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Topic: The Second MMO (Read 24127 times)
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Slayerik
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Posts: 4868
Victim: Sirius Maximus
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Ah cheers - I wasn't too sure on that.
Re: WoW, I was thinking last night that they actually reinvented themselves with BC - reducing reliance on 25mans, reducing levelling grind so that you could get into the good stuff at 70 while not coming close to endgame, implementing the token system etc.
I'll be interested to see whether their next MMO is innovative or more of the traditional MMO fodder.
Innovation? Have you been paying attention to MMOs the past...say ... 10 years? There is fuckall innovation. Hell, shit they even pulled off in UO seems to have been thrown out as a concept (housing) and everything is a Diku fuckfest these days (See AoC, WAR). That being said I switch between Eve and Wow, just cause....well...what else is there that is worth a shit? I'd say Planetside, but the game is dead. For about 6 months, I had a ton of fun with that game. I'm with Stray. Fuckin' MMOs......grumble grumble grumble
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"I have more qualifications than Jesus and earn more than this whole board put together. My ego is huge and my modesty non-existant." -Ironwood
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Yoru
Moderator
Posts: 4615
the y master, king of bourbon
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Innovation? Have you been paying attention to Blizzard the past...say ... 10 years?
FIFY. Blizzard hasn't broken new ground since, arguably, Diablo 1 in 1996 or earlier. They make highly-polished Genre King games - the sort of games that set the high-water mark for a certain type of gameplay for a very long time. And they do it very, very, very well. I would be very surprised if they pulled some new MMO type out of their collective asses, instead of deciding to win the F2P/Web MMO market or PVP MMO market instead. I could also theoretically see them moving into less-developed MMO segments like MMORTS, given their *craft heritage, but that would seem a longer shot. MMORTSes never really succeeded beyond crowds of a few tens of thousands. (Of course, saying that is like saying "MMORPGs never went beyond a few hundred thousand" after EQ and before WOW...)
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Slayerik
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4868
Victim: Sirius Maximus
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I guess what I am saying is, noone has innovated since the originals. When I first heard of Ultima Online, I said "finally". I had been hoping for something like that for years. Basically, I thought we would have come much farther with different types of games by now. Shit like Mechwarrior, Xwing/Tie fighter, Syndicate, large scale FPSes like Planetside (thanks for trying SOE).
I like Blizzard for how they have always been. Diablo is just an improved version of Rogue when it comes down to it, but its is damn fun. I will basically buy any game they release if they stick to the system they have for so many years. There success is a double edged sword for a guy like me, I get good games but I get everyone else copying them and fucking up any type of diversity in this market.
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"I have more qualifications than Jesus and earn more than this whole board put together. My ego is huge and my modesty non-existant." -Ironwood
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UnSub
Contributor
Posts: 8064
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To play devil's advocate, MMOs have been introducing innovations as they've developed over time, but this innovation has generally been evolutionary, not revolutionary. A revolutionary MMO comes along and we hear probably wouldn't talk about it because it isn't what we (royal we) generally play.
If we are going to get pissy about it, I can say that RPGs haven't shown innovation since Ultima. I'd be right if I drew a large enough definition of "RPG" and "innovation".
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Slayerik
Terracotta Army
Posts: 4868
Victim: Sirius Maximus
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Good point. I just like throwing out sweeping generalizations and hoping I don't get called on it :)
I think you get what I'm saying though.
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"I have more qualifications than Jesus and earn more than this whole board put together. My ego is huge and my modesty non-existant." -Ironwood
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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SWG, yes, but I wonder if it really would have had the same problems if had been labelled 'UO2'.
WAR has a whole set of other problems caused by Mythic's history, but it certainly isn't people trying to do daoc right.
TR is RG setting off in a whole new direction, it doesn't feel like someone trying to correct the problems of UO.
Vanguard is like WAR, it is poisoned by people learning the wrong things from EQ. It isn't people trying to exorcise the ghosts of EQ.
tbh, apart from SWG I can't think of any good examples.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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Venkman
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Posts: 11536
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I think many would disagree with you on WAR, but that's been stated.
VG was an attempt to do EQ1 better. They just got it wrong by focusing on the wrong things. That's part of Second System too. This affects EQ2 at launch as well (not EQ2 of today).
I agree with you on TR.
