War

[Fordel]

But the coalition hasn't gotten that PR coup.  Those who already believed MC wasn't neutral see it as confirmation, but it didn't sway anyone who was undecided, and it didn't demoralize MC internally the way that the real thing would have.  A situation was created where MC had *no* choice but to come in on BoB's side (their shipyard systems being attacked, no counter-contracts being offered, everyone making it clear that as far as they were concerned MC was already with BoB).  MC would have gone to great lengths to at least appear neutral, if it had even been an option.  But the direct attacks removed even the possibility of just sitting it out (as they did in the ASCN war, even while the front line was right on their doorstep).

This is where I just simply disagree, I do believe the coalition got what they wanted out of the 'coup'. Confirmation for them is a good thing, it creates polarization and I believe that is the ultimate goal. The whole bit about the train and what not. With us or against us. No fence sitters  . Looking at the 0.0 landscape, who was really undecided about MC one way or the other? Well, who was undecided and mattered.

It was something of a Chicken and Egg scenario. MC says they would be neutral if given the opportunity, but no one believes them neutral enough to give them the opportunity.

It was all a giant If, maybe, could be. Now it's a sure thing. Certainty is easier to deal with.

[Furiously]

In this case no - its a harder thing.

[Verify]

I don't understand the whole MC neutrality debate. It seems rather pointless. From the outset of the campaign it was generally known that we would attempt to destroy MC as part of our campaign to destroy BoB. We never attempted to hire the MC because we planned on taking them down and frankly most of us believe their PVP abilities are vastly over rated. They have been hired against GS 7 times and have not yet had a noticeable impact in any of our operations. In the huge 1v- meat grinder their cap ships sat behind a POS shield and watched as LV and V fleets were slaughtered.

Even before MC's declaration, I am confident the Northern forces had no intention of stopping at BoB and letting MC walk away untouched.

[MahrinSkel]

This is where I just simply disagree, I do believe the coalition got what they wanted out of the 'coup'. Confirmation for them is a good thing, it creates polarization and I believe that is the ultimate goal. The whole bit about the train and what not. With us or against us. No fence sitters  . Looking at the 0.0 landscape, who was really undecided about MC one way or the other? Well, who was undecided and mattered.

It was something of a Chicken and Egg scenario. MC says they would be neutral if given the opportunity, but no one believes them neutral enough to give them the opportunity.

It was all a giant If, maybe, could be. Now it's a sure thing. Certainty is easier to deal with.

A little over-confident maybe?  Hope you have contingency plans for a political meltdown among your northern allies and BoB + Friends being able to focus on you.  Not to mention that if you're depending on your southern friends to hate BoB more than they fear you....don't fail.  Ever.

Yes, it's has certainly removed a lot of uncertainty.  Nobody on the BoB side of the table has *any* doubts about whether we stand or fall with them anymore.

--Dave

[Fordel]

We could argue you *HAVE* to be overconfident to bring the fight to BoB, history does seem to favor them in terms of victories.

Verify does bring up a good point, I did make the assumption that the coalition didn't already decide to take down MC regardless of any perceived neutrality or not. For all I know, Seleene stole someones cookies and they want them back.  Could be as simple as "I never liked those MC guys anyways".

[Endie]

We could argue you *HAVE* to be overconfident to bring the fight to BoB, history does seem to favor them in terms of victories.

Verify does bring up a good point, I did make the assumption that the coalition didn't already decide to take down MC regardless of any perceived neutrality or not. For all I know, Seleene stole someones cookies and they want them back.  Could be as simple as "I never liked those MC guys anyways".

As I said before, I could list plenty of reasons why the coalition would want Bob to be prvoded with territory-holding allies, especially ones like -Y-, Xelas, Rise etc.  But Fix too, come to that.  Everyone loves to make WW2 analogies, so here's one.  Hitler himself stated that Italy's entry into the war was a drain on Germany's resources.  It was another front (two, in time) which needed German resources to defend, instead of a neutral blocking position.  Similarly, had Fix stayed neutral, then that direction would have been safe from threats: one less front.  As it is, Bob have repeatedly had to send massive fleets round their tenants, sometimes two distant ones, in an evening, to shore up defences.

