Another One Bites the Dust: SWG Edition!

[eldaec]

AFAIK sustained subs levels went something like...

EQ in the region of 400k
UO just under 200k
SWG a bit over 200k
EVE around 350k

I guess I just can't visualize the SOE committee which green lighted the project based on that kind of projection, including licence and probably the largest budget ever bar WoW and SWTOR.

Maybe I have bad data.

Someone should free SirBruce (never free SirBruce)

[Lantyssa]

I still can't give over the sheer shit-stupid that must have been floating around LucasArts and SOE to decide they could jump from a steady, mature game of 100k subs or so to one of millions -- in six damn months.

Only correction:  I'm pretty sure is was north of 200k subs at the time of the NGE.  So it was doubly stupid.

[Surlyboi]

It was. 200k+ around then. I remember some WoWtard crowing about the numbers in comparison to his "awesome game" just before the NGE.

Fuck that guy then and fuck him more now.

[UnSub]

I think it was Rubenfield who indicated that around the time of the NGE SWG was at 200k players.

If I remember correctly, somewhere around 10k a month. LOSING 10,000
subs a month.
Note – I think our subs were closer to 160-180 than 200k. It was a bad financial situation no matter how you look at it.

That 200k figure is also repeated in another article that looked at the NGE shortly after it happened.

From SOE's perspective, they'd launched what should have been the next big success but ended up with something that did okay but wasn't a break-out hit. Then suddenly found themselves being lapped by a first time entrant out of the gate. I don't think you can ignore WoW if you think that SOE went from being the top Western MMO developer to an extremely distant second very quickly.

It might not be believable now that SOE thought the CU / NGE would bring them in a million players in six months, but at the time WoW showed it was doable. History shows it was a bad plan, but it didn't look that way in 2005.

[Ratman_tf]

I think it was Rubenfield who indicated that around the time of the NGE SWG was at 200k players.

If I remember correctly, somewhere around 10k a month. LOSING 10,000
subs a month.
Note – I think our subs were closer to 160-180 than 200k. It was a bad financial situation no matter how you look at it.

That 200k figure is also repeated in another article that looked at the NGE shortly after it happened.

From SOE's perspective, they'd launched what should have been the next big success but ended up with something that did okay but wasn't a break-out hit. Then suddenly found themselves being lapped by a first time entrant out of the gate. I don't think you can ignore WoW if you think that SOE went from being the top Western MMO developer to an extremely distant second very quickly.

It might not be believable now that SOE thought the CU / NGE would bring them in a million players in six months, but at the time WoW showed it was doable. History shows it was a bad plan, but it didn't look that way in 2005.

The runaway hits Ultima Online and World of Warcraft, were utterly unpredicted by their companies. Everyone else who has planned for big success has had varying levels of failure achieving it.
I"m sure there's a lesson in there somewhere...

[eldaec]

From Unsub's link, because it is relevant to this 'was 200k a success for SOE despite the Star Wars licence and a ridiculous budget' question.

[In designing the NGE] we were given the directive to make Galaxies better.

Not just make Galaxies better, but make it succesful. Not the 200k
subs it had, but really succesful. The idea was that we had the most
valuable IP in the entire world, and we fucked it up to the point of
having 200k subs.

And yes, all 200k of you were important, but 200k means nothing in the
scheme of things.

And if they were losing 10k each month, looks like preNGE SWG would indeed have lasted about half as long as UO or EVE.

[Ratman_tf]

From Unsub's link, because it is relevant to this 'was 200k a success for SOE despite the Star Wars licence and a ridiculous budget' question.

[In designing the NGE] we were given the directive to make Galaxies better.

Not just make Galaxies better, but make it succesful. Not the 200k
subs it had, but really succesful. The idea was that we had the most
valuable IP in the entire world, and we fucked it up to the point of
having 200k subs.

And yes, all 200k of you were important, but 200k means nothing in the
scheme of things.

And if they were losing 10k each month, looks like preNGE SWG would indeed have lasted about half as long as UO or EVE.

But were they saying that because of WoW?  I doubt seriously the intent was to make SWG "better". 

[Lantyssa]

It's not surprising they were losing 10k subs a month given they kept changing focus every month instead of actually addressing the problem.  It was an organizational issue where they were making knee-jerk reactions.  Large companies can't do that.

[WindupAtheist]

If you think this is a fight, wait until UO closes.  (If it ever does.)

