Season #3 Playoffs Prediction's thread

[IainC]

I've already played Haemish. It's possible that he'll beat AndyDavo but vanishingly unlikely even with Andy only being able to field 6 of his own players in the game. Assuming that Haemish does pull off a win and Proudft beats Comstar then Proudft can scrape into the playoffs if he wins his last game and the AndyDavo/Comstar match ends in a draw. That's actually the best possible result for me because it means I only need two points from two games to go through.

Even with a gutted team though, AndyDavo is one of the most experienced players in the league and Haemish is very much a newbie. Nuffle only knows that games can go either way but I'd still put my money on Andy over Haemish regardless of the teams they are controlling.

[AndyDavo]

i  would like to think that i can pull it off, since a 1-0 win will be good enough to mean all i need to do is avoid defeat in the last game to be sure of going up / qualifying. I wish we could replay our game Iain, i  really do. that was where it all fell apart for me, your cas dice were nasty. infact the dice generally were horrid!

[Falconeer]

Andy, mate. I know this is gonna sound silly, but we are kind of obsessed with punctuation and capital letters around here. I love your contributions to the forum, so please keep up the fantastic work, just with some more additional shift key. Seriously pal, it's great that you enjoy the thread, and since I sincerely appreciate your posts, just make them a little more old-fuckers compliant 

[HaemishM]

Now I'm just going to hope Haemish punches both of you in the face...just to make things interesting.

Elves couldn't punch a girl scout in the face. 

If I beat AndyDavo, you all should buy me a car because I don't see it happening. I've gotten better, but really I don't see me beating an experienced coach this season. I might have a chance against Xuri's Norse in the final game, depending on how many casualties/level ups I get on game day 6.

[Ice Cream Emperor]

So with all of our Game Day #5 games played, we turn to the requisite Battletech Division What-If Playoff Analysis.

Current standings:

Llyse - Alive Not Dead          TD +10 - 13 points
ICE - Negative Capability      TD +3 - 11 points
Ingmar - Beardstorm!           TD +1 - 8 points
Lamaros - Rape of Skabine    TD +4 - 8 points
ezrast - 7 Deadly                  TD -1 - 7 points
Teleku - Hazardous Hippies   TD +2 - 4 points
Cadaverine - Fleshwound      TD -5 - 4 points
Nixel - Undread Fiesta          TD -12 - 0 points


To qualify...

Llyse has clinched a playoff spot (and a tactical advantage going into the playoffs) by drawing a free 2-0 over Nixel in the last round of games.

ICE needs to beat Llyse and draw Teleku, or beat Teleku and draw Llyse in order to guarantee a playoff spot. If ICE loses to either Llyse or Teleku, he needs to beat the other one by a larger margin than Lamaros/Ingmar beats each other in their final game. If Lamaros loses to ezrast and beats Ingmar, ICE only needs one draw from his two games to qualify.

Ingmar gets a free win next week, so he only needs to beat Lamaros and hope ICE loses one of his two games to ensure a tie for the last playoff spot. He needs to beat Lamaros by a larger TD margin than ICE wins his remaining game, or hope that ICE loses or draws said game.

Lamaros needs to win both his remaining games and hope ICE loses one of his two games to ensure a tie for the last playoff spot. Like Ingmar he needs to maintain a greater TD margin as well, but unlike Ingmar he starts with a +1 TD advantage.

ezrast needs to beat Lamaros and Cadaverine and hope that ICE loses and draws and Lamaros beats Ingmar in order to qualify.

Cadaverine, Teleku and Nixel need a time machine.


To win...

Llyse needs to draw or beat ICE to clinch the division title.

ICE needs to beat Llyse and Teleku to win the division.


Next week...

If Llyse beats ICE: Llyse wins the division. ICE needs to clobber Teleku and hope for the best.
If ICE beats Llyse: The title remains up for grabs. ICE just needs to tie Teleku to clinch a playoff spot.
If Llyse and ICE draw: Llyse wins the division. ICE needs to beat Teleku to clinch a playoff spot.

If Ingmar beats Nixel 2-0, nobody will be surprised.

If Lamaros beats ezrast: Ezrast is out. Lamaros still needs to beat Ingmar and hope for an ICE loss/tiebreaker victory.
If ezrast beats Lamaros: Ezrast still needs to win his next game and hope Lamaros beats Ingmar. Lamaros needs to beat Ingmar and hope ICE loses both his games and ezrast doesn't win his.
If ezrast and Lamaros draw: Ezrast is out. Lamaros needs to beat Ingmar and hope ICE only manages one draw from his games.

