f13.net

I have made the decision to conduct our upcoming championship events, including the Division I men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, with only essential staff and limited family attendance.

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson confirmed as having coronavirus in Australia.

Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

We are fine. Unfortunately we have been in contact with someone with Corona virus on Monday morning at [activity] and were not advised until 30 minutes ago. The others in the group just heard today too. [Name] let the health authorities know and I now have the email.  Isolation until [date] March. We are not sure whether to go home or not. I would like to. Anyway no signs of it yet, but we have been in contact with lots of people at the supermarket and [name] and [name] and more!

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

The answer is that Italy has 3.6 beds per 100,000 people and did not do significant testing and screening. SK has like 25 beds per 100k and agressively screened people. This means that SK caught a lot more cases and prevented spread to vulnerable populations

While Italy is out of respirators and is letting everyone over 65 take their chances without effective treatment.

Basically this, Italy let the number of cases spiral out of control without effective mechanisms to slow the spread and the hospital system got completely overwhelmed.  As a result hospitals were forced to triage and basically told anyone over 65 or with a pre-existing condition they are on their own.  That's why you also see such high mortality in Iran.  there is a significant subset of the infected population that will require hospitalization and respirators. If you overrun the system mortality rates spike.  This is why there is this desperate push in the epidemiological community to get folks to socially distance in the US, because we are basically 10-20 days away from this right now.

In a week or 2 we should start seeing waves of bilateral interstitial pneumonia and sepsis at hospitals around the country.

The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash.

To keep the number of patients from overwhelming our medical system, we need to take drastic measures, like stop congregating in crowds and stay home if you can. If you have flu-like symptoms, self-isolate or wear a mask.

Those of you in the medical field need to prepare. Learn what to look for and how to treat it. Prepare your resources now. And most definitely learn how to don and doff PPE correctly and comfortably.

Since 1988

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

The Serbian Prime Minister coughing while a journalist asks him about coronavirus.  (https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1238182607126396931?s=19)

If you want to hear what the coronavirus cough sounds like...

Governor Gavin Newsom and public health officials have ordered Californians to cancel or postpone gatherings of 250 or more people statewide through the end of March to slow the spread of the potentially deadly coronavirus disease COVID-19. The new order further calls for canceling or postponing even smaller gatherings where those attending cannot keep six feet apart from each other, and limiting groups of older or unhealthier people more vulnerable to the disease to no more than 10.

Newsom made clear in a Thursday morning press conference that he considers the order to be mandatory. He acknowledged some questions about the state’s authority, but said “we have tools in our toolkit” if anyone resists.

The ban — which Newsom’s office announced at 11 p.m. Wednesday — applies to all non-essential professional, social and community gatherings regardless of their sponsor. That includes sporting events and concerts, Newsom said Thursday. It does not apply to activities such as attendance at regular school classes, work, or essential services, or to essential public transportation, airport travel, or shopping at a store or mall. It also does not apply to congregate living situations, including dormitories and homeless encampments. “Essential gatherings should only be conducted if the essential activity could not be postponed or achieved without gathering, meaning that some other means of communication could not be used to conduct the essential function,” Newsom’s office said. The directive also does not include casinos, theaters, and large parks like Disneyland

Clip was cut. he choked on water 2 seconds beforehand. That's why no one was actually concerned.

Washington State is closing all schools until end of April, press conference at 2pm.

Hmm. Wonder if my son's Little League season actually happens. Of course, Arizona has a history if disregarding any safety suggestions.

Satellite images show Iran has built mass graves amid coronavirus outbreak
Trenches in city of Qom confirm worst fears about extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up

Julian Borger in Washington
Thu 12 Mar 2020 21.52 GMTLast modified on Thu 12 Mar 2020 22.24 GMT

Satellite images of mass graves in the city of Qom suggest Iran’s coronavirus epidemic is even more serious than the authorities are admitting.

The pictures, first published by the New York Times, show the excavation of a new section in a cemetery on the northern fringe of Iran’s holy city in late February, and two long trenches dug, of a total length of 100 yards, by the end of the month.

They confirm the worst fears about the extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up. On 24 February, at the time the trenches were being dug, a legislator from Qom, 75 miles (120 km) south of Tehran, accused the health ministry of lying about the scale of the outbreak, saying there had already been 50 deaths in the city, at a time when the ministry was claiming only 12 people had died from the virus nationwide.

Australia's Home Affairs Minister (ex-cop and seeming wannabe Nazi) Peter Dutton has been diagnosed with COVID-19. He recently returned from a trip to Washington DC.

The White House will refuse to test for it, and is now spreading it through the Federal Government.

Swedish govt made a huge declaration regarding covid-19 same day as who declared it a pandemic. As someone that handles finances for a sports restaurant/night club its going to fuck the place properly. There was going to be a large sports event in my town with swedish champions for smaller winter sports and its cancelled. Icehockey and basktball cancelled, european cup cancelled, all company groups cancel, booking for friday and saturday is what we normally have for regular week days, friday lunch we lost 30% of what we regularly have.

I'm doing liquidity calculation now but it would probably be better if I just made job applications instead since this place is fucked.

