Japan [Tag: Fucked]

[Sheepherder]

Your pressure numbers for the containment vessel seem off, though. As far as I know the coolant pressure in BWRs is maintained at 75 bar/1000psi/7.6MPa and it therefore reaches boiling point at roughly 280 °C, in PWR-designs it would be maintained at 150bar/16 MPa/2100 psi.

That's nothing a fire pump could handle even if it could handle the steam or the temperature without cavitation.

Assuming it's working, they have the technology to vent the pressure to within range for a fire pump.  I imagine they can also hook up to a standpipe system and run the sprinklers in the concrete containment.

[Murgos]

Radiation Map (Grateful if somebody explains the scale on this, cpm?)

As was said earlier if it's cpm there is no way to convert it unless you know how each instrument was calibrated.  However, in the side bar it mentions nano-Gray/hr thought it doesn't specifically say that the numbers on the chart are nano-Gray.  Nano-Gray is a fairly useless measurement.  First, to convert gray to sievert you need to know energy information on the particle in question which can vary widely.  Secondly nano = 1x10^-9 so even at a weighting factor of 1, it's pretty fricken small.

edit:  Also, the weighting factor is probably 1 but it really depends on a lot of things.

[Ghambit]

Seeing some calls from scientists to pre-position the Japanese air-force to use the "Chernobyl Option" since we're approaching the point of no return now at this plant.  This entails entombing all the reactors in sand and concrete from the air.

Latest is No. 3 is venting unknown steam uncontrolled and No. 2 is likely breached at the reactor; although this could still be a function of the broken suppression system (seems not to be linked though).  No. 4 is still smoking although the 2nd fire looks to be out.  NO workers are onscene as they devise/revise plans.  Since the rads from no. 3 are so high, they cant service any other parts of the plant either which puts the SFP's for no. 5 and no. 6 at risk.  Essentially a cascade failure due to clumping of reactors so close together.

(sigh)  So now even if they temporarily controlled the SFP issues, there's deeper concern over the physical reactors in no. 2 and 3 which would prevent any real progress in fighting the problem.
The info. is also getting more and more muddled since there's an effective blackout for the entire situation.

NHK has a chopper parked 30km from the plant taking pix and much of the plant now seems to be venting steam and/or smoking.

[Ghambit]

And now (likely due to power problems):

Radioactivity forecast system down

A computer system that forecasts the spread of radioactivity has not been working due to malfunctioning monitoring posts around a troubled nuclear power plant in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says it does not know when the system will be back in operation.

The system, called SPEEDI, predicts how radioactive substances will spread in case of radiation leakage from nuclear power plants, based on measurements taken at various locations, prevailing winds and other weather conditions.

SPEEDI data are intended to be used to draw up evacuation plans for residents around power plants in case of accidents.

Latest photo of No. 4 (hammered shit):

[MahrinSkel]

Have I mentioned how completely fucking worthless the cable news channels have been throughout this?  Not just being at least an hour behind what I could find out online, but just *completely* useless?

Anyway, the workers on-site were pulled out for a while, which was a very bad sign (you'd only do that if the toxicity or radiation had reached "Dead Right There" levels).  They're back in, with no explanation of why in either direction, but the cable news shows seemed to not even notice.

Headline News was the most disappointing.  It used to be that if something significant was happening, watching HLN would give you the latest information.  Instead, I found them showing Showbiz Tonight.  Gack.

--Dave

[Tale]

Have I mentioned how completely fucking worthless the cable news channels have been throughout this?  Not just being at least an hour behind what I could find out online, but just *completely* useless?

Anyway, the workers on-site were pulled out for a while, which was a very bad sign (you'd only do that if the toxicity or radiation had reached "Dead Right There" levels).  They're back in, with no explanation of why in either direction, but the cable news shows seemed to not even notice.

Headline News was the most disappointing.  It used to be that if something significant was happening, watching HLN would give you the latest information.  Instead, I found them showing Showbiz Tonight.  Gack.

