MLB 2011

[ghost]

Right.  So could a tagged up runner plow over the third baseman in the same way that they do the catcher?

[Paelos]

Right.  So could a tagged up runner plow over the third baseman in the same way that they do the catcher?

It wouldn't happen because the 3rd baseman doesn't block the bag, but yeah it's legal. Second basemen get jacked up all the time breaking up double plays.

[caladein]

The breaking up double plays thing is what gets me more than catchers getting trucked since the runner's already out and just making a nominal effort to touch the base.

[Ingmar]

Yeah especially when the SPIKES UP thing shows up.

[Trippy]

My sliding link on the previous page is about injuries to fielders caused by runners sliding hard into 2nd trying to break up a double-play. Tsuyoshi Nishioka suffered a broken leg in April trying to turn a double play.

[Sjofn]

Bochy's the manager. Let's take that into account? He's absolutely never going to say a dude taking out one of his stars wasn't dirty. Ever.

Bochy hasn't said it was dirty in anything I've read or listened to, actually. He said it's what runners are told to do and it's the way those plays unfold and he's sure the guy wasn't trying to actually hurt Posey. However, he has also said that these sorts of situations are going to get uglier as the players get bigger and stronger, that the catcher is really, really exposed and every catcher is aware they're going to usually get creamed in that situation. And honestly, he's right. Unless you like seeing catchers (and runners, that guy could've fucked himself up on that play too) have serious injuries in a largely non-contact sport, I really don't see why "no diving head fucking first into the catcher" would be a horrible thing. I'd rather, you know, keep players playing.

[Paelos]

I don't disagree with anything Bochy said there. Honestly, I do like seeing catchers getting hit. So do tons of fans. Nobody wants to see them get injured of course, but damn if it isn't one of the absolute most exciting plays in baseball. It also happens so freaking rarely that it's awesome when it goes well.

Bochy said this:

I just think that something should be done here, because now you’ve probably lost the player here for awhile. We lost our best player, but also, a lot of kids go out to watch Buster play — not just here, but everywhere. So it’s a tough one. I just think if something isn’t done, it won’t be long before we’re hearing. You’re trying to catch a ball, a guy is running full speed. It’s just a tough position to be for a catcher.

You lost one of your best draws, but there was absolutely no problem before it happened. There will be no problem again in a week. You just have to take your medicine and move on. Hell, I have another story where McCann got bumped up to the majors because Estrada got hurt in a collision. Bobby Cox didn't cry about changing the rules. He just got the next guy in there, talked about how good McCann was, and moved on.

[stu]

Was there much discussion when Ryan Kalish launched himself into the side of Carlos Santana's knee last year? Because that shit was vicious.

[Paelos]

Was there much discussion when Ryan Kalish launched himself into the side of Carlos Santana's knee last year? Because that shit was vicious.

No, and that was worse in terms of injury. Still, Santana recovered and hit a walk-off grand slam earlier this year in April. He's struggling with a .203 average, but I chalk that up to sophomore slump rather than injury.

[Ingmar]

Was there much discussion when Ryan Kalish launched himself into the side of Carlos Santana's knee last year? Because that shit was vicious.

No, and that was worse in terms of injury. Still, Santana recovered and hit a walk-off grand slam earlier this year in April. He's struggling with a .203 average, but I chalk that up to sophomore slump rather than injury.

I suspect if it had happened in a town people pay attention to it might have generated a little more conversation.

[Paelos]

Probably, but I still think in both of those cases you're looking at two rookies who got injured because they didn't display proper technique. Even guys like Posada who played catcher for years got hurt in collisions early because they didn't know what they were doing yet.

[Sjofn]

In other news, I am both amused and concerned the Diamondbacks have randomly started ... being good? Or something? They're in second and only a game and a half back! They've also gone 9-1 in their last 10 games? Yeesh.


(They're currently beating the Astros, maybe I just jinxed them! Probably not, though, as they're in the Giants' division so it would be worse if they won.)