If Cadaverine beats Teleku: elves suck. undead rule!
If Teleku beats Cadaverine: elves rule! undead suck.
If Cadaverine and Teleku draw: the relative qualities of elves and undead will remain undecided into the foreseeable future.


Unlikely scenarios...

If ezrast beats Lamaros and draws with Cadaverine, Lamaros beats Ingmar, and ICE loses both his games, there will be a four-way tie for second place in the division.

If ezrast beats Lamaros 3-0, and Lamaros beats Ingmar by 2-1, (and ICE loses both his games), there will be a three-way tie for second place between Lamaros, ezrast and Ingmar even after TD difference is included.

If this occurs and the next tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups, nothing is resolved (they all beat each other.)
If this occurs and the next tiebreaker is TDs-for, Lamaros qualifies for the playoffs.

[lamaros]

If I was a betting man, and I am, I would say that the most likely results are a loss for Ice and a win for me in the next round.

If that happens with one TD margins we will have the following:

Llyse - Alive Not Dead          TD +12 - 19 points

Lamaros - Rape of Skabine    TD +5 - 11 points
Ingmar - Beardstorm!           TD +3 - 11 points
ICE - Negative Capability      TD +3 - 11 points (I think this is correct, as Falc spoke of making all the Nix games 2-0 and Ice won his 2-1)

Which would make for a great final round.

Also, Ice's post above was very good, but there are still other possibilities.

Llyse is through.
Ingmar is still in contention on the last day of the season, no matter what.
Ice is still in contention on the last day of the season, no matter what.

If I win and Ice wins I am in contention of the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice lose)
If I win and Ice draws I am in contention of the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice draw or lose)
If I win and Ice loses I am in contention of the last day of the season. (I would need to win)
If I draw and Ice draws I am in contention on the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice lose)
If I draw and Ice loses I am in contention on the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice draw or lose)
If I lose and Ice loses I am in contention on the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice lose)
If I lose and Ice does not lose I am out.

If ezrast does not win against me he is out.
If ezrast wins and Ice wins he is out.
If ezrast wins and Ice draws he is in contention. (He would need to win and have Ice and Ingmar lose)
If ezrast wins and Ice loses he is in contention. (He would need to win and have Ice draw or lose and Ingmar lose)

[lamaros]

The most amazing group in the league:

10 pts   +7 TD   Snoosnoo         to play Silver Horde, Scarlet & Gray
9   pts   +6 TD   Silver Horde     to play Team SnooSnoo, Morsel
9   pts   +4 TD   Morsel             to play Offsidhes, Silver Horde
8   pts   +1 TD   Scarlet & Gray  to play Nifty Helmets, Team SnooSnoo
8   pts    -1 TD   H H Burninluv   to play Rebourne's Wrestlers, Nifty Helmets

If we make the assumption that Nifty Helmets and Rebourne's Wrestlers will continue to lose (reasonable given they have not won yet and only one of their 4 draws was against a team in contention) - by 2-0 - and that Offsidhes will lose to Megrim after being decimated, then we will have:

14 pts  +3 TD   H H Burninluv   to play no-one, no-one
12 pts  +6 TD   Morsel             to play no-one, Silver Horde
11 pts  +2 TD   Scarlet & Gray  to play no-one, Snoosnoo
10 pts  +7 TD   Snoosnoo         to play Silver Horde, Scarlet & Gray
9 pts    +6 TD   Silver Horde     to play Team SnooSnoo, Morsel

Which means:

Silver Horde is out if they lose this week.

Snoosnoo is out if they lose this week and Morsel v Silver Horde is anything but a draw next week.

Everything else is too complicated and involves TD differences and many results.

[AndyDavo]

Andy, mate. I know this is gonna sound silly, but we are kind of obsessed with punctuation and capital letters around here. I love your contributions to the forum, so please keep up the fantastic work, just with some more additional shift key. Seriously pal, it's great that you enjoy the thread, and since I sincerely appreciate your posts, just make them a little more old-fuckers compliant 

I WILL SEE WHAT I CAN DO.

INFACT; NOW LOOK WHATS HAPPENED, I THINK I HAVE A PROBLEM, AS THE SHIFT KEY HAS NOT BEEN USED IN SO LONG IT IS NOW STUCK. ANY SUGGESTIONS?   

[Sky]

You stay classy.

[Der Helm]

 

 

[ezrast]

[Falconeer]

Yeah, now that we made the shift key issues clear, we can move over.

[eldaec]

You can simplify stormbringer further ...

The playoffs start here, any of the top 5 who fail to win a match from now on are out, with the possible exception of snoosnoo who might be able to stand a draw if they get lucky, and Morsel or Silver Horde if pigs fly.