That's pretty bad. I just came here hoping to explain why the news reports on the workers being pulled out were so confusing, expecting criticism of news organisations for that ... but yours haven't even got that far :)

The government spokesman said something to the effect that all workers had been pulled out, which triggered these reports. After everyone wrote and published stories on this, it turned out he meant the ones working outdoors had been told to go indoors. I think he's sleep deprived. It's been very hard to report accurately and confusing statements like this aren't helping!

[NiX]

Good source of news: NHK Live Stream

[Ghambit]

The workers were pulled out entirely, but the govt. just raised the legal limit of exposure so that they could go back in emergency situations... something like 250 mSv I believe.  This is when I believe some workers went back in for short periods, voluntarily.

Anyways yah, if you dont watch NHK you're essentially misinformed.

[Tale]

The workers were pulled out entirely, but the govt. just raised the legal limit of exposure so that they could go back in emergency situations... something like 250 mSv I believe.  This is when I believe some workers went back in for short periods, voluntarily.

Anyways yah, if you dont watch NHK you're essentially misinformed.

You're talking about the last few days (when they raised the legal limit so 50 workers could stay). I'm talking about the last half hour.

[Ghambit]

The workers were pulled out entirely, but the govt. just raised the legal limit of exposure so that they could go back in emergency situations... something like 250 mSv I believe.  This is when I believe some workers went back in for short periods, voluntarily.

Anyways yah, if you dont watch NHK you're essentially misinformed.

You're talking about the last few days (when they raised the legal limit so 50 workers could stay). I'm talking about the last half hour.

No, the report I got (from NHK) was also a few hours ago.  The limit was raised today (wednesday).
As of the cab. secy. last press conference (also a few hours ago) workers were not allowed at the plant at all.  He wasnt vague at all, he was pretty specific.  Even specifically saying they dont have any real-time info. from the reactors due to the lack of people on hand.  All they could do was measure rad levels remotely.

Where are you getting info. to the contrary?  Anyways, it matters not.  Standing in a bunkered control room wont solve the problem.  They have to be able to go outside.  So they revised the allowable levels whilst devising a new plan to attack this problem.

[Tale]

Where are you getting info. to the contrary?  Anyways, it matters not.  Standing in a bunkered control room wont solve the problem.  They have to be able to go outside.  So they revised the allowable levels whilst devising a new plan to attack this problem.

Info from Japanese reporter Hiroko Tabuchi (Twitter @HirokoTabuchi).

"Repeating: Fukushima plant was never abandoned. Workers outside were told to take cover indoors, but never left - TEPCO spox Tanaka Ai."

"Edano was vague, said workers would go to a safe place. I checked w/ NISA & TEPCO, who clarified workers were moving inside but not leaving."

Edano's vagueness was what confused us here at the news organisation where I work in Australia.

[MahrinSkel]

Apparently, Anderson Cooper, Soledad O'Brien, and Sanjay Gupta were discussing it live (with no actual useful information), and I just missed it.  Which I know now because they're re-showing that hour over and over and over....

Our 24-hour news cycle is incapable of actually covering an event 24 hours a day, so they apparently cover it for an hour and just recycle it.

Our infotainment degradation has become complete, it is literally incapable of even pretending to be a mechanism for providing actual information about important events.

--Dave

[Jeff Kelly]

Have I mentioned how completely fucking worthless the cable news channels have been throughout this?  Not just being at least an hour behind what I could find out online, but just *completely* useless?

The hands down best coverage so far has come from Al Jazeera, non-sensationalist, fairly neutral and without hectic. Also the guardian coverage is rather good.

[Ubvman]

On pulling out:
Just posted 45 mins ago on Yahoo News AP.
Japan suspends work at stricken nuclear plant

A U.S. nuclear expert said he feared the worst.

"It's more of a surrender," said David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who now heads the nuclear safety program for the Union of Concerned Scientists, an activist group. "It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse."

"It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel," Lochbaum said.

