Diablo III Wild Speculation and Rumor Mongering Abounds

[Ironwood]

Diablo was fairly succesful.

[sickrubik]

4:12PM Morhaime: Target Q2 launch for Diablo 3.

http://wow.joystiq.com/2012/02/09/activision-blizzard-investor-call-live-blog/

[Paelos]

Awesome!  

4:13PM Blizzard is really focused on e-sports and StarCraft 2.

Uh, ok.   

4:17PM Morhaime: "Pleased with the [WoW] marketing results in Q4.

Huh? 

[Ingmar]

Wow, 1 million annual pass sales?

Re: Q2: I TOLD YOU SO. Ahem.

[Sheepherder]

The operative word there would be "marketing."  It was indeed a hell of a marketing campaign.

[Soulflame]

Q2 of what year?

[Paelos]

I am also kinda shocked they sold a million annual passes. Then again, I can't remember what the actual play portion of that was in terms of revenue.

[Velorath]

Is it really surprising they got people to pay what, $144 (assuming two 6 month subs at $12 a month) for a year of WoW, beta for the next expansion, a mount (the kind of thing that people have paid $20 for before), and Diablo 3?  How many of those million people likely would have been subbed for a year anyway?

[Lakov_Sanite]

I'm honestly surprised it was only a million.  If you were already playing wow it's a hell of a deal

[Miasma]

It's going to take away the revenue of one million box sales of Diablo 3 later though.

[Segoris]

I'd still guess that the revenue from subscription fees for X number of months per person that would have otherwise been cancelled when D3 released or earlier outweighs the loss of the box sale - as long as D3 releases more than 4 months prior to the end of the annual pass completion date.

Also, I wonder how many people did the annual pass and have moved over to SWTOR that are still stuck with their WoW sub? It sounds dumb, and likely a very low number, but any one of those people also help combat any potential loss (and are actually a huge profit if they're subbed but not even playing) from the loss of a box sale.

[Malakili]

I'd still guess that the revenue from subscription fees for X number of months per person that would have otherwise been cancelled when D3 released or earlier outweighs the loss of the box sale - as long as D3 releases more than 4 months prior to the end of the annual pass completion date.

Also, I wonder how many people did the annual pass and have moved over to SWTOR that are still stuck with their WoW sub? It sounds dumb, and likely a very low number, but any one of those people also help combat any potential loss (and are actually a huge profit if they're subbed but not even playing) from the loss of a box sale.

Not to mention that Blizzard wants to their long term income from D3 to be from the real money AH, by getting people in the door "for free" if they are a WoW player anyway, they probably hope to cash in long term.

[Segoris]

Good point. Which also makes me wonder if Bliz will go with giving away some free money to people who haven't used the AH or new players at any point to get them used to using that AH (doubtful at release since we probably would have heard something about this). Giving people $1-$5 for the AH included with a box cost would actually be a damn good hook for all the new fish I think.

[Yegolev]

Maybe I need to wait a year or so and get a passcode from a box of Froot Loops.

[Rendakor]

Also, I wonder how many people did the annual pass and have moved over to SWTOR that are still stuck with their WoW sub? It sounds dumb, and likely a very low number, but any one of those people also help combat any potential loss (and are actually a huge profit if they're subbed but not even playing) from the loss of a box sale.

I'll admit I'm one of these. When the annual pass came out I was still raiding seriously in WoW, so it was a no brainer. Since then our guild has fallen apart for a variety of reasons (SWTOR, burnout, out of game drama, and DS being really easy) and I really only log in every few days to check my auctions or chat with friends now. So it goes.

[Sjofn]

I'm one of those people too.  I mean, I still plan to kick around in WoW some, but I haven't actually logged in since December, which I ... did not expect, to be frank.

[caladein]

I'm still logging in just to raid, but I've been doing that this whole expansion for the most part.

[apocrypha]

My SWTOR levelling pal is one of those people too. He logs in about once every 2-3 weeks, wanders about aimlessly for half an hour then logs back out again.

[eldaec]

It's going to take away the revenue of one million box sales of Diablo 3 later though.

You're assuming all 1million were going to buy D3, which is unlikely, as well as assuming all 1 million were going to stay subbed to wow for a year.

I also guess D3 is primarily seen as an RMT experiment within blizzard, so I expect the box will get discounted hard and early.

[Velorath]

It's going to take away the revenue of one million box sales of Diablo 3 later though.

You're assuming all 1million were going to buy D3, which is unlikely, as well as assuming all 1 million were going to stay subbed to wow for a year.

I also guess D3 is primarily seen as an RMT experiment within blizzard, so I expect the box will get discounted hard and early.

If I got a free $60 game that I never had any intention of buying, chances are I'd probably sell it in which case Blizzard would still be out a sale.  Also, people who weren't interested enough in the game to buy it don't seem like an audience that's likely to spend real money on in-game items for it.

[eldaec]

If they aren't banking on the belief that people want to play an RMT-your-items-game *but just don't know it yet*, then the entire project makes no sense.

[Malakili]

It's going to take away the revenue of one million box sales of Diablo 3 later though.

You're assuming all 1million were going to buy D3, which is unlikely, as well as assuming all 1 million were going to stay subbed to wow for a year.

I also guess D3 is primarily seen as an RMT experiment within blizzard, so I expect the box will get discounted hard and early.

