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Author Topic: Coronavirus / COVID-19  (Read 251016 times)
Abagadro
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Possibly the only user with more posts in the Den than PC/Console Gaming.


Reply #175 on: March 18, 2020, 12:26:57 AM

Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
lamaros
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Posts: 8021


Reply #176 on: March 18, 2020, 12:43:06 AM

I'm moving home in two weeks, so I've put off buying stuff for the last month. Hopefully the hoarders will be done by then.
Trippy
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Posts: 23612


Reply #177 on: March 18, 2020, 12:48:45 AM

Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.
I thought everybody in Utah keeps at least a year's worth of food and essentials stockpiled. Okay, maybe that's just the Mormons, but they should have plenty to share with the non-Mormons right? awesome, for real
Surlyboi
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eat a bag of dicks


Reply #178 on: March 18, 2020, 01:03:08 AM

Mnuchin apparently told a bunch of GOP asshats in a call yesterday that he expects unemployment to hit at least 20%.

Unless trump suddenly becomes a socialist, he's probably fucked. Then again, Americans are stupid, so hey..

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
Abagadro
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Posts: 12227

Possibly the only user with more posts in the Den than PC/Console Gaming.


Reply #179 on: March 18, 2020, 01:26:57 AM

Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.
I thought everybody in Utah keeps at least a year's worth of food and essentials stockpiled. Okay, maybe that's just the Mormons, but they should have plenty to share with the non-Mormons right? awesome, for real


Ah yes, the ValPak storage food bought 15 years ago that is expired sitting on the metal shelves down in the basement.  My best/weirdest memory is a literal 55 gallon drum of just raw wheat or corn kernels (can't remember which) that my mom had back in the day. I mean, WTF were we going to do with 50 gallons of raw whatever that probably had all sorts of weevils and shit in there.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
Cyrrex
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Posts: 10603


Reply #180 on: March 18, 2020, 01:28:17 AM

Mnuchin apparently told a bunch of GOP asshats in a call yesterday that he expects unemployment to hit at least 20%.

Unless trump suddenly becomes a socialist, he's probably fucked. Then again, Americans are stupid, so hey..


I just assume at this point that he will use foreign interference, Covid-19 or any other excuse he can to either contest the results of the election and/or find a way to postpone it indefinitely.  Declare a further emergency, institute martial law, and then take his chances that the system will not be able to stop him.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
Cyrrex
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Reply #181 on: March 18, 2020, 02:43:15 AM

Simple tip seen on Facebook.  I only have a small bottle of hand sanitzer, and it seems at least for a while that one will need such a thing on hand for the next several months any time forced to interact with the public.  Of course, it is sold out everywhere I look.

But what isn't sold out?  Isopropyl alcohol and Aloe Vera.  I guess you just make a 2 to 1 mixture, and BAM, there's your sanitizer.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
lamaros
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Reply #182 on: March 18, 2020, 02:58:34 AM

I still don't get the hand sanitiser thing. Is water that scarce you can't wash your hands? Sanitiser isn't as effective, and is gross.
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #183 on: March 18, 2020, 04:17:27 AM

The WHO has an official recipe for hand sanitizer.
https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf

It’s basically isopropyl alcohol or ethanol, water, hydrogen peroxide and glycerol.

Good luck getting your hands on alcohol though over here isopropyl alcohol and ethanol are sold out.
Cyrrex
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Reply #184 on: March 18, 2020, 04:32:15 AM

I still don't get the hand sanitiser thing. Is water that scarce you can't wash your hands? Sanitiser isn't as effective, and is gross.

I mostly agree, but I guess the theory is that you have it with you on the go.  Clean your hands with it before you do your business in public, clean your hands after.  You can't bring soap and water with you.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
Jeff Kelly
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Posts: 6921

I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #185 on: March 18, 2020, 04:36:48 AM

One week of hand washing and my dry psoriasis skin is completely fucked. Dry and cracked open everywhere and it itches like hell.