Is this guy on the level or a scaremonger nuclear activist?
So hard to be sure nowadays as news outlets just don't screen their experts these days from the axe grinding pundits with hidden agendas.

Its not clear whether this is older news, that they have really pulled everyone out; or they are rotating the 70 guys onsite still trying to control the fires.

[apocrypha]

One reason for the disproportionate coverage of this by the media is ratings-chasing and the resulting sensationalism, but there's another factor too - nuclear power is a big political issue.

Since Three Mile Island and (more so) Chernobyl there have been almost no new nuclear reactors built, certainly not in the west. All our current reactors are either approaching the end of their life cycles or, as with Fukushima, decades past their intended life.

So far these reactors have withstood a quake 5-10 times more powerful than they were designed for plus a massive tsunami and still there's been, really, fairly minor consequences, certainly nothing like a Chernobyl. And these are 40+ year old designs!

If the situation plays out favourably - or at least un-catastrophically enough to be spun positively - then I think it could end up being a massive boost to the pro-nuclear arguments. If it doesn't - or if the larger public perception of the outcome is bad - then it will be an equally huge fillip to the anti-nuclear side.

Nuclear power is poorly understood by most people (I've learned a LOT about it over the last few days), is a highly emotive and dramatic subject, and the extent to which it's going to play a part in our lives in the near future is a living political debate the world over. Someone said earlier in this thread that they had been pro-nuclear all their lives but that this event was making them question that position. What happens at Fukushima over the coming days/weeks/years will have a big impact on the nuclear debate.

[Simond]

UoCS are stereotypical "wooly liberal greens" - they want all fossil fuel powerplants shut down because of ACC, but also want all nuclear plants shut down because of TEH ATOMZ. I'm not quite sure where they expect the world to get power from, other than wishful thinking and unicorn farts, because best case alternate energy could give, what, 20% of what we use?

[MahrinSkel]

Their answer would be simple: We should use 80% less.  Not just LED light bulbs and electric cars, but no aluminum or plastics (takes a huge amount of electricity to make both), dispersement into sustainable communities (no more urban centers), and so on.  "Scientific" neo-pastoralists.

--Dave

[Arthur_Parker]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/16/japan-nuclear-crisis-live

8.40am (5.40pm JST): Tania Branigan has been speaking again to Professor David Hinde, head of the department of nuclear physics at the Australian National University. He says that the status of the spent fuel pools at the Fukushima plant is very concerning. Water levels are reportedly dropping in unit 4, and the temperature of the pools in 5 and 6 are now rising.

It is clearly a serious situation now because there is no containment for those spent fuel pools… My feeling is that they are probably a more serious issue now than the reactors, [where] there's at least a degree of containment remaining.

Spent fuel rods are strongly radioactive and the water above them shields against that radiation so as long as the water level is sufficiently high – you can walk up to the edge of the pool and pour a bucket of water in. Once it is even close to the top of the rods the levels are too high to approach the pool, which is clearly what has happened in unit 4.

It's been suggested that the Japanese Self Defence Force could use helicopters to drop water onto the plant (see 8.06am). But even if the military is willing to risk exposing pilots to radiation, Hinde says this is far easier said than done:

My estimates suggest they might need 50 tonnes an hour of water. You could do that easily with a large bore hosepipe but if you are doing it with helicopters it is a lot more difficult – and harder to get the water into the pool. I very much hope they rig up a temporary pipe works in 5 and 6 to pump water in remotely to avoid reaching this situation.

He said the ideal situation would be to re-establish the cooling system, which seems to have been knocked out by the tsunami.

It's difficult to avoid the conclusion that if somebody had laid out a large hose to the spent fuel pool in Reactor 4 sometime after the tsunami, that they wouldn't now be in the situation of considering the use of helicopters to fling tonnes of water at a nuclear reactor building.

[MahrinSkel]

Latest word is that they've given up on the helicopters and are getting ready to try it from the ground.  Not sure if this is going to be spraying it from a distance or if someone is going to try to get a hose to the pool somehow.

