2006 World Cup Chock full o' spoilers thread

[Jobu]

Back in crazy Sven-world, leaks from the England camp suggest England will be playing 4-5-1 on Sunday, bizarrely, Carrick will play at the back of midfield with Hargreaves replacing Carragher at RB.

You couldn't make this shit up.

W.T.F.

Why did he even bother taking Walcott? Gah.

Either way, yeah... I think 3-5-2 could be a great formation for the team. They need another guy up front to score goals, and with their best defenders lining up in the back they could hold out pretty well. Just a question of juggling the players... and yes, mind-controlling Sven. Maybe we can bribe him with a barrel of smoked mackerel. Swedes like dried fish, right?

So now we have:

Germany v. Sweden
Argentina v. Mexico
England v. Ecuador
Portugal v. Netherlands
Italy v. Australia
Switzerland v. Ukraine
Brazil v. Ghana
Spain v. France

I think it will result in the following quarters:

Germany v. Argentina
Both teams will sweep aside their opponents to get here. Sweden miiight beat Germany, but unlikely. They have been sputtering up front too much, and Germany are riding a great swell of confidence and support.

Australia v. Ukraine
Guus is going to rock Italy's boat. Australia play sooo fast, and so physically. Italians will fall before them. Expect lots of filthy diving and time-wasting from Lippi's squad. I think Ukraine will beat out the Swiss... maybe on penalties?

England v. Holland
England will do another sloppy win over Ecuador. Holland will push through Portugal with style... expect Robben to light the pitch on fire dancing around everyone. And C.Ronaldo will get a red card for petulant fouls and diving.

Brazil v. Spain
Brazil will get past Ghana now that they've finally picked up a little. Ghana get their strikers back, but I don't think they have the skill to edge them out. Spain will demolish a slow, uncreative, old French team.

After that... well, we'll see when we get there.

[Hoax]

I still say that England and Holland are at greater risk going into the round of 16 then Italy...  we'll see who is right I suppose, I've been having a hell of a time deciding how good I actually think Ecuador is.

re: Eldeac

Here is what I based my selection changes on, goal differentials are in parenthesis':

0pt teams>
Serbia Montenegro (-8) europe
Costa Rica (-6) concacaf
Togo (-5) africa

1pt teams>
Japan (-5) asia
Suaudi Arabia (-5) asia
Iran (-4) asia
USA (-4) concacaf
Trinidad (-4) concacaf
Tunisia (-3) africa

Teams in the round of 16:
Europe: 9/13
South America: 4/5
Africa: 1/5
Concacaf: 1/4
Asia: 0/4

When you look at it like that giving both new playoff qualifing opporunities to south america (allowing them to potentially qualify half of their teams) doesn't even sound like a terrible idea 



Also I didn't say give south america or europe another automatic slot just give them another playoff qualifier opporunity and turn one of asia and one of concacaf's automatic qualification spots into a playoff.

[WayAbvPar]

Germany v. Sweden- Germany

Argentina v. Mexico -Argentina

England v. Ecuador- England (although this is dicey)

Portugal v. Netherlands- Netherlands (this is a coinflip in my view)

Italy v. Australia- Italy (LOVE to see the 'roos pull an upset here though)

Switzerland v. Ukraine- NO idea here (have only seen 1/2 of a Swiss game and no Ukraine yet)....gonna go with Switzerland

Brazil v. Ghana- Brazil; Ghana has no shot without Essien

Spain v. France- Haven't seen Spain yet, and France looked dodgy (haven't watched v Togo yet). I will say Zidane wills them through to the quarters. France.

[Righ]

Okay, let me see how my first round of guesswork went:

Group A: Poland, Germany
Group B: England, Sweden
Group C: Holland, Argentina
Group D: Portugal, Mexico
Group E: Italy, USA
Group F: Brazil, Croatia
Group G: France, Korea
Group H: Spain, Ukraine

Instead, we got:

Group A: Germany, Ecuador
Group B: England, Sweden
Group C: Argentina, Holland
Group D: Portugal, Mexico
Group E: Italy, Ghana
Group F: Brazil, Australia
Group G: Switzerland, France
Group H: Spain, Ukraine

So... 12/16 of my picks through, 3/8 groups on the money. Ah well. Time to revise my following guesses:

I think it'll be Germany vs Argentina, England vs Holland, Australia vs Ukraine, Brazil vs Spain.

[HaemishM]

Because the Czechs and Polish played so well?

They both played better than the USA. 

[eldaec]

I'm seeing way too much love for Ukraine and Austrailia in these predictions. My predictions with current odds...


1.68 Germany v. Sweden 6.6
1.41 Argentina v. Mexico 13.5
1.54 England v. Ecuador 8.4
3.45 Portugal v. Netherlands 2.4
1.54 Italy v. Australia 8.0
2.6 Switzerland v. Ukraine 3.05
1.29 Brazil v. Ghana 13.0
2.4 Spain v. France 3.4

Spain and France I can't call, if I really had to I'd go with Spain.

