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Author Topic: Coronavirus / COVID-19  (Read 250968 times)
Gimfain
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Reply #630 on: May 11, 2020, 02:49:21 AM

On day 6. Yesterday I felt good (under the circumstances that is), muscles just don't recover like they should and the regular energy still isn't there but I still haven't had coughs, breathing is more like normal and lungs feel fine. Today I lost most of my taste, smell and when I tried to answer the phone I realized my voice is almost gone. I will try do stuff that makes my pulse go up a bit so i can tell how I really feel.

When you ask for a miracle, you have to be prepared to believe in it or you'll miss it when it comes
slog
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Reply #631 on: May 11, 2020, 02:51:44 AM

On day 6. Yesterday I felt good (under the circumstances that is), muscles just don't recover like they should and the regular energy still isn't there but I still haven't had coughs, breathing is more like normal and lungs feel fine. Today I lost most of my taste, smell and when I tried to answer the phone I realized my voice is almost gone. I will try do stuff that makes my pulse go up a bit so i can tell how I really feel.

Get tested?

Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
Gimfain
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Reply #632 on: May 11, 2020, 02:53:01 AM

On day 6. Yesterday I felt good (under the circumstances that is), muscles just don't recover like they should and the regular energy still isn't there but I still haven't had coughs, breathing is more like normal and lungs feel fine. Today I lost most of my taste, smell and when I tried to answer the phone I realized my voice is almost gone. I will try do stuff that makes my pulse go up a bit so i can tell how I really feel.

Get tested?
They don't do test on people that are outside vulnerable groups, don't need hospital help or handle vulnerable people. Besides, I lack a car so can't get there on my own. The rule for people like me is, stay isolated and if you start feeling bad, call for phone support, if it urgent, call 112.

For statistics they check for people needing hospital help and intensive care.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 03:01:17 AM by Gimfain »

When you ask for a miracle, you have to be prepared to believe in it or you'll miss it when it comes
Sir T
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Reply #633 on: May 11, 2020, 05:12:37 AM

Articles are a week old, I'm getting these from another forum I read, but thought they were interesting nonetheless.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/iceland-testing-coronavirus-success

Quote
Iceland has confirmed 1,799 cases of the virus, but just 10 people have died. The number of new COVID-19 cases each day has fallen from 106 at the peak of the outbreak to single digits — even, on some days, zero.

“I didn’t expect the recovery to be this fast,” said Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, Thorolfur Gudnason.

Iceland’s success is partly testament to its tiny population — just 360,000 people. But it also reflects decisive action by authorities, who used a rigorous policy of testing and tracking to find and isolate infected people, even when they had no symptoms.

Quote
Associated Press: US to rein in flood of virus blood tests after lax oversight

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. regulators Monday pulled back a decision that allowed scores of coronavirus blood tests to hit the market without first providing proof that they worked.

The Food and Drug Administration said it took the action because some sellers have made false claims about the tests and their accuracy.

Under pressure to increase testing options, the FDA in March essentially allowed companies to begin selling tests as long as they notified the agency of their plans and provided disclaimers, including that they were not FDA approved. The policy was intended to allow “flexibility” needed to quickly ramp up production, officials said.

“However, flexibility never meant we would allow fraud,” Dr. Anand Shah, an FDA deputy commissioner, said in a statement. “We unfortunately see unscrupulous actors marketing fraudulent test kits and using the pandemic as an opportunity to take advantage of Americans.”

Hic sunt dracones.
Tebonas
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Reply #634 on: May 11, 2020, 05:20:06 AM

Companies use missing oversight to defraud customers. That really is a surprise to exactly nobody...
HaemishM
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Reply #635 on: May 11, 2020, 06:29:42 AM

Who would have thought that an agency created to make sure people weren't selling literal poison to consumers as miracle cures would then be needed to regulate companies selling utter lies to people in desperate need?

Engels
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Reply #636 on: May 11, 2020, 10:05:41 AM

Why its nearly as if having a working government is a good thing.

I should get back to nature, too.  You know, like going to a shop for groceries instead of the computer.  Maybe a condo in the woods that doesn't even have a health club or restaurant attached.  Buy a car with only two cup holders or something. -Signe

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Trippy
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Reply #637 on: May 11, 2020, 05:07:00 PM

Another randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir, this time at ten hospitals in Wuhan, China, published in The Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Unfortunately the results of this trial did not show any statistically significant differences in the primary outcomes measured:
Quote
Our trial found that intravenous remdesivir did not significantly improve the time to clinical improvement, mortality, or time to clearance of virus in patients with serious COVID-19 compared with placebo.
Khaldun
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Reply #638 on: May 11, 2020, 07:41:02 PM

About a month ago, but if you want to get some sense of why antiviral medications are so hard to develop--and why almost all experts are pessimistic about vaccines or drug therapies: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill
Gimfain
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Reply #639 on: May 12, 2020, 04:06:34 AM

Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

When you ask for a miracle, you have to be prepared to believe in it or you'll miss it when it comes
slog
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Reply #640 on: May 12, 2020, 05:17:47 AM

Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

Glad to hear that you are better. It's too bad they are not interested in testing you for purposes of contract tracing.

Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
01101010
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Reply #641 on: May 12, 2020, 05:28:51 AM

Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

Get tested? Results?

Does any one know where the love of God goes...When the waves turn the minutes to hours? -G. Lightfoot
Brolan
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Reply #642 on: May 12, 2020, 07:23:35 AM

From reports this thing can really turn on you about day 9.  Even if you are feeling better.  Be vigilant!
schild
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Reply #643 on: May 12, 2020, 08:02:05 AM

Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

You're gonna want to knock on wood over the next 72 hours.
Khaldun
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Reply #644 on: May 12, 2020, 01:35:13 PM

The narratives from people who have had the bad version are pretty terrifying.
jgsugden
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Reply #645 on: May 12, 2020, 04:58:33 PM

Meanwhile, people in my little community of 4000 people are bitching because the community pool is not open.  And it looks like it *will* open soon. South Carolina - land of denial.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #646 on: May 12, 2020, 07:40:02 PM

A pre-print (non-peer reviewed) paper was uploaded today that claims that if you take into account individual variations in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the percentage of people that needs to be infected (and recover or die) before the virus stops spreading is smaller than if you assume everybody has the same susceptibility and exposure chances.

Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

I'm still trying to understand their argument but I believe what they are claiming conceptually is that:

1. People who are susceptible to being infected will get it sooner rather than later

2. People who are "connected" will get it sooner rather than later

3. Once the above two populations have been infected and recovered (or dead) those that remain are either less likely to be infected or are essentially hiding so there's not enough less "fuel" around for the virus to keep spreading, thereby lowering the percentage of population that needs to be infected before herd immunity kicks in.

 
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 07:43:47 PM by Trippy »
MahrinSkel
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When she crossed over, she was just a ship. But when she came back... she was bullshit!


Reply #647 on: May 12, 2020, 09:25:47 PM

On it's face, it's bullshit, by their own assumptions the population of "susceptible" needs to quickly die or recover without infecting the "vulnerable". It's the "herd immunity" argument with extra pixie dust.

--Dave

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schild
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Reply #648 on: May 12, 2020, 09:35:31 PM

that sounds like silicon valley reinventing taxis for the hundredth time

how many different ways can we describe herd immunity, as dave said
Trippy
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Reply #649 on: May 12, 2020, 11:07:43 PM

Another pre-print paper that also claims that for COVID-19 we won't need to reach the classical, vaccine-based herd immunity percentages to reach herd immunity.

The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level

Their model is different than the previous one but it's also based on the assumption that the disease is spreading through a heterogeneous population rather than a homogeneous one. In this paper they group people by age and then assume each age group has a different amount of "activity"/contact. So the younger more active population is infected sooner than the younger or older less active populations which again means the herd immunity % doesn't need to be as high.

Interview with one of the authors, Tom Britton, about the paper:

Ny kalkyl: Stockholm kan nå flockimmunitet i juni (New calculation: Stockholm can reach herd immunity in June)

It's in Swedish but Google Translate seems to do a good job translating.
Gimfain
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Reply #650 on: May 13, 2020, 03:28:12 AM

Need a proper antibodies tests so that they can do proper testing to see who had it in stockholm, until then any calculation is just throwing darts at random.

When you ask for a miracle, you have to be prepared to believe in it or you'll miss it when it comes
jgsugden
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Reply #651 on: May 13, 2020, 07:54:44 AM

Yeah - when part of the assumptions are that people are hiding from the virus, it doesn't pan out. 

Go look up Spanish Flu in San Francisco. 

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #652 on: May 13, 2020, 08:48:58 AM

Yes I don’t understand the math but I assume both models are assuming people are mixing more freely than they are in stay at home conditions though it’s not clear if Sweden matches that or if they are mixing enough for either model to apply. But without enough mixing you end in a situation like South Korea right now where some “super spreaders” have been isolating and once you let them mingle again you start back up the spread of infections. So you need to get those people infected early for the overall herd immunity threshold to drop if I understand these models correctly.