--Dave

EDIT: Now they're reporting that water is being poured into the used fuel pools on #5 and #6.  Either somebody volunteered for a suicide mission, or somebody is on site with robots or isolation suits.

[Arthur_Parker]

That report I downloaded.

Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage: Public Report

In response to a request from Congress, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Department of Homeland Security sponsored a National Academies study to assess the safety and security risks of spent nuclear fuel stored in cooling pools and dry casks at commercial nuclear power plants. The information pred in this book examines the risks of terrorist attacks using these materials for a radiological dispersal device. Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel is an unclassified public summary of a more detailed classified book.

Online version http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11263&page=45

A paper by Alvarez et al. (2003a; see also Thompson, 2003) took the analyses in NUREG-1738 to their logical ends in fight of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks: Namely, what would happen if there were a loss-of-pool-coolant event that drained the spent fuel pool? Such an event was not considered in NUREG-1738, but the analytical results in that study were presented in a manner that made such an analysis possible.
Alvarez and his co-authors concluded that such an event would lead to the rapid heat-up of spent fuel in a dense-packed pool to temperatures at which the zirconium alloy cladding would catch fire and release many of the fuel’s fission products, particularly cesium-137. They suggested that the fire could spread to the older spent fuel, resulting in long-term contamination consequences that were worse than those from the Chemobyl accident. Citing two reports by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL, 1987, 1997), they estimated that between 10 and 100 percent of the cesium-137 could be mobilized in the plume from the burning spent fuel pool, which could cause tens of thousands of excess cancer deaths, loss of tens of thousands of square kilometers of land, and economic losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The excess cancer estimates were revised downward to between 2000 and 6000 cancer deaths in a subsequent paper (Beyea et at., 2004) that more accurately accounted for average population densities around U.S. power plants.
Alvarez and his co-authors recommended that spent fuel be transferred to dry storage within five years of discharge from the reactor. They noted that this would reduce the radioactive inventories in spent fuel pools and allow the remaining fuel to be returned to open-rack storage to allow for more effective coolant circulation, should a loss-of-pool-coolant event occur. The authors also discussed other compensatory measures that could be taken to reduce the consequences of such events.
The Alvarez et al. (2003a) paper received extensive attention and comments, including a comment from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff (USNRC, 2003a; see Alvarez et al., 2003b, for a response). None of the commentators challenged the main conclusion of the Alvarez et al. (2003a) paper that a severe loss-of-pool-coolant accident might lead to a spent fuel fire in a dense-packed pool. Rather, the commentators challenged the likelihood that such an event could occur through accident or sabotage, the assumptions used to calculate the offsite consequences of such an event, and the cost-effectiveness of the authors’ proposal to move spent fuel into dry cask storage. One commentator summarized these differences in a single sentence (Benjamin, 2003, p. 53): “In a nutshell, [Alvarez et al.] correctly identify a problem that needs to be addressed, but they do not adequately demonstrate that the proposed solution is cost-effective or that it is optimal.”

This is obviously worst case, so extremely unlikely, they will also be well aware of this report and do everything possible to ensure this doesn't happen.  If you go back a few pages in the report it highlights that the fire can be fuelled by steam or air, as hydrogen is generated, the current delay in adding water might be because they want to get enough water in on their first attempt, otherwise it won't help.

Note obviously I'm not an expert, but if you look back in thread this is why I've been more worried about the fuel pools than the reactors.

[Tale]

EDIT: Now they're reporting that water is being poured into the used fuel pools on #5 and #6.  Either somebody volunteered for a suicide mission, or somebody is on site with robots or isolation suits.

From my reading, I understand that:

a) These are supposed to be pools of boric acid, not water.
b) Spent nuclear fuel rods are supposed to spend at least six months cooling in the pools before they can be processed.
c) If spent nuclear fuel rods in a pool get too close to each other, a nuclear chain reaction is possible (what if they were thrown around by explosions?).

Three nuclear reactors are in partial or possible meltdown, while three spent fuel pools are in trouble (one already caught fire). All side by side in a neat row.

