Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Sir T]

Gotta love those Corona Parties!

[Trippy]

So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.

You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave

I heard bubble blowers are a big hit in those kinds of gathering too.

Edit: add quote, page break

[HaemishM]

So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.

You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

And then board their house up with them all in it.

Optional: Light the motherfucker on fire just to be sure.

[schild]

So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.

You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave

Or arson.

Edit: Oh, new page, haemish said the obvious.

[Gimfain]

I got troubled by snow mold allergies bit over a week ago, itchy eyes, face feeling swollen around eyes and random sneezing when outdoors. Today I woke up by a mild sweat and bit moist pillow and body feels bit weird. If this would have been any other time I would have done exercise like normal but since nothing is normal I'm staying the fuck away from people.

Restaurant I work for is on the edge of toppling over, our biggest competitor gave up 1.5 week ago so it gave us some sort of minimal chance, also govt is doing some stuff to help businesses but we are all out of money. To make it worth investing more into company I did some calculations on what sort of numbers we could hope for in april and we told our largest creditors those numbers. Outcome for friday-saturday was a third of what I calculated, revenue for the weekend won't be enough to cover employee costs and not even close when you add raw material costs on top of that.

At least I shouldn't go to work tomorrow so can have that awful conversation with the owners on the phone instead.

[Korachia]

In 'just how stupid would you have to be' news...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to 5G.

I'm genuinely unsure if I have less respect for the idiots torching phone masts or the idiots putting quote marks around the work baseless.

Hahah I have an american friend I meet during my student exchange program many years ago, who keeps posting about this "theory" on facebook. He was actually quite a respectable person back then, before he got the crazies..  

[NowhereMan]

I actually had a social associate send that crap to a Whatsapp group. He's a nice guy and at least was posting it with a 'got sent this, is there anything to it?' rather than yelling about 5g cancers. Like all conspiracy theories there's about 6 different explanations of why 5g causes Coronavirus that are mutually exclusive but somehow all together provide 'more' proof than the single actual connection (nothing). The even more fun thing is that 5g signals are super short wave so the towers getting attacked are pretty much all 3/4g signal towers so the only people who are going to have any fucking data signal if these guys get going are people on 5g networks.

[Korachia]

Hah that's hilarious! I bet you they will have a conspiracy for that too.

What bugs me, is that in times of great uncertainty and insecurity like now, regular and low-information individuals are more prone to be influenced by these wretched and harmful mistruths.

[jgsugden]

I wish the people in my area cared enough to have conspiracy theories.  A lot of them - even former New Yorkers that have friends in the city - are just not taking this seriously.

[Korachia]

That´s really self-centered, to the point of being egoistic. While they might not suffer too much, they could become carriers and infect old/vulnerable people. I don´t understand how they cannot take it just a bit seriously.

[Khaldun]

Because they think it's a case of probability: "oh, even if I'm exposed, I'm only 3% likely to die and not that likely to have a serious case, so who cares". There are things in life where yes, you can go ahead and take risks where probability is that much in your favor. But what they refuse to see is that it's not their individual chances that are the issue here. If almost all of us who *can* stay isolated stay isolated, we're improving everyone's collective probability--changing what might be a 6-8% mortality to a 3% one, say.

I put it this way to a colleague who is maybe the only person around here who doesn't really understand what the big deal is. There's about 170 professors and instructors here. If 2% of us die, that's 3 people. In a given year, 3 serving faculty dying during a semester is unheard of--in the last three decades, I can only think of two faculty dying during an academic year. If 5% of us die, that's 8 or 9 of us. If 9% of us die, that's sixteen or so. If you can turn 8 or 9 percent to 2 percent, it's a huge difference in human terms, whatever your own individual exposure to risk might be.

[Sky]

I feel like more people need to see what it's like to be intubated for a couple weeks. Just because 'you might not die', there's still a good chance that you'll experience the worst week or two of your life. And you may have long-term effects from the fibrosis in your lungs, and even the intubation itself. The fiancee's throat never recovered from her 2015 intubation (and that was just a small stomach drainage tube), she's had a persistent nagging cough for five years now.

People are excellent at rationalizing all kinds of really stupid behavior.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/05/youre-basically-right-next-nuclear-reactor/

Why would you not want to avoid being the victim here?

[MahrinSkel]

I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

[Lucas]

I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

*distanced hug*

[Chimpy]

I had to have a tube run down my nose into my stomach to pump out some pretty nasty stuff when I had an abcess from leftover appendix goo in my abdomen after my appendix was removed several years ago. Was the worst 4 days of my life.

[Rasix]

I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

Luckily enough I can't remember any of the time that I was intubated for my back surgery. My mom said it was one of the most horrifying things she's ever seen in her life. I do remember my throat feeling like someone had ripped a garden hose wrapped in barbed wire out of it.

The one time I did wake up, apparently I was on too many drugs to remember. I was told that I punched a nurse. That must have been interesting..

[MahrinSkel]

I knocked out a resident. Also pulled out a chest tube. I remember the chest tube, but not the resident. Explains why I was in restraints for the parts I do remember.

--Dave

[Mandella]

Regardless, I live in a state where the Governor thinks we're unique and we don't need a shelter in place order.  S

That may be for the best for you if you are like our situation in Georgia, where when the Governor finally took action his restrictions where actually less than many of the measures local communities had already put in place.

