Warhammer Hits 800k Players

[eldaec]

A lot of people are also underestimating the power of people who just stay subscribed to shit they don't play.

I expect WAR numbers will keep rising into early next year.

Comparisons with AoC are flawed. We aren't talking about women doing less damage than men and similar outright buggy stupid shit - the problems here are more subtle.  Long term I think just under 500k subs feels where this is headed.

[Nebu]

Warhammer Online - Bets for Dec 2008

Angry.bob: 5 million
Shapechanger: 3,5 million
Datagod: 1,8 million
Modern Angel: 1,5 million
Darniaq: 1.5 million
Trouble: 1,5 million
Arthur Parker: 1 million
Falconeer: 1 million
Riggswolfe: 1 million
Evangolis: 930k
Simond: 750k
Sairon: 700k
Damijin: 650k
Soln: 500k
Comstar: 450k
Eldaec: 350k
Waylander: 350k
HaemishM: 350k
WindUpAtheist: 325k
HRose: 300k
Strazos: 236k
Unsub: 190k
Lantyssa: 175k
Stray: 150k
Xuri: 150k
Cheddar: 45k

Betting ended on January 30th 2007.

This is going to be interesting.  I still think the market for a title like this is in the 150-250k bracket, but time will tell.  Hell, I'm the idiot that said WoW couldn't sustain more than 500k subs in North America.  Shows you what I know.

[Nevermore]

What sort of bizzaro world do Mythic live in where they can count people playing their free launch month as subscribers, anyway?

At least they aren't trying to brag about how many characters have been created.

[UnSub]

Based on Nebu's post, I think the winner of that poll might just be ... HRose.   

[Nebu]

Based on Nebu's post, I think the winner of that poll might just be ... HRose.   

Sweet sweet irony.   

[Tmon]

What sort of bizzaro world do Mythic live in where they can count people playing their free launch month as subscribers, anyway?

A world where a player has to subscribe to get the "free" month.   that they  haven't actually been billed doesn't change the fact that they have an active subscription.

[deadlyanteater]

250-300k by christmas?

[ghost]

What sort of bizzaro world do Mythic live in where they can count people playing their free launch month as subscribers, anyway?

At least they aren't trying to brag about how many characters have been created.

That might actually be better spin, as many have tried most, if not all, of the professions to figure out if that was the problem. 

[GoodIdea]

Most people will not jump ship as fast as you guys. Or they will keep subscribing and come back.

I think that everything that is wrong with WAR is fixable. The premise of the game is great and still has great promise. Open rvr imo is great and no other game has it really.

The question is: Will they fix it? Will they live up to their promise of "War is everywhere?"

Because right now on my server, WAR is virtually NO WHERE because destruction doesn't even have to participate in zone control to actively (passively?) defend it. What kind of pvp game allows you to AFK to be effective? In any case, until they allow us to assault their fortresses and cities, there will be virtually no rvr on Azazel because there is no point for destruction until zone flipping is more easily possible again.

[Tuncal]

Your quote agrees with his assertion.

No it doesn't.  He's saying 1.2m sold to retailers by 30th Sept but the press release says 1.5m was sold to retailers by Sept 19th.

Is it too far fetched to assume those missing 300k are units that have been returned to EA by the retailers? That would be the only scenario that would match all their press releases.

[Strazos]

I'm still liking my 236k guess.


Tank, tank tank!

[IainC]

Your quote agrees with his assertion.

No it doesn't.  He's saying 1.2m sold to retailers by 30th Sept but the press release says 1.5m was sold to retailers by Sept 19th.

Is it too far fetched to assume those missing 300k are units that have been returned to EA by the retailers? That would be the only scenario that would match all their press releases.

It's also possible that the 1.5M number is worldwide (as of the date of that press release) while the 1.2M number is NA boxes to date (EA is not the publisher in the EU). I don't have any personal info other than what is already out there about the numbers sold or the subs levels - and if I did I certainly wouldn't be able to share it - so that's just a guess on my part.

[Arthur_Parker]

Your quote agrees with his assertion.

No it doesn't.  He's saying 1.2m sold to retailers by 30th Sept but the press release says 1.5m was sold to retailers by Sept 19th.

Is it too far fetched to assume those missing 300k are units that have been returned to EA by the retailers? That would be the only scenario that would match all their press releases.

It's also possible that the 1.5M number is worldwide (as of the date of that press release) while the 1.2M number is NA boxes to date (EA is not the publisher in the EU). I don't have any personal info other than what is already out there about the numbers sold or the subs levels - and if I did I certainly wouldn't be able to share it - so that's just a guess on my part.

It's also possible that I'm a sentient banana.  Ok, maybe, the 300k were returned from the retailers, however that would mean they were returning them while the game was number one or about number four in the top ten sales charts.

