WoW Patch... Fanboys Heads Explode

[HRose]

In my opinion there's no match between EQ2 or WoW.

You're absolutely right. I guess I'll be seeing you in EQ2.

We'll see. I'm ready to bet that I'll see you in WoW :)
And with you, everyone else now snobbing the game.

[Nebu]

We'll see. I'm ready to bet that I'll see you in WoW :)
And with you, everyone else now snobbing the game.

I may have to admit that you're right, until then I'll just be bitter.  

At this point, I find myself playing games to spend time with friends that I know/have met.  It seems to me that with the sheer lack of anything interesting to play that mmog's have been relegated to an "IRC with pictures" status for me.  If I do end up in WoW, I'm sure it will be to join some gaming friends.  

Given a choice though...

[Morfiend]

In my opinion there's no match between EQ2 or WoW.

You're absolutely right. I guess I'll be seeing you in EQ2.

I hate SOE, Fuck SOE. I hate EQ. EQ Sucks. Fuck EQ.... Ohhhhh EQ2 Shinnneeeeyyyyy....

[Merusk]

I don't know, it sounds like that could be the design philosophy for WoW or CoH.  You seem to be reading into everything and coming up with the most negative interpretation of every word possible.  Maybe he deserves that from EQ1, but I don't think it is a fair reading of the text.

As a quick aside, since I wasn't able to address this earlier.  You're right, I'm taking it all in a very negative light.  I remember well the days of Aradune and Abashi. That was before SOE owned them. I see no reason to blame that bullshit on SOE, and every reason to blame it on VI, who is now Sigil games.


Now on to the current topic.

One of WoWs biggest advantages is that EQ is finally on it's long awaited death spiral, with WoW being best situated to take advantage. I have never seen any other MMOG garner the attention that WoW is getting on the various EQ boards. Not even close.

Among the hardcore gamers, you're absolutly correct.  The less hardcore I know aren't interested in WOW, but are attracted to EQ2 because it's a familiar gaming world.  Go figgure.

  Right now which will 'be the biggest' is all speculation. Bliz has a huge fanbase, yes, but how many will pay a monthly fee? This one will be the biggest sticking factor. Plenty of 'pre-reviews' out there on Amazon EBgames, etc saying "OMG there's a fee? Bliz u suck" or the like. Fewer than the glowing reviews, yes, but you can't take a good polling from it.

 
  However, if you're going to 'factor in' the Korean market, then you're missing one important discussion point.  The games we all thought had decent leveling curves made THEIR eyes bleed because they were pussy-level easy.  WOW doesn't have "hardcore" mode. Hell it doesn't even have the basics for Hero-level content yet.  Bliz states they'll put that in 'after release' which means 2+ months out. Your Korean market left after they maxed out before the first month, folks.

I won't be surprised if WOW *does* wind up being bigger than EQ2.  I don't expect it to be larger than EQ was at it's peak, though. While the genre may be expanding, I don't believe it's growing as fast as some predict.  Plenty of folks still maintaining two accounts for different games out there, hardcore and casual alike.  CoH and EQ being the dual subscription I'm seeing the most of.

[personman]

EQ2 could replace textures for many years to come and still be an attractive competitive product.

Quoting Haemish:

Everything looks like it shambled out of a fucking wax museum.

If your 3d artists are mediocre, as these guys are, if they cannot imbue the art with a sense of style, the models will be bland suckage. Numbers (i.e. math and high-level abstract technical shit) is not pretty.

In my opinion there's no match between EQ2 or WoW.

So basically your thought is that graphics alone will make the difference, and you appeal to Haemish's authority that EQ2's artists are too incompetent to make that leap.

Perhaps.

[schild]

In my opinion there's no match between EQ2 or WoW.

You're absolutely right. I guess I'll be seeing you in EQ2.

I hate SOE, Fuck SOE. I hate EQ. EQ Sucks. Fuck EQ.... Ohhhhh EQ2 Shinnneeeeyyyyy....

If you can find a single place where I said any of those - I'd be impressed. More than that, do I need a syringe the size of my pinkie to get it into your head that EQ2 has nothing to do with EQ except for the setting?

It's like comparing Empire Strikes Back with the fucking Star Wars Christmas special.

[Sable Blaze]

EQ2 is more closely related to EQOA than it is EQlive. That's a good thing, too.

