Season #3 Playoffs Prediction's thread

[lamaros]

I agree.

[Sky]

KILLS

 

[Hoax]

While I agree with what people are saying, I also feel that td diff and especially td's for strongly favor certain races over others. Which is why I like head to head. Does it come down more to luck? Maybe so but its BB what doesn't come down to luck.

I think a more compelling argument and therefore one that despite that fact that nobody has made it I'll agree with is that td diff can lead to more final week drama in most circumstances than head to head.

So TD diff -> Head to Head -> Kills/Coin Flip/3rd party game tie breaker

[avaia]

While I agree with what people are saying, I also feel that td diff and especially td's for strongly favor certain races over others. Which is why I like head to head. Does it come down more to luck? Maybe so but its BB what doesn't come down to luck.

The race you choose to play as.

[Llyse]

While I agree with what people are saying, I also feel that td diff and especially td's for strongly favor certain races over others. Which is why I like head to head. Does it come down more to luck? Maybe so but its BB what doesn't come down to luck.

Looks like we need a poll...

Meanwhile crickets chirp waiting for the last match of Day 6... 

[eldaec]

TD diff has the added advantage of being the measure that the system uses first. So outside of stormbringer everything happens automatically and we don't have to construct our own tables.

S&G and HHB could still use clarification on the TV rule for this season btw.

[Ingmar]

I still prefer head-to-head mostly because it just feels shitty to have someone you beat win a tiebreaker with you on something else. Really, none of them are perfect, TD difference is nearly as bad as TDs for for teams like dwarves or khemri that just will never blow someone out and tend to win or lose all their matches by 1.

[Ice Cream Emperor]

I still prefer head-to-head mostly because it just feels shitty to have someone you beat win a tiebreaker with you on something else. Really, none of them are perfect, TD difference is nearly as bad as TDs for for teams like dwarves or khemri that just will never blow someone out and tend to win or lose all their matches by 1.

Clearly they must be combined. TD difference modified by a head-to-head multiplier, so that a difference from the head-to-head matchup counts triple! Except I guess that doesn't work as well for three-way ties. Curses.

[eldaec]

My specific preference:

 - TD diff.
 - Wood Elfs killed.
 - Other Elfs killed.
 - Non-elfs killed.
 - Alphabetical order by Star sign.
 - Quality of match reports posted.
 - Success in the prediction thread.

I give no fucks really, less democracy please.

[Strazos]

I'll deal with whatever the conditions are, but I would prefer head-to-head as a team that is not going to have spectacular TD differentials.

[eldaec]

From this season there is very little evidence that elfs or whatever have naturally higher TD differences.

They score more but also concede more.

The only teams with TD diff outside the typical range are the Catfighters, Alive not Dead, HoHomeopathy, and Peace Dogs. Last season's finalists, and the two new coaches who have struggled the most.

[Teleku]

Show me on the doll where the Wood Elves touched you.   

On TD's...I'm at work and can't look at stats, but am I really only on average for TD's?  I've scored in every game except against Llyse so far, and I've had a 7 TD and 6 TD game.  Also a 3 TD game against Lamaros.  My losses haven't been blow outs either....  Just seems amazing that I wouldn't be on the higher end of the TD scale.

So, from my experiences, TD seems a bit unfair since I can naturally make a shit ton of them when 1 team falls apart.  When facing bashy teams, the strategy is NOT to score a bunch of TD's, even if you've crippled the other team.  You try to hold onto the ball and delay the game until you score at the end, going for 2-1 type victories. 

Going by TD's seems a bit unfair to them.  But great for me!

[Ingmar]

The standings posted have you at -3 TD, which seems like it can't possibly be right. I think all the Nix games got retconned to 2-0, but even with that...

[Ice Cream Emperor]

Teleku is at +7 prior to the NiX adjustment, and +2 afterwards. The -3 was correct if it already included the NiX thing, with the 6-1 win improving the difference to +2. The elves did lose 3-0 to Llyse after all.

Of course, after next week's game it will probably be back to -3.   

[Modern Angel]

Just pick. Nobody should care. There are drawbacks to everything, it probably won't come into play, go see what other leagues are doing.

[Sky]

Best paintjob.

[Sir T]

Loudest nerdrage.

[Cadaverine]

Best contribution to the T&A thread.

[lamaros]

Here are my original playoff predictions

Those in green are correct and through. Those in red are wrong and out.

Battletech

Llyse
Lamaros

Cthulhu the Orient

Comstar
AndyDavo

Stormbringer

Megrim
?? (drogg, in the end!)


Twilight 2000

Strazos
Avaia

[eldaec]

How is the post-season knock-out cup thingy being seeded btw?

Do we get another exciting draw video starring Falconeer's glamorous hand, or are we doing a fixed structure based on where you finished in which league?

[Modern Angel]

I demand another video.

[avaia]

Glad I could disappoint everyone, including myself. 

[Llyse]

I want another video!

Also I only got Cthulhu the Orient right...

Everything else was wrong.

[eldaec]

The vote seems to be going strongly in favour of a new draw for the post season competition. That being the I assume it'll be winners seeded against runners up, with group protection to stop two sides from the same league facing each other in the first round?

This is important as theorycrafting favourable / unfavourable match ups is a critical part of pre-draw analysis.

[Comstar]

How do the playoff's actually work- who plays who?

[Falconeer]

It's winners versus runner-ups. There will be a new draw. There won't be a new video unless I can hire my son to star in it (which is highly unlikely). The awesome would be my fucking father, 78 years old and 50 years on stage. But that's probably even less likely to happen.

Finish the regular season so we can wrap up the League before I leave for Florida and spend the off-time while I am there!

[Sky]

I vote for getting your dad to do the draw and a hot topless italian chick to hold the bowl he draws from. Nay, I demand it!

[Falconeer]

I actually have a hot Italian woman staying with me for the weekend. It might... be... fun to involve her somehow.
But then again, she's probably not what you have in mind.