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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I guess what I am saying is, noone has innovated since the originals. When I first heard of Ultima Online, I said "finally". I had been hoping for something like that for years. Basically, I thought we would have come much farther with different types of games by now. Shit like Mechwarrior, Xwing/Tie fighter, Syndicate, large scale FPSes like Planetside (thanks for trying SOE).
I see some innovation in things like what daoc did with RvR, how CoH was built, and various aspects of EVE. But I also don't really understand why noone will develop MMOGs other than character RPGs.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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I think many would disagree with you on WAR, but that's been stated.
The only efforts made to 'do daoc better' in WAR have been last minute patched in daoc-lite versions of rvr because oh-shit-the-Guild-Wars-lite-stuff-wasn't-hitting-home-runs. And mythic openly stated more than once how they threw out the good ideas from daoc to stop it being seen as daoc 2. I'm not sure anyone seriously sees WAR's problem being Mythic trying to refight the battles they lost in daoc? VG was an attempt to do EQ1 better. They just got it wrong by focusing on the wrong things. That's part of Second System too. This affects EQ2 at launch as well (not EQ2 of today). Thinking some more, EQ2 is probably an even better example than SWG. Aimed at exactly the same audience and then largely designed by listing the common gripes in EQ, then overcompensating. The result being a game that had so many sub-systems it almost seemed to play itself, too simple to play, too complex to understand or to feel immersed in, and way too much effort channeled into mechanics and design, not enough into content.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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The only efforts made to 'do daoc better' in WAR have been last minute patched in daoc-lite versions of rvr because oh-shit-the-Guild-Wars-lite-stuff-wasn't-hitting-home-runs.
And mythic openly stated more than once how they threw out the good ideas from daoc to stop it being seen as daoc 2.
I'm not sure anyone seriously sees WAR's problem being Mythic trying to refight the battles they lost in daoc?
This is second system effect, not sequel effect  Mythic clearly thought they learned a few things from DAoC and what players wanted from WoW. But they emphasized the wrong things and thought players would adapt to a system that wasn't designed to bring them together, itself the hallmark of a good combat-oriented PvP game (because WAR never set out to be the other type of PvP of fighting over resources and holdings). There's a who sub-forum for this though, so no reason to rehash. I agree with your assessment of EQ2 ;-) And I definitely agree with your thoughts on innovation. So much potential is locked into games that aren't competitive enough for the successful to take notice.
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« Last Edit: December 26, 2008, 05:20:59 PM by Darniaq »
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Sir T
Terracotta Army
Posts: 14223
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Calling it now: CCP's 2nd MMO will follow this trend to the letter.
There's another part to this phenomenon too. The release of the 2nd MMO will spell the death of the 1st MMO as well. As Schild says, Blizzard will be the exception.
Blizzard could sell "Advanced Intestine Simulator" and their fanboys would scream "its wonderful!!!" and it would sell loads of copies.
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Hic sunt dracones.
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Lantyssa
Terracotta Army
Posts: 20848
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It wouldn't retain them if there wasn't any value in the game though. SWG sold over a million boxes. WAR has probably hit a million by now. AoC sold a good chunk. Were these not online games that might be enough, but it's not since they spend multiples of what a single player game costs in making them.
WoW (and Blizzard) might not be for us, but they are doing things right as far as the market is concerned.
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Hahahaha! I'm really good at this!
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Merusk
Terracotta Army
Posts: 27449
Badge Whore
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No game will ever be for the crowd assembled here as a whole. None. Never.
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The past cannot be changed. The future is yet within your power.
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60350
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No game will ever be for the crowd assembled here as a whole. None. Never.
How profound.
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stray
Terracotta Army
Posts: 16818
has an iMac.
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Just to be more lame profound, you can please many types of people with a world. Fit whatever games you want in it. And by whatever games, I don't mean the ones you want to play. 
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stray
Terracotta Army
Posts: 16818
has an iMac.
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Wait, I'm gonna be serious here for a sec.
I think it's technically possible to appeal widely on an abstract/mechanics level, but not neccessarily widely on a theme/content level. For example, say your MMO is a comic book world. Not everyone likes comic books -- so you're limited to fans of that genre. That said, you could keep most of those fans playing if you didn't just cram one game/goal that dictated how you go about existing in that world. To use City of Heroes as an example, it's only one game -- Diku. A pretty tedious one at that (well, it used to be, I don't know anymore). Instead of revolving it around just that, make more effort to appeal to fans of racers, or fighting games, or shooter fans, or hack and slash fans, or whack-a-mole fans, or economists.