Which game will garner more fans or last longer or whatthehellever isn't something you're going to be able to make a call on at this time. When it comes down to it, the only way to really know is play the thing and make your own decisions.

I'm not a Warcraft fan. I couldn't care less about the Warcraft universe and have no background knowledge of it at all. I don't have confidence in Blizzard's ability to balance their way out of a wet paper sack or even correct basic technical problems in gameplay (that's D2 playing experience talking). However, I do have friends that are gung-ho on WoW. So...I'll probably be giving it a look. Whether I stay or not, I have no clue. But I will look.

Same with EQ2. I'll be giving it a look as well if/when it ships. Although I can't stand the thought of EQlive anymore, I did like EQOA quite a bit (community notwithstanding) and I'm willing to give EQ2 a chance on that basis. Again, I don't know how long I'll stay, but I will give it a chance.

[ahoythematey]

 However, if you're going to 'factor in' the Korean market, then you're missing one important discussion point.  The games we all thought had decent leveling curves made THEIR eyes bleed because they were pussy-level easy.  WOW doesn't have "hardcore" mode. Hell it doesn't even have the basics for Hero-level content yet.  Bliz states they'll put that in 'after release' which means 2+ months out. Your Korean market left after they maxed out before the first month, folks.

I myself wouldn't be so trusting in that assessment, since the leveling curve in D2 is next-to-nothing and the Koreans still invade the US servers en masse since apparently their own realm servers are taxed heavily(or God knows why they really seem to prefer the US realms).  They had been doing that from almost Day One up until last november when I stopped playing D2, and for all I know they are still a significant contribution to the realm population.  I would suspect that if anything was going to prevent the korean players from being a significant part of the worldwide subscribership, it would be that Korea itself is home to a fucking boatload of MMOs.  Understand, though, that I consider even that to be a big "If".

EDIT:  I had some decent fun with my time in EQ:OA.  Mind you, it was a rather barren world having been beta, but the only significant complaint I had about the game was one that is easily remedied with a keyboard.  IF, I say IF, EQ2 plays similarly to that, then I may just have to give it a try.

[Merusk]

 However, if you're going to 'factor in' the Korean market, then you're missing one important discussion point.  The games we all thought had decent leveling curves made THEIR eyes bleed because they were pussy-level easy.  WOW doesn't have "hardcore" mode. Hell it doesn't even have the basics for Hero-level content yet.  Bliz states they'll put that in 'after release' which means 2+ months out. Your Korean market left after they maxed out before the first month, folks.

I myself wouldn't be so trusting in that assessment, since the leveling curve in D2 is next-to-nothing and the Koreans still invade the US servers en masse since apparently their own realm servers are taxed heavily(or God knows why they really seem to prefer the US realms).  

Yeah, but I've been told they play Hardcore mode or are PKz with looting, which is why I'm not sure you can count on them as WoW audience.  No hardocore and no looting.

[Sky]

Your Korean market left after they maxed out before the first month, folks.

Well, there's one thing going for it.

[El Gallo]

You are too easy on SoE.  SoE is responsible for Planes of Power, Gates of Discord, Lost Dungeons, and Star Wars Galaxies.  3/4 of those were laughably unprofessional, completely unfinished shitfests that any decent company should have been humiliated to put their name on.  The other one (LDoN) was workmanlike in its execution, but also the most bland and unimaginative expansion ever.

I have more faith in the ability of the people who made EQ-Velious to make a good game without the downtime than I do in the guys who made SWG and Luclin+ to make a game that doesn't reek of failure from every pore.   But I could see both of them crashing and burning too :)

[HaemishM]

I agree with SirBruce.

You can fucking quote me on this one. WoW will start out (first 2-3 months) with no more than 200k subscriptions.

EQ2 will start out with between 50k-100k subscriptions.

Both of their sub numbers will remain constant, depending on how long it takes for the hardcore to realize that they need a second account to handle the really hardcore shit solo/duo, or that they need a buffbot/rezbot account for the guild.

My numbers are culled COMPLETELY from my anus. My anus never lies. He tells me funny stories about Swedish cheerleaders. He is All-Seeing.

Vanguard can, is and will be the spiritual successor to all the things that made EQ the most hated popular game on the planet. It will also garner somewhere between 50k-100k subs.