I think the Italy higher mortality is mostly because Italy is notoriously bad about organizing anything, they aren't even coming close to identifying how many people in the country were actually infected.  I think the SK mortality numbers probably hold true for many other countries because they seem to be the only ones going out of their way to identify everyone who is infected.  Good care for the seriously affected and paranoid level sanitary practices will save lives but not testing and including 50%+ of the population that is infected will have the greatest impact on the mortality rate statistic (and possibly cause more deaths than anything else because of the mildly effected wandering around not knowing they are spreading it). 

edit - and I don't know what le fuck is up with Austin but there is some seriously zombie apocalypse levels of paranoia going on here while the city/state/school districts have basically been stating for days there are zero newly documented cases in the area until today they released info on 2.  The message has been just keep doing your normal routines and ignore the fact that we just banned public gatherings at the cost of 10's of millions of dollars.  Went to the supermarket for some ice cream last night at 9:30pm and people were lined up and down the aisles with carts overflowing waiting to check out.

 Went to the supermarket for some ice cream last night at 9:30pm and people were lined up and down the aisles with carts overflowing waiting to check out.

So we are trying to get stuff in order for a portion of people WFH. Unfortunately we are a manufacturer so we have to have people onsite to actually do work. We have a plan in place for who can work from home but the list is roughly 1/3 of our employee count. In our factory people are pretty spread out with only a few people per building. They are trying to make sure we get stuff shipped out as quickly as possible to make sure our customers have what they need in case we have to limit production. So far we haven't had any outbreaks in our area although our hospital has a few confirmed patients from other more rural areas
 

I went to the store today and it was pretty normal outside of a lot of bottled water being purchased and hand sanitizer/wipes/toilet paper being mostly sold out. They had sold a fair amount of pasta and some other common bunker-type sundries but there was still plenty of most stuff in.

Parking lot wasn't super full at the one I went to, people were pretty orderly, checkout lines were running pretty well. This was at a bit after lunch though. So I dunno what it'll look like after work lets out or the weekend hits.

My wife's cousin in New York state (not far from New Rochelle, where the quarantine has been) who manages a supermarket said they did more business yesterday and today than they have ever done before. The store is basically empty of almost anything. She said folks were buying Twinkies, Mr. Clean, charcoal, Cheeze Whiz, just about anything you could buy.

A good Japanese butt cleaning toilet starts at $3500. So, no? Your ass doesn't stay clean while you're saving up for a toilet.

A good Japanese butt cleaning toilet starts at $3500. So, no? Your ass doesn't stay clean while you're saving up for a toilet.

Holy shit. From my parents who are visiting a town a few hours north. Identifying details removed. I last saw them on Saturday.


Their doctor has summoned them home and will swab them in his car park.

Those pants tho

You can also get kits that attach to existing toilets.

They have dropped to sub 1000 over here and nearly every manufacturer of toilet ceramics offers multiple different series of them

i have NO idea why people are buying water

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection)

tldr: Don't take anything for the fever, if you must take something for body aches/headache, take Tylenol. Better plan: Suffer, neither one is going to kill you, and it appears to contribute to it progressing to pneumonia in younger patients. Also multiple similar reports out of Italy and Switzerland.

--Dave

If you're in the US, go read the CDC guidance.

No, seriously.  Go do it. 

Look at what they tell you to do, and what they tell you not to do.  Note what they say nothing about and ask how hard it would have been for the to say, "Don't do that, either."  People are calling others out for being stupid and irresponsible when they're doing nothing ill advised at all in the eyes of the CDC, the experts.

This virus is going to do a lot of damage.  Know what else is?  The people overreacting and doing harmful things out of paranoia, misinformation and fear.  Especially the assholes hording things they do not need that others need right now.

I'm ok with thinking I'm an over-reacting douchebag at this point.

The surface thing is precautionary. I don't think there's been a single case of transmission that way, and given china there would've been.

I have all symptoms except a fever. It's virtually impossible to get tested in Arizona, however. Yay.

I personally know one person who has self quarantined. She has symptoms and has properly reported herself to her doctor and been told to just keep doing what she is already doing. No test, so no attempt at officially checking her recent contacts either.

Canadian friends with all symptoms took the test twice and it came back negative both times, she just has a bad (something else).

Not enough tests to go around? Maybe in the US?

We could text 12,000 people per day if we wanted to. Our labs would not do anything else anymore but we could

The wife and I both developed tightness in the chest and she's got a scratchy throat, so far, no fevers or anything else. We're also worried we're being overly paranoid but better safe than sorry.

It's also allergy season now (at least around here) so that's not helping.

Update: they're getting swab results tomorrow (Monday Aussie time). They're still not sick, but one person who was in their group has got sick so it' s pretty close thing. Delivered groceries to their doorstep yesterday and waved through the window. Actually happy to see them going through this now, as they'll definitely get treatment if it happens, and they're protected from the virusy world [unless I turn out to be sick and gave it to them via the groceries].

all that's left is food

Considering the fact that it is already a global pandemic and the lack of testing.....isn’t that the right approach?  It no longer matters where it is coming from, that phase is over.  And considering the lack of available testing, they cannot afford to test anyone who is not in serious condition.