MC are the exception.  They add a lot without requiring additional defensive commitments, due to their location.  But really, the Coalition hiring them to patrol the drone territories or something equally distant was the only safe thing to hire them for, and the price would have been, in Seleene's own words, trillions.  It is a ridiculous idea.

If I were a coalition commander, I would be delighted to see the PvP core of the Bob hegemony being forced to keep up a high operational tempo night after night, week after week, and being committed to territorial defence of their alliance's Rumania, Bulgaria and Italy, instead of the repeated, powerful, destructive and well-timed counter-thrusts which could have utterly demoralised D2, and which they are well capable of.  This geographical dispersion will become the case more and more as the threat on the Southern front grows.

Everyone seems to assume that Bob are late-1944 Germany, looking for a Battle of the Bulge type gamble to drive off one enemy. To me, Bob seem more like 1914-era Germany: surrounded by threats, with a smaller logistical base, but still capable of strategic offensives and with the potential to knock an opponent out if they focus on the right place.

The addition of -Y- strikes me as a dumb Bob move on an amazing scale.  -Y- Leadership grudges aside, presumably they were paid or given territorial promises in order to declare and cause havoc on the enemy's supply lines.  In fact, they served as an example to others of the stupidity of their actions, and as a morale boost for the opposition, as well as drawing several other forces in against them.  Other third-tier alliances will surely have taken note.

[JoeTF]

I lolled.
Seriously Endie, what kind of world you're living on?

[MahrinSkel]

The addition of -Y- strikes me as a dumb Bob move on an amazing scale.  -Y- Leadership grudges aside, presumably they were paid or given territorial promises in order to declare and cause havoc on the enemy's supply lines.  In fact, they served as an example to others of the stupidity of their actions, and as a morale boost for the opposition, as well as drawing several other forces in against them.  Other third-tier alliances will surely have taken note.

The -Y- defection seems to be, at least in the short term, an amazing "perfect storm" of political and military benefit for BoB.  The northern coalition is in disarray, having decamped completely from their failed assault.  RedSwarm's focus has been split, the goonies scenting the blood of an old enemy and chasing *completely* across the map in order to pursue it.  And -Y- doesn't seem to have any plans to actually keep their old territory, already dispersing from it and becoming a guerilla force. one that will significantly reduce the northern capacity to project power.

-Y- stiffens the resolve of the northern coalition's less enthusiastic members only if they are completely and immediately crushed.  If their treason prospers, or even survives, the northern coalition may never put itself back together.  In exchange, RedSwarm has taken BoB's most distant outpost, and that can be traced much more to the assault on FAT than to anything related to -Y-.  I'm sure BoB would be happier if they hadn't given it away like that, and frankly I think it shows the FAT curse continues.  But hardly a body-blow.

--Dave

[Simond]

Except -Y-'s proclaimation of "We're going guerrila" seems to be, at best, reactive. (Example: The Moros - allegedly piloted by an alt of a YouWhat director - that got popped trying to flee with a hold full of BPOs/BPCs & named loot the day after their system started getting camped).

-Y- did not expect the Goons to drop anything and jump halfway across the map to fight them, and they certainly didn't expect it to happen within a couple of hours of what will probably become viewed as -Y-'s suicide note on EVE-O.

Besides, it's not like RedSwarm has anything else to do at the moment - LV are all-but-dead, and the southern invasion of BoB's serfs hasn't started...yet. :)

[tmp]

Similarly, had Fix stayed neutral, then that direction would have been safe from threats: one less front.  As it is, Bob have repeatedly had to send massive fleets round their tenants, sometimes two distant ones, in an evening, to shore up defences.

Had Fix try to stay neutral the front would simply be staged *from* Fix space and straight into Delve. Neutral space in EVE isn't something like RL country that no one moves through because it declared no involvement.

[MahrinSkel]

Any way you slice it, BoB is no longer on the defensive, the coalition has lost the initiative.  Whether that translates into a delay of the inevitable or a turning point depends on what *BoB* does with the initiative now that they have it.

--Dave

[Arthur_Parker]

I hope you are right because after only two weeks playing the game and reading up on the politics I really like it.  The absolute worst thing that could happen to ruin my enjoyment of the game would be BoB crumbling within a few months.  Personally I don't see them having a high chance of survival against the goons and RA, the external factors of GS being based on SA members and RA being crazy close knit funny language speakers seems like far too much of an advantage against any normal type of English language in-game clan.