[Paelos]

Let's round this thing out. Today and tomorrow I'll finish up the AL.

THE AL CENTRAL

Cleveland - They don't make shocked faces big enough for this one. Paint one on the moon, Tribe fans, because nobody saw this coming. If they did, they are flat lying, or live in Cleveland and think, "This is our year!" every year. So why are they here? Well, for starters, they DOMINATE at home. No joke, they are 19-6 in Cleveland. That's like NBA-type ridiculousness for a home record. The only other team that is better than that is Milwaukee, and that's because nothing scares opposing teams like a bunch of boozed up fatasses in Wisconsin. They have nothing left to live for except baseball in that god-awful town. Here's my problem with Cleveland. They don't do anything really well, they do everything fine. Well rounded can win a division, but can it win in the playoffs? Usually not.

Detroit - Realistically, after a .500 season last year, you'd expect Detroit to be on the way up again. The only problem with that theory is that their pitching is awful and their hitting is bland. There is nothing impressive about the Tigers this year. They commit a lot of errors, they don't hit many home runs, and they are in the middle of the league in pretty much every offensive category. I feel like I'm wasting time talking about them. Everything about the Tigers screams vanilla, and vanilla doesn't win championships. I think you're going to go from .500 to .500 again this season.

White Sox - Chicago is like Detroit, but without the home field advantage. They lose at home, they lose on the road, and they do it all while Ozzie has hissy-fits in the dugout. They can't pitch worth a damn, and they too are extremely average at the plate. The White Sox are too damn streaky to make anybody feel comfortable. Against Texas and Toronto, they'll go 2-5. Then, in a road series against Seattle, LA and Oakland they'll go 6-3. Then, at home against the Orioles and the Twins they'll go 1-5? WTF? They have 2 winning streaks of 3 or more, and 5 losing streaks of 3 or more games. They have no idea who they are or what they are doing, and for that reason they will continue to fail unless they can find some kind of identity as a team.

Kansas City - Well for once, KC isn't dead last. That's something right? Maybe it's worth a kudos? Kudos KC! Btw, you're awful and you have no chance. You've never had a chance. There is nothing good about who you are as a team or what you do. It's by sheer will of your fans that you haven't been moved to Vegas or somewhere that could draw more than 20,000 people a game.

Minnesota - WHAT. THE. FUCK? How the hell is this team this bad. Talk about penthouse to the outhouse. Good lord, Mauer, KC is laughing at yall! The Twins have been outscored by 90 runs this season. That's 34 runs worse than anybody else in the entire league. They have the worst record in baseball. They've only won 6 home games. SIX?!?! I mean fuck, even the limp-dicked Padres have won nine at home by now. The team is hitting .238, they have the worst ERA in baseball, and their star player has some bizarre leg injury that nobody can nail down. Their infield can't hit the ball at all. Morneau, Valencia, Casilla, and Tolbert are all just terrible. The one bright spot I feel bad for is Jason Kubel. God he is trying. You have a 29 year old that's making $5M a year, 3x less than that suckass Morneau, and he's hitting .310 with 30 RBIs. Tough break, kid, since your big named draw is a pussy.

Final Standings:

1 - Cleveland
2 - White Sox
3 - Detroit
4 - Minnesota
5 - KC

Cleveland waltzes away with the division because let's be honest, the AL Central really really sucks this year.

[HaemishM]

I watched yesterday's Tigers/Twins game. The Twins are only that bad because of really bad luck and some anemic slugging. Their doubles are way down as compared to last year which usually makes up for a little bit of the fact that they don't hit a lot of home runs. But the team is missing their big time catcher who not only can hit the shit out of the ball, but he makes the pitching staff better by his presence. That's why this team is in the toilet. No power, no pitching. The Twins are going to have to face facts - Mauer cannot be an everyday catcher and be the kind of offensive threat they need. Their top homer hitter has 5 home runs at the end of May. Their bullpen is terrible untll you get to the closer too, and their starting pitching seems to be more vanilla than the Tigers hitting.