Well, not according to the World Health Organization, who just yesterday was recommending less "social distancing" and more real tests, including running down and testing previous contacts.

The disease is not past the point of testing being useful in the US yet. In two weeks, it may be.

Update: my parents tested negative. Phew. They've still gotta complete the 2-week quarantine, which is actually peace of mind for me because it protects them... Give it another week and a bit, we'll probably all be in lockdown.

The bad: I am one of 2-3 people who will continue to report as usual

I've been trying out the latest and greatest ramen place* near me since they opened in February and hot soups in general and spicy hot soups in particular give me a runny nose. So people have been looking at me funny while I'm blowing my nose :awesome_for_real:

* they don't / didn't do take out so I skipped last week and they better change that policy if they want to stay in business

Welp, I may be screwed. The grandmother of a classmate of one of my kids is currently in the hospital with "unspecified viral pneumonia", her doctors think it is COVID but they can't get her tested. My kid was sick early last week with an unidentified virus, and my SO was really sick later in the week, we assumed from the same thing (they both tested negative for flu and bacterial infection). I was caring for the kid most of the time, so I'm very exposed to whatever it is.

Fucking irony if I get Coronachan because I wasn't paranoid enough. There were no known cases in the state, but if anyone should have known that didn't mean the state was clear, it's me.

--Dave

Symptoms?

I felt a tickle in my throat a few times last week, and what feels like the beginning of a sinus infection today. Could be something else, could be psychosomatic from obsessing over the symptoms and epidemiology of COVID. Checking my temperature regularly, haven't had a fever. We have an oximeter for the kid's asthma, going to watch that as well.

--Dave

Sigh, yeah, my boomer father who does a lot of travel across all of Northern California as a sales/contract guy, is in full denial mode.  Talking to me about how our commie governor has the state on Martial law over just a few cases of the disease.  Trying to talk sense into him about the practical reasons this is serious, but going to take stuff closer to home for it to sink in I think.  Which I'm very afraid will be his significant other, who has some serious lung issues (hurray a life of smoking), who will 100% die if she caught it.

Really need some high profile GOP asshole to drop dead from this to at least maybe possibly get the fear of god into that group of people.

lol at all the 15s and 20s k

69 more cases confirmed in Ireland, bringing the total to 292.

Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.

I thought everybody in Utah keeps at least a year's worth of food and essentials stockpiled. Okay, maybe that's just the Mormons, but they should have plenty to share with the non-Mormons right? :awesome_for_real:

Mnuchin apparently told a bunch of GOP asshats in a call yesterday that he expects unemployment to hit at least 20%.

Unless trump suddenly becomes a socialist, he's probably fucked. Then again, Americans are stupid, so hey..

I still don't get the hand sanitiser thing. Is water that scarce you can't wash your hands? Sanitiser isn't as effective, and is gross.

Jeremy C. Young
@jeremycyoung
Profile picture
16 hours ago, 21 tweets, 4 min read

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end

So a train is on a track, 5 workers ahead and you can switch tracks to kill 1 worker on a side spur...

Given how prolonged and damaging this is going to be to the global economy, I can't help but think maybe it would be less damaging to the other 7 billion people on the planet to let the thing run it's course.

But a primary human trait (that has limited our progress greatly) is selfishness. I prefer isolation and curve-flattening because we both have senior parents we are concerned for and are personally not in too much jeopardy of real hardship, though the likelihood is there for years of really bad times around the world as decades of globalizations now bites us hard.

On the other hand, a second primary human trait is stupidity (statistically speaking), so the teeming hordes of {dumb shit deniers/kids/religious zealots/whatever rationalization for ignoring science} will likely mean millions will die anyway and we will still go through a long period of social, economic, and personal hardships.

On the third hand, how many will die due to the hardships? How can we recover from a 20% unemployment rate? It will destroy the already precarious house of cards built by the finance world and politicians where massive debt is the norm, what happens when credit is no longer any good and 20% of the population (in the US, let alone other economies) has no income and can't access credit (directly or via the government borrowing money to give them)?

Just putting it out there as a thought experiment, not actually advocating for the deaths of millions. But if we just said 'fuck it, everyone go back to work', we could avoid the impending global financial catastrophe that will affect 99.9% of the humans on the planets. So should billions suffer to save millions?

Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

You have to remember you are looking back in time.  It’s what was being done wrong a few weeks ago.  Like, I don’t know, everywhere else in the world that is not SK or China.  Italy is just in the front of the curve.

Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.

probably has more to do with co-variation between desert climates and Iran/Eqypt

So there was a earthquake in the Salt Lake City Utah area today....

Simple tip seen on Facebook.  I only have a small bottle of hand sanitzer, and it seems at least for a while that one will need such a thing on hand for the next several months any time forced to interact with the public.  Of course, it is sold out everywhere I look.

But what isn't sold out?  Isopropyl alcohol and Aloe Vera.  I guess you just make a 2 to 1 mixture, and BAM, there's your sanitizer.

My wife just bought 3 aloe plants and 2 bottles of iso alcohol for just such a task. I tried to tell her she's probably tripped over into overreaction a bit but she's stubborn. Also, she may be right so yay?