I know I'm stating the obvious, but it needs to be said. It's the most obvious problem of mmo's to me. They revolve too much around limited game mechanics. Most of the time, it's just limited to three -- typical diku pve, pvp (heavily based on items and pve overlap), or economy. There are more ways to do things, y'know? And most of the time, when a new mechanic is introduced, it's mostly inconsequential (like, say, some dumb little Holiday ram racing game in WoW), or it's exclusive to high level players (puzzle based bosses in WoW raids).
[edit] Oh, and for all it's warts, SWG really did try to address more than just a few avenues for players to succeed. It was mostly fubar, of course, but they did try!
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« Last Edit: December 26, 2008, 08:05:56 PM by Stray »
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Aez
Terracotta Army
Posts: 1369
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No game will ever be for the crowd assembled here as a whole. None. Never.
How profound. Diablo 3?
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ashrik
Terracotta Army
Posts: 631
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No game will ever be for the crowd assembled here as a whole. None. Never.
How profound. Diablo 3? Not Diablo 2-ey enough
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rk47
Terracotta Army
Posts: 6236
The Patron Saint of Radicalthons
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would like to toss idea to mythic warhammer forwhatever it's worth now. (my subs' gone) I would like to kill my own faction kthx.
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Colonel Sanders is back in my wallet
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apocrypha
Terracotta Army
Posts: 6711
Planes? Shit, I'm terrified to get in my car now!
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Calling it now: CCP's 2nd MMO will follow this trend to the letter.
There's another part to this phenomenon too. The release of the 2nd MMO will spell the death of the 1st MMO as well. As Schild says, Blizzard will be the exception.
Blizzard could sell "Advanced Intestine Simulator" and their fanboys would scream "its wonderful!!!" and it would sell loads of copies. True, but that's true for fanbois of any company/designer/artist/etc. if Blizzard made said AIS then you know for sure that they wouldn't release it until & unless it was the most polished and accessible colon simulator ever, good enough to draw in a whole new layer of players new to poop-making games.
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"Bourgeois society stands at the crossroads, either transition to socialism or regression into barbarism" - Rosa Luxemburg, 1915.
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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It wouldn't retain them if there wasn't any value in the game though. SWG sold over a million boxes. WAR has probably hit a million by now. AoC sold a good chunk. Were these not online games that might be enough, but it's not since they spend multiples of what a single player game costs in making them.
But even WAR will also take in multiples of single player game revenue in subscriptions. It is a failure in that it hasn't achieved what Mythic or EA hoped, but assuming it dawdles along with 200k subs, I suspect it will remain profitable.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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UnSub
Contributor
Posts: 8064
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I see some innovation in things like what daoc did with RvR, how CoH was built, and various aspects of EVE. But I also don't really understand why noone will develop MMOGs other than character RPGs.
Character MMORPGs have been the most successful from a development and financial point of view. So, despite the pedigrees of non-MMORPGs like Shattered Galaxy (MMORTS) and Planetside (MMOFPS that was successful for a time) the fact that EQ dominated UO is why were are where we are today.
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Senses
Terracotta Army
Posts: 280
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If, in some alternate universe, the WoW we got at its inception was released today to compete against what we now know to be the current WoW, it would fail, just like Warhammer and AoC. I don't believe for a second that Blizzard could repeat their success with a new MMO just because they are blizzard or that they have learned some secret of turning games instantly into gold, fanbois of the company or not. That being said, I think part of what has kept them successfull is that they *know* this and plan to hold onto WoW and milk it for everything its got before they ever dare try to make lightning strike twice.
There are so many other factors aside from an amazing revolutionary polished game involved that the company that does "beat" WoW will probably benefit mostly from very good timing. History is full of examples of the underdog overcoming the popular powerhouse despite their clear business disadvantage but Blizzard is going to have to make alot of mistakes before it happens.
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« Last Edit: December 27, 2008, 08:29:31 AM by Senses »
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60350
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If, in some alternate universe, the WoW we got at its inception was released today to compete against what we now know to be the current WoW, it would fail, just like Warhammer and AoC. I don't believe for a second that Blizzard could repeat their success with a new MMO just because they are blizzard or that they have learned some secret of turning games instantly into gold, fanbois of the company or not. That being said, I think part of what has kept them successfull is that they *know* this and plan to hold onto WoW and milk it for everything its got before they ever dare try to make lightning strike twice.