The Tigers have gotten better but yeah, I don't see them getting much above .500 or challenging. They've tried 5 different second basemen. Austin Jackson seems their only real outfield every day, every pitch player. They won't wow anyone with defense, pitching or hitting (other than Cabrera). Their team seems to lack any sort of sparkplug or pizazz.

[Paelos]

I'm not sure I can chalk the Twins up to bad luck. I'll cherry pick a few of their choice losses:

13-3 to the Blue Jays
10-5 to the Royals
11-0 to the Orioles
15-3 to the Rays
11-2 to the Royals
10-2 to the Tigers
11-3 to the Blue Jays

Oh, and they got swept by Tampa, swept by KC, swept by Detroit, swept by Toronto, and swept by Arizona.

[ghost]

When they lose horribly it's cause they suck.  When they barely lose it's due to bad luck.   

[HaemishM]

Yesterday's loss was sort of bad luck. 8th inning, tied 5-5, Peralta on first and dude at the plate hits a double down the line. It carooms either off of a fan's hand or the bottom of the stands into the stands on the side and hits a fan which knocks it back into play. Instead of calling fan interference or a ground rule double, the umps let Peralta score from first for the winning run. Yes, he probably would have scored on the next batter anyway, but still. Cursed luck.

Oh and their bullpen blows monkeys.

[Sjofn]

Arizona crushed the Marlins. 

[Paelos]

Similar thing happened to the Braves recently. Martin Prado was on first with two outs, and Chipper hits one deep to right-center where a fan reaches out with a hat and knocks the ball around. Prado is running on the crack of the bat and would have easily scored if the fan doesn't touch the ball that was going off the wall. Instead, the umps call fan interference, put Prado at 3rd, and put Chip at 2nd. I think that's the wrong call because it's up to the umpire's discretion. With 1 out, and the runner not moving, that's the right call.

I watched the replay. Peralta's gonna score there if the ball just stays low and hits those barriers. There's no way you can get a ball down the line back in fast enough to get a guy going on the crack of the bat unless he's Prince Fielder's size or a catcher.

[HaemishM]

Except when the ball bounces out of the field of play and hits the guy in the orange shirt, the ball is a ground rule double whether a fan touched it or not. The umps had two chances to rule correctly on that play and they failed on both of them.

[Paelos]

Except when the ball bounces out of the field of play and hits the guy in the orange shirt, the ball is a ground rule double whether a fan touched it or not. The umps had two chances to rule correctly on that play and they failed on both of them.

Nope. That's an extended corner of the stadium. It's not the same as a ball going into the stands and coming back out because if the orange guy isn't there, the ball can easily go over that portion of the stands and back into play. It's a judgement call by the umps, and it was called fan interference which according to rule 3.16 "Batter and runners shall be placed where in the umpire’s judgment they would have been had the interference not occurred." The only difference is where the runner would have ended up if the play was allowed to continue naturally.

If the ball landed in the stands it's a ground rule double, but it didn't.

[Paelos]

Capping off our journey through the MLB predictions, we go now to the East:

THE AL EAST

Yankees - The Bronx Bombers are living up to the nickname. #1 in Slugging, #1 in HRs, and #1 in RBIs. Here's the scary part, they also draw the most walks in the AL, and they don't strike out very often. Without a doubt, the Yankees are the best offensive club in the majors, and nobody is shocked by that fact. They certainly paid for it. Even with the struggles by Jorge Posada, they've still managed to have 3 players with 10 or more home runs, 4 players with 30+ RBIs, and 2 players with 30+ walks. So it's over, right? Nobody can catch them? Well, maybe, but I'm not sure. The odd thing is despite the fact that the Yankees are scoring a ton, they don't actually hit the ball that well. A .254 team average puts them in the same basket as a team like Detroit. So why are the Yankees killing it, while the Tigers are suffering? Because chicks dig the long ball. Oh, and having a top 10 pitching staff doesn't hurt. CC Sabathia is ridiculous. He's gone in 12 games, averaging 7 innings per start, and has a 2.98 ERA with 6 wins. Good luck facing that guy when he's got a team of hand-cannons behind him.