[Comstar]

Any way you slice it, BoB is no longer on the defensive, the coalition has lost the initiative.  Whether that translates into a delay of the inevitable or a turning point depends on what *BoB* does with the initiative now that they have it.

Attacking FAT doesn't effect anyone except AAA and IAC. Granted it's useful to stop AAA, but all it's served so far is that a lot of the IAC PvP's who were camped at Doril (who the only target to ever fight was YARSK hunters, a russian pirate coward corp who the other russian alliences dont like) are now moving down to FAT.

If BoB/FiX wanted to, they could have taken FAT by now if they'd blitzkrieged it. I suspect BoB dosn't really want it, and it was the only place they *could* attack with ease. Strange thing is, BoB can dived their forces, but instead choose to show up with everything including the kitchen sink as far as capatil ships, but only a smallish support fleet.

BoB won't have the initative until they stop Goons from attacking, and -Y- comming seppuku won't count for long.

[tmp]

Another war twist: SMASH alliance that not so long ago helped RED alliance and Goons to overcome LV and conquer their territory is now actively attacked by RED. Apparently because RED wanted full access to 10/10 complex originally promised to SMASH as reward for the war effort.

http://myeve.eve-online.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=489824

[MahrinSkel]

Another war twist: SMASH alliance that not so long ago helped RED alliance and Goons to overcome LV and conquer their territory is now actively attacked by RED. Apparently because RED wanted full access to 10/10 complex originally promised to SMASH as reward for the war effort.

http://myeve.eve-online.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=489824

Not much of a twist, this war is all about the 10/10's for RA.  They want them all, letting someone else hold them for a bit is just a temporary arrangement.

--Dave

[Trippy]

this war is all about the 10/10's for RA.

Translation?

[Endie]

Another war twist: SMASH alliance that not so long ago helped RED alliance and Goons to overcome LV and conquer their territory is now actively attacked by RED. Apparently because RED wanted full access to 10/10 complex originally promised to SMASH as reward for the war effort.

http://myeve.eve-online.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=489824

You forgot to mention a SMASH member stealing a mothership from RA.  I thought RA set SMASH to RA about ten days ago over that?  All that whine about "we warned them not to deal with him" is crap.  They didn't kick him out of their alliance, they admit they knew what he was like, ergo he is their responsibility.

[MahrinSkel]

this war is all about the 10/10's for RA.

Translation?

The most concentrated form of wealth generation in 0.0 are the complexes (basically dungeons in space).  They are worth from hundreds of millions to billions per day, and 10/10 rated plexes are the most valuable (it's *very* concentrated, because only 4 people can run it each time).  Red Alliance built an incredible wallet (estimated to be from hundreds of billions to trillions) off some bugged 8/10's they exploited for well over a year (spawn timers on certain NPC's inside were messed up), when those were fixed they began their war of conquest, the goal of which is to take over control of all of the 10/10 complexes before the money from the bug exploit runs out.  They used to "squat" a lot of them, but as the population of 0.0 has gone up even being 6 hours ahead of everyone else and having the daily downtime (when the plexes reset) come during their primetime isn't enough to beat local alliances to the spawn.

Smash was foolish to make a deal with RA that involved Smash owning or sharing the 10/10.  RA has let their intent to control the 10/10's leak out several times, both directly and via the goons.  RA has no interest in the rest of the space they control, hence their bargain with GoonSwarm (RA money and Goon manpower is a pretty potent combination), the RA capital fleet backs the goon horde and the russians take the 10/10's, the goons get everything else.

--Dave

[Trippy]

Thanks, that makes sense.

[Simond]

Another war twist: SMASH alliance that not so long ago helped RED alliance and Goons to overcome LV and conquer their territory is now actively attacked by RED. Apparently because RED wanted full access to 10/10 complex originally promised to SMASH as reward for the war effort.

http://myeve.eve-online.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=489824

You forgot to mention a SMASH member stealing a mothership from RA.  I thought RA set SMASH to RA about ten days ago over that?  All that whine about "we warned them not to deal with him" is crap.  They didn't kick him out of their alliance, they admit they knew what he was like, ergo he is their responsibility.

Plus the SMASH offer to 'repay' RA was only 5 billion...while the scam cost the RA member 10billion ISK + a headful of good implants. Bear that in mind when reading the EVE-O thread with the bleating of "We settled that debt!!!1" The lesson of the story is: Don't fuck with the Russians.