It's all very well if somebody volunteers for a suicide mission to pour water on the pools today, but what about the next six months, with the three problem reactors potentially making it impossible to even get there?

[Arthur_Parker]

From my limited understanding, the pools should be distilled water, otherwise the water gets activated slightly (not really a concern at the minute).  There's no radiation from the pools if there's about 8 ft of water covering the top of the rods (I think it's about 8 ft I didn't bookmark the link), as reactors 5 & 6 are set apart from the others, it's probably pretty safe to add extra water to them and they even have a working generator at 6, so that's all good and not a cause for concern providing staff are able visit the buildings, I'm hoping with a working generator they can also vent the hydrogen which builds over the fuel pools normally so the buildings shouldn't blow either.

The cases the fuel are stored in prevent critical fission, the boric acid being added to the water does the same thing but it's to head off any potential problems with the cases burning off and the fuel gathering in the base of the tank.

There's also a shared fuel pool at site, no word on that but it may have been hit by the tsunami, hope it's venting hydrogen, there's also a dry storage area of really old rods that air circulation should be able to keep cool, that shouldn't be a problem either.

[Arthur_Parker]

Some of the photos are just terrifying.

[Merusk]

Not just the photos, but the vieos.  Schild had one on his Facebook where you saw the stereotypical wall of water Tsunami wave crashing into buildings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-BzcO3AEHM&feature=player_embedded

I saw another one that I can't find the link for where a ship was absolutely destroyed by a highway overpass.  That made me realize yet another issue in the infrastructure damage, widespread weakening or destruction of bridges.  Anything in the area will need a full inspection, and who knows how many will have to be rebuilt/ replaced. 

[Murgos]

There's been very little information lately.  There is still no confirmation where the latest spike of radiation came from, if it was the suppression torus at reactor 2 or the fuel pond at reactor 4?

We do know that there is steam coming from reactor 3.  However, this doesn't seem to be caused by any sort of critical situation at 3 and doesn't seem to be related to the spike in radiation levels earlier.  It appears to be just steam.  Latest info on reactors 1, 2, 3 was that they are still holding pressure and have falling temps.

We do know that people are still on site and working.  Which puts most major media entirely out of date.

We know that that heavy earth moving equipment is being used to allow trucks (fire trucks?) access to other previously unreachable areas of the site.

We know that heavy power lines are being run to the plant and hoped to be in place by the end of the day.  Which should solve a LOT of problems.

We know that translating precise technical meaning is very difficult and has been pretty much a farce during this whole event.  IMO major media has been almost entirely irrelevant at best and actively detrimental in some (many?) cases.

We don't know how much water is in the pond at reactor 4 and this seems to be the most interesting piece of information missing at the moment.  Typically the spent rods are stored under 10 meters of distilled water.  We do know that someone moving batteries around in bldg 4 at ~4 pm Japan time on the 16th saw a fire but by the time the fire crew got there it had put itself out (I've seen it mentioned that this was oil burning from a leak in a generator or pump).  Which seems to imply that there was still at least a enough water left in the pond to get moderately close to it at that time.

[ghost]

Not just the photos, but the vieos.  Schild had one on his Facebook where you saw the stereotypical wall of water Tsunami wave crashing into buildings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-BzcO3AEHM&feature=player_embedded

I saw another one that I can't find the link for where a ship was absolutely destroyed by a highway overpass.  That made me realize yet another issue in the infrastructure damage, widespread weakening or destruction of bridges.  Anything in the area will need a full inspection, and who knows how many will have to be rebuilt/ replaced. 

Those people, driving in the foreground.... 

[Arthur_Parker]

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78622.html

The National Police Agency is considering using a special water cannon truck held by the Metropolitan Police Department to cool a pool storing spent fuel rods at the troubled No. 4 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, police sources said Wednesday.

The operation could start as early as Wednesday night, they said.

Providing it works and there's no more bad luck, they seem to have the situation under control now.