All of these numbers will vary based on stability, because CoH and DAoC showed us stability can trump lack of content any day.

[Dren]

I agree with SirBruce.

You can fucking quote me on this one.

Gotcha!

[SirBruce]

HaemishM should start his own chart.  Then I could demand links to his anus.

Bruce

[MrHat]

HaemishM should start his own chart.  Then I could demand links to his anus.

Bruce

Point Bruce.

[HaemishM]

If I give you links to my anus, will you promise to enter it, shrivel up and fucking die like a good little hamster fucker?

No?

Too bad.

[Rasix]

Would you two just fuck and get it over with?

[Sky]

If I give you links to my anus, will you promise to enter it, shrivel up and fucking die like a good little hamster fucker?

[MrHat]

If I give you links to my anus, will you promise to enter it, shrivel up and fucking die like a good little hamster fucker?

Lemmiwinks!!!

[HRose]

You can fucking quote me on this one.

I already did months ago on my old website :)

I do not think it or WoW will get over EQ numbers, nor do I think any other MMOG will or should in the next 10 years.

Both of their sub numbers will remain constant, depending on how long it takes for the hardcore to realize that they need a second account to handle the really hardcore shit solo/duo, or that they need a buffbot/rezbot account for the guild.

Not for WoW.

[Merusk]

Both of their sub numbers will remain constant, depending on how long it takes for the hardcore to realize that they need a second account to handle the really hardcore shit solo/duo, or that they need a buffbot/rezbot account for the guild.

Not for WoW.

So what's with the bitching on the beta boards? Are there seriously that many sandy pussies, or are those, as I suspect, the Bliz fanbois who are being shouted down by the EQ vets.

  Every argument I've seen since the most recent patch seems to be one of "OMG this game is so hard" "STFU it's still less downtime/easier than EQ" "Easier than EQ" isn't really a metric I'm looking for in a game.
 
The Devs were oddly quiet about it, saying only things like. "We didn't nerf anything." Until a thread I saw at lunch today where Enyo indicated that things were fine on the internal server.  Seems you should be checking the LIVE server first, folks.  Classic EQ Alchemy/ Oak Bark Tannin mistake here.

   Your players aren't usually just makeing shit up when they're saying "this specific thing is broken", folks.  Generalities and large scale whines you can ignore. Large numbers of people saying things like, "My spirit went up but I'm regening LESS mana than before." or "My AC was 400, and now it's 1500 and I'm taking more damage." or "I'm not seeing any damage mitigation between 400 and 450 AC" usually indicate a problem.

I wonder if the recent bitching has hurt WOW's chances of getting people to buy it at release more than helped it.  It's seeing patches go down like this I wonder if an 'no NDA' beta is a good thing.  At least behind the veil of the NDA you can guess the Devs are being proactive and responding intelligently and quickly.   The WoW dev responses I've seen seem snipish and are something, at times, I'd expect from one of us rather than a guy expecting you to pay his mortgage.

[Malderi]

My predictions:

WoW will sell 500k+, probably close to a million, boxed copies in the first few months. When W3 had over a million PRE-ORDERS, you know you have brand loyalty.

It will peak at around 350-400k subscribers (PAYING) in about 3-4 months.

It goes downhill from there to maintain a steady ~200k about a year after release. Why do I say this?

Because Blizzard's strategy of delaying, delaying, delaying until it's good WON'T WORK with patching an MMO.  If there's one thing that has been demonstrated, it's that MMO players are bored easily - but gluttons for punishment. When Blizzard can't spit out content fast enough, people will start leaving for games with t3h n3w sh1ny.

[Tige]

HaemishM should start his own chart. Then I could demand links to his anus.

Or you could send Herbie.

-Tige

[Fargull]

Wow..

Walking into the end of this thread is like the second coming of confessions of a teenage drama queen.

[HaemishM]

My predictions:

WoW will sell 500k+, probably close to a million, boxed copies in the first few months. When W3 had over a million PRE-ORDERS, you know you have brand loyalty.

Repeat after me.

W3 was an RTS, with FREE online play, that requires little to no real commitment on the part of the player, since they can always play single-player and never touch the filth that is B.net.