Nah. Sinij will run around and exclaim that it's all because they nerfed PK a hundred years ago or whatever and I'll call him a cumbucket, but other than that I doubt there'll be much controversy. UO did as well as any sane person could expect, and has been allowed to putter off peacefully into extreme old age. SWG, on the other hand, had unfulfilled potential and was cut down in it's prime by a series of the worst decisions in industry history.

James Dean dying in a wreck at age 24 is more fun to talk about than George Burns giving up the ghost at 100, basically. Besides, UO freeshards are so widespread and deeply established that anyone who gives a shit will still be able to play the game twenty years from now.

[Surlyboi]

James Dean dying in a wreck at age 24 is more fun to talk about than George Burns giving up the ghost at 100, basically. Besides, UO freeshards are so widespread and deeply established that anyone who gives a shit will still be able to play the game twenty years from now.

Out of the mouths of babes trolls.

[Lantyssa]

Reading that ancient blog Unsub posted reminded me of this Time article.

Too much focus on numbers, not enough on the product.  Though I think it applies to US industry in general, game companies seem to be some of the worst of the lot lately.

[Surlyboi]

You've heard me bitch about the general stupidity of corporate America in the politics thread countless times. It's what happens when you get a bunch of MBAs who know fuckall about how the real world works outside of the bullshit they half slept through in B-school and you let them loose with all the charts and research about quotas that they barely understand. All they saw was "WoW's got more subs, we need to do what they're doing and we'll get money hats too!", never comprehending what it was that made WoW what it was.

It's a fight I've had in two careers so far, and sadly it's looking like I might have to take up arms one more time.

And reading that article again to the end makes my above statement that much more ironic. Still give me hope though that I may actually win this time.

[Crumbs]

I think if we can bring this thread to 1k pages, we'll finally come to a universal agreement on whether or not SWG was good.  999 pages might do it.  998, definitely not.

[Paelos]

You've heard me bitch about the general stupidity of corporate America in the politics thread countless times. It's what happens when you get a bunch of MBAs who know fuckall about how the real world works outside of the bullshit they half slept through in B-school and you let them loose with all the charts and research about quotas that they barely understand. All they saw was "WoW's got more subs, we need to do what they're doing and we'll get money hats too!", never comprehending what it was that made WoW what it was.

That's why I always say you should promote accountants/accounting-backgrounds to positions of high authority. We know exactly how the world works. Not some pie in the sky BS about what should be happening.

[Simond]

If the 5 million or so Western MMO players existed before WoW came along, SWG failed much harder than anyone in this thread has stated.

Let me know when a MMO besides WoW breaks 1-2 million subs.

Okay.
Around ten million active users, somewhere over a million paying subscribers.

[Sheepherder]

Well like I said -- everyone but Blizzard is a fucking failure if that's your metric.

There you go.

[Ratman_tf]

If the 5 million or so Western MMO players existed before WoW came along, SWG failed much harder than anyone in this thread has stated.

Let me know when a MMO besides WoW breaks 1-2 million subs.

Okay.
Around ten million active users, somewhere over a million paying subscribers.

Excellent. That backs up my theory that there's about a million people willing to shell out cash to play a MMOG, and about 10 million who will play if it's WoW or if it's free. Yes, I modified my statement. 

[Ratman_tf]

Well like I said -- everyone but Blizzard is a fucking failure if that's your metric.

There you go.

And Blizzard is a fucking failure compared to the porn industry.

[Morat20]

Well like I said -- everyone but Blizzard is a fucking failure if that's your metric.

There you go.

And Blizzard is a fucking failure compared to the porn industry.

I dunno. Although Kink.com seems to be raking it in with their new pricing model. *scratches head*. I'm not sure how much torrents cut into their revenue stream, something Blizzard doesn't have to worry about. Then again, Kink.Com doesn't have to worry about Chinese gold farmers popping up and interrupting people's enjoyment either, so....call it a wash?

So, 200k subs and losing 10k a month to WoW. I wonder how EQ and EQ2 were doing at that point. I'm pretty sure EVE didn't have 350k subs at the time, since their peak concurrent user numbers were something like 12k or so at the time. CU and NGE gave them a big boost, and not long after was that big story about the corp infiltration -- the one that got mainstream press. They really started gaining players then.

*shrug*. If SOE or LA felt 200k sustained was a 'failure' than they're fucking morons. Then again, LucasArts has ALWAYS had a stupidly high opinion of their IP, despite the fact that 90% of everything they've spewed out with Star Wars on the cover has sucked balls.