Gone through balf a bottle of special neurodermitis/psoriasis skin care cream already.
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


Reply #186 on: March 18, 2020, 05:51:11 AM

Since I'm still working with a half dozen people, it's for the times between hand-washing. Every time I touch anything that's not on my desk or under my direct control (my coat, etc), I've been religiously using hand sanitizer for 2 weeks now. The old lady was already a hand sanitizer nutjob, so we have a stash. But I'm much more of a hand washer, I've always been since my days in food service. Doing food prep, we always had a sanitary hand and a contaminated hand (I call it a chicken hand). My left hand to hold meat, right holds the knife, does the seasoning, opens ovens, etc. Left hand only touches the chicken. Once I move to another prep item, hands washed. Great discipline already built in. And working in warehouses conditioned me to keep the skin moisturized, boxes are hell on your hands, cardboard sucks all the moisture out.

So I guess I've been preparing for this with all the shitty jobs I've done in life!

Also, the irony is sinking in that the ONE person around here who would be happy as hell to board up the doors for a couple months and not come out is one of a handful that have to report to the building. The fiancee actually asked if she could still come in for half her shift. I did not punch her right in the face, but it took restraint :p
jgsugden
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Reply #187 on: March 18, 2020, 06:50:49 AM

Regarding the length of this thing: It is the right decision, but we are intentionally prolonging it.  That is the plan.  We should understand what is going on.  The best available option, in the eyes of the professionals focused on beating this thing, is to extend the economic and social pain.  I don't disagree, but we need to understand that this is the plan.

Social distancing is being done to slow this thing down.  There are no illusions that everyone will hide away and this thing will die off.  It'll stay active somewhere and come back if we exit hiding.  The idea is to slow it down so that our healthcare resources can handle it ... which is still a hard thing as the major impact spikes occur in most countries when it gets into a retirement area and suddenly impacts more people in an area than they have resources to address it. 

Stopping this thing requires one of three things: 1,) Everyone to have had it, 2.) Everyone to have had it or be vaccinated, or 3.) Enough people to be in camps 1 and 2 that it can't find carriers and dies off.  If we were closer to 1 and 2, social distancing worldwide might get us to a solution, but just one asshole who thinks they know better can restart the cycle again if few people have this thing.  We need enough people to be immune that the assholes don't find carriers to spread it.


2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Khaldun
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Posts: 15157


Reply #188 on: March 18, 2020, 07:01:03 AM

It's not going to die off, any more than H1N1 died off. H1N1 is still around. It's going to become endemic to early 21st Century humanity. But basically that means the same thing: most people will have been infected by it, the vast majority asymptomatically, and any new cases past a certain point of herd immunity will be uncommon enough that they can be handled the same way we handle someone who comes in with pneumonia. The only goal right now is to space out the rate of growth. If everything in the US and elsewhere was business as usual, we'd probably end up with 2 million dead, most of them because there was no possible medical intervention--and of course lots of other people who did not have COVID-19 would die because there were no ICU beds or resources for them--auto accidents, industrial accidents, heart attacks, poisonings, you name it. And if the thought was "well, at least the economy would be normal", that too would be wrong. If we ended up with 2 million dead, most of them elderly, in a six month period, that would be its own source of panic and severe financial disruption. Imagine the real estate market everywhere where the elderly were the primary owners or renters and then imagine a sudden wave of sales by heirs.

There's no way out of this without damage to something. I fear the US with its present leadership is going to split the difference and not do enough to blunt the spread while doing enough to tank the economy.
Sir T
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Reply #189 on: March 18, 2020, 07:57:03 AM

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Quote
Jeremy C. Young
@jeremycyoung
Profile picture
16 hours ago, 21 tweets, 4 min read

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end

Hic sunt dracones.
Sky
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Reply #190 on: March 18, 2020, 08:57:36 AM

So a train is on a track, 5 workers ahead and you can switch tracks to kill 1 worker on a side spur...