My son's friend's dad killed himself on Sunday. The guy had some mental health issues and apparently was convinced he had cancer for like the past year. I didn't know this about him, and the guy seemed nice enough and upbeat the few times I hung out with him last year. The whole corona virus situation I guess pushed him over the edge.

Sucks. He had two kids and a wife that works part time.

Anyhow, I suppose we'll see some people broken by this. Keep safe and healthy everyone.

If you have other medical issues and are in the hospital right now corona is already messing up your chances to survive. We have only six corona deaths here but I know personally two incidents where just the fear of it has affected treatment for individuals.

I live in what was the hardest hit county in California until Los Angeles* passed us recently :awesome_for_real: :oh_i_see: :ye_gods:

At least we don't have a butt-head governor like you do.

* but my county has a lower population so we're still way ahead per-capita

Well your reported cases are going up exponentially too so it probably won't be too long before people will be asked/ordered to self-isolate.

Feb 22: 22  reported cases
Feb 29: 25
Mar 07: 71
Mar 14: 295
Mar 19: 757

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm

Sadly that's not a cure.

Florida is about to go all pear shaped on us:

https://healthweather.us/ (https://healthweather.us/)

tldr: "Flu Like Illness" is code for "we think COVID but we can't test for it because the proper hoops haven't been jumped through." 4.5M olds in Florida.

--Dave

Edit: Grey doesn't really mean 'normal', it means not enough data because nobody fucking lives there.

I have about a 2 week supply left but I am starting to regret not buying a jumbo pack of TP when I went out for ice cream last week and saw the beginning of the apocalyptic run on the grocery store. There is probably enough food in the house to last as long as the TP.  My wife did make an attempt to go to the store today and said it is still crazy, even less on the shelves than there was 4 days ago.

The TP shortage will not last forever.  If you get desperate, use a washcloth and wash it.  

edit - I took a quick look here is some absolute saint of a human being selling a package of TP for $40 (not to mention $30 shipping and handling) (https://www.ebay.com/itm/Angel-Soft-264-Sheets-Unscented-Toilet-Paper-12-Pieces-White/174225421263).

A new message in hard-hit areas: Don’t get tested

Health officials in New York, California and other hard-hit parts of the country are restricting coronavirus testing to health-care workers and people who are hospitalized, saying the battle to contain the virus is lost and we are moving into a new phase of the pandemic response.

As cases spike sharply in those places, they are hunkering down for an onslaught, and directing scarce resources where they are needed most to save people’s lives. Instead of encouraging broad testing of the public, they’re focused on conserving masks, ventilators, intensive care beds — and on getting still-limited tests to health-care workers and the most vulnerable. The shift is further evidence that the rising levels of infection and illness have begun to overwhelm the health care system.

Health officials are struggling with a complicated message — more people can get tested, but those with mild symptoms should stay home and practice social distancing. Some go so far as to warn that widespread testing at this point could threaten the U.S. response by burning through precious supplies just as a tidal wave of sick people descend on the system — a message at odds with administration announcements that millions of test kits are finally becoming available.

“In a universe where masks and gowns are starting to become scarce, every time we test someone who doesn’t need one, we’re taking that mask and gown away from someone in the intensive care unit,” said Demetre Daskalakis, deputy commissioner for the Division of Disease Control of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

Not sure about the US but certainly in the UK the situation is much less down to hoarding or panic buying and actually a symptom of the 'just in time', maximally lean supply chain management system that makes modern supermarkets profitable. Supply is very closely calibrated to normal, seasonal, consumption patterns. A 10% increase because people are grabbing a few extra packs of pasta or suddenly getting an extra couple of tinned beans each trip quickly adds up to empty shelves. The psychological effect of seeing things getting sold out means other people buying crap they normally wouldn't because there isn't anything else and even though deliveries are still coming through, the shelves aren't staying stocked because modern food supply chains cannot easily or quickly adjust for sudden changes in consumption even if those changes aren't especially large.

There are certainly cases of people buying a lot more than they need but, in the UK at least, they aren't impacting things on a systemic level. They're assholes and easy to point blame at but  shelves are empty because of all the people following the sensible advice of stocking up a little bit extra on all your normal shopping trips with durable goods.

Spain looks like it's on a sharper curve than even the UK. It's both impressive and terrifying and leaves me really wondering what the fuck is going on there considering how laissez faire the UK response has been.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Furloughed employees often don't qualify as they are still officially "on the books" of the company, just not working/getting paid.

Furloughed workers qualify in Texas.

Apply in Texas. Why the fuck not who cares. Apply in both places.

The one damn thing Abbot (our moron fucking governor) has done right is waive a lot of the unemployment barriers. He's literally done nothing else about this crisis.

First state to have drivethrough testing and we were expanding before any other state.

But yeah, it's still a fair statement. He's been utterly useless. The cities have been doing decently though.

Hey, remember how I just helped my kid move five states? Guess who furloughs starting tomorrow.

For bonus fun? He's still registered as an employee in Texas -- he never officially started his new position in his new state. And his address is still Texas, because he hasn't changed it.