If you are looking for an upset outside of that match Ecuador and Ukraine are the only remotely backable options for me. But I'm surprised you can't find longer odds on Ukraine.

Bet of the round has to be a double on Netherlands and Switzerland for 6.24. If you throw Argentina, Brazil and Germany onto that as an accumulator you can ramp up to 19.2, the danger in doing that is the possibility of a someone holding out for a draw.

[Tale]

I'd pick the same as you Eldaec, but I would have bolded Spain for sure.

[Llyse]

at 4.50 I'm tempted to put something on the Aussies... although 1-4 for a draw...

Spain definitely is incumbent against France, scrapping in off the last match... not very impressive at all

[Tale]

Another one for Haemish: a laugh at Ronaldo's expense.

[Horik]

I liked the commercial, that was from '98 right?

[Signe]

Sweden is lucky to have such a long, alert goal keeper, otherwise the score would have been Sweden 0, Germany 12.   

[Righ]

Germany still didn't look like they've got enough to bring a game to Argentina.

[eldaec]

Today Germany were flattered by a poor Swedish display. But the same can be said of every Argentinian performance so far - noone has played well against them either.

I wouldn't write off the Germans on home soil. I don't see either side keeping a clean sheet - and I'd still back the Germans to sneak out on top.

[Righ]

That was the best 45 minutes of football so far, and it was unimpeded silly ref calls. By comparison, Larrionda would have sent off several people and everybody else would be carrying a yellow card.

Well, it didn't get better, but the result was probably just in the end. The second Argentine goal was clearly onside, and though the Mexicans ran away from their goal to try and create an offside trap, they reacted too late. Good job for the Argies that they have young talent to carry them though the extra time. Both teams played well, but the Argentinians deerved that, and pulled it off, not least due to good use of subs.

[yd]

That offside call against argentina was in line with the sideline refs' pattern of favouring the defending team throughout the '06 cup. They're hard calls to make; the sideline ref can rarely have his eyes centered both on the ball and on the last defender at the exact instant a pass is made, and as such the important thing is consistency rather than withstanding scrutiny by frame-by-frame TV replays. They've done a good job of being consistent on the tougher calls.

I thought overall Mexico Argentina was one of the more exciting games so far. Both teams were talented and very used to playing each other, but rather than creating rigid, deadlocked matches like most european teams tend to do in such situations, they played a fluid game throughout.

I have a hard time agreeing that Argentina "deserved" the win any more than Mexico would have, had they pulled it off. The mexican coach stated after the game that he couldn't make the substitions he had planned, because of a couple of injuries, and that probably ended up playing a bigger factor that people realize. As for that second Argentinian goal, it sure was beautiful, but it was hardly a group effort succeeding in breaking the mexican defense; moreso a brief flash of outstanding individual skill by Maxi, something Mexico also exhibited at times.

[Signe]

I agree that it was probably the most fun game I've seen so far.  I'm worried for England, though.  I think they might have to cheat or something if my voodoo doesn't work.   

[Llyse]

England only have to beat Ecuador, local betting agency puts Ecuador at 1-7

Holland have got Argentinians to beat to prove they're not underachievers

What's your voodoo do for England anyway, aren't they suppose to give bad luck? 

[Signe]

I waggle my fingers a bit and imagine David Beckham naked.  I don't know if it helps them, but it gets me through the night.

[Azazel]

Just watched the Arg-Mex replay, since I fell asleep during the first half since it was about 5:30am.

That was really a beautiful game, and since I have nothing invested in either team I was able to just sit and watch and enjoy the skill and talent of both teams without risking an aneurism. Really, I think both of those teams deserved to go through to the final 8. Just a great match from both.

[yd]

Ecuador is a dangerous team, I wouldn't put them in the same league as Paraguay or Trinidad; they are much more capable of punishing England for sloppy plays or lapses in concentration. They are mostly unknown outside of south america, but lately they have had the structure to compete well against the south american teams, and unless England is on top of their game, they'll certainly get a run for their money as well.

[eldaec]

England looked like they inended to play as unit for the first time today, though it's slow going working the kinks out of the new formation.

Lampard and Beckham were still ultimately passengers.

But for me it would still make more sense to put Crouch on instead of Lampard and have Rooney play from deeper. Lennon > Beckham right now, but we can disregard that as a bridge too far for Eriksson.

Carrick did well. JCole had a shocker. ACole was much improved over the group games.

[Llyse]

Is everyone in shock about the Portugal vs Holland game?

I don't know how Marco van Basten can be so passive with a game with 4 red cards, 16 yellow cards.

Omg Kuyt sucked so bad too, I don't know why Ruud van Nistelroy didn't get on for the last 10 minutes too.