But there's no way I'm swallowing the line that the Sept 15th 1.5m was worldwide and the Sept 30th 1.2m is NA boxes, that's totally illogical because you have 800,000k "current users".  If Europe is almost 50%, (40% or whatever) of worldwide sales and NA sales are 1.2m, then what you are really saying is that there was about 2m boxes WAR sold to end users worldwide by Sept 30th.  If that was true, then Mark Jacobs would have rang each of us up personally, just to make to sure we knew about it.  Also, again, 800,000 current users.

edit:typo

[Simond]

Warhammer Online - Bets for Dec 2008

Angry.bob: 5 million
Shapechanger: 3,5 million
Datagod: 1,8 million
Modern Angel: 1,5 million
Darniaq: 1.5 million
Trouble: 1,5 million
Arthur Parker: 1 million
Falconeer: 1 million
Riggswolfe: 1 million
Evangolis: 930k
Simond: 750k
Sairon: 700k
Damijin: 650k
Soln: 500k
Comstar: 450k
Eldaec: 350k
Waylander: 350k
HaemishM: 350k
WindUpAtheist: 325k
HRose: 300k
Strazos: 236k
Unsub: 190k
Lantyssa: 175k
Stray: 150k
Xuri: 150k
Cheddar: 45k

Betting ended on January 30th 2007.

This is going to be interesting.  I still think the market for a title like this is in the 150-250k bracket, but time will tell.  Hell, I'm the idiot that said WoW couldn't sustain more than 500k subs in North America.  Shows you what I know.

Wow, did I under-estimate Mythics ineptitude or what?

[Azazel]

And if that were true, there would be 400k people who had bought the game and not registered yet---which makes no sense.

You have never bought a game and then not opened it?

I've got 3 unopened copies. Waiting for the game to not become shit or to get sick of wotlk.

[UnSub]

Are there retailers who might buy a box from EA only to resell it to another distributor? That might account for the large number of boxes that have been bought but not activated.

Alternatively: Blizzard bought up a ton of WAR boxes for giggles.

[Ratman_tf]

You know, Mythic was dinking around with PvP, RvR and population imbalance years after DAOC launched. They still hadn't fixed pop imbalance by the time I cancelled my subscription. I don't expect them to get around to the same issues in WAR in any kind of timely manner. maybe they never will.

[Shatter]

Most people will not jump ship as fast as you guys. Or they will keep subscribing and come back.

I think that everything that is wrong with WAR is fixable. The premise of the game is great and still has great promise. Open rvr imo is great and no other game has it really.

The question is: Will they fix it? Will they live up to their promise of "War is everywhere?"

Because right now on my server, WAR is virtually NO WHERE because destruction doesn't even have to participate in zone control to actively (passively?) defend it. What kind of pvp game allows you to AFK to be effective? In any case, until they allow us to assault their fortresses and cities, there will be virtually no rvr on Azazel because there is no point for destruction until zone flipping is more easily possible again.

I think this pretty much sums it up IMO.  The game is in good shape but they need to make the steps to really make RvR fun, constant and rewarding.  They understand what the players want/need but as to whether or not they can fix it and do it timely is another thing altogether.  They have my dollar until end of 2008 to get things fixed and in the meantime Im having fun rolling alts and trying different classes, but Id prefer to be T4 RvRing more. 

[Bismallah]

350k-450k is a good estimate, I'd like to see my server post WotLK before I made any bets, my guess = ghost town. WotLK will definitely put a hurtin' on the WAR player base. WAR will always be a niche game and it's market will always be good enough to maintain attention from Mythic, just like DAOC.

Hell, most people I know just went back to DAOC because they hate WoW with a passion. Why? I have no idea, but whatever floats their boat. It's funny, on that note, most WoW players just put up their hands and say "meh, WAR is ok, but not my cup of tea" whereas the WAR players will say "omfg WoW sucks so bad, go back to your kiddie game and noob pvp arena/bg/rawr-i'm-mad-for-no-reason". It's comical in a way, but sad in another that someone would have so much hate just for a game <shrug>.

I blame rap music.

[fuser]

I've got 3 unopened copies. Waiting for the game to not become shit or to get sick of wotlk.

I returned my unopened copy. So 1,499,999,999 ?

[Grimwell]

A quick note about "subscribers" during the first free month for those of you counting. It's not unusual for people to hand over full subscription and CC information during the "Free" time. It's not unusual at all for some folks to do that, and you end up authorized to charge them. They are, in effect, subscribers.

[ISawDivinity]

A quick note about "subscribers" during the first free month for those of you counting. It's not unusual for people to hand over full subscription and CC information during the "Free" time. It's not unusual at all for some folks to do that, and you end up authorized to charge them. They are, in effect, subscribers.

You had to provide CC info for the free month of WAR. It's the only reason I paid for a second month, I didn't cancel in time. I suspect quite a few people did the same.

[Mrbloodworth]

A quick note about "subscribers" during the first free month for those of you counting. It's not unusual for people to hand over full subscription and CC information during the "Free" time. It's not unusual at all for some folks to do that, and you end up authorized to charge them. They are, in effect, subscribers.

I do not think i have ever subscribed to an MMO where i did not have to enter this info to "Claim" my free month, you can't play with out giving it up. (Excluding F2P games and whatnot, talking about mainstream AAA, monthly ones).

[ISawDivinity]

So before the game launches they announce 1.5 million copies sent to retailers.

