Who will rule the MMO market? **Betting ended January 2007**

[Falconeer]

I am not sure I am getting what you say Geldon, maybe it's just me. Predictions were cast for December 2007 AND December 2008. Two different sets of predictions.

From the opening post:

So, you are supposed to cast your prediction on how many subscriptions will these 6 games have as of December 2007 and December 2008 (this means two sets of predictions).

I know my English can get kinda broken, but that should be ok. Where does your mistake come from?

[geldonyetich2]

Nevermind, I'm just confused.    I was thinking that the bets were off because the 2008 numbers were in now or something.

[Falconeer]

Here are some additional winners

Warhammer just got its Master Predictors!

*Trouble* - Warhammer - Not Out Yet
*Simond* - Warhammer - Not Out Yet
*Eldaec* - Warhammer - Not Out Yet


Gratz guys. You earned it.

[eldaec]

..

[Simond]

me am winrar

[schild]

oh shit the doo wop society

i could've made that vanguard guess

now i'm depressed

[Lum]

Nevermind, I'm just confused.    I was thinking that the bets were off because the 2008 numbers were in now or something.

If you have any numbers at all from 2008 many people would be impressed!

[Trouble]

My predictions are full of win. We need overall winners based on percentages or something.

[Falconeer]

While I remind you that you can't enter the contest anymore, I think with all the Conan fuss going on this is a good time to awake this hibernated (not dead) thread and see what some of us predicted about Conan (not to mention Warhammer, but more on that later) more than 15 months ago.

[Venkman]

Nice. Can you update the WoW and PotBS actuals?

[UnSub]

My predictions are full of win. We need overall winners based on percentages or something.

My winning percentage: 0.00%

The only way is up.

[Falconeer]

Uhm, Darniaq. Numbers are updated on December(s). 2007 for the first part of the contest, 2008 for the final one. By December 2008 I will need help finding those numbers by the way. As you may notice, I couldn't really announce w1nn4rz for games like Vanguard or LotRO because there weren't *official* figures.

But I guess this whole thing is much more about how we (not just we at f13) perceive the hype and how products live up by it, than about actual precise numbers. That's what I had in mind when I came up with this and that is why I thought it was a good idea to pull it up yesterday. To check what we thought about Conan 15 months ago and what it is going to deliver.

[eldaec]

Game over man.



So...

What are we at?

Warhammer Online: 300-500k?
Age of Conan:       100k? (peaked at 400k)
Vanguard:              20-40k?
Lord of the Rings:   ? ? ?
Pirates of the Burning Sea: ? ? ?
World of Warcraft: 11M

What I find espeicially interesting is the number of older mmogs we didn't include, because they would so clearly have faded out by now. EVE, EQ2, CoH, even UO.


Simond and Trouble hit WoW on the nose. 

[Falconeer]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bets for December 2008:

Warhammer Online Angry.bob: 5 millions Shapechanger: 3,5 millions Datagod: 1,8 millions Modern Angel: 1,5 millions Darniaq: 1.5 millions Trouble: 1,5 millions Arthur Parker: 1 million Falconeer: 1 million Riggswolfe: 1 million Evangolis: 930k Simond: 750k Sairon: 700k Damijin: 650k Soln: 500k Comstar: 450k Eldaec: 350k Waylander: 350k HaemishM: 350k WindUpAtheist: 325k HRose: 300k Strazos: 236k Unsub: 190k Lantyssa: 175k Stray: 150k Xuri: 150k Cheddar: 45k

Age of Conan Sairon: 600k Trouble: 600k Modern Angel: 500k Riggswolfe: 400k Shapechanger: 350k Soln: 350k Darniaq: 300k WindUpAtheist: 300k Xuri: 300k HRose: 250k Evangolis: 240k Falconeer: 200k Simond: 200k HaemishM: 200k Lantyssa: 175k Stray: 150k Damijin: 150k Unsub: 150k Strazos: 111k Arthur Parker: 90k Datagod: 70k Eldaec: 40k Waylander: 40k Cheddar: 35k Comstar: - Angry.bob: -