There are so many other factors aside from an amazing revolutionary polished game involved that the company that does "beat" WoW will probably benefit mostly from very good timing. History is full of examples of the underdog overcoming the popular powerhouse despite their clear business disadvantage but Blizzard is going to have to make alot of mistakes before it happens.
If they made Diablo Online, some sort of bastardized instanced MMOG-lite to compete with Guild Wars or whatever you want to throw at it, and they charged an extra $5-$10 on top of a WoW subscription or a $15 to non-WoW subscribers, you can bet your sweet ass they'd get 5-15M people AGAIN. Are they there yet? No, Starcraft II and D3 went into development before WoW was even released. Now, World of Starcraft, yea, I'm not sure, the best move would be to make a package sub. 5M more people at $5-$10 more a month is worth the dev costs though - you know it, I know it, and Blizzard knows it. Yea, they're gonna milk this WoW cashcow, but then, it seems to be giving up it's milk fairly easily. All we can hope at this point - we being those of us that don't play WoW - is that SOE gets their shit together and knocks one of their next titles out of the park or someone like Valve enters the arena. Or Blizzard makes Diablo Online. And yea, timing is important. Blizzard making mistakes wouldn't change much though. Whether they make mistakes or not, people _will_eventually_get_tired. With their rate of growth though, that won't be for a long, long time.
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rattran
Moderator
Posts: 4258
Unreasonable
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I think a lot of it has to do with trust in the Dev Team. If I feel a dev team has a chance to fix stuff, I'll stay with a game much longer. If (like in SWG/CoH/Necron) I feel like they're merely adding grind/nerfs or making changes that don't improve the game, I'll leave, but keep checking in to see if stuff gets better. If (AO/WaR/AoC) I think they're disconnected fucktards who have no fucking clue, I'm gone forever.
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Jack9
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Posts: 47
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If, in some alternate universe, the WoW we got at its inception was released today to compete against what we now know to be the current WoW, it would fail, just like Warhammer and AoC. I take issue with this. Neither WAR nor AoC were in the same league as WoW1.0 in terms of play content, art content, or design decisions (as we see over and over again with both). While the amount of money and time spent on WoW1.0 wouldn't justify the subscriptions they could squeeze out of the current offerings (in an immediate monetary sense, it might "fail"), it would still outshine both of those epic mistakes, in the first year, living happily as the pre-BC shard - assuming it was literally WoW1.0 released on some server(s?).
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Venkman
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11536
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History is full of examples of the underdog overcoming the popular powerhouse despite their clear business disadvantage but Blizzard is going to have to make alot of mistakes before it happens.
Actually, history is full of outsiders coming in and redefining the metric of success. This isn't the glorified david vs goliath scenario. It's more that Blizzard's biggest risk is that they've got almost everyone that wants this type of game and that everyone else present and future goes to a completely different type of game altogether. Not saying that'll happen anytime soon though. For one, the new game would have to become a mass hit with a larger audience still (and measured in a way that is comparable to WoW). For another, it would have to attract a sufficient number of current WoW players in a way that also keeps them. That I don't see anytime soon. WAR and AoC proved there's a lot of people willing to look, while also proving their expectations are much higher than when we jumped onto DAoC.
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Malakili
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Posts: 10596
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As far as I am concerned people just need to stop trying to beat WoW in the first place. It isn't going to happen. It is so far off the charts compared to every single other MMO ever released that the comparisons are barely worth it. It seems like it has been proven that you aren't going to steal WoW players FROM WoW. Your options are to 1) Get people that don't want WoW anymore or 2) Make a game people are willing to play WITH WoW. This pretty much means WoW clones are in trouble, because you can't "out blizzard" blizzard.
This does not mean you can not make a successful (which for these purposes I am defining as making enough money to continue development and pay all your employees, basically, profit from the game) game like WoW. LOTRO and WAR are both very similar to WoW, but are both viable games.