Given how prolonged and damaging this is going to be to the global economy, I can't help but think maybe it would be less damaging to the other 7 billion people on the planet to let the thing run it's course.

But a primary human trait (that has limited our progress greatly) is selfishness. I prefer isolation and curve-flattening because we both have senior parents we are concerned for and are personally not in too much jeopardy of real hardship, though the likelihood is there for years of really bad times around the world as decades of globalizations now bites us hard.

On the other hand, a second primary human trait is stupidity (statistically speaking), so the teeming hordes of {dumb shit deniers/kids/religious zealots/whatever rationalization for ignoring science} will likely mean millions will die anyway and we will still go through a long period of social, economic, and personal hardships.

On the third hand, how many will die due to the hardships? How can we recover from a 20% unemployment rate? It will destroy the already precarious house of cards built by the finance world and politicians where massive debt is the norm, what happens when credit is no longer any good and 20% of the population (in the US, let alone other economies) has no income and can't access credit (directly or via the government borrowing money to give them)?

Just putting it out there as a thought experiment, not actually advocating for the deaths of millions. But if we just said 'fuck it, everyone go back to work', we could avoid the impending global financial catastrophe that will affect 99.9% of the humans on the planets. So should billions suffer to save millions?
01101010
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You call it an accident. I call it justice.


Reply #191 on: March 18, 2020, 09:10:58 AM

So a train is on a track, 5 workers ahead and you can switch tracks to kill 1 worker on a side spur...

Given how prolonged and damaging this is going to be to the global economy, I can't help but think maybe it would be less damaging to the other 7 billion people on the planet to let the thing run it's course.

But a primary human trait (that has limited our progress greatly) is selfishness. I prefer isolation and curve-flattening because we both have senior parents we are concerned for and are personally not in too much jeopardy of real hardship, though the likelihood is there for years of really bad times around the world as decades of globalizations now bites us hard.

On the other hand, a second primary human trait is stupidity (statistically speaking), so the teeming hordes of {dumb shit deniers/kids/religious zealots/whatever rationalization for ignoring science} will likely mean millions will die anyway and we will still go through a long period of social, economic, and personal hardships.

On the third hand, how many will die due to the hardships? How can we recover from a 20% unemployment rate? It will destroy the already precarious house of cards built by the finance world and politicians where massive debt is the norm, what happens when credit is no longer any good and 20% of the population (in the US, let alone other economies) has no income and can't access credit (directly or via the government borrowing money to give them)?

Just putting it out there as a thought experiment, not actually advocating for the deaths of millions. But if we just said 'fuck it, everyone go back to work', we could avoid the impending global financial catastrophe that will affect 99.9% of the humans on the planets. So should billions suffer to save millions?
 

The needs of the many...

Does any one know where the love of God goes...When the waves turn the minutes to hours? -G. Lightfoot
Cyrrex
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Reply #192 on: March 18, 2020, 09:19:50 AM

You aren't alone in thinking these things.  In my less charitable moments, I think that maybe there is a higher power out there, or simply mother nature trying to correct a few things:

-The plague of the Boomers
-Climate change
-Ridiculous over population
-The continued raping of Earth's resources
-Wealth and power distribution

....and so on.  A ravaging on a global scale might be just what planet earth needs.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
Hammond
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Reply #193 on: March 18, 2020, 09:25:45 AM

So there was a earthquake in the Salt Lake City Utah area today....
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #194 on: March 18, 2020, 09:48:43 AM

You won’t prevent a economic meltdown with the let all of them die at once approach.

Millions will be sick at home, there will be mass panic in a country with more guns than people. Society will completely break down for weeks as no one will be able to do any essential work to keep everything going.