Vanguard Falconeer: 300k Xuri: 250k Darniaq: 200k Soln: 200k Evangolis: 110k Damijin: 80k WindUpAtheist: 75k Lantyssa: 75k Datagod: 72k Modern Angel: 70k Shapechanger: 65k Arthur Parker: 60k Cheddar: 60k Stray: 60k Waylander: 60k Angry.bob: 60k Simond: 60k Comstar: 55k HRose: 50k Trouble: 50k Eldaec: 40k Sairon: 40k Unsub: 40k Strazos: 37k HaemishM: 30k Riggswolfe: 25k

LotRO Shapechanger: 550k Angry.bob: 500k Modern Angel: 400k Simond: 350k Trouble: 300k Evangolis: 250k Darniaq: 200k Lantyssa: 200k Xuri: 200k Falconeer: 150k Cheddar: 140k Strazos: 103k HRose: 100k Unsub: 100k Soln: 100k WindUpAtheist: 90k Sairon: 80k Waylander: 75k Eldaec: 50k Damijin: 50k HaemishM: 50k Stray: 40k Datagod: 35k Comstar: 30k Arthur Parker: - Riggswolfe: -

Pirates otBS Datagod: 800k Shapechanger: 350k Evangolis: 130k Comstar: 120k Strazos: 107k Darniaq: 100k Sairon: 100k Lantyssa: 100k Angry.bob: 80k Waylander: 75k Simond: 75k HaemishM: 75k Damijin: 70k Trouble: 70k Unsub: 65k WindUpAtheist: 40k Soln: 50k Xuri: 40k Modern Angel: 20k Falconeer: 20k Arthur Parker: - Cheddar: - Stray: - HRose: - Eldaec: - Riggswolfe: -

World of Warcraft Xuri: 15 millions Lantyssa: 13 millions Modern Angel: 12 millions Simond: 11 millions Trouble: 11 millions HRose: 10 millions Comstar: 10 millions Soln: 10 millions Cheddar: 9 millions Stray: 9 millions Eldaec: 9 millions WindUpAtheist: 9 millions Waylander: 9 millions Evangolis: 9 millions Riggswolfe: 8,5 millions Datagod: 8,3 millions Darniaq: 7 millions Damijin: 7 millions Sairon: 7 millions HaemishM: 7 millions Strazos: 6,2 millions Unsub: 6 millions Angry.bob: 5 millions Shapechanger: 4,5 millions Falconeer: 4 millions[/color] Arthur Parker: -

Betting ended on January 30th 2007 (Roughly 23 months ago).

I tried to sum it up. I don't have hard data and I don't really care about getting them. Feel free to quote respectable sources for more accurate figures.
Some of our predictions were so naive they are almost cute now. No big surprises out there though. Averages rule and things are exactly where they were in 2006 for the subscription based market. All in all, looks like predicting was pretty easy. Sometimes you wonder why we could accurately predict subscriptions for unreleased games, without even trying them, and the people making them couldn't despite the tools in their hands.
No winners though. No one ever wins when it comes to MMOs.

Oh, yeah. Looks like we were expecting a bit more by Warhammer Online. Heh, life!

If anything, this project tells me how slow the industry is moving, as for some reason I don't feel like it could be replicated now. I mean, let's pick 5 new titles for the next 2 years. What would you pick?
In 2006, when I started this, the 6 chosen ones were so obvious.

[WindupAtheist]

I'd be shocked if WAR was maintaining 500k...

[Venkman]

I mean, let's pick 5 new titles for the next 2 years. What would you pick?

Heh, good question. My picks would be:

• WoW, of course.
• EQ2, if we could get numbers.
• The Agency
• SW:TOR (assuming it launches in 2009 or 2010 of course)
• DF, because we included the fail of VG in the last one
• WAR, because.

[schild]

I mean, let's pick 5 new titles for the next 2 years. What would you pick?

Heh, good question. My picks would be:

• WoW, of course.
• EQ2, if we could get numbers.
• The Agency
• SW:TOR (assuming it launches in 2009 or 2010 of course)
• DF, because we included the fail of VG in the last one
• WAR, because.

