )

[Simond]

The last press release for WoW was in July or August and was for reaching 9 million subs (up from eight million). This was before TBC launched in mainland China.
So either Blizzard is outright lying (which is all sorts of stupid - from a legal viewpoint, if nothing else) or something is up with the Warcraft Realms figures

[Venkman]

WarcraftRealms only does EU and US. I don't know what The9's policy is on user mods that assess player activity the same way. Heck, I don't know how much modding goes on over there if they're still predominantly playing in Internet Cafes of some sort. But regardless, WoW could be looking like it's declining in the West because it is declining in the West. But this isn't the death of WoW if they're increasing in China. It just means the amount of money Blizzard collects is different, because iirc they collect a licensing royalty from The9 on a monthly basis based on activity rather than collecting the full $14.99/mo(+VAT)

[squirrel]

Personally when I left WoW after TBC I didn't go to any other MMOG. I'd already played EVE and the rest are just sub-standard diku's as mentioned. Right now is probably the first time in 9 or 10 years I don't have a sub to a MMORPG. There's too many other good games out there to spend my admittedly limited time on. With my existing 360 titles needing finishing and the PC titles out/coming  (BioShock, TF2, Hellgate) why would I play a game that makes me endlessly grind for really limited reward?

[Venkman]

This is the first time in memory where the next things I'm looking forward to are not MMOs (Crysis and Team Fortress 2). Heck, we're largely in a dry spell until March or thereabouts.

I'm not counting Maplestory and all that stuff in the discussion

Ironically, Maplestory is just as much a DIKU as any DIKU. It's just a side scroller is all.

The other stuff though, yea, those are different. But most are really not all that appealing to folks who are looking for an alternative to WoW like gameplay.

[Trippy]

WoW could be looking like it's declining in the West because it is declining in the West.

Prove it.

[Venkman]

Prove what? Did you misread that? It's not a statement of fact but rather a statement of perception. If you look at the numbers and see a decline, it could be a decline. But there's no way to prove it without Blizzard saying something.

Edit: clarify

[Nebu]

I'm still trying to understand why the decline of WoW would be a bad thing. If it begins to lose favor then people may choose to actually develop something more than diku+shiny. 

[Merusk]

I'm still trying to understand why the decline of WoW would be a bad thing. If it begins to lose favor then people may choose to actually develop something more than diku+shiny. 

You're funny when you hope.

People said the same thing about EQ1.

[Nebu]

Hope is all I have at this point.  Don't rain on my parade.

[UnSub]

The last press release for WoW was in July or August and was for reaching 9 million subs (up from eight million). This was before TBC launched in mainland China.
So either Blizzard is outright lying (which is all sorts of stupid - from a legal viewpoint, if nothing else) or something is up with the Warcraft Realms figures

My understanding is that Blizzard has been accused in the past of massaging those player numbers a bit in order to keep up the appearance of growth. But yeah, it's an unfounded rumour unless Blizzard actually starts releasing montly player figures.

Which is not to say that WoW isn't the most successful western-developed diku ever - it is. But I think the gloss wore off a long time ago.

In one way that's why I like NCsoft - player numbers have to be reported as part of the shareholder obligations. I'm sure they massage the figures a bit too, but they have to be consistent about it.

[Margalis]

If WOW begins to significantly decline it will only encourage people to create another Diku + Shiny to capture the runoff.

The best thing as far as innovation would be for WOW to continue growing in popularity to the point where nobody will even consider making a directly competing product.

[shiznitz]

DIKU is really the only modern MMOG model that has proven to keep people subscribing for 3 years+. This is why it keeps getting development $. Someone who plays WoW for 3 years likes DIKU. If they say otherwise they are lying to themselves. The only encouraging non-DIKU trend is EVE slowly but steadily growing subscribers. SWG could have been the first really successful non-DIKU but they fucked it up with bugs galore.  Non-DIKU games succeed as short-term distractions, but in general they don't get the customer longevity. In a subscription business, customer longevity is 90%+ of the economics.

A MMOG needs to be designed with 2-5 month player stints in mind and a pricing model that works for that design. GW took a a shot and seems to be successful by selling 1 million boxes every 6 months (or whatever the numbers are.)

[UnSub]

I think the industry reliance on the diku model is likely to to doom it to a harsh fall. Anecdotally I believe that the first diku MMO you love sees you subscribe for a long time; any diku MMO after that point feels like you've already done it, so you don't play for as long.

However, there is some movement away from that model, as was noted above, as well as newer niche MMOs / FPS MMOs etc.

[Merusk]

My first DIKU was a Circle MUD some 12 years ago.  Shortly before that I messed with Gemstone III, Dragon Realms and a (very) brief stint in NWN.  I still like 'em and find new ways to fall for good variants on the system.   You'll find I'm not alone in that feeling, either.  So long as it's different enough from your most recent (or current) game of choice, there's no "I've already done this" feeling.