Boston - After what can only be described as the worst start Boston's seen in several years, the team is only 1 game back of the Yankees. Where the Yankees rely on clubbing the ball, the Red Sox methodically get hit after hit after hit. #3 in average, #2 in doubles, #4 in HRs, #4 in RBIs. They are a great hitting team. In fact, I would say they are a much better hitting team than the Yankees, but they aren't better offensively yet. The Problem is that Boston's pitching staff isn't great or good, it's pretty bad. Lester has an ERA near 4.00, but he has 7 wins due to his benefit of a lot of run support. In fact, he's gone 4-1 in May with a 5.50 ERA. That makes no sense, and it won't last. Beckett's great, and I'm not worried about him. Buchholz is average. From there you get into the dregs of Dice-K, Wakefield, and Lackey. Lackey is especially awful this year before he went on the DL. If he can't rebound, the rotation looks really weak after the top 2.

Tampa Bay - Right on everyone's heels is that annoying little yappy dog that's been bothering the juggernaughts now for 3 years. Tampa's managed to get in everyone's business and ruined the Boston/NY playoff lockdown in 2008 and 2010. We all know the wild card is coming out of the East, so we have to consider that Tampa is legit now. It's not a fluke anymore. This is a solid club with solid pitching, and solid hitting. They are the Indians of this division. They can do it all, but they don't do anything that blows your eyeballs out of your head. Unlike they Indians, they play in the toughest division in baseball. Two things have to improve for Tampa to have a shot. 1 - they have to improve their batting average, which is 21st in the majors. 2 - their pitching staff needs to improve their K/BB ratio. Right now it's 2.03, but without outstanding hitting, you need to be closer to 2.2 or 2.3 to keep opposing teams in check.

Toronto - 3 games back but barely over .500? Should we care? In short, no, and I'll point to three reasons why. First, they can't win in their division. They are 9-13 in the East, and have scrapped together most of their wins against the subpar Central. Second, their pitching staff gives up a lot of deep shots, and they've already managed to blow 8 saves. If I know that 40% of the time they are going to give up the game late, then that's a mental boon for their opponents. Lastly, there's no all star on that team. They have no draw. They have no reason for fans to show up. Don't let that fool you, being last in percentage of attendance takes it toll late in the season when you wonder why you're getting up to play in the morning.

Baltimore - You can't hit, your pitching staff is a greasefire, and you're tied for 5th most errors in the AL. Well at least you can't fall out of last place. In fact, you've finished dead last in the AL East for the last 3 seasons. Tampa Bay getting good didn't help you out much. Maybe you can climb out of last place this year? Well, when you're getting outscored by 41 runs, survey saaaaaaaays...no! Baltimore fans need to really REALLY hope there is an NFL season this year, because that's the only thing you're going to care about come August.

Final Standings:

1 - Boston
2 - NY Yankees (Wild Card)
3 - Tampa Bay
4 - Toronto
5 - Baltimore

I think Boston jumps the Yankees because their pitching will get better, and the Yankees can't live by the long ball alone. That's too streaky. They need to get better at just simply hitting before they can get the consistent production they need.

[HaemishM]

I think you are seriously overestimating that Yankees pitching staff but looking at their stats, I can see why. As a team, their pitching has been a lot better than I expected. I don't expect that to last throughout the year. Sabathia may be a stud all year, but I don't put a lot of faith in Colon, Garcia or Burnett being as good as they've been down the stretch. Of course, the Yankees will have the ability to trade for pitching by the deadline if needed, but I'm actually leaning towards them missing the playoffs.

Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.

[Paelos]

I think it's wishful thinking. They are crushing the ball. Forget pitching for a second, because honestly you don't need that to get into the playoffs. You need it to win in the playoffs. When I'm picking teams to make it I'm always going to back the strongest offensive squads.

That totally changes come playoff time, and that's because with steroids gone, pitching will win a series. The Giants proved that last year against a lot of odds.