Got a good meme out of it though.

[Sky]

New twist to being the facilitator, shopper, and all-around point man for two households: my ankle. As in, I twisted it yesterday.

It was beautiful out, so I very carefully (nursing my persistent shoulder injury). Was just going to move 2-3 wheelbarrowfulls of split wood from the front yard to the back yard. Very first load, twisted my ankle (uneven ground because of skunk overpopulation, they dig the shit out of the yard). I swear the tree is cursed (my shoulder injury and almost losing 3 fingers, exacerbated my previous ankle injury on the OTHER ankle, now this).

I put this wonderful little tale in this thread because it kinda fucked us as far as dealing with the day-to-day of the current situation. Good times.

[jgsugden]

Recent numbers have drastically dropped the expected numbers of deaths relative to prior data from the same models.  The inclusion of information from Spain and Italy (instead of relying heavily on China data) have had some dramatic effect.s   We'll see if that holds true.  US projected dead (by August 1) are at a little over 80K.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 

We shall see....

[Sir T]

The key is this caveat right at the top.

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

Not a hope.

[HaemishM]

I'm just about 100% positive that social distancing will be removed in my state by the end of April. I'm also 100% positive it will not be kept in place here through the end of May. Schools may be closed but businesses will be allowed to reopen whether it's a good idea or not.

[Brolan]

Even here in Minnesota they may allow some businesses to reopen.  They are getting nervous about the economy.

[Hawkbit]

New twist to being the facilitator, shopper, and all-around point man for two households: my ankle. As in, I twisted it yesterday.

It was beautiful out, so I very carefully (nursing my persistent shoulder injury). Was just going to move 2-3 wheelbarrowfulls of split wood from the front yard to the back yard. Very first load, twisted my ankle (uneven ground because of skunk overpopulation, they dig the shit out of the yard). I swear the tree is cursed (my shoulder injury and almost losing 3 fingers, exacerbated my previous ankle injury on the OTHER ankle, now this).

I put this wonderful little tale in this thread because it kinda fucked us as far as dealing with the day-to-day of the current situation. Good times.

Get these, wear them while it's healing:  https://www.amazon.com/Salonpas-Relieving-Shoulder-Muscle-Soreness/dp/B01ITWHT7C/ref=sr_1_6?dchild=1&keywords=salonpas&qid=1586310324&sr=8-6

It's essentially putting an 8-hour Icy Hot in place. They have saved my shit a few times and I SWEAR they have improved my recovery times.

EDIT: Also, get healing fast, man.

[Sky]

My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole Hydroxychloroquine thing is a pump-n-dump scheme 

[Salamok]

My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole HydroxychloroquineTrump presidency thing is a pump-n-dump scheme 

FTFY

[Sky]

Nah, he's running more NYC scams than just the one.

[Tale]

Recent numbers have drastically dropped the expected numbers of deaths relative to prior data from the same models.  The inclusion of information from Spain and Italy (instead of relying heavily on China data) have had some dramatic effect.s   We'll see if that holds true.  US projected dead (by August 1) are at a little over 80K.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 

We shall see....

Running at 2000/day at the moment in the US and rising. Looks much worse than that figure.

[Trippy]

COVID-19 may be twice as contagious as previous estimates (median R₀ 5.7).

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

[schild]

So, in short, China is a big sack of fucking liars and they have like 50m cases. Coolcoolcoolcoolcool.gif

[jgsugden]

Running at 2000/day at the moment in the US and rising. Looks much worse than that figure.

1900 or so, but yeah - huge spike today.  It spiked up to nearly double after slower growth for several days.  However, you have to expect a few spikes.  If we climb significantly again tomorrow and the next day, then we can worry that the projections are way off.

They think we're a few days away from the peak and then due to decline (across the US) with an expected value of deaths per day (DPD) capping out in the 2200 range this weekend. That means we can likely expect some spikes up to 3000 here or there over the next several days with some dips maybe as low as 1000.  This close to the projected peak, we would not expect to see such a massive shift.  However, some shit places, like my state, won't cap on DPD for several weeks, yet, and then it will still only be in the teens as an expected average (although given the state of shitty distancing I've seen, it could be weeks more before we peak, and our peak may last longer).

[HaemishM]

A lot of those more optimistic projections are predicated on maintaining social distancing rules until at least August.

That's not going to happen.

[Tale]

They think we're a few days away from the peak and then due to decline (across the US)

The accumulation of deaths is a delayed result of the following patterns, so I can't agree with them yet.

[Pennilenko]

Personally, I think the numbers are shit. Mostly because testing is still lackluster. Although it is anecdotal, my wife was on a video call with her doctor for a cough and sore throat. The doctor told her that there would be no testing unless she went to a specific emergency room with breathing trouble. I really think there are a huge number of cases not being tested, especially in Florida.

[HaemishM]

I'm pretty much just expecting that the number of ACTUAL cases not being tested is anywhere from 2x to 10x what we are seeing reported as actual cases. My state stopped reporting the number of tested over a week ago, and is only giving out the number of positive cases. "Only 2,000 new cases!" means nothing if you only tested 3,000 people who showed the worst symptoms.