MLB 2012

[Ingmar]

They're a little worse than a regular out, sure. On the other hand, it is pretty hard to start a double play by striking out.

The question is, is a guy striking out because he's just swinging at everything, or because he takes a lot of pitches (necessary to draw a lot of walks). The former is clearly bad, the latter is usually not a bad thing.

EDIT: And yes, that's sort of what walk/K rate describes, except I'd rather just look at the raw walk total. A guy who strikes out 120 times vs. 60 walks is way more valuable than a guy who only strikes out 60 times but draws 30 walks (assuming similar PA totals). The walks are what really matter.

[Paelos]

Raw walks ignores the plate discipline factor that K/BB rate gives you when evaluating a player.

Plus, and here's the kicker when I'm evaluating a player at any position, you have to look at their ranking in categories compared to the rest of the league.

In the case of Soto, he struck out the most of any catcher in the NL for 2011. The worst part is it wasn't a close race, as only two catchers in the majors had over 100 K's on the year, him and John Buck out of Florida. Compare that to a catcher that made the playoffs like Arizona's Montero, who struck out 99 times, but had the walks and RBI's to back it up.

[Ingmar]

You said RBIs; your argument is invalid.  

More seriously, the only real difference between Montero and Soto last year is Montero was luckier on balls in play falling for hits. Soto drew slightly more walks per appearance than Montero did, hit more home runs per appearance, etc.

[Paelos]

You said RBIs; your argument is invalid.  

More seriously, the only real difference between Montero and Soto last year is Montero was luckier on balls in play falling for hits. Soto drew slightly more walks per appearance than Montero did, hit more home runs per appearance, etc.

Luckier in balls falling for hits???

 

[Ingmar]

You may not be ready yet to join the inner circle and embrace BABIP. 

[Paelos]

I will fully admit that I think most of Sabermetrics is happy horseshit.

Also I still believe in RBIs.

[Ingmar]

Basically the gist is a hitter has very little actual control over what happens to a ball once it is in play (if it stays in the park). So if you for example see some dude hit .280, .275, then suddenly spike up to .320 one year odds are he didn't actually do much different, he just got luckier with where the balls were landing, and he's likely to regress back to something more like his normal numbers the next season. You can often predict this by looking at a hitter's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which you can find pretty much anywhere that lists advanced batting stats (baseball-reference for example.)

[Paelos]

I understand the principle behind their analysis, but I also believe that anyone who understands that balls in play is important would also DESPISE strikeouts like I do.

[Ingmar]

I think it is just more an acceptance that a particular type of hitter - high walk, high power, basically the most generally desirable sort of hitter overall - is just naturally going to strike out a lot, and that is OK. If you look at the top 50 for career strikeouts, it is loaded with great hitters.

[Paelos]

I think it is just more an acceptance that a particular type of hitter - high walk, high power, basically the most generally desirable sort of hitter overall - is just naturally going to strike out a lot, and that is OK. If you look at the top 50 for career strikeouts, it is loaded with great hitters.

Oh well yeah if you produce. But then we're back to the RBI stuff again.

[Ingmar]

No, bad monkey. RBIs happen when the guy in front of you produces. Weak grounders to first and deep flies that score people are not 'producing' no matter how much Skip Caray drools over it.

====

In other news, I am reasonably happy with the Giants 25 man roster, although we have to carry 12 pitchers to accomodate the 2 inning starts we're going to get from Zito. 

But Belt is starting at 1B in the bigs, and we didn't put EITHER of our crap hitting catcher options on the 25, instead opting to let Hector Sanchez play, so I am pretty pleased. Gregor Blanco will take Angel Pagan's CF job by June, and I hope Aubrey Huff isn't too completely embarrassing as the starting LF.

[Paelos]

No, bad monkey. RBIs happen when the guy in front of you produces. Weak grounders to first and deep flies that score people are not 'producing' no matter how much Skip Caray drools over it.

So you only produce if you put the ball in play, but you don't produce if you get unlucky, but you are producing if you get lucky by putting it play even if nobody is on base, but you aren't producing based on average, but you are producing...

You know what, it's just easier not to bother with this nonsense. I want guys with good OBP in the 1-2 slot, guys with good RBIs in the 3 and 4 slot, contact guys in the 5-6 slot, and guys who don't rap into double plays in the 7-8 slot.

[caladein]

RBI, just like Wins and ERA, are dependent on context.  A hitter with good offensive guys in front of him will get a lot of RBI.  The same hitter on a team with crappy players in front of him will get lot fewer RBI.  Luck is another layer of context which is why stats like BABIP and HR/FB are important.