The combinations mean it is impossible for more than 3 teams to win twice and unlikely that less than 2 will. In which case 6 points sees you through unless you are HHB or S&G and have the inferior TD and either Morsel or Silver Horde scored six (they can't both do it).

Now watch day 6 produce 4 stormbringer ties....

[IainC]

For Cthulhu division:

I am through if:
*I win OR draw against Sky
*I lose to Sky AND AndyDavo beats Comstar

AndyDavo is through if:
*He wins OR draws against Comstar
*He loses to Comstar AND I lose to Sky (we would both be on 16 points but AndyDavo has the better TD difference)

Comstar is through if:
*He wins against AndyDavo
*He draws with Andy Davo AND I lose against Sky (we would both be on 16 points but Comstar has the better TD difference)

Stormbringer is wide open still.

After all the day 6 games it looks like this:

Silver Horde   12 points   +7TD
Morsel   12 points   +7TD
HH Burninluv   11 points   +2TD
Scarlet & Grey   11 points   +3TD
SnooSnoo   10 points    +3TD

Silver Horde play Morsel. Scarlet and Grey play SnooSnoo and HHBurninluv play the Nifty Helmets.

SnooSnoo is through if:
*They beat Scarlet and Grey AND HH Burninluv lose or draw AND the Silver Horde v Morsel game is not a draw.
*The beat Scarlet and Grey by at least a four TD differential AND Burninluv lose or draw AND the Silver Horde vs Morsel game is a draw

Scarlet and Grey are through if:
*They beat SnooSnoo AND HHBl don't win their game with two more TDs than S&G score.
*They beat SnooSnoo and the Silver Horde vs Morsel game is a draw

Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv are through if:
*They beat Nifty Helmets AND SnooSnoo beat Scarlet and Grey OR the Morsel vs Silver Horde game is a draw
*They beat Nifty Helmets by two more TDs than Scarlet and Grey manage in their game.

Morsel are through if:
*They beat Silver Horde
*They draw with Silver Horde AND Burninluv do not win their game AND SnooSnoo win or draw with S&G.
*They lose to Silver Horde AND Burninluv lose their game AND the SnooSnoo vs S&G geme ends in a draw

Silver Horde are through if:
*They beat Morsel.
*They draw with Morsel AND Burninluv do not win their game AND SnooSnoo beat or draw with Silver and Grey (SnooSnoo TD difference if they win must be less than +5)
*They lose to Morsel AND Burninluv lose their game AND the SnooSnoo vs S&G game ends in a draw

[eldaec]

Stormbringer, short version.

Any of the top 4 almost certainly go through if they win. SnooSnoo if they get very lucky.


Stormbringer, long form.

Morsel V Silver Horde
The winners go through. Losers are out unless S&G tie with SnooSnoo, and HHB fail to beat Nifty Helmets, if that happens both go through unless the losers lost by 4, then you're into whatever breaks ties after TD.
If this is a tie, S&G, SnooSnoo, and HHB can all get ahead of both teams with a win. If only one of these three teams wins, then Morsel and Silver Horde will be tied on points and TD. Fuck knows what happens in that case.

Scarlet & Gray V Team SnooSnoo
S&G qualify with a win unless there is a clear result in Silver Horde V Morsel and HHB beat Nifty Helmets by one more TD (or better) than S&G beat SnooSnoo.
On a tie S&G need HHB to not beat Nifty Helmets and Silver Horde or Morsel to win by 4.
SnooSnoo must win to be in contention, they also need HHB not to beat Nifty Helmets or Silver Horde and Morsel to tie. If they rely on Horde and Morsel to tie, they'll also need to win by 4 to bring TD level with those two teams.

HH Burninluv V Nifty Helmets
HH Burninluv qualify with a win unless there is a clear result in Silver Horde V Morsel and S&G beat SnooSnoo by one less TD (or better) than HHB beat Nifty Helmets.
A tie or defeat and HHB are out.



I'm not making predictions because this is some fucked up shit. Also, someone tell me what we go to after touchdown difference, because we're going to need to know.

[IainC]

I'm not making predictions because this is some fucked up shit. Also, someone tell me what we go to after touchdown difference, because we're going to need to know.

After TD difference it goes on the head to head result of the two teams (i.e. what the result of the match they played against each other was). After that your guess is as good as mine. Knowing Cyanide it's probably the number of successful GfI rolls or something equally illogical.

[Falconeer]

I answered the tiebreaker question on another thread here. Now if only I could find it... but it's official.

[Falconeer]

Here's the official tiebreaker rules:

It has always been TD difference in the f13 League. If TD diff is the same, then it's TD for. If that is the same too, it is who won in the match between the two teams. If it was a tie, it is best TV. If it still a tie, it will be CAS inflicted. If it is still a tie, I'll post the naked pictures from the Ann Arbor photoshoot, and we'll flip a coin to see who advances.