If I got a free $60 game that I never had any intention of buying, chances are I'd probably sell it in which case Blizzard would still be out a sale.  Also, people who weren't interested enough in the game to buy it don't seem like an audience that's likely to spend real money on in-game items for it.

I don't expect you'll be able to sell this copy, it probably will just appear on their battle.net account associated with the same WoW account, or whatever.

[Merusk]

It's a digital copy so that's exactly what it does.  Just like the beta accesses are no longer e-mailed codes you can pass around.   

[Ingmar]

I also guess D3 is primarily seen as an RMT experiment within blizzard, so I expect the box will get discounted hard and early.

Blizzard has always been the very slowest of all companies to cut their box prices, I don't forsee this one dipping below list until the inevitable expansion comes out.

[Malakili]

I also guess D3 is primarily seen as an RMT experiment within blizzard, so I expect the box will get discounted hard and early.

Blizzard has always been the very slowest of all companies to cut their box prices, I don't forsee this one dipping below list until the inevitable expansion comes out.

Diablo 3: Lord of Expansion - 2 new classes and a hastily cobbled together new act ahoy!

[ajax34i]

It's going to take away the revenue of one million box sales of Diablo 3 later though.

No it won't, they'll just release a very tempting Collector's Edition and the 1 million will pay for it despite already having the free standard box.

[caladein]

They already covered that in the FAQ (emphasis mine):

What if I purchase the Diablo III Collector's Edition?

If you decide to purchase the Diablo III Collector's Edition when it's available, and then choose to add your Collector's Edition license key to the Battle.net account associated with your existing World of Warcraft Annual Pass promotion, you will receive all of the benefits associated with the Collector's Edition, plus receive four months of World of Warcraft game time which is eligible towards your 12-month subscription commitment. After you purchase the Diablo III Collector's Edition you just need to input the product key into the Battle.net account associated with your World of Warcraft 12-month commitment and that account will then receive the next 4 months of World of Warcraft game time for free. For example, if you already had a month of game time on the associated World of Warcraft account when you input your Diablo III Collector's Edition product key, it would then be 5 months until your next subscription payment was due.

[Mrbloodworth]

So, ............ when does this come out?

[Fabricated]

"Seriously folks, please stop unsubbing from WoW. We're going to get branded if we slip under 10 million."

[Merusk]

Damn this game.. I'm actually enjoying it, unlike the last 2.   The classes have all been fun, even when some of them weren't my thing.  The banner system is pretty cool, too and the multiplayer (when it's not laggy as hell.) is easy to hop in to without feeling any real commitment.

Achievements? Yes please. Trying hard to finish out the last few I need just to get the "Overachiever" sigil and banner style.

The beta has flipped me from "meh, I'll see what this beta's like" to "Damn.. I might just buy this."

Which means you hardcore Diablo fans will probably hate it.

[Selby]

Which means you hardcore Diablo fans will probably hate it.

This hardcore Diablo fan didn't like Diablo II, so take that with a grain of salt.  I wish I was in the beta so I could see if it was worth it ;-)

[Merusk]

Which means you hardcore Diablo fans will probably hate it.

This hardcore Diablo fan didn't like Diablo II, so take that with a grain of salt.  I wish I was in the beta so I could see if it was worth it ;-)

Hm.. good to know, I suppose.  Though this feels a lot like Torchlight to me, which the D2 fans around here didn't like.

I'd let you borrow mine but being linked to all Blizzard accounts and an authenticator that's just not possible these days.

[Malakili]

Which means you hardcore Diablo fans will probably hate it.

This hardcore Diablo fan didn't like Diablo II, so take that with a grain of salt.  I wish I was in the beta so I could see if it was worth it ;-)

Hm.. good to know, I suppose.  Though this feels a lot like Torchlight to me, which the D2 fans around here didn't like.

I'd let you borrow mine but being linked to all Blizzard accounts and an authenticator that's just not possible these days.

Is that right?  I know some people didn't feel like Torchlight didn't have the long term appeal of D2 due to the fact that it didn't have a closed server system or multiplayer at all for that matter.  But I don't recall D2 fans saying they didn't like the game in principle, more that they wished it had more features and was a bit more fleshed out.

Diablo 3 definitely has all those things, while having some of the quality of life stuff that made Torchlight feel like a more modern take on the genre.  Overall, I'm quite pleased with D3 so far based on what I have seen.  Huge D2 player, also logged something like 100 hours in Torchlight which isn't an insane amount, but a goodly sum at least.   

[Hutch]

Also, I wonder how many people did the annual pass and have moved over to SWTOR that are still stuck with their WoW sub? It sounds dumb, and likely a very low number, but any one of those people also help combat any potential loss (and are actually a huge profit if they're subbed but not even playing) from the loss of a box sale.

I wonder how many people started playing SWTOR just in time to get counted as one of the 1.7 million subscribers, but quit before they reached the end of their first 30 days, and *then* paid Blizzard for the annual pass.

No one else? Just me?

[Merusk]

Is that right?  I know some people didn't feel like Torchlight didn't have the long term appeal of D2 due to the fact that it didn't have a closed server system or multiplayer at all for that matter.  But I don't recall D2 fans saying they didn't like the game in principle, more that they wished it had more features and was a bit more fleshed out.

Yeah some felt that way but I know that at least one or two (and I think Schild was one of them) said Torchlight just failed them in every way.  I think Yegolev was another but I could be mistaken.


ed: Beta Patch since yesterday when I played.  Character & Achieve wipe and skill runes are now in the game.