MLB 2012

[ghost]

Yes, but you know those factors will play a role in the decision making process, Ingmar, whether you want them to or not.


Addendum-  and, unsurprisingly, Bobby Valentine was fired. 

[Paelos]

And I don't want to get into how pointless RBIs are as a measure of a player's success. There are about 23 other things you can look at that will give you a better grasp at how good a player is. RBIs mostly measure how good the players ahead of you are at getting on base.

I still don't understand why you believe this. Is baseball played in some kind of bizarre vacuum where RISP stats don't matter?

[Ingmar]

Yes? Nobody has the magical power to suddenly hit better when runners are in scoring position.

Put it this way. Hunter Pence had 104 RBI this season. He did this while probably not being one of the 50 best hitters in the big leagues. That is why RBIs are useless for evaluating players.

[WayAbvPar]

BAwRISP has no predictive value, it is essentially random. Good hitters who hit behind other good hitters will get a lot of RBIs. Guys who hit with the bases empty all the time won't. It has nothing to do with the batter.

[Paelos]

Yes, they do magically have the power to hit better with RISP. You're assuming that players are robots and will statistically end up the same over time, and that pressure of the situation has no effect. That's dumb. Adrian Gonzalez hit .392 with RISP and had 108 RBIs. He was hitting .299 overall. You're telling me that I'd rather have Prince Fielder because he has a better overall average, more homers, and some weird thing called WAR? In the end, you're defining them based on some sort of weird "Runs Created" stat that counts walks and getting plunked and all that other ridiculous Sabermetric crap.

[Ingmar]

Yes, they do magically have the power to hit better with RISP. You're assuming that players are robots and will statistically end up the same over time, and that pressure of the situation has no effect. That's dumb. Adrian Gonzalez hit .392 with RISP and had 108 RBIs. He was hitting .299 overall. You're telling me that I'd rather have Prince Fielder because he has a better overall average, more homers, and some weird thing called WAR? In the end, you're defining them based on some sort of weird "Runs Created" stat that counts walks and getting plunked and all that other ridiculous Sabermetric crap.

I think it's funny you're putting these two out here as your examples given the results of the teams that employed them.  

If you have a player who 'hits better under pressure' then what you actually have is a player who is dogging it the rest of the time, IMO. But there really aren't any players like that*. Do that "analysis" for Adrian Gonzalez's whole career and see if it holds up. (Also note, batting average is a really volatile stat and using it in small sample sizes to determine anything is crazy.)

*I do believe the opposite is probably true; there IS a 'choke factor'.

[Paelos]

My point is that no matter how much math you crank on it, I've yet to hear how it suddenly makes a team better than just watching a team's pitching, situational hitting, and payroll.

[ghost]

Baseball nerd fights make me laugh.  All of you know that none of that shit will come into play when the voting happens. 

[Ingmar]

They pay more and more attention to this kind of analysis every year, though. There's no way Felix Hernandez wins the Cy Young with a 13-12 record 20 years ago.

[ghost]

And there's no way he should win it with a 13-12 record any year.  That's ridiculous. 

[Ingmar]

 

[Paelos]

Soon...

[ghost]

I understand it's cool to glom on to the fancier statistics.  13-12 is bullshit.  Sorry.

[Rasix]

He controls his run support. Don't be this stupid.

[Ingmar]

I understand it's cool to glom on to the fancier statistics.  13-12 is bullshit.  Sorry.

What's the #1 requirement to get a win in baseball? Scoring runs. You can't win scoring 0 runs. Guess what's the only thing on the scoreboard an AL pitcher can't affect?

Blaming a pitcher for 'losses' when he goes 7-8 innings and allows one run (which King Felix has had happen to him many times in his fine career) is like blaming a quarterback for his defense giving up an 80 yard pass. It's utter nonsense. I guess he should have planned better and been drafted by a team with an offense?

EDIT: I can kind of understand skepticism about WAR and stuff, it isn't transparent how they get to the final number and all - but with pitcher wins it isn't like they're using some kind of tricky derived stat to throw those out, they're just looking at ERA and Ks and walks and hits and such instead.

[JWIV]

I understand it's cool to glom on to the fancier statistics.  13-12 is bullshit.  Sorry.

What's the #1 requirement to get a win in baseball? Scoring runs. You can't win scoring 0 runs. Guess what's the only thing on the scoreboard an AL pitcher can't affect?

Blaming a pitcher for 'losses' when he goes 7-8 innings and allows one run (which King Felix has had happen to him many times in his fine career) is like blaming a quarterback for his defense giving up an 80 yard pass. It's utter nonsense. I guess he should have planned better and been drafted by a team with an offense?