[WindupAtheist]

What's all this "200k sustained" bullshit when we just read a developer saying "200, more like 160-180 maybe, and plummeting".

[Sheepherder]

*shrug*. If SOE or LA felt 200k sustained was a 'failure' than they're fucking morons. Then again, LucasArts has ALWAYS had a stupidly high opinion of their IP, despite the fact that 90% of everything they've spewed out with Star Wars on the cover has sucked balls.

They have a perfectly clear picture of how strong their IP is.  It's been selling terrible shit since the 1970's.

[Morat20]

What's all this "200k sustained" bullshit when we just read a developer saying "200, more like 160-180 maybe, and plummeting".

*shrug*. That was what they were at when WoW came out, apparently. I know for sure EVE wasn't at 350k 7 years ago, for one. I have no doubt they lost a ton of subs when WoW came out -- but I have no doubt so did EQ. Also, I take the "plummeting" with a grain of salt because I know that particular talking point surfaced during the CU as a justification for the changes. Considering the popuilation DID plummet from the CU and later the NGE, I can't help but wonder how no one noticed a "plumetting" population before hand when it was readily apparent afterwards.

I mean I think it's pretty obvioius. SWG came out. SWG didn't beat EQ. SOE was happy, because it was a lot of fucking money coming in a month, LucasArts blamed everyone except themselves that yet another Star Wars product only did "well" instead of eating the market and recreating the blockbuster feelings of 1977, and everyone was pretty fucking happy until WoW came out.

Then LucasArts foillowed Lucas' own directorial views, and decided to radically alter a product to try to capture a new audience, failed miserably, and saw the game collapse. Now years later, people claim the game was 'always' a failure because it didn't live up to LucasArt's own "Eighty three trillion sub" hype, which has never actually come true in the history of ever.

In real life, kit sold a million boxes, held hundreds of thousands of subs, and was the same size as all the other top-tier MMORPGS right up until WoW came out and the game fucked itself on purpose.

Like I said: "Doing as well as your biggest competitors" is a success. And frankly, I doubt either SOE or LucasArts was unhappy with SWG until WoW redefined everything -- because 200k was respectable numbers, a million boxes sold was respectable numbers -- remember this was years ago. 20k subs, or 100k boxes -- yeah, that'd be a fucking failure. But they were at 200k subs what, two or three years after launch? Plummeting or not, how many Western MMORPGs can claim that?

[UnSub]

Well like I said -- everyone but Blizzard is a fucking failure if that's your metric.

There you go.

And Blizzard is a fucking failure compared to the porn industry.

Possibly - the porn industry is a fucking success.

[Bloodgut]

Yes because the greatest idea in the world is to turn a Star Wars MMO into a place where the only working thing you can count on is to harvest bantha hides. Forget the epic battles, lightsabers and killing stormtroopers, lets learn to waste money on dance routines, or an emote for a jump because you can't actually jump over things.

SWG was the stupidest game to waste how many millions of dollars on a failed socail experiment that turned out to be what ended up to be Second Life. Sorry I don't see Raph as any kind of visionary or great game designer. I could ask my 7 year old nephew what makes SW awesome old and I have all I need to make the premise for a SW mmo.

[Ratman_tf]

Well like I said -- everyone but Blizzard is a fucking failure if that's your metric.

There you go.

And Blizzard is a fucking failure compared to the porn industry.

Possibly - the porn industry is a fucking success.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X_Ot0k4XJc

[Morat20]

Yes because the greatest idea in the world is to turn a Star Wars MMO into a place where the only working thing you can count on is to harvest bantha hides. Forget the epic battles, lightsabers and killing stormtroopers, lets learn to waste money on dance routines, or an emote for a jump because you can't actually jump over things.

SWG was the stupidest game to waste how many millions of dollars on a failed socail experiment that turned out to be what ended up to be Second Life. Sorry I don't see Raph as any kind of visionary or great game designer. I could ask my 7 year old nephew what makes SW awesome old and I have all I need to make the premise for a SW mmo.

If that was true, you'd think the list of "Good Star Wars Games" versus "Bad Star Wars Games" wouldn't be quite so imbalanced.

You know what the problem is with the Star Wars license? It poisons games. Half the fuckers writing Star Wars games treats it like some sort of magic ingrediant, that can be poured over utter shit to create gold. Half write solid games and have to listen to legioins of fanboys explain how their fucking wookies are the wrong color or something.