So after TD diff, it's TD for, before head to head. If you feel it's unfair, we are eventually gonna change it next Season, but since I posted the above statement answering a specific question on February 10th, it cannot be changed for this Season.

[eldaec]

Sounds fair enough. The full table would therefore be...


Pts   Dif   For                                          
12   +7   11 Morsel
12   +7   9   Silver Horde                        
11   +3   8   Scarlet & Gray
11   +2   8   Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv
10   +3   9   Team SnooSnoo                  

The obvious way this could go beyond TDs scored is if S&G win 2-1 while HHB win 2-0, and Morsel v Silver Horde has a result.

S&G & HHB would be split over the playoff line and would be level on points, score difference, and touchdowns. Their head to head result was an inconclusive 1-1.

Moving on to team value, Scarlet and Gray are on 1380, HHBurninluv are 20 behind on 1360, though both have enough cash on hand to boost their TV if they wish (S&G more so than HHB). So how are we measuring this? Are the teams allowed to spend cash after day 7? Are we excluding the value of injured players as the system does?

S&G are ahead on casualties, 15 to 12, if it comes to that.

[Sky]

Am I reading it right that at some point a higher tv is the tie-breaker? Seems to me the lower tv should progress, not the higher, since theoretically the lower tv team had less weapons.

But when you throw in inducements, I dunno. Seems to me the entire idea of tv breaking the tie throws out gameplay parameters and favoring either high or low tv biases the playoffs toward newbs or vets.

My 2¢ since I won't be seeing a playoff for quite a while, if ever :p

[eldaec]

Actually, the rules lawyer in me is pointing out that Falconeer said the "best" TV qualifies, that could be taken either way.

I don't think anyone seriously expected a tie for second place on points, difference, TD scored, and head-to-head to actually happen.

But arguably it is right now one of the most likely Stormbringer outcomes.

[Falconeer]

We should vote on regulations for next Season. What should we go for?

[eldaec]

I have no real issues with the rules above. Though skipping the TV tie breaker wouldn't hurt.

[Ingmar]

I always kind of feel like head to head should be the first tie breaker.

[Ice Cream Emperor]

I agree with Ingmar. I like Head to Head -> TD difference -> TDs for -> CAS dealt -> flip a coin. A halfling vs. halfling side-playoff would also be acceptable.

TV just feels too manipulable to use for a tie-breaker, IMO, and it would be pretty lame for a coach to feel pressure to buy or sell players as a contingency for a tiebreaker, rather than because of tactical concerns about upcoming games.

[Hoax]

I think that head to head and td difference have to be #1 and #2 respectively if you are still tied after that you have no right to complain the tie breaker could be a coin toss for all I care.

[HaemishM]

What Hoax said.

[lamaros]

I think that head to head and td difference have to be #1 and #2 respectively if you are still tied after that you have no right to complain the tie breaker could be a coin toss for all I care.

I've told it was TD difference, then Head to Head all along.

If it's not then I'm out.

[Ingmar]

I think that head to head and td difference have to be #1 and #2 respectively if you are still tied after that you have no right to complain the tie breaker could be a coin toss for all I care.

I've told it was TD difference, then Head to Head all along.

If it's not then I'm out.

TD difference is first this season, yes, we're pondering what it should be for next season.

[Strazos]

Head-to-head, TD diff, TD scored, TD allowed, tie breaking side-game somehow.

[ezrast]

Strongly disagree that head-to-head should be the first tie-breaker. Single games between closely-matched teams/coaches are as likely as not to be the product of Nuffle's whims. TD difference is a better indicator of overall excellence throughout the season, in my opinion.

[Comstar]

TD difference is a much better way than a single Head to Head Match. It shows the season difference, rather than just a single game that might come down to one roll.

[Llyse]

Strongly disagree that head-to-head should be the first tie-breaker. Single games between closely-matched teams/coaches are as likely as not to be the product of Nuffle's whims. TD difference is a better indicator of overall excellence throughout the season, in my opinion.

My vote's here as well.

[Ice Cream Emperor]

Good points about head to head, so if someone's taking an informal poll you can revise my vote -- but I'd still like to see head-to-head used before TDs-for.

[Falconeer]

 but I'd still like to see head-to-head used before TDs-for.

I think this should be the way to go. Head to head makes sense in some pro sports, but no much in Blood Bowl, I am afraid. At the same time, TD for is a joke as some teams are meant to score so much more than others.

I think we should really go for

1) TD diff
2) head-to-head
3) TD for