I have no idea where he should apply for unemployment legally.

What the fuck? Is that from wearing masks 24/7?

Down town Seattle is now starting to look like what it must be like before a hurricane arrives.

Seen three business that have their windows and doors boarded up with plywood.

He needs to call the DoL line for claimants, explain the situation, and see.  It does vary state by state.

In many/most states, a reduction in hours or furlough would qualify you to collect unemployment under normal circumstances.  Most states are loosening requirements now anyway.  He needs to find out when the DoL claimants line opens for business and call first thing.

In New York, if you leave a job for a new job and then are let go/furloughed from the new position, you would be eligible for benefits as you were a qualifying employee in New York within the last year and lost employment/hours through no fault of your own.  Benefits would be calculated based on your salary at your prior position.


Or, you know, if you had a regular accountant who handled your affairs this would be a great time to ask them to see what the best approach would be...

Can't confirm this is real or not, but a captivating read... in a horror-sense of the word at least:
https://imgur.com/gallery/fiZxBkt

Australia is still in a much better situation that pretty much everywhere else in the world.

And the kangaroo will once again rule the continent!

There seems to be a correlation between facist shitfuck governments and slow and uninformed response.  Or maybe it's just me.

I, for one, welcome our new marsupial overlords.

--Dave

Day 7 of the San Francisco Bay Area "shelter in place" order.

No, we are not.

We are doubling every 3 days.

The test results are 10 days behind the actual infection rate. So whatever you have test results for, because we are only testing people with direct contact or have been overseas and are visibly sick, you won't see them and get results for 10 days after they are infected.

We are now 8 days from when Italy's medical system was over taken and could not cope.


3 days after our medical system reaches capacity, you need to double it in size. The estimates are our ICU beds will hit that point around the 1st week of April. That's 2 weeks from now. Our muppet government is allowing 10's of 1000's of people to stand in lines outide centrelink offices and had no idea it would happen and made no plans for it that 1 million people would be out of work in the course of a week.

They are STILL not shutting everything down because they think there is an economy to save!

There is going to be no economy.

Scott Morrison is an incompetent leader who cannot deliver a clear consistent message to save his life. That's bad.

Australia's economy is going to get fucked. That's bad.

Here in Minnesota the governor has issued a two week shelter in place order starting Friday.  287 cases so far with 122 recovered. 26 hospitalized.  Still only one death.

Kind of curious to know how this is turning out in India.  I was half expecting the place to turn into "Zombie Apocalypse Land" if it got a hold over there, but news has been almost completely silent regarding the country.  Then again, it's India, so I wouldn't put it past being possible that people over there are dropping like flies, but because they are all dying in home instead of crushing their hospital system that it doesn't appear nearly as bad as it actually is.

Kind of curious to know how this is turning out in India.  I was half expecting the place to turn into "Zombie Apocalypse Land" if it got a hold over there, but news has been almost completely silent regarding the country.  Then again, it's India, so I wouldn't put it past being possible that people over there are dropping like flies, but because they are all dying in home instead of crushing their hospital system that it doesn't appear nearly as bad as it actually is.

Defense Minister Margarita Robles said the elderly residents were “completely left to fend for themselves, or even dead, in their beds.” She said the discovery over the weekend included several nursing homes but did not name them or say how many bodies were found.

Spanish Nursing Home Residents Found Living in Squalor Near Bodies of Suspected Coronavirus Victims (https://time.com/5809271/spanish-nursing-home-coronavirus-bodies/)

  :ye_gods:

This may or not be news,  but apparantly Iceland has been testing a lot of people there and half of the people who test positive has no symptoms at all.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

Angry Staffer
@AngrierWHStaff
·
1h
Cuomo called this “almost too good to be true”

If this trend continues, it will unequivocally prove the shelter in place method successful.

That’s still a shit ton of hospitalizations, but the more spread out they are, the better chance people have to live. That’s the goal.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUASim0XYAIzLT7?format=jpg&name=small)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUASim0XYAIzLT7?format=jpg&name=small (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUASim0XYAIzLT7?format=jpg&name=small)

There is still no concrete evidence that this virus is transmissible before symptoms (even the most mild) appear.

Date: March 16, 2020

Source: The University of Texas at Austin

Summary: Infectious disease researchers studying the novel coronavirus were able to identify how quickly the virus can spread, a factor that may help public health officials in their efforts at containment. They found that time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week and that more than 10 percent of patients are infected by somebody who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms.

They just implement a two week (?) shelter in place lockdown for the entire country.

Turns out chloroquine does fuck all (https://mobile.twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711).

Researcher who claimed it helped has about as reliable a record as the autism=vaccines guy. A correctly conducted Chinese study that showed chloroquine did nothing was ignored because this flawed western one said it worked.

Turns out chloroquine does fuck all (https://mobile.twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711).

Researcher who claimed it helped has about as reliable a record as the autism=vaccines guy. A correctly conducted Chinese study that showed chloroquine did nothing was ignored because this flawed western one said it worked.

wow one week

how benevolent

To be fair though the Chinese study only involved like 30 people or something.  I pretty much felt it was going to be bullshit from the get go anyway,Trump endorsing something is pretty much means there are only wishes instead of facts supporting it.  

