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Author Topic: Coronavirus / COVID-19  (Read 250997 times)
Brolan
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Reply #385 on: March 28, 2020, 10:52:44 AM

Here in Minnesota we now have 5 dead and 441 known infected.  30 cases in the hospital. 

The first 4 dead were all in their 80s, 3 of those from nursing homes.  The latest death is not documented yet.
schild
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Reply #386 on: March 28, 2020, 11:05:09 AM

that tweet

 No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

Quote
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
·
16h
This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care #coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.

step 0 is having a test that gives answers fast enough to isolate

steps 1 through 300 rely on the administration and red state governments not being mega retarded

step 0 is actually the easy one here
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #387 on: March 28, 2020, 11:15:33 AM


 No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.


https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

Quote
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
·
16h
This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care #coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.

If they work like any other virus quick test they’re pretty much useless. Flu quick tests have a horrible detection percentage of less than 30 percent in some cases.

That’s why everyone is doing PCR testing right now.

If it works it would be awesome but this sounds to good to be true. Like Theranos
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #388 on: March 28, 2020, 11:34:08 AM

I’m always very “encouraged” when I google shit like this and all I get is PR bullshit or “this could revolutionize X” fluff pieces and “Held in high regard by clinical professionals for their accuracy” copy.

Molecular quick tests seem to be rather reliable though at least on par with current COVID tests so about 90% accuracy. It also seems that the tests are about three to five times more expensive, the machines are also very expensive to buy and operate, the test is very susceptible to mishandling and operator error and it’s also always running on a vendor proprietary platform. Like Abbott’s IDNow platform of which this mobile testing unit is just one element.

Sounds very expensive/lucrative. And also something most labs/hospitals or patients won’t be able to even afford.

Also FDA didn’t license this test. It’s pretty much only legal because of an emergency order by the FDA.

„ The ID NOW COVID-19 EUA has not been FDA cleared or approved. It has been authorized by the FDA under an emergency use authorization for use by authorized laboratories and patient care settings. The test has been authorized only for the detection of nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2, not for any other viruses or pathogens, and is only authorized for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostic tests for detection and/or diagnosis of COVID-19 under Section 564(b)(1) of the Act, 21 U.S.C. § 360bbb-3(b)(1), unless the authorization is terminated or revoked sooner.“
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #389 on: March 28, 2020, 11:35:23 AM

The cynic in me sees this as yet another way of profiteering from a global crisis with help from the Trump administration. I hope I’m wrong though
jgsugden
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Reply #390 on: March 28, 2020, 01:19:39 PM

The way I see this: The longterm strategy is flatten the curve, isolate the most vulnerable until they can trust a vaccine, and put the people back to work when the total impact of shutting down the economy (not just the economic cost, but the lives lost due to isolation, lost health care, medical treatments uavailable due to an overly taxed health system, etc...) outwieghs the risks to those that have not had it yet in the eyes of decision makers. 

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Surlyboi
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eat a bag of dicks


Reply #391 on: March 28, 2020, 01:37:45 PM

That assumes that the decision makers are rational and motivated by something other than greed, power or racial resentment.

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
Goumindong
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Reply #392 on: March 28, 2020, 01:52:25 PM

How does it produce a positive result in 5 minutes and negative in 13?
01101010
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You call it an accident. I call it justice.


Reply #393 on: March 28, 2020, 02:18:48 PM

I assume you would see some kind of growth starting at 5 minutes up to 13 minutes. After 13 minutes I would guess if nothing happens, then it would be neg.

Does any one know where the love of God goes...When the waves turn the minutes to hours? -G. Lightfoot
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #394 on: March 28, 2020, 08:06:11 PM

Hey all, long time. Figured I'd drop in and make sure everyone here is doing okay.

I'm fortunate to have moved out to the boonies (Vancouver Island) at the start of the year, and we're pretty isolated from it here. Still have cases in our town, but the total cases on the Island is under 100.

I'd started working at Home Depot, figuring it would be something to keep me busy while hunting for a "real" job. All of a sudden went from a part time gig, to being given all the hours I am willing to work, plus hazard bonuses, because apparently gardening and home repair is an essential service, and since half of the staff at Home Depot is over 60, most of them are staying home.