[Cheddar]

Where the fuck did my bets go?  I coulda swore I bet.  I was reeeeeally drunk around the month that bets were made so who knows.  Was there another thread and I forgot to repost/crosspost?

[Soukyan]

Wow... a lot of these comments remind me of forum comments when people started burning out on EQ1. Striking similarities. It's funny how much we change and yet, we don't.

[Venkman]

I think the industry reliance on the diku model is likely to to doom it to a harsh fall. Anecdotally I believe that the first diku MMO you love sees you subscribe for a long time; any diku MMO after that point feels like you've already done it, so you don't play for as long.

I don't think DIKUs are doomed to fail per se, but we'll definitely see some model changes. At heart, there's little wrong with XP, levels and unlocked abilities unto themselves. Some aspect of each works in way many more games than just DIKU MMOs. Where I see a huge growth potential is in UI and how character abilities are compartmentalized. For example, I liked the theory of TR's and AoC's UIs. What they turn out to be, well... And I really love GW's feature of bringing limited abilities to a battle but being able to change on the fly before entering the instance. None of these are really "mass market" games though. But then, the genre itself is still growing into that (makes most of its cash from plying deep rather than broad).

Truly experimental virtual lifestyle/metaverse/virtual reality games still have a lot of growth opportunity. But they're also the most risky. And generally the people with the most cash do not take the most risks with it. So as the genre continues to be driven by the "success" stories, we will get more derivation into minor-innovation land, leaving games like Eve in niche land proprortional to the total number of people playing.

[Engels]

People keep talking about DIKU like its still around in the original form. All I'm hearing nowadays is people using DIKU as a pejorative for an MMO they don't like. I'm failing to see these ebil elements from DIKU MUD games still alive. A scrolling chat with damage reported per hit doesn't make it DIKU anymore. That's simply a log output of damage dealt. Progressive linear character development isn't DIKU, its D&D.  'Zones' in the way 'rooms' were made in DIKU have been fading since AO's introduction of relatively seamless zone change.

Can someone define DIKU, or those aspects of the original DIKU that have carried over? Those elements specifically that cause certain somebodies *cough* schild *cough* to wave a dismissive hand at whatever MMO that comes to market that isn't a going to be a console game?

[shiznitz]

Elements that make a game DIKU:

1) an exponential experience level system
2) class system
3) mobs of higher level give more absolute exp but less relative exp, i.e. the PC exp curve ramps at a greater rate than the per kill exp earned
4) an equipment upgrade cycle that closely tracks the levelling curve, i.e. players need levels AND better loot to progress.
5) raiding is the endgame

These are somewhat in order of significance to being DIKU or not. You cannot be DIKU without 1, 2, and 3.

[Soln]

DIKU to me is still pretty much Combat Consumption == Progress, no matter how you it dress up or whatever carrots you want for an end game.  It's all about personal time FTW.  The only "skill" required per se is spoiler identification outside the game. 

[Xanthippe]

People keep talking about DIKU like its still around in the original form. All I'm hearing nowadays is people using DIKU as a pejorative for an MMO they don't like. I'm failing to see these ebil elements from DIKU MUD games still alive. A scrolling chat with damage reported per hit doesn't make it DIKU anymore. That's simply a log output of damage dealt. Progressive linear character development isn't DIKU, its D&D.  'Zones' in the way 'rooms' were made in DIKU have been fading since AO's introduction of relatively seamless zone change.

DIKU wasn't even the first mud to use all of those things.  Abermud (from which DIKU was derived) used them.  (I can attest to that, because I played Abermud - amazingly there are Abermuds up today, list here). 

The people who wrote Abermud played MUD1 (which I never played) and some of those things were in MUD1.  MUD1 was certainly influenced by the Colossal Cave and D&D, some elements of which will be found in WoW.

To what Shinznitz said, I'd add the term _linear_ progression as being part of it.

[Merusk]

5) raiding is the endgame

Not really fair to call that a part of a DIKU, since
1) There was no raiding in DIKU muds.
2) You can have raiding w/o the diku mechanics

DIKU has always been - to me - auto attack w/ specials, and combat-based advancement through XP.  Classes, or lack therof, are more D&D and I played plenty of DIKUs that gave you all the skills w/o a class.  The combat and advancement mechanics, however, were all the same.   Ditto on the gear/ equipment and Monster vs Player power ratios.  I played a few that flattened or 0'd out the gear portion of the game and the mob/ player HP/ damage with it but the combat was still the same.   

[HaemishM]

Wow... a lot of these comments remind me of forum comments when people started burning out on EQ1. Striking similarities. It's funny how much we change and yet, we don't.

It's not us that haven't changed, it's the games themselves. There isn't a whole fuckton of difference between EQ1 and WoW in terms of gameplay. It's EQ1 refined, and EQ1 was just DikuMUD with a 3d interface.