SWG is a case of fucking both. If it'd had been Generic Space MMORPG it would have been considered an absolute success. (It also probably would have launched at least six months later, but what can you say). After all, it sold a million boxes, had a sustained sub count up in the six figures, and a successful expansion or two. Because it was "Star Wars" it's got people screaming that it was the wrong sort of Star Wars (SimBeru! No Lightsabers! What shit is this?) and others screaming it had to be a failure because it didn't soar to 4 million subs and sell enough boxes to buy Norway.

*rolls eyes*. I blame Lucas himself. Hell, he turned the fucking movies into that kind of shit when he started retconning his own films.

[Slyfeind]

Let me know when a MMO besides WoW breaks 1-2 million subs.

Okay.
Around ten million active users, somewhere over a million paying subscribers.

Hrrmm. In order for Runescape to qualify as WoW expanding the MMO market, Runescape would have to be made up of people who started on WoW. I don't think that's the case. I haven't done any research on it, mind, but on a hunch I'd say I doubt it.

[Ratman_tf]

I could ask my 7 year old nephew what makes SW awesome old and I have all I need to make the premise for a SW mmo.

[Morat20]

I could ask my 7 year old nephew what makes SW awesome old and I have all I need to make the premise for a SW mmo.

Darth and Droid's explanation of Jar-Jar made a hell of a lot of sense.

[Tale]

Darth and Droid's explanation of Jar-Jar made a hell of a lot of sense.

As a player who liked SWG without much interest in the IP, I feel undermined when you casually reference Star Wars geekery as if everyone should know it.

[Morat20]

Darth and Droid's explanation of Jar-Jar made a hell of a lot of sense.

As a player who liked SWG without much interest in the IP, I feel undermined when you casually reference Star Wars geekery as if everyone should know it.

*grin* Read Darth and Droids. In case you feel too lazy to wade throiugh years of strips, it's basically "Star Wars" (starting with Episode One) as a comic strip (done as screencaps) wherein the actual "story" is a D&D game.

Among other things, the Jedi Knights are a house monk class, and they're using laser swords because they didn't have the money for laser polearms or laser crossbows. :P

And Jar-Jar -- Jar-Jar is what happens when you let your six-year-old niece make a character so she can play.

[5150]

You've heard me bitch about the general stupidity of corporate America in the politics thread countless times. It's what happens when you get a bunch of MBAs who know fuckall about how the real world works outside of the bullshit they half slept through in B-school and you let them loose with all the charts and research about quotas that they barely understand. All they saw was "WoW's got more subs, we need to do what they're doing and we'll get money hats too!", never comprehending what it was that made WoW what it was.

That's why I always say you should promote accountants/accounting-backgrounds to positions of high authority. We know exactly how the world works. Not some pie in the sky BS about what should be happening.

Just dont let them run I.T departments - seriously!

Yes because the greatest idea in the world is to turn a Star Wars MMO into a place where the only working thing you can count on is to harvest bantha hides. Forget the epic battles, lightsabers and killing stormtroopers, lets learn to waste money on dance routines, or an emote for a jump because you can't actually jump over things.

SWG was the stupidest game to waste how many millions of dollars on a failed socail experiment that turned out to be what ended up to be Second Life. Sorry I don't see Raph as any kind of visionary or great game designer. I could ask my 7 year old nephew what makes SW awesome old and I have all I need to make the premise for a SW mmo.

No, we'd all be playing Lego Clone Wars (don't get me wrong it's a fun game) or Clone Wars Adventures

[Velorath]

*grin* Read Darth and Droids.

That's some painfully unfunny stuff...

[Numtini]

I'll be honest, I loved SWG, but I keep hearing 200k+ and maybe they were paying and not playing, but the emptiness of the worlds sure didn't look like 200k+ to me past the first month.

[Lantyssa]

You know what the problem is with the Star Wars license? It poisons games. Half the fuckers writing Star Wars games treats it like some sort of magic ingrediant, that can be poured over utter shit to create gold. Half write solid games and have to listen to legioins of fanboys explain how their fucking wookies are the wrong color or something.

Two 'ee's in wookiee, dammit!

I'll be honest, I loved SWG, but I keep hearing 200k+ and maybe they were paying and not playing, but the emptiness of the worlds sure didn't look like 200k+ to me past the first month.

Twenty servers, ten huge worlds (each still larger than most entire game worlds combined), massive cities across several of those worlds, and outposts created by players before cities were even in.

Roughly averaging it out: 10k a server, 1k a planet, then 200 of those logged in at peak concurrency.  Players could very easily disappear from sight for weeks at a time if they really wanted.