I mean look at last year, Tampa and the Yankees were clubbing people with a 150+ run differential. Texas had +100, Minnesota had +110. Philly had +132, Atlanta had +109, Cincy had +105, and SF had +114. If you didn't outscore your opponents by 100+, you missed the playoffs. That was a cutoff. It was all about scoring big runs. That flipped in the playoffs when you had Texas and SF show up in the World Series. Texas' staff was better than anybody except Tampa, and the Giants were #1 in the majors. The Giants won easily.

[ghost]

I think the Yankees will definitely make the post season, and look to be a decent threat to win the whole thing.  They play in the toughest division and are in first place, so they certainly aren't chopped liver.

[Paelos]

I think the Yankees will definitely make the post season, and look to be a decent threat to win the whole thing.  They play in the toughest division and are in first place, so they certainly aren't chopped liver.

Unless Atlanta or San Diego suddenly learn how to hit the ball, yes, the Yankees are going to be my odds on favorite to win the whole thing, followed closely by Philly.

[ghost]

I don't think they are a prohibitive favorite, by any stretch.  I'm continually surprised by how strong the NL teams are in the Series.

[HaemishM]

I do not see the Yankees winning the whole thing at all. Even if they make the playoffs, that pitching will kill them. Nobody scares me in a 5 or 7 game series beyond Sabathia. Is there a big name pitcher that we expect to be on the trading block come July from a losing team? Plus, I think that offense is going to tail off. I really think there's something in that locker room waiting to self-destruct this team come August. The Jeter/Posada dramas are I think an early sign of an impending if not meltdown (because that's a lot of talent to suddenly stop playing well enough to make it .500 down the stretch) at least a stumble.

[Paelos]

Burnett is good. He's just prone to the HR. Same for Colon. Garcia is a 50/50 passable 4th guy, and Nova is just kinda there.

Am I afraid of them like I am of Philly? God no. And for good reason. Outside of CC and AJ, their starters get paid dick. Still, if they can hold down a 3.50 team ERA during the season? Forget it. What I am afraid of is pitching to Granderson, Cano, Teixeria, and ARod. Are we really going to argue that their "holes" are Jeter and Posada? Shit, I can name 20 teams that would LOVE to have that as their hitting problems. You have a DH that's hitting .170 but somehow has 16 RBIs, and a SS hitting .264 with 16 RBIS. So, your biggest problem is that your worst two plays have driven in 32? Try being the Padres where only 3 guys on your team are hitting better than that. THAT'S a problem.

[HaemishM]

No, I don't think Jeter and Posada are their holes - I think the drama around their silliness a few weeks ago are signs of a bigger clubhouse problem that's going to cause enough of a slump to leave them in 3rd place.

[Ingmar]

RBIs mean nothing except the guys ahead of you get on base. If they had decent hitters in those 2 spots they'd have a LOT more RBIs. (OK Jeter still qualifies as "decent" but they need to take that bat away from Posada.)

[Paelos]

RBIs mean nothing except the guys ahead of you get on base. If they had decent hitters in those 2 spots they'd have a LOT more RBIs. (OK Jeter still qualifies as "decent" but they need to take that bat away from Posada.)

I don't disagree. And yet even with that space to grow, they still lead the majors. It's a little scary.

[caladein]

Just looking at the Yankees starters, first, that's scary, even with Posada who stinking up the place.

Posada's lost a bit everywhere from the looks of it, but he's also been supremely unlucky.  If his luck on balls-in-play gets anywhere close to last season's mark, he should be in the same range as Jeter and Swisher: a bit (15-20%) below-league-average.  Which is plenty when five other guys in your lineup are completely destroying the ball.

[Paelos]

I'd say my power rankings right now are as follows:

1 - Yankees
2 - Cardinals
3 - Phillies
4 - Rangers
5 - Indians
6 - Rays
7 - Red Sox
8 - Braves
9 - Diamondbacks
10 - Brewers

[Sjofn]

The Diamondbacks are making me go