I definitely feel like there are countries that are hiding the scale of their own outbreaks, and that's bad, because it's obscuring knowledge about the disease that the world desperately needs to have.

Without any way to actually back up this claim, I would go out on a limb and suggest this virus skews heavily towards infecting total cunts.  If for no other reason than they are more likely to ignore the rules and recommendations.  We'll see a few giant assholes die from this before all's said and done.

Which in no way is me saying that everyone that catches it falls into this category.

The statistics on this are not very good at telling the story of what's going on.  For example, It would be really helpful to know how many people who died had a pre-existing condition, were terminally ill, and what the age distribution is. A country with a more developled healthcare system will have more elderly people that are susceptible to Covid-19 than countries with a lower life expectancy. 

Yeah, you could wish there was an entire medical specialty dedicated to gathering, collating, and publishing that data....

Do some googling, I already did my homework, you can do your own.

--Dave

Yeah, you could wish there was an entire medical specialty dedicated to gathering, collating, and publishing that data....

Do some googling, I already did my homework, you can do your own.

--Dave

Stockholm (capital) is having an escalation of covid-19 cases in iva and as a result more deaths. With people getting their pay checks on wednesday you had restaurants and pubs filled to the brim with people in the wealthier parts. With easter about to happen those same people would go to the swedish ski resorts and you would get the same crisis as the bergamo/lombardy region in italy.

Its due to things like that why Sweden just made it illegal for public gatherings of more than 50 people. My work place is doomed but honestly given that the owner is the same kind of person that don't give a shit about the human cost to get profits its probably for the best. The shithead pushed 700 people into the night club when the limit was 500 two weeks ago.

 No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.

Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
·
16h
This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care #coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

Though thank god for things like Tabletopia and Discord.

Hey all, long time. Figured I'd drop in and make sure everyone here is doing okay.

I'm fortunate to have moved out to the boonies (Vancouver Island) at the start of the year, and we're pretty isolated from it here. Still have cases in our town, but the total cases on the Island is under 100.

Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.

The situation in France with Raoult Didier and his Chloroquine experiments has gotten weirder and weirder.

He is now essentially saying that of course his first early paper was flawed, but that the emergency circumstances don't leave time to do rigorous science.

He then came out with a new set of data using 80 patients in which his treatment resulted in 80% of the cases resolving without severe symptoms.

...which, if you've been paying attention, is the rate at which untreated cases resolve without severe symptoms.

This branch of the news just keeps getting weirder.

Soln, I'd suggest not running out into the sticks if you can avoid it unless you've got a significant enough stockpile to really shelter in place for about three months. When the peaks hit the hinterlands, there will be absolutely nowhere to go and the other city folk running out there for "safety" will overflow an already razor-thin safety net.

Simon Harris to meet officials to bring new measures to tackle Covid-19 in nursing homes

30 March 2020

The Health Minister will meet top officials today to arrange for new measures to tackle Covid-19 in nursing homes.

There are now 17 clusters of the coronavirus in nursing homes across the state.

Simon Harris says he is very worried about the prevalence of the illness among older people.

“I am concerned to see a significant amount of infection now breaking out in a number of nursing homes,” said Mr Harris.

“We’ll be meeting with the nursing home sector and also, and very importantly, the Chief Medical Officer is having a number of meetings in advance of the National Public Health Emergency Team meeting on Tuesday.

“And I expect you’re going to see a number of measures aimed at minding and protecting those who are in our nursing homes and also other long term residential facilities.

“And also our staff how work there.”

Yesterday it was announced that 10 more people in Ireland had died after contracting Covid-19.

It brings he death toll since the beginning of the outbreak to 46.

There have also been 200 new confirmed cases of the virus in the country – bringing the total to 2,615.

The NSW Public Health (COVID-19 Restrictions on Gathering and Movement Order 2020) makes it unlawful to leave your place of residence except "to obtain food or other goods and services", work and education that cannot be done from home, exercise, medical or caring reasons, and a limited number of other reasons.

It also bans gatherings of more than two people in public places, unless those people are members of the same household, or the gatherings are "essential for work or education". Unlike the order in Victoria, the NSW order does not appear to explicitly ban gatherings in people's residences.

Under the Public Health Act, individuals can be fined up to $11,000 or sent to prison for six months - or both - for breaching these ministerial directives. They can also be fined another $5500 for each day the offence continues.

Corporations that fail to comply are liable for a $55,000 initial fine and $27,500 for each day the offence continues.

A total of 16 "excuses" for leaving the home are contained in Schedule 1 of the order, including to attend weddings and funerals, which are limited to five and 10 people respectively. Other "excuses" include moving house, donating blood, undertaking legal obligations and accessing public services such as Centrelink and domestic violence services.

Furthermore, contact between parents and children or siblings who do not live together will also be regarded as a reasonable excuse. Priests and other ministers will still be allowed to go to their place of worship or provide pastoral care.

The order specifically states: "Taking a holiday in a regional area is not a reasonable excuse." It was signed by NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard late on Monday night.