And no - we do not have any disinfectant wipes or toilet paper in stock.

Stay safe, and don't go stir crazy. Take it from someone who was pretty much a self imposed hermit for some time - its survivable. Though thank god for things like Tabletopia and Discord.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
schild
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Reply #395 on: March 28, 2020, 08:08:35 PM

Though thank god for things like Tabletopia and Discord.


you're never logged into the discord server you punk
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #396 on: March 28, 2020, 08:10:24 PM

I'll be around. Schedule is starting to settle.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
Gimfain
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Reply #397 on: March 28, 2020, 09:27:11 PM

since the swedish curve means we are fucked the link below shows the curve of how many people in sweden that have been put into intensive care each day due to the corona outbreak. It didn't look like I would have expected.
Link

In sweden we have a state epidemiologist in the government agency for public health that speaks every day about the crisis, our elected officials mostly focus on putting new rules in place. I suppose its different from everyone else that have their elected officials that know absolutely nothing on the subject to speak about what to do.


When you ask for a miracle, you have to be prepared to believe in it or you'll miss it when it comes
Soln
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the opportunity for evil is just delicious


Reply #398 on: March 28, 2020, 10:23:39 PM

Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.
jgsugden
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Reply #399 on: March 29, 2020, 06:59:00 AM

Hey all, long time. Figured I'd drop in and make sure everyone here is doing okay.

I'm fortunate to have moved out to the boonies (Vancouver Island) at the start of the year, and we're pretty isolated from it here. Still have cases in our town, but the total cases on the Island is under 100.
Total positive case was under 100.  Given what they've discovered about how many people show little or no symptoms (sometimes, ever - sometimes, for the first few weeks og being contagious).  Most of the medical guidance tells people with minor symptoms not to get tested - to just assume you have it.  Unfortunately, most people are assholes and are going out with minor coughs, etc...  And then when you factor in all the people showing no symptoms... 

The numbers I try to find and look at are: How many tests were given in an area, and how many of those were positive.  If the percentage of positive tests/total tests given rise on a day to day basis, it is expansively loose in the community and should not be considered contained.  If there are a decent number of tests given and a decrease or flat rate of positive cases, the situation is not showing signs of getting worse - although the precentage of positive cases obviously matter - you're only in good shape if the number of positive tests per day stays low.   Unfortunately, the number of tests given in an area is becoming increasingly hard data to find.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #400 on: March 29, 2020, 02:45:20 PM

Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #401 on: March 29, 2020, 02:47:53 PM

I've been estimating how bad it is here from first hand firehall info. There's only been a handful of cases requiring ambulance response in the area so far.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
Lucas
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Further proof that Italians have suspect taste in games.


Reply #402 on: March 29, 2020, 02:50:20 PM

Encouraging data here in Italy: curve percentage today was at +5,64% (more or less the same number of swabs of the last few days), definitely a downward trend in the last 5-6 days (from 13%, to 8, 7, again 8, then 6 and today 5). Yesterday it was a record day for recovered people (+1434 I think), still too many deaths, albeit less. Trend is definitely going down in Lombardy too.

It's not only a metric given by general stats, but evidence coming from E.R. (less calls, less ambulances going out) and also ICU patients are growing at a much slower rate (while a portion of those go back to a regular hospital section).

Just to give you an idea of the longevity we're talking about, in my hometown  7 people lost their life today, unfortunately: a 103 years old woman (yep, you read that right; btw, a 102 yrs old woman made the news a couple days ago because she recovered), a 77 years old woman, then five men: 97 years old, 96, 95, 82, 60 (dunno if this one had any pre-existing conditions)
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 02:52:12 PM by Lucas »

" He's so impatient, it's like watching a teenager fuck a glorious older woman." - Ironwood on J.J. Abrams
Salamok
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Reply #403 on: March 29, 2020, 04:47:58 PM

I want the test the UK company is working on that is cheap, can be done at home and tells you if you've already had corona.  If you test positive for that stay home for a few symptom free weeks then operate under the assumption you wont get the same strain again and unquarantine yourself.  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 04:49:54 PM by Salamok »
Surlyboi
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eat a bag of dicks


Reply #404 on: March 29, 2020, 05:33:44 PM

Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.