Replace Darkfall with DC Online. Not because DC Online will fail, quite the latter, I think it can and may be a great success. But mostly because Darkfall, as I've said a thousand times, doesn't deserve the attention.

WAR isn't worth discussing. I'd rather gamble on Aion or Guild Wars 2. Particularly the latter, which should be in beta by the end of 09, if not the summer.

EQ2 is an interesting choice.

The only prediction necessary for WoW is wax or wane. Numbers don't even matter anymore. It's a matter of whether it'll hit critical mass in 08 or 09 - which depends on a number of things, like do Starcraft 2 and D3 come out in 09, if so, they've always got at least 1 game or expansion announced, as such, what's next.

Etc. ETc.

[eldaec]

EVE should be included, not least since we might actually be playing the damn game.

WoW
EVE
WAR
ChampO
DC Online

Bonus predictions:

Darkfail : Release date
Name of one unreleased mmog other than one of the above that will be at 500k+ at the end of the year.

I also think you're overstating WAR subs.


Problem with SW:TOR is that it is too easy to predict, zero subs, not launched. DF has the same problem.

[Venkman]

Good point on DC Online. That one slipped my mind but I agree it could be big. WAR I figured for the second year effect (turn-around/demise). I agree that as a topic we've discussed all there is to discuss about it. EQ2 because of the slow-and-steady factor. Similar to LoTRO, it's a fun game and a competent execution managed by a good team. They just don't really generate any headlines (aside from SOE's penchant for new business models) and doesn't have much to discuss/rant about. However, in a world without WoW, either one could be the current "King", in a much smaller genre.

My revised list:

    * WoW, of course.
    * EQ2, if we could get numbers.
    * The Agency
    * SW:TOR (assuming it launches in 2009 or 2010 of course)
    * WAR, because.
    * DC Online

ChampO will be interesting to watch particularly if it comes out any time around DC. I know why ChampO started, but I could see this one getting cancelled before launch unless the global economy swings back into bubble land.

[Lantyssa]

I think your WAR numbers are too high.  I'll claim a 2/5 with that taken into consideration. 

[schild]

My revised list:

    * WoW, of course.
    * EQ2, if we could get numbers.
    * The Agency
    * SW:TOR (assuming it launches in 2009 or 2010 of course)
    * WAR, because.
    * DC Online

If we're doing 2009 and 2010, I still think it's a fallacy to not include Guild Wars 2 and Aion. Maybe even Battleforge is worth adding.

[Falconeer]

The thing was 100% about subscription based MMOs as they were the Present and Future in 2006.

Now things are looking different and different everyday, but would it be fair to have predictions based on a mix of subscription based ones and different business models? I take Guild Wars 2 will be as free as the first one, and not sure about The Agency but I wouldn't be surprised to find out they will abolish monthly fee. Free Realms and the recent EQ2 news point in that direction.
Still, the original idea was about unreleased products. And that's what we kinda lack: believable and upcoming unreleased MMOs. Changing the rules is cool too anyway.

Finally, WAR: what are their current numbers? I honestly don't know but combining NA and EU and the number of sold boxes I didn't feel comfortable going too low yet.

[schild]

There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to limit it to subscription base-only MMOGs.

As the industry changes - for the better, imo - we need to also.

Edit:

Finally, WAR: what are their current numbers?

No one knows and it will be a sub-zero day in hell before they ever release any real (and official) numbers.

[Ratman_tf]

I mean, let's pick 5 new titles for the next 2 years. What would you pick?

My predictions for '09:

Star Trek Online and Stargate Worlds linger in development hell.

Whateverthefuck Superhero genre game has a better chance than STO or SGW, but dev hell threatens it also.

Guild Wars 2 comes out, and does at least as sucessful as the first Guild Wars.

World of Warcraft continues to dominate. We may see it finally start to peak around 12 million subscribers.

Star Wars: TOTOR has about a 50% chance of not being MMOGish at all. It might turn out more like Guild Wars than a shared persistant world. If released, it will do about as well as WAR. About 500-750k subs.