This may be an outlier, but you just described Jeremy Guthrie's 2011 season with the Orioles.   He ended the season just under 20 loses.  The biggest problem for most of the season though was a combo of infield errors (it's why I do not fucking understand even a little why Reynolds got the nod to start 3rd base this season - he's near gold glove at first, but is usually good for almost an error a game at third) and complete lack of run support.  Where run support could be defined as just score at least one run. 

From an article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/mel_antonen/08/31/jeremy.guthrie/index.html#ixzz28S6D3sc3)

Guthrie is an example of why pitchers shouldn't be judged solely on their won-loss record. In April, he had a 2.53 ERA, but was 1-3. The next month, he had a 3.77 ERA and was 1-4.
He had six shutout innings vs. the Boston Red Sox and wound up with a no-decision. He gave up two runs in seven innings to the Minnesota Twins and wound up with the loss. He lost a complete-game shutout to Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson. He allowed three runs in eighth innings against the Seattle Mariners only to lose.

Also, if we're doing playoff pics, I adore the cover the local paper did today in their special Orioles section

[Ingmar]

Jayson Stark picked the Giants to win the WS, which means we'll lose in 3 to the Reds.

[Paelos]

I'm getting ready to crawl into a hole all weekend with an Enya record and some muscle relaxers. Holy fuck Braves.

[Ingmar]

Can an entire team get the yips?

[Paelos]

HOLY SHIT HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU CALL AN INFIELD FLY IN FUCKING LEFT FIELD YOU FUCKING IDIOTS

[caladein]

Robot umps now, robot umps forever.

[Paelos]

That right there is a great example of why a one game playoff doesn't work.

One bad call and your season is over. No chance to bounce back next game, no chance to get out of it. What a fucking sham. Bud Selig can once again suck my balls.

[Raging Turtle]

Braves beat themselves but yeah the one game format is terrible.

Also GO CARDS 

[Trippy]

It was the correct call (*poke* *poke*) though it is admittedly a judgement call. It's really the "infielder fly" rule not the "infield fly" rule.

Rule 2.00 (Infield Fly) Comment: On the infield fly rule the umpire is to rule whether the ball could ordinarily have been handled by an infielder— not by some arbitrary limitation such as the grass, or the base lines. The umpire must rule also that a ball is an infield fly, even if handled by an outfielder, if, in the umpire’s judgment, the ball could have been as easily handled by an infielder. The infield fly is in no sense to be considered an appeal play. The umpire’s judgment must govern, and the decision should be made immediately.

Also:

[Paelos]

It wasn't the right call at all. 1 - There is no way that's a ball ordinarily handled by an infielder 20 yards in the outfield. 2 - The call wasn't made immediately. It was made when the ball was a second and a half from hitting the turf.

[JWIV]

The infield fly was bullshit and holy shit am I drunk right now.

[Teleku]

Well at least Baltimore saved Texas the embarrassment of losing another world series.   

[Paelos]

Go Orioles. Outside of that, I want to watch the baseball world burn this year.

[Teleku]

Such anger!

[JWIV]

Okay, no more fucking 9th inning meltdowns.  I want to use these things next week!

Orioles AL Championship Series Home Game 1
Oriole Park At Camden Yards, Baltimore,  MD
Tue, Oct 16, 2012
   
Ticket Information
Section 336
Row 21
Seats 13 - 16
Description
UPPER RESERVED
BEHIND HOME PLATE

[Teleku]

Yeesh, rough start for the Bay Area.

[Slayerik]

FYI, the WAR "stat" can suck it. It's a comparison between that player and a fictitional AAA player that would be called up...Who comes up with this shit? Who Trout really replaced was a pretty good player, if I'm not mistaken. Tons of props to Trout for an amazing rookie season. He's got a lot of years to win a lot of MVPS.

Just not this year. This year it goes to the vet Triple Crown winner.

Chicago imploded, and I loved every minute of it. I agree the Tigers are in a soft division, and had a cake home stretch...but I had been following them through all the series before that. Pulled off big sweeps and series wins when they needed to, against those same solid AL squads. I'm not scared of a Detroit/Yankees matchup at all, DET has great starting pitching and will expose the Yanks for what they are. The team that could have exposed the Tigers weaknesses the worst have already been eliminated....Ze Rangers.

I never expected any team to play worse team D then us, but the A's have.

Anyway, go tigers. Sweep em tonight, cause these fuckers are scary at home and in most close games.

[Ingmar]

Even if you stick to traditional stats, Trout had a better season than Cabrera on a team that won more games in a tougher division.

[ghost]

Even if you stick to traditional stats, Trout had a better season than Cabrera on a team that won more games in a tougher division.

I don't see how that's possible, considering Cabrera won the triple crown. 

[Paelos]

Because Sabermetrics lives in a vacuum.