Soln, I'd suggest not running out into the sticks if you can avoid it unless you've got a significant enough stockpile to really shelter in place for about three months. When the peaks hit the hinterlands, there will be absolutely nowhere to go and the other city folk running out there for "safety" will overflow an already razor-thin safety net.

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
Sir T
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Reply #405 on: March 29, 2020, 07:08:19 PM

From another forum

Quote
The situation in France with Raoult Didier and his Chloroquine experiments has gotten weirder and weirder.

He is now essentially saying that of course his first early paper was flawed, but that the emergency circumstances don't leave time to do rigorous science.

He then came out with a new set of data using 80 patients in which his treatment resulted in 80% of the cases resolving without severe symptoms.

...which, if you've been paying attention, is the rate at which untreated cases resolve without severe symptoms.

This branch of the news just keeps getting weirder.

Hic sunt dracones.
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #406 on: March 29, 2020, 07:59:58 PM

Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.

Soln, I'd suggest not running out into the sticks if you can avoid it unless you've got a significant enough stockpile to really shelter in place for about three months. When the peaks hit the hinterlands, there will be absolutely nowhere to go and the other city folk running out there for "safety" will overflow an already razor-thin safety net.

Yeah, that's kind of my advantage here - my parents are semi-hoarders. We've got enough food here to last 6 months.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
Sir T
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Reply #407 on: March 30, 2020, 02:51:28 AM

Irish report.

https://beat102103.com/covid-19/simon-harris-to-meet-officials-to-bring-new-measures-to-tackle-covid-19-in-nursing-homes/
Quote
Simon Harris to meet officials to bring new measures to tackle Covid-19 in nursing homes

30 March 2020

The Health Minister will meet top officials today to arrange for new measures to tackle Covid-19 in nursing homes.

There are now 17 clusters of the coronavirus in nursing homes across the state.

Simon Harris says he is very worried about the prevalence of the illness among older people.

“I am concerned to see a significant amount of infection now breaking out in a number of nursing homes,” said Mr Harris.

“We’ll be meeting with the nursing home sector and also, and very importantly, the Chief Medical Officer is having a number of meetings in advance of the National Public Health Emergency Team meeting on Tuesday.

“And I expect you’re going to see a number of measures aimed at minding and protecting those who are in our nursing homes and also other long term residential facilities.

“And also our staff how work there.”

Yesterday it was announced that 10 more people in Ireland had died after contracting Covid-19.

It brings he death toll since the beginning of the outbreak to 46.

There have also been 200 new confirmed cases of the virus in the country – bringing the total to 2,615.

Hic sunt dracones.
Lucas
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Further proof that Italians have suspect taste in games.


Reply #408 on: March 30, 2020, 02:48:58 PM

A "good" day in Italy, with a few caveats:

- highest count of recovered people in a single day: 1590
- still a high count of deaths: 812

The daily curve of new cases for today was at a new low: +4,1% BUT.... a significant lower amount (nationwide) of swabs results came in compared to the previous 3-4 days, so experts are eagerly awaiting for the next 2-3 days to confirm the downward trend.

What is truly a relevant and notable piece of data (if/when authorities start giving it out), especially when you need to start confirming that a downward trend might be ongoing (so, unfortunately, that is not the case for the U.S., for now) ,
is daily ambulance interventions for Covid-19 related issues.

For example, in Bergamo, which has been the most dramatic epicenter for the last few weeks, interventions in the last couple days were halved compared to the "peak" of a week and half ago.

In my hometown of Modena, there was a peak on the 20th March with 74 daily ambulance calls; yesterday there were "only" 36.

Btw, yes, there still might be "lucky" and "unlucky" days with spikes; now, I don't have graphs available, but authorities confirmed that those daily interventions are less and less frequent as days go by, lately.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 02:52:21 PM by Lucas »

" He's so impatient, it's like watching a teenager fuck a glorious older woman." - Ironwood on J.J. Abrams
Sky
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Reply #409 on: March 30, 2020, 03:09:41 PM

When I was wondering when our 'military trucks lined up for corpse removal' moment would come? Imminent in NYC. Earlier today they were interviewing a dude at a morgue in the city that is now overflowing into a refrigerated trailer parked in the back. I guess it's a more efficient setup? Ready to cart away and bring in the next one(s).
Bunk
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Operating Thetan One


Reply #410 on: March 30, 2020, 04:21:09 PM

We're well prepared here in Canada. We have plenty of skating and curling rinks.