My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  :oh_i_see: Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  :uhrr:

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:

(https://i.imgur.com/PrJJ23a.png)

Where is the army and/or the police with batons bashing the hell out of those people ?

My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  :oh_i_see: Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  :uhrr:

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:

(https://i.imgur.com/PrJJ23a.png)

Man, there's always one black guy in there to fuck up the curve for the rest of us.

Excellent illustrative back-of-a-napkin calculations and animations from math youtuber 3blue1Brown. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs)

Gives easy-to-visualize examples of what different prevention measures would look like, and what results they might have.

Work has officially extended the work from home period to May 4th.

So working from home is nice enough. I got out of the shower and went to the bedroom to put my clothes on, grabbed my sweatpants and looked over at the wife and said, "Putting on the uniform." Haven't heard her laugh like that in awhile.

I'm also getting to know all her co-workers thru just overhearing all her meetings. Dunno if I can take having two groups of office people in my house all the time.

What's the thinking about a 2 week timer for yourself?  I mean....it is more about what is happening out there, right?  You could successfully lock yourself in for 2 weeks, but then what?

Maybe he means not spreading it if he's infected but asymptotic?

I've gotta say if it's the latter... going out for any reason that's not an emergency is pretty shitty to do to everyone you came into contact with...

Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to 5G.

So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.

You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave

You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave

In 'just how stupid would you have to be' news...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358


I'm genuinely unsure if I have less respect for the idiots torching phone masts or the idiots putting quote marks around the work baseless.

I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

Regardless, I live in a state where the Governor thinks we're unique and we don't need a shelter in place order.  S

COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

New twist to being the facilitator, shopper, and all-around point man for two households: my ankle. As in, I twisted it yesterday.

It was beautiful out, so I very carefully (nursing my persistent shoulder injury). Was just going to move 2-3 wheelbarrowfulls of split wood from the front yard to the back yard. Very first load, twisted my ankle (uneven ground because of skunk overpopulation, they dig the shit out of the yard). I swear the tree is cursed (my shoulder injury and almost losing 3 fingers, exacerbated my previous ankle injury on the OTHER ankle, now this).

I put this wonderful little tale in this thread because it kinda fucked us as far as dealing with the day-to-day of the current situation. Good times.

My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole HydroxychloroquineTrump presidency thing is a pump-n-dump scheme  :awesome_for_real:

Recent numbers have drastically dropped the expected numbers of deaths relative to prior data from the same models.  The inclusion of information from Spain and Italy (instead of relying heavily on China data) have had some dramatic effect.s   We'll see if that holds true.  US projected dead (by August 1) are at a little over 80K.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) 

We shall see....

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Running at 2000/day at the moment in the US and rising. Looks much worse than that figure.

They think we're a few days away from the peak and then due to decline (across the US)

Not to mention that the terminally ill get inclucded in the numbers.  You can have a BMI of 55, have Stage IV cancer with 2 weeks to live, and if you catch Covid-19 and die you get picked up in the numbers.  

My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole Hydroxychloroquine thing is a pump-n-dump scheme  :awesome_for_real:

Far fewer heart attack cases in ERs, far fewer stroke cases in ERs.

When all this is said and done it will be interesting to see the final statistics and see how close the modelers were to the actual numbers.

I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

Tell this dipshit he has to do all his client's business taxes for the past 10 years, but the only books he can use are from January 2019 and they are just a stack of crumpled up receipts that smell like beer and vomit. Also, if he gets even one cent wrong on the return, the IRS will arrest him, sentence him to death by hanging and carry out the sentence slowly over 10-14 days while he dangles over an open flame.

If he doesn't get it then, just cough on him and move on with your life.

So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

weird head

Or chicken pox that comes back to shingles.

There are 9 women in my little town sewing masks for Nurses on a voluntary basis. I went up on Tuesday to donate a couple of cotton Duvet covers, and they game me a free green fashion mask. Its pretty cool. Of course I should have made a photo to accompany this. Anyway it beats the shit out of a surgical mask.

Ive had the problem with both a cloth one without and an N95 with a metal tab. Just can't get them to fit right. I'm either a dope or have a weird head.

My mom has been cranking those out.  I ordered her some patterned fabric to make masks for the owners of my local pub (they're big Trek fans).

Is this going to be one of those things where people get pimped out masks and then get sad that they don't really have a reason to use them once we get past the virus?  Are we going to end up with masks being fashionable?

So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

Honestly?  If I didn’t need to wear glasses half the time I’d get a pimped out steampunk plague doctor mask  :oh_i_see:

Bird mask or GTFO: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07B2HYJ7K

So angry it wasn't this: https://www.amazon.com/CreepyParty-Novelty-Halloween-Costume-Pigeon/dp/B010BRP7I6

Been interesting working from home due to Covid-19. I am seeing things in my neighborhood that I normally wouldn't see. Like almost all my neighbors have yard services that take care of things and they don't even mow their lawns. Or like today a migrating bee swarm taking a pit stop in my yard before moving on in a few hours. Walking out my back door reminded me of a bad horror movie with all the buzzing. I called a local beekeeper but the bees flew off 15 minutes before he got here. He estimated that the swarm was somewhere around 15 to 20 thousand bees.