And.. within the next two years I see one of the original big three (Ascheron's Call, Ultima Online, Everquest) closing down.

[Azazel]

My revised list:

    * WoW, of course.
    * EQ2, if we could get numbers.
    * The Agency
    * SW:TOR (assuming it launches in 2009 or 2010 of course)
    * WAR, because.
    * DC Online

If we're doing 2009 and 2010, I still think it's a fallacy to not include Guild Wars 2 and Aion. Maybe even Battleforge is worth adding.

Too hard to predict anything for DC, SW, Agency at this point since we know fuckall about either at this point. It's just darts-at-the-wall guessing.

WAR will announce numbers when they hit 1m subscribers. Which will never happen.

[Venkman]

There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to limit it to subscription base-only MMOGs.

You need four different lists to do this right:

1. AAA Retail-/Steam-purchased with monthly fee (WoW, etc). I'd still include EQ2 here unless they drop the recurring fee.
2. AAA based on microtransactions (MapleStory, etc) or some other method of recurring fee collection (Guild Wars being theoretically based on expansion packs)
3. Browser-based MMOs (zOMG, Dofus, Club Penguin, etc) based on microtrans
4. Browser-based MMOs based on monthly fees.

This way we don't get into silly comparisons between zOMG and WoW. Just completely different games, audiences, and business models.

I don't think Aion is going to be a huge US hit. But should we break out the above list by region? In two years, we really may not give a shit because by then all of the big activity from Western developers could have headed East.

[UnSub]

The list should certainly contain some NCsoft games because they (TR aside) do release player population numbers.

I find it really interesting reading that list as two years ago I had no interest in WAR at all, so I didn't think it would get that many players. If you'd asked me the month of the launch when I was somewhat interested, I would have sworn it would have easily broken 1 million players.

My only embarrassing call on that list was WoW, which I said would have half the player numbers it currently does. I must have only been thinking about non-Asian region players, yeah, that's it 

Okay - if you are going to include Aion, a decision has to be made about the location of those players. It's no good saying "Aion won't do well in the US" but including all the non-US players who play WoW in your numbers. Either you compare titles on a worldwide or on a regional basis, but not worldwide numbers for one and ignore a title based on one region. Apples with apples. And on that note: how about the MMOs coming out on consoles? Would you be taking in all player numbers, or splitting them PC and console? Because I think some of the planned multi-platform MMOs are going to sell better on consoles than they will on PCs.

ChampO is still allegedly due out in Q2 2009 and is impossible to rate without knowing if PC and Xbox 360 versions will launch at the same time. Darkfall is out in less than three weeks and I'd give it a good chance of having 90k players by December 2009.

[Draegan]

I think we should use Jumpgate, AION, ChampO, SW:TOR, DC-O,WOW,WAR,LOTRO,Guild Wars2? and a bonus quest of when darkfail closes down.

[Nebu]

... and a bonus quest of when darkfail closes down.

Haven't you seen the Darkfall thread?  It's going to be AWESOME!

[schild]

... and a bonus quest of when darkfail closes down.

Haven't you seen the Darkfall thread?  It's going to be AWESOME!

I don't know why that was in green. Some people actually think that.

[Nebu]

I don't know why that was in green. Some people actually think that.

True.  I am not among them. 

[Signe]

I think including Aion and Jumpgate is as wrong as including Darkfall.  Well, maybe "wrong" is not a good word.  Silly?  Useless?  Dumb?  I don't know - someone else think up a word.

[Arthur_Parker]

Finally, WAR: what are their current numbers?

No one knows and it will be a sub-zero day in hell before they ever release any real (and official) numbers.

I thought they have to release some form of numbers for WAR as part of the next EA quarter results.

[Draegan]

I think including Aion and Jumpgate is as wrong as including Darkfall.  Well, maybe "wrong" is not a good word.  Silly?  Useless?  Dumb?  I don't know - someone else think up a word.

Why Aion?  It's already a successful game overseas and reportedly is more of a western style game in terms of quests, level times and playability.

[Numtini]

That's funny, I looked at Aion the other day and never even realized it was from ncsoft. I thought it was just another generic korean grinder.