[Endie]

Cheers, Mahrin: good background.

Two minor additions would be that the downtime isn't exactly weekday primetime for RA, since most of European Russia is at +3 to GMT/Eve Time.  But it means that any of them whose lifestyle supports running a plex at 3pm (more than enough) certainly have a huge advantage over people in the US.

The other is that GS (as opposed to RA: I wouldn't even know where to find that out...) deny having made the offer to SMASH that they're claiming.  Of course, both sides are now saying pretty much what you would expect them to say.  I expect that the mood in Bob's Fuhrerbunker is not exactly downheartened by the results, either.  It couldn't have worked out better if they'd paid the scammer themselves ...

[Simond]

Remember when RA jumped a dread fleet next to a bunch of LV in siege mode?
They just did the exact same trick to BoB - Ten or eleven BoB dreads down for two RA/-A- ones.  :-D

Edit: Actually 9 dreads plus 1 carrier.

[Endie]

Looks like BoB just suffered the fourth biggest loss of capital ships ever in the game, at the hands of Goonfleet* et al.  9 11 (?!!?) dreads in one engagement.  Earlier, GF had suffered a large number of T1 losses in the same system to a nicely placed DD, but it looks like they pulled it back big time.

If the link isn't hammered into the ground within minutes:
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0703/2007.03.12.15.12.34.jpg

Edit: dammit, beaten again.  I knew i shouldn't pause to find a link, let alone one which is, indeed, already DDOSed...

*Further Edit: Goonfleet opened the cyno, RA+AAA warped in their dreads.

[Yoru]

I've noticed some very sloppy behavior from BoB and friends over the past few days. This, along with a few other mishaps that have yet to be made public, are quite puzzling. BoB knows better. Hell, on the same day, they've had some smashing victories involving DD-camps that are rather difficult to break through.

I can't help but think they're up to something.

[Comstar]

Oh I'm sure losing 35 billion's worth is all part of a cunning plan.

At least the destruction of a 80 man IAC fleet yesterday wasn't a complete waste of time, it apperntly allowed the Goons in who dropped the Cyro field.

[Morat20]

I've noticed some very sloppy behavior from BoB and friends over the past few days. This, along with a few other mishaps that have yet to be made public, are quite puzzling. BoB knows better. Hell, on the same day, they've had some smashing victories involving DD-camps that are rather difficult to break through.

I can't help but think they're up to something.

BoB's got to have a limited supply of solid pilots and decent tacticians. They've probably got enough to plan fleet ops around the clock, but you really need skilled people there when the guns start firing to deal with surprises.

And also, there's the matter of experience -- what sort of warfare does BoB have the most experience with? I expect that when they go busting up a camp, they're sending in their best pilots and best field commanders. POS seige's are probably planned out by good tactical commanders, but handed over to field commanders with less experience (unless they're seiging something critical or expect heavy resistance).

[Simond]

I've noticed some very sloppy behavior from BoB and friends over the past few days. This, along with a few other mishaps that have yet to be made public, are quite puzzling. BoB knows better. Hell, on the same day, they've had some smashing victories involving DD-camps that are rather difficult to break through.

I can't help but think they're up to something.

Obligatory "They're losing their dev help" comment. 

[Morat20]

I've noticed some very sloppy behavior from BoB and friends over the past few days. This, along with a few other mishaps that have yet to be made public, are quite puzzling. BoB knows better. Hell, on the same day, they've had some smashing victories involving DD-camps that are rather difficult to break through.

I can't help but think they're up to something.

Obligatory "They're losing their dev help" comment. 

All things considered, probably the best thing BoB's got going for them in this way is the fools who believe that. The clever ones who don't are the ones doing damage to BoB.

[Krakrok]

What do I need to have for EVE to not run like shit in big engagements? I've got a 6600GT and only a gig a ram but EVE never seems to use more than 400 megs. We had a 30v18 yesterday and it was 1 FPS and less.

[Yoru]

Turn details down, turn turrets + effects off, turn trails off, sun not occluded by ships. Basically, turn off all teh shiney.

[Fordel]

The most concentrated form of wealth generation in 0.0 are the complexes (basically dungeons in space). <more about RA and 10/10's>...