[fuser]

So if a core melts through the containment/core catcher, or if the storage pool boils away and 1500 tons of spent fuel starts burning, won't that be another Chernobyl situation?

Fire was what created the fallout after the explosion at Chernobyl, so yes that would be a similar disaster. Prevailing winds would blow radioactive dust over Hokkaido and out into the Pacific where most of it would sink and disappear. In the former Soviet Union, they blew directly over land.

Just one small point the Chernobyl reactor upper primary shield blew the fsck off of the top of the reactor as a part of their explosion within a few moments of the reactor put into a scram. The Fukushima Daiichi reactors were scrammed soon as the earthquake happened and its days later now they are still having issues with the heat decay and hydrogen. The explosions onsite that destroyed the upper parts of the reactor buildings is related to the hydrogen buildup inside the reactor area as its not being vented off and burned as per normal operating procedure. Back to the point the shields and containment are still in place but the extent of damage to the reactors protection layers (see the pic above) is not fully known.

[MahrinSkel]

The plan for #4 is to bulldoze a new access road and try to get water into the pool by shooting it in through the holes in the walls from a firetruck.  They are truly running out of ideas (the helicopter thing never had much of a chance, but it was easier to try).

--Dave

[Khaldun]

Not just the photos, but the vieos.  Schild had one on his Facebook where you saw the stereotypical wall of water Tsunami wave crashing into buildings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-BzcO3AEHM&feature=player_embedded

I saw another one that I can't find the link for where a ship was absolutely destroyed by a highway overpass.  That made me realize yet another issue in the infrastructure damage, widespread weakening or destruction of bridges.  Anything in the area will need a full inspection, and who knows how many will have to be rebuilt/ replaced. 

How did the person making that video survive?

[Ghambit]

Japan is the world leader in Robotech.  Dont they have a rad-shielded hazmat robotic earthmover that can get in there remotely with a fire cannon or at least a set of manipulators to do some work?
Kinda maddening, I know we have this stuff here in the U.S.

Until they get the reactor damage fixed (suppression pool, etc.) can they even truly make the plant safe with just merely water?  As long as no. 2 and 3 are hot, if the containment has been compromised, it'll never be safe until sealed off entirely or repaired.  So how long till the reactors go "cold?"

[Merusk]

Not just the photos, but the vieos.  Schild had one on his Facebook where you saw the stereotypical wall of water Tsunami wave crashing into buildings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-BzcO3AEHM&feature=player_embedded

I saw another one that I can't find the link for where a ship was absolutely destroyed by a highway overpass.  That made me realize yet another issue in the infrastructure damage, widespread weakening or destruction of bridges.  Anything in the area will need a full inspection, and who knows how many will have to be rebuilt/ replaced. 

How did the person making that video survive?

I have a horrible feeling he didn't.  As the comments point out, in the upper right it says "Live"  so that could have been taped and transmitted just before the videographer's death.

[ghost]

The video cuts off rather abruptly, too, suggesting a fast ending (or hopefully escape).

[slog]

Interesting thread.  One of our nearby Nuke Plants (Vermont Yankee)is up for renewal, so I did a quick google to see if there has been any impact based on current events.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2011/03/16/vermont_yankee_license_extension_on_hold/

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission yesterday put a temporary hold on a 20-year license extension for the controversial Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant. The commission had instructed its staff to issue the renewal last Thursday, the day before the massive earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

Vermont Yankee, in Vernon near the Massachusetts border, has suffered a series of problems in recent years that have frayed the public trust, including the collapse of a cooling tower and leaks of tritium into groundwater from underground pipes that company officials initially said were not there.

Rational or not, I'm 100% opposed to these plant's license being renewed.  

[brellium]

Thankfully the worst thing we ever had happen with Palo Verde is a 120 ton transformer blew, and the only active reactor went into scram.

That was fun having a plant with 3 2200mw 1300mw reactors ofline, while they moved a new transformer from California 700 miles at 7-8 mph.  (yes, those are some of the biggest in the world).