It’s the difference between levels of fuckedness. Neither of the solutions will make it so we’re fine
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #195 on: March 18, 2020, 09:50:29 AM

You all assume that people who are gravely ill or fear they might die just wander calmly and silently into the night to die with the least amount of bother possible and that everything will go back to normal after.
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


Reply #196 on: March 18, 2020, 10:00:24 AM

The sick will recover before we have a vaccine. Millions out of work for a few weeks is different than millions (and possibly billions) out of work for a year and a half.

I never said we're fine. The one worker on the spur track is not fine, and his buddies who survive aren't either.

I don't think you're picturing the long view of shutting almost everything down. We can weather a brief interruption to global production. We cannot weather a prolonged one.
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #197 on: March 18, 2020, 10:08:52 AM

Black Friday 1929 was a brief interruption to global production and the economy that shaped nearly two decades of world history and it took years to recover from it.

It was also not 4 million people dead and several more people gravely ill type of interruption.
Brolan
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Reply #198 on: March 18, 2020, 10:25:05 AM

Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 10:27:04 AM by Brolan »
Lucas
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Further proof that Italians have suspect taste in games.


Reply #199 on: March 18, 2020, 10:31:36 AM

Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

No.

" He's so impatient, it's like watching a teenager fuck a glorious older woman." - Ironwood on J.J. Abrams
Cyrrex
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Reply #200 on: March 18, 2020, 10:38:36 AM

Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

You have to remember you are looking back in time.  It’s what was being done wrong a few weeks ago.  Like, I don’t know, everywhere else in the world that is not SK or China.  Italy is just in the front of the curve.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
Lucas
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Further proof that Italians have suspect taste in games.


Reply #201 on: March 18, 2020, 10:42:47 AM

Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

You have to remember you are looking back in time.  It’s what was being done wrong a few weeks ago.  Like, I don’t know, everywhere else in the world that is not SK or China.  Italy is just in the front of the curve.

Exactly; it was largely anticipated that, at least for Italy, these would have been among the hardest 10-15 days, and it's proving to be so. There are spikes from day to day, both in deaths (unfortunately) like today, but also for recovered people, infact today was a "good" day on that front ( +1084, +37% compared to yesterday)

" He's so impatient, it's like watching a teenager fuck a glorious older woman." - Ironwood on J.J. Abrams
schild
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WWW
Reply #202 on: March 18, 2020, 11:03:15 AM

Deaths.... free up beds.
Brolan
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Reply #203 on: March 18, 2020, 11:07:39 AM

Not really as they are just wheeling the high-risk people to a room to die in.
schild
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WWW
Reply #204 on: March 18, 2020, 11:09:08 AM

this is also true
Sir T
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Reply #205 on: March 18, 2020, 02:09:58 PM

They can just wheel in trolleys. Hell shopping trolleys will do, right?

Hic sunt dracones.
schild
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WWW
Reply #206 on: March 18, 2020, 03:04:53 PM

Flabbergasted an we haven't been taking over Ikea warehouses if we're being honest.
Khaldun
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Reply #207 on: March 18, 2020, 03:34:49 PM

I'm gonna say that I have specific reasons why you shouldn't trust the Twitter guy linked above. Not a bot, nothing of the kind, but definitely a guy who likes to stir up shit via social media.
Lucas
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Posts: 3298

Further proof that Italians have suspect taste in games.


Reply #208 on: March 18, 2020, 05:23:36 PM

The following image comes from Bergamo, in the Lombardy region here in Italy.  Bergamo and Brescia are cities that are paying the highest price right now; ICUs are completely full, as well as hospital beds. Hospital personnel is exhausted.


And there is no more space in the crematorium and mortuaries.

Army vehicles are waiting outside the cementery, to bring bodies to other regions so that they can burn them. The first group of coffins will arrive right here in my hometown of Modena.





Stay at home.




" He's so impatient, it's like watching a teenager fuck a glorious older woman." - Ironwood on J.J. Abrams
Goumindong
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Posts: 4297


Reply #209 on: March 18, 2020, 09:07:03 PM

Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.

probably has more to do with co-variation between desert climates and Iran/Eqypt
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