Isn't that how RA survived the original coalition formed by LV+Friends? LV wouldn't (couldn't?) chase RA down into the complexes and RA basically having no space outside of 1 station did nothing to their money generation and backbone.

[Yoru]

The most concentrated form of wealth generation in 0.0 are the complexes (basically dungeons in space). <more about RA and 10/10's>...

Isn't that how RA survived the original coalition formed by LV+Friends? LV wouldn't (couldn't?) chase RA down into the complexes and RA basically having no space outside of 1 station did nothing to their money generation and backbone.

More or less, yes. When F13 was in -V-, RA still held and did all the complexes in -V- space. And there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the higher-ups about it.

[MahrinSkel]

BoB is also 4 (maybe 5 now?) different 250+ member corps that operate mostly independantly, as self-contained miniature alliances.  Seems like what happened is one corp was detailed out to deal with the KOS situation, and their commanders forgot that if you don't have the OMGWTFBBQ capital ship blob, you need a support fleet to prevent just such an occurrence (50+ dreads can take down a battle POS *without* entering siege mode).  You can operate dreads without a standard fleet, but not without a significant number of carriers (and BoB definitely does not emphasize carriers the way that, for example, FIX does, actually FIX may have more carriers than BoB).  You need *something* that can deal with ship fleets when the dreads are in Siege mode (in Siege, dreads do incredible damage but can't track moving targets, or maneuver themselves).  BoB doesn't do fighter bombing, their non-dread battle doctrine centers on the biggest T2 sniper blob in the game (in general fleet doctrine, RA, -A-, and BoB are all much alike) with a support element mostly consisting of HAC's (too rich for most people's blood, even for how effective they are).

On the other hand, 9 dreads is not the loss to BoB that 21 was to LV.  9 dreadnoughts is less than 20% of BoB's dread muster (probably about 15%), where 21 was about 75% of LV's total strength (and left them with too few to take down a POS, which triggered their rapid collapse).  A very expensive lesson in why you don't operate dreadnoughts without support, but not a disaster.

FIX has learned the hard way to plan our wars around sustainable losses, we lose a lot of cheaply fitted ships in the opening phases, but 2-3 months later we have a qualitative advantage over our opponents (who blew money on lots of T2 and faction gear early on to kick our butts).  So people come in, beat us on the killboards by margins of 2 to 1 or more for the first week or so, then start getting pwned a month later because they were actually losing twice as much money in half as many ships (yes, inspired by Goons).  BoB, RA, and -A- all insist on going to war in the absolute best ships they can afford, with the intent of not losing significant numbers of them because of the qualitative advantage.  But 500M+ isk officer grade modules don't save a ship that's been outmaneuvered into a position where all it can do is die.

--Dave

[JoeTF]

SMASH offer was 10B, not 5B. They also explained pretty well why they kept well known (so RA knew who they are dealing with, unless we assume that RA are blind, deaf and stupid as rock)  scammer: basically the motherships he fly were worth the risk of carefully watching him.

Regarding 9 BoB dreads, that's what happen when you get 9 dreads jumped by 30. BTW, look at Edie's post - not only he claims 10-11 but also death from hands of Goonswarm (both lies - it was 9 and from hands of RA dread fleet), really cheap propaganda attempt.

[Endie]

Regarding 9 BoB dreads, that's what happen when you get 9 dreads jumped by 30. BTW, look at Edie's post - not only he claims 10-11 but also death from hands of Goonswarm (both lies - it was 9 and from hands of RA dread fleet), really cheap propaganda attempt.

Don't be a dick.  I posted as soon as I saw the news, and updated very quickly afterwards when I saw more of what had happened: that GS had opened the cyno and RA and AAA had done the killing.  Your assumption about "propaganda" is bollocks, too.  I'm not a member of GF, though I have been pushing for F13 to get into the FTZ.  I've never been a member of any corp but F13.  I post on the SA boards, sure, because thy're fun.  But I utterly fail to see what difference it would make if GF had done the killing instead of their allies (except that, since they don't have dreads, it would be something of a miracle).

As regards the 11 thing, I openly admitted to the uncertainty in my original post, posting 9 and 11 and "?!?!".  As I now gather, the confusion might come from it being 11 capitals, 2 of which were carriers, but I'm not even sure of that, so didn't add it.