Just checked Ireland's graph on the Worldometer. It's depressing. 444 deaths, 12547 cases. Per capita we are actually worse than the USA right now, at least officially. We ARE better on per capita testing however, wnich counts for a lot, but we are still not great even on that.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

The Austrian numbers are besically the same, but we are used to being marginalized in comparasation to Germany, so I don't personally hate you for that wrong comment, eldaec ;)

Ireland’s total cases to date per capita is already substantially higher than Germany’s (almost 2x) and basically at Italy-levels right now so that’s not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

...
Yeah well Norway, Iceland and Finland are all doing better than you and Germany so there’s that too :awesome_for_real:

Finland, in particular, is doing amazingly well as Finland has a devastatingly gorgeous Prime Minister. 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVqG-CjVAAABMsK.jpg)

Finland, in particular, is doing amazingly well as Finland has a devastatingly gorgeous Prime Minister. 

The projections in the US that I have been following are suddenly more optimistic.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We'll see.

… and Silicon Valley. We just make technology.  Who needs math. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html)

Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.

The KCDC has re-investigated three cases from the same family where patients tested positive after recovering, Kwon says.

In each of these cases, scientists tried to incubate the virus but weren't able to -- that told them there was no live virus present.
Like many countries, South Korea uses a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for the virus. The RT-PCR test works by finding evidence of a virus's genetic information -- or RNA -- in a sample taken from the patient.
According to Kwon, these tests may still be picking up parts of the RNA even after the person has recovered because the tests are so sensitive.

I did.  Mostly about the lack of testing, honestly.  However, the two key words jumped out: "Incremental steps"

Texas will keep expanding action until they see the resurgence.

Plus if you get tested positive there is jack shit they can do about it.

I've been in the same position for the last couple of weeks, but then last few of days suddenly much worse, and my son suddenly had cough day 1, fever day 2, and now apparently fine. So... maybe... no clue really.

Some positive news on the re-infection reporting

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

Mild symptoms are indistinguishable from a regular cold though, so... I guess we know nothing.

Summary by Bill Gates of the vaccine development process and how it might play out for the COVID-19 vaccines:

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine

There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.

There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.

More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.

Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold

Epidemiological studies suggest that HCoVs account for 15 to 30% of common colds

Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.

More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.

Placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir has shown a modest benefit. Trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.

Summary: median recovery time for those receiving drug was 11 days vs 15 days on placebo. Lower mortality rate was reported as well for remdesivir group but apparently that was not statistically significant. As is now typical regarding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 studies these results haven't been peer-reviewed yet.

NIAID annoncement:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html

Just as long as it isn't regular Nyqil which contains dextromethorphan  (https://www.kqed.org/science/1963298/common-ingredient-in-common-cough-medicine-might-promote-coronavirus-study-finds)

“Sorting all that out, obviously, would be important,” he said. “But I just cannot imagine that this has a real impact on patients taking Robitussin.”

One of the researchers who worked on that does regular Instagram stories on stuff (@gutterkingbaby) and is well worth a follow. Hell might be worth creating an instagram account. She made the point that this whole study was funded by the NIH and if it shows positive outcomes keep a close on eye on Gilead's pricing for Remdesivir because they saved a ton of R&D costs not having to run the trial themselves and had the whole process massively streamlined for them by the US government.

Absolutely surreal video of an empty Seattle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qm9QZ_RzZc&feature=youtu.be

Of course they filmed early in the day to minimize traffic and people out an about. However, Seattle is the first city I lived in where there's *always* people out. This is just odd looking.

Saw this on SA:

"Colorado man who organized Anti-Quarantine/Open Carry Rally in Denver get's yelled at by his mom on live stream."

Mom yells at around 19:26.

https://youtu.be/XcGzVnUyegA?t=1148

Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

This thing can turn fast on you, so don't hesitate to call a doctor of you feel worse.

I'd guess the counterargument is that normal vitamin D levels in gen pop are presumably an indicator that someone is outside seeing the sun a normal amount and therefore likely to be generally healthy?

(http://flatbeat.net/stuff/butsweden.png)

Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

We are doing similar for renting apartments. Folks don't even get to see the actual apartment outside of a youtube video prior to signing the lease. It's wild - we're moving folks into our buildings without ever meeting them. I just did a lease entirely through email, never even spoke to the person.

Get tested.  If you think you have it, get tested.  Period.  If not for you, for other people.  It adds to the statistics and lets you tell people with certainty that they've been near someone that had it.

All this assumes you can get tested.  There are still some places where that is problematic.

Mask characteristics. Varying degrees of mask effectiveness are modelled by the mask transmission rate T and mask absorption rate A, which denote the proportion of viruses that are stopped by the mask during exhaling (transmission) versus inhaling (absorption), respectively. We set T = 0.7 and A = 0.7 to model the use of inexpensive, widely available, and even nonmedical or homemade masks with only 70% effectiveness for universal masking, and not higher quality N95, N99, N100, FFP1, FFP2, or FFP3 masks which in many regions need to be reserved for medical staff.