I apologize if gallows humor offends, but I find it kind of necessary.

"Welcome to the internet, pussy." - VDL
"I have retard strength." - Schild
jgsugden
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Reply #411 on: March 30, 2020, 05:26:55 PM

For a local perspective for those in the US.

State by State Projections of how unprepared your state is...

Relatively speaking, if these projections are close to correct, South Carolina does not look too bad relative to other states.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Tale
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sıɥʇ ǝʞıן sʞןɐʇ


Reply #412 on: March 30, 2020, 06:18:32 PM

New laws in my Australian state (New South Wales): Six months in jail and $11,000 fine for leaving your home without a reasonable excuse.

My employer has been deemed an essential service. Apparently we're getting new white passes that say essential worker in case we need to go to the office, but most of us are already working from home anyway.

Quote
The NSW Public Health (COVID-19 Restrictions on Gathering and Movement Order 2020) makes it unlawful to leave your place of residence except "to obtain food or other goods and services", work and education that cannot be done from home, exercise, medical or caring reasons, and a limited number of other reasons.

It also bans gatherings of more than two people in public places, unless those people are members of the same household, or the gatherings are "essential for work or education". Unlike the order in Victoria, the NSW order does not appear to explicitly ban gatherings in people's residences.

Under the Public Health Act, individuals can be fined up to $11,000 or sent to prison for six months - or both - for breaching these ministerial directives. They can also be fined another $5500 for each day the offence continues.

Corporations that fail to comply are liable for a $55,000 initial fine and $27,500 for each day the offence continues.

A total of 16 "excuses" for leaving the home are contained in Schedule 1 of the order, including to attend weddings and funerals, which are limited to five and 10 people respectively. Other "excuses" include moving house, donating blood, undertaking legal obligations and accessing public services such as Centrelink and domestic violence services.

Furthermore, contact between parents and children or siblings who do not live together will also be regarded as a reasonable excuse. Priests and other ministers will still be allowed to go to their place of worship or provide pastoral care.

The order specifically states: "Taking a holiday in a regional area is not a reasonable excuse." It was signed by NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard late on Monday night.
pxib
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Reply #413 on: March 31, 2020, 12:05:27 AM

Excellent illustrative back-of-a-napkin calculations and animations from math youtuber 3blue1Brown.

Gives easy-to-visualize examples of what different prevention measures would look like, and what results they might have.

if at last you do succeed, never try again
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


Reply #414 on: March 31, 2020, 05:23:36 AM

My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  Ohhhhh, I see. Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  swamp poop

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:

« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 05:38:09 AM by Sky »
Lucas
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Further proof that Italians have suspect taste in games.


Reply #415 on: March 31, 2020, 06:22:31 AM

My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  Ohhhhh, I see. Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  swamp poop

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:



Where is the army and/or the police with batons bashing the hell out of those people ?

" He's so impatient, it's like watching a teenager fuck a glorious older woman." - Ironwood on J.J. Abrams
Phildo
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Reply #416 on: March 31, 2020, 06:38:08 AM

Trying not to catch a disease from them.
01101010
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You call it an accident. I call it justice.


Reply #417 on: March 31, 2020, 07:16:29 AM

Maybe they just want to be the first passengers.

Does any one know where the love of God goes...When the waves turn the minutes to hours? -G. Lightfoot
Chimpy
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Reply #418 on: March 31, 2020, 07:39:22 AM

Where is the army and/or the police with batons bashing the hell out of those people ?

Too busy looking for people with less pasty white skin tones to hassle. I wish I was joking.

'Reality' is the only word in the language that should always be used in quotes.
Surlyboi
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Posts: 10962

eat a bag of dicks


Reply #419 on: March 31, 2020, 05:48:10 PM

My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  Ohhhhh, I see. Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  swamp poop

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:



Man, there's always one black guy in there to fuck up the curve for the rest of us.

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
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