The 10Q said they had sold 1.2 million in the quarter which ended Sep. 30th.

So either:

1) Someone is lying - quite possible

2) Retailers sent back 300,000 copies in the twelve days after release - highly unlikely

3) The 10Q is reporting actual sales numbers reported by retailers - doubtful they sold that many copies in twelve days but I suppose it's /possible/. Does anyone know how the direct downloads are handled? Do the companies buy a block of keys or is it done one at a time as purchases come in?

The 800,000 players number is pretty vague but it clearly includes data possibly as recent as Oct. 30. If the 1.2 million figure is indeed actual sales numbers that is a REALLY high attrition rate.

[Ratman_tf]

Hell, most people I know just went back to DAOC because they hate WoW with a passion. Why? I have no idea, but whatever floats their boat. It's funny, on that note, most WoW players just put up their hands and say "meh, WAR is ok, but not my cup of tea" whereas the WAR players will say "omfg WoW sucks so bad, go back to your kiddie game and noob pvp arena/bg/rawr-i'm-mad-for-no-reason". It's comical in a way, but sad in another that someone would have so much hate just for a game <shrug>.

I blame rap music.

People like to bitch. Like the fat middle aged soccer mom who snaps her cap over some coffee monkey getting her latte order wrong.

[Slyfeind]

People like to bitch. Like the fat middle aged soccer mom who snaps her cap over some coffee monkey getting her latte order wrong.

People also get sick of hearing how awesome WoW is.

[Nija]

A quick note about "subscribers" during the first free month for those of you counting. It's not unusual for people to hand over full subscription and CC information during the "Free" time. It's not unusual at all for some folks to do that, and you end up authorized to charge them. They are, in effect, subscribers.

Yeah, that's a mistake I made with WAR. I've already corrected that mistake.

[Ratman_tf]

People like to bitch. Like the fat middle aged soccer mom who snaps her cap over some coffee monkey getting her latte order wrong.

People also get sick of hearing how awesome WoW is.

Stop hanging out with WoW nerds.  

[Arthur_Parker]

1) Someone is lying - quite possible

You know maybe they did actually sell 1.2m boxes, considering they said "hey guys, we sold 1.2m boxes".

Meanwhile back on the official forums vn boards.

Linky

Folks,

The VN is the VN. It has some great posters and some great posers. It's got hardworking mods and is an interesting community made up all of sorts of people not all or whom mean what they say, say what they mean or not all of them are downright mean. It no more represents the entire WAR community than it did the DAoC community. As people remember who were here then, it was a pretty tough crowd back then too and we heard a lot of the same stuff (epic failure, Mythic will be out of business in a few weeks, etc.) then we are hearing now though it was a lot nastier. It is though a useful source of information and intel thanks to the good posters (and not just the people who say that WAR ROCKS! or stuff like that) who do care about WAR and want to make it better. VN is a community that is part of the WAR Community but it is not perfect nor is it always right just as Mythic isn't always right.

If things go as expected, I'll have a lot more to talk about in a few days.

Oh, and as some of the threads indicated, our CEO called out our numbers a few times during last week's earnings call. That's why I've been so silent on them. Couldn't steal the thunder from our CEO, not a nice thing to do and not great for the old job security thing. Our sales are absolutely fabulous and as JR said, our conversion rate is not only high but it is higher than it was during our DAoC days by a nice margin. And as I've said before, we couldn't say that if it wasn't true unless we wanted to possibly spend some time at one of our country's finer penal establishments and I have no intention of ever doing that.

Mark

I don't remember DAoC merging servers, but time will tell on sub figures.

[Nebu]

When VN is the home of your "official" forums, you deserve what you get.  Far too high S/N and far too many blind fanboi eyes.  Mythic needs the cold, hard truth about the state of things.  It's a time to put ego aside. 

[Fordel]

DaoC didn't officially merge severs no, they just linked them all together and merged the RVR specific portions. Totally different! 

[ISawDivinity]

1) Someone is lying - quite possible

You know maybe they did actually sell 1.2m boxes, considering they said "hey guys, we sold 1.2m boxes".

Except they didn't say to whom they were sold.

If you're suggesting they sold 1.2 million boxes at the consumer level in twelve days you're a liar.

[Grimwell]

A quick note about "subscribers" during the first free month for those of you counting. It's not unusual for people to hand over full subscription and CC information during the "Free" time. It's not unusual at all for some folks to do that, and you end up authorized to charge them. They are, in effect, subscribers.

You had to provide CC info for the free month of WAR. It's the only reason I paid for a second month, I didn't cancel in time. I suspect quite a few people did the same.

Odd. My sub for WAR automatically shut down after the first month without me doing a thing. Even if I did have to give them a card (which I don't remember) there had to be some "Yes charge me!" step, because I didn't take it, or do the "No, really, thanks... it's not you it's me" to make it stop.

[Hayduke]

It's pointless to look for inconsistencies in the numbers they release.  They can only fudge the numbers once.  The real test is if they ever release numbers again.

[Arthur_Parker]

If you're suggesting they sold 1.2 million boxes at the consumer level in twelve days you're a liar.

Math is hard.