We want to understand a player's true talent level when evaluating them which means stripping out context-sensitive information where possible and contextualizing it when we can't.  Signing a free agent pitcher doesn't bring their amazing defense or cavernous park with them, just like signing a hitter doesn't bring the rest of the lineup with them.

[Paelos]

See, my problem is I don't want the best talent. I want the best situational hitter.

[JWIV]

I suppose I should come up with something to be optimistic for the O's this season, but since our free agent moves were cheap castoffs from other teams (and the occasional getting banned from South Korea because our front office is run by someone who hasn't been in baseball for a decade), not a whole lot to be optimistic about - hell, .500 even looks pretty difficult to reach right now with this team.

[Paelos]

Isn't Yahoo running a story about the O's getting beat by a community college team?

[JWIV]

Isn't Yahoo running a story about the O's getting beat by a community college team?

Yep. Going to be a great season.   

[HaemishM]

not a whole lot to be optimistic about - hell, .500 even looks pretty difficult to reach right now with this team.

.500 is wildly optimistic for the Orioles. The team is that bad.

[JWIV]

not a whole lot to be optimistic about - hell, .500 even looks pretty difficult to reach right now with this team.

.500 is wildly optimistic for the Orioles. The team is that bad.

It really is.  Sad thing is that I know I'm going to still go to a few games this season and I'll be watching tomorrow afternoon from home.

[01101010]

It really is.  Sad thing is that I know I'm going to still go to a few games this season and I'll be watching tomorrow afternoon from home.

You actually go to baseball games to watch baseball? 

[Paelos]

That's not sad. I did the same thing with the Braves in the late 80s. We didn't have a winning season from 1984-1990.

Granted your problem is your ownership doesn't care and you're in the toughest division in baseball.

[Slayerik]

Just curious, what do you guys think of the Tigers this year? I hear a lot of biased opinion being from the Detroit area...I am thinking a strong run, personally!

[HaemishM]

Since the rest of the AL Central is kind of a shambles, it's Detroit's division to lose. They certainly have the best team on paper, most hitting, most pitching and unlike last year, they actually have an exciting team. Whether they can stand up to the Rangers/Rays/Yankees/Red Sox/Angels, who knows?

[Paelos]

Just curious, what do you guys think of the Tigers this year? I hear a lot of biased opinion being from the Detroit area...I am thinking a strong run, personally!

I'm not sure I love the Prince Fielder acquisition, but we'll see. The White Sox are pretty much standing pat in the offseason, so I don't think they are a threat. I like what Cleveland has been doing by picking up Sizemore and Kotchman to fill some gaps, so I think they are honestly going to be the main contender for Detroit this year. If I'm ranking their chances, I'd say:

Detroit 90-95 wins
Cleveland 86-91 wins
Sox 80-85 wins
Twins 78-83 wins
KC 65-70 wins

[JWIV]

In other exciting news, there's apparently a bit of protest going on since there's Opening Day games on Good Friday.  The upside though is we get awesome bits like this -

According to the Bible, Jesus spends six hours on the cross from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Jake Arrieta’s first pitch is scheduled for 3:05 p.m.

http://northbaltimore.patch.com/articles/archdiocese-unhappy-about-good-friday-baseball

[Ingmar]

Tigers are on my short list of World Series contenders.

[Paelos]

My Braves are still swining wet noodles over 4 months later.

I still hate Jason Heyward's guts. 

[caladein]

Tigers are on my short list of World Series contenders.

And my short list for most hilarious infield defense blooper videos.

[Ingmar]

A couple things I've read have expressed surprise at Cabrera not being *completely* hopeless at 3B in the spring!

[caladein]

Well, his first highlight of the season could have been much worse, so there's that.

[Paelos]

Well, his first highlight of the season could have been much worse, so there's that.

"Not often you get a standing ovation for catching a popup." 

[HaemishM]

Wow, the Cubs blew their first game in true Cub fashion. Score 1 run, find your 8th inning setup guy completely unable to get 1 GODDAMN OUT before the tying run scores, ruining your Opening Day starter's 7.2 innings shutout before losing it with your closer in the ninth.

Going to be a long goddamn year.

[Teleku]

I lol'd:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2125901/The-worst-baseball-cards-history.html

[Ingmar]

Minton and Henke look like dorks in all their cards, really. I'm surprised they left off Vance Law for the dorky glasses trifecta.

[01101010]

Wow, the Cubs blew their first game in true Cub fashion. Score 1 run, find your 8th inning setup guy completely unable to get 1 GODDAMN OUT before the tying run scores, ruining your Opening Day starter's 7.2 innings shutout before losing it with your closer in the ninth.

Going to be a long goddamn year.

*ahem*

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/gameflash/2012/04/05/40489_recap.html?sct=hp_t2_a13&eref=sihp