England must be laughing their heads off with Deco and another player suspended for their Quarters and Pretty boy Ronaldo injured possibly.

Very exciting, I would have enjoyed the game more if I wasn't supporting Holland

[Righ]

A still underwhelming England through to the semi-finals then. Both the Dutch and the Portuguese were totally robbed in that game. It was irrelevant who advanced, since they're both carrying enough yellow cards to make it easy even for a totally lousy England to advance. So, now England get to play the Portugal B team, and all they need to do is turn their backs to whoever comes near them. Brazil can spend a few nights on the town, secure in the knowledge that they're into the final.

[eldaec]

Surprised to see Holand go out on such an average performance.

On the other hand from an England perspective, I'm pretty confident about the QF now, Portugal minus 2 important players suspended and a third possibly injured *should* be emminently winnable.

[Llyse]

The Portuguese were definitely the better team, but I'm not sure many of those yellow cards were unwarranted. Figo could have gotten a red card for that headbutt.

I guess your waggling worked Signe  :-D

For me Kuyt was so frustrationly bad though, the lack of finishing was worse than Australia's! They didn't seem to be running with passion and fighting for the ball even though they were down a goal and were 1 man up for most of the game.

Just bad, so bad

[Jeff Kelly]

Germany still didn't look like they've got enough to bring a game to Argentina.

Could it be that you just don't like germany much? This was a great game and it seems to me that you are a bit biased because of personal grudges.

Argentina vs. Mexico: The ref should have sent the argentinian player off for that foul.

[Signe]

I guess your waggling worked Signe  :-D

I know.  I was just saying that to Righ.  I think I'm afraid of my fingers now. 

And... we like Germany, actually, Jeff.  I'm hoping they do well.  They may not have the better team, but they're not far off.  I'm hoping being at home gives them that extra bit of oomph they need to pull it off.

[yd]

Against a fully prepared Portugal I think England would have had a hard time, and it'd have been a great game to watch. But as it stands, I'm not too excited.

Portugal Holland was just awful, shit hit the fan and neither team managed to keep level heads; the game was basically over after about the 60th minute.

[Signe]

Portugal is a tough team and they play pretty physical football.  It looks like that might work against them in this case, however.

[Righ]

Germany still didn't look like they've got enough to bring a game to Argentina.

Could it be that you just don't like germany much? This was a great game and it seems to me that you are a bit biased because of personal grudges.

I think England and Germany are great teams that are under-performing for their depth of talent. They have some of the very best players in the world who play at a top level for longer than most countries' players, world class coaches, and excellent pedigrees. They need to be performing much much better than they are. I think Germany can win the cup, and I'd certainly rather they did so than a South American country this time round. But right now its not looking good, is it?

I don't think I have a "personal grudge" against any nation as it happens, least of all Germany (after a few people I know had relatives die in the Falklands conflict and after working a stint in a military hospital around that time, I should really favor Germany in their next match if I bring external prejudices into play, shouldn't I?). And I have a deep love of German music and beer. But I'm still rooting for the Australian underdogs to astound everybody.

But hey, call me a fucking nationalist hater if you want, it seems to me that it just shows you up an imbecile and a presumtuous asshole.

[yd]

Playing rough football is one thing, but towards the end both teams were out and out fighting; at least half of those yellow cards were for actions having nothing to do with the course of a play. Now, on top of having an injured C.Ronaldo, Portugal has a suspended Deco and very likely a suspended Figo too. Who does that leave to carry the team forward? I don't know what kind of players they have on the bench, but they'd better be pretty damn good.

[Abagadro]

Despite all the crap that the ref got in the broadcast here in the USA, the fault seemed to be more with the thuggish play/fighting of the players. 

[yd]

Despite all the crap that the ref got in the broadcast here in the USA, the fault seemed to be more with the thuggish play/fighting of the players. 

I agree the majority of his cards were warranted. I think i remember seeing one or two yellow cards that seemed weird, but that still leaves about twelve or fourteen yellows that were entirely justifiable, especially towards the end when people were getting clipped left and right for no reason other than frustration on the other team's part.

In fact, there were at least two instances before general mayhem broke out where the ref let some pretty serious stuff slide that would have otherwise resulted in Portugal losing a second player, possibly conceding a penalty kick in the process.

[eldaec]

Despite all the crap that the ref got in the broadcast here in the USA, the fault seemed to be more with the thuggish play/fighting of the players. 

I'd agree, you could easily throw a few extra yellows in for 'simulation' and Figo was lucky to get his yellow for the headbutt. If the referee had missed that then fifa would almost certainly have suspended him for the quarter final as well.

[Luxor]

Deco's first yellow should have been a straight red so the referee was actually a bit too lenient  :-D  And how the little diving cnut Robben stayed on the field is another matter, he needed someone to come in and chop his legs away so as to have a real reason to writhe about on the floor.