In terms of future Blizzard MMO projects, I really can't see why they would bother risking what they have going for them. There is no reason to NOT focus on WoW. Anything that destabilizes what they have has to be seen as a bad marketing decision. I mean, sure, World of Starcraft or World of Diablo (for lack of better terms to use to describe these potential games), would have a lot of interest in them, but I couldn't see them adding an appreciable amount of players unless they think people are really going to pay for more than one account across the games. Sure, people might switch, and you might get a few new players, but considering all the costs of creating and maintaining an MMO, its hard to think a second Blizzard MMO would pay for itself.
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UnSub
Contributor
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Actually, history is full of outsiders coming in and redefining the metric of success. This isn't the glorified david vs goliath scenario. It's more that Blizzard's biggest risk is that they've got almost everyone that wants this type of game and that everyone else present and future goes to a completely different type of game altogether.
It's for this kind of reason I think that the first good current gen MMO that goes onto a console has a great chance of surpassing that 1 million player mark without really trying. The trick in the MMO market right now is to grow it in a different direction rather than try to steal market share off of WoW. I can say this with the full authority of someone who posts on a MMO forum. 
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Ratman_tf
Terracotta Army
Posts: 3818
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I think a lot of it has to do with trust in the Dev Team. If I feel a dev team has a chance to fix stuff, I'll stay with a game much longer. If (like in SWG/CoH/Necron) I feel like they're merely adding grind/nerfs or making changes that don't improve the game, I'll leave, but keep checking in to see if stuff gets better. If (AO/WaR/AoC) I think they're disconnected fucktards who have no fucking clue, I'm gone forever.
I've got to say, a prime reason why I wasn't interested in WAR or AOC is because of the development teams. I put my time into DAOC and AO, but this time around, I had a much more appealing alternative.
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 "What I'm saying is you should make friends with a few catasses, they smell funny but they're very helpful." -Calantus makes the best of a smelly situation.
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schild
Administrator
Posts: 60350
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Actually, history is full of outsiders coming in and redefining the metric of success. This isn't the glorified david vs goliath scenario. It's more that Blizzard's biggest risk is that they've got almost everyone that wants this type of game and that everyone else present and future goes to a completely different type of game altogether.
It's for this kind of reason I think that the first good current gen MMO that goes onto a console has a great chance of surpassing that 1 million player mark without really trying. The trick in the MMO market right now is to grow it in a different direction rather than try to steal market share off of WoW. I _promise_ I haven't been saying this for nearly 4 years.
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mnm
Guest
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If, in some alternate universe, the WoW we got at its inception was released today to compete against what we now know to be the current WoW, it would fail, just like Warhammer and AoC. I don't believe for a second that Blizzard could repeat their success with a new MMO just because they are blizzard or that they have learned some secret of turning games instantly into gold, fanbois of the company or not. That being said, I think part of what has kept them successfull is that they *know* this and plan to hold onto WoW and milk it for everything its got before they ever dare try to make lightning strike twice.
WOTLK WoW couldn't triumph over WoW 1.0? I would think the better defined PvP alone would ensure WoTLK's viability vs WoW 1.0 Also the pve encounters in WOTLK are better designed. If they came out at the same time neither game would've grown as fast as WoW by itself but I can't believe WOTLK wouldn't take the crown. If you said the next MMO Blizzard creates won't do as well as WoW I could agree with you in certain cases. Lineage 2 did not do as well as Lineage. Sequels to past MMOs in general follow the same trend of having an initially better growth rate than the MMO they are based on but in the end they don't sell as well. If Blizzard makes a game with the majority of mechanics greatly different from WoW, doesn't involve the WoW lore itself, and puts everything together in a way that makes the game fun then I think their next MMO could even sell better than the old WoW when you consider internet technology is increasing in proliferation thanks to wireless advances.
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ashrik
Terracotta Army
Posts: 631
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WOTLK WoW couldn't triumph over WoW 1.0? That's exactly what he's sayingHe's saying that WoTLK would crush WoW 1.0. Fixed, for literacy and understanding?
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« Last Edit: December 29, 2008, 10:58:42 AM by ashrik »
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Senses
Terracotta Army
Posts: 280
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Actually that wasn't what I was saying at all. Rather than explain what I considered to be a straightforward post I will simply say read it over one more time for some clarity.
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eldaec
Terracotta Army
Posts: 11844
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I'm losing track of who is green, who is double green, and who is down in the sarchasm.
This thread is so much fun.
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"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson "Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
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