WoW is an online game, requiring a monthly fee, in a genre that is much less open to new players. It requires an investment in time very unlike a single-player game, as well as being a multiplayer (possibly) group-focused game, in which you cannot avoid the stuttering shitmittens that are Blizzard fanbois.

One of these things is not like the other. You are making the same mistake most of us did when SWG was released, thinking that licensed brand loyalty will overcome these very serious obstacles.

[HRose]

You are making the same mistake most of us did when SWG was released, thinking that licensed brand loyalty will overcome these very serious obstacles.

This is why I believe WoW will be successful. Because even if it still has those problems you pointed like the monthly fee, it still does a wonderful work to fix the issues inside the gameplay, like a perfect newbie experience and accessibility.

This is why my prevision is about 400k in six months. It won't broke the mmorpg standard, but it will max it out.

Remember that CoH reached 190k and WoW has all its qualities and a lot, a lot more.

[schild]

Remember that CoH reached 190k and WoW has all its qualities and a lot, a lot more.

Sweet monkeh, WoW has superheroes? Fuck, sign me up. The only thing they have in common with CoH, according to people in beta, is the goddamn instancing and combat system.

Goddamn, am I glad you don't work in marketing anywhere.

I'm getting dangerously close to getting stabby with fanbois. Hrose, you've been around a long time. Stop believing that any game will save the world.

[HRose]

WoW won't save the world, it will simply be successful. I'm the first to criticize it strongly when we consider the "quality".

Why I cannot have an opinion? I'm just saying that WoW does a lot of good things. These things are about *crucial* problems. If you take a look at the presentation of Lum about MMOGs and the mass market you'll see that WoW goes straight to the point. That's all. WoW solves many accessibility problems both because of the tech and the design. This will make it extremely successful where "extremely successful" stands for "maxing out the success possible in this genre at this point". And I consider it equal to 400k in six months.

What we have to see is how WoW will react *after* the first year. Because I'm a lot more worried about the ability of Blizzard to support and expend the game world.

[MrHat]

Sweet monkeh, WoW has superheroes? Fuck, sign me up. The only thing they have in common with CoH, according to people in beta, is the goddamn instancing and combat system.

I must have missed something, was there more to CoH than instancing and a combat system?

On a side note, I like to follow up dev posts on various games forums, and w/ WoW I'm very reassured that it will be bug free and newbie friendly.  What scares me is that whenever Tigole posts, it smells of EQ.

[Furiously]

What we have to see is how WoW will react *after* the first year. Because I'm a lot more worried about the ability of Blizzard to support and expend the game world.

I'd be worried after the first day myself. They have shown in D2 just how well they support and expend their game worlds.

[HaemishM]

Sweet monkeh, WoW has superheroes? Fuck, sign me up. The only thing they have in common with CoH, according to people in beta, is the goddamn instancing and combat system.

I must have missed something, was there more to CoH than instancing and a combat system?

On a side note, I like to follow up dev posts on various games forums, and w/ WoW I'm very reassured that it will be bug free and newbie friendly.  What scares me is that whenever Tigole posts, it smells of EQ.

Yeah, CoH had super-heroes, which is a whole other fanbase than RTS, Fantasy and Blizzard fans. The dearth of super-heroes games means any computer gamer who is also a large comic fan will be at least mildly interested.

RTS fans won't care about an RPG set in that world, especially not one that requires a subscription fee. Blizzard fans are also used to not paying for something. Diablo is not what I'd consider an RPG, and it really isn't an MMOG-like game. If it smells like EQ, many computer gamers WILL NOT TOUCH IT. These are people who have no interest in MMOG's whatsoever, because even if WoW does all the MMOG-type things well, IT'S STILL AN MMOG.

MMORPG's are a niche of a niche. 200k will be a wildly successful game. There are no more blockbuster MMOG's in the works.

[SirBruce]

Remember that CoH reached 190k and WoW has all its qualities and a lot, a lot more.

You mean 180K?

Bruce

[Rasix]

Remember that CoH reached 190k and WoW has all its qualities and a lot, a lot more.

You mean 180K?

Bruce

Sweet merciful crap, is that really necessary?

[SirBruce]

Remember that CoH reached 190k and WoW has all its qualities and a lot, a lot more.

You mean 180K?

Bruce

Sweet merciful crap, is that really necessary?

I just want to make sure I didn't miss an announcement. :)

Bruce