Edit: iPad screw up
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 08:54:38 AM by Trippy »
Samwise
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Reply #653 on: May 13, 2020, 08:50:12 AM

Yes I don’t understand the math but I assume both models are assuming people are mixing more freely than they are in stay at home conditions though it’s not clear if Sweden matches that or if they are mixing enough for either model to apply. But without enough mixing you end in a situation like South Korea where some “super spreaders” have been isolating and once you let them mingle again you sta

oh my god, Corona-chan just took Trippy out mid-post   ACK!

"I have not actually recommended many games, and I'll go on the record here saying my track record is probably best in the industry." - schild
Trippy
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Reply #654 on: May 13, 2020, 08:54:49 AM

LOL
MahrinSkel
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When she crossed over, she was just a ship. But when she came back... she was bullshit!


Reply #655 on: May 13, 2020, 09:03:37 AM

To simplify, they are saying the potential super-spreaders will catch it early, so the potential R0 will drop and the herd immunity threshold will be lower.

There may be something to that, but they are not really understanding the underlying graph theory as applied to social spaces (this is very definitely in my wheelhouse), and as a result are overstating the effect by an order of magnitude. They're saying it reduces the threshold from 80% to 30%, the reality is more like 80% to 75%.

tldr: Hyperconnected nodes are generally on the shortest arbitrary paths across a graph, but real social graphs are highly redundant. Taking out the shortest paths to infection does not remove all paths to infection.

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jgsugden
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Reply #656 on: May 13, 2020, 06:24:08 PM

This sadly makes a lot of sense to me...  Herd immunity, per this article, is not going to help us much. 

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #657 on: May 13, 2020, 06:32:24 PM

Uh, their model, using their default values. seems to disprove their thesis. So I'm not sure what the point of including that was.

Fortunately for us non-Swedes, Sweden continues to test whether or not you can develop herd immunity to COVID-19 on a real life population (sadly for Swedes, their own), so we should know by the end of Summer whether or not that's possible, unless they give up and lock down.

Edit: clarification

jgsugden
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Reply #658 on: May 13, 2020, 06:43:06 PM

It has some problems with how it is written, but the default is meant to show how herd immunity works.  As you play with the sliders as they discuss through it, you see the problems.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #659 on: May 13, 2020, 08:40:06 PM

Yeah still don't see the problem. Increasing R0 decreases the number of days to reach herd immunity (obviously that may overwhelm hospitals but they don't model that). Shortening immunity duration by *a lot* does drag things out, potentially indefinitely, and while that is still an unknown given what we know from other coronaviruses it's probably not *that* short.
jgsugden
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Reply #660 on: May 14, 2020, 09:53:52 AM

Yeah still don't see the problem. Increasing R0 decreases the number of days to reach herd immunity (obviously that may overwhelm hospitals but they don't model that). Shortening immunity duration by *a lot* does drag things out, potentially indefinitely, and while that is still an unknown given what we know from other coronaviruses it's probably not *that* short.
Their fictitious disease, labeled as Fictitious, using the default sliders hits herd immunity threshold in about 50 days.  It is not a simulation of COVID 19.

They then explain herd immunity, etc....

Then they say, why is herd immunity not a good solution for COVID 19?

1.) This is a highly contagious disease.  That pushed to a higher percentage of the population needing to get it before there is a chance of herd immunity - and that chance is contingent (see below).
2.) We don't know the extent to which antibodies help us.  So far, the reports of reinfection seem to be situations in which the original infection has not left the body and the positive tests down the road after being free of symptoms may be evidence of resurgence, not reinfection.  However, we do not know how quickly this RNA virus will mutate.  We do not know if our bodies complete kill off the virus in our bodies.  And we do not know if the virus is being killed off enough to keep us from getting symptoms again, but is leaving us capable of transmission (or, at least, leaving a percentage of the population).  The scariest version of this concern would be for our immunity to wear off before we reach herd immunity.  That is unlikely in this case given the rate this thing spreads... unless we're prolonging the spread by flattening the curve.  A lot is unknown here, although there is reason to be positive that this is going to be something where getting it once gives you protection for a while from being sick again.
3.) Finally - due to the highly contagious nature of this bug, the amount of people needed to reach herd immunity is high.  Assuming we get there before people lose their protection from transmission / getting symptoms, we'll have essentially the entire population have it.  As there is little we can do for the people that get it and get very sick, that could mean millions die in the US over a few cycles.

And when you factor in that the high estimate for percentage of population infected based upon studies in NY, a hotspot, is 21% and the herd immunity requirement is likely between 70 and 90%...  We are going to have more rounds until an effective vaccine is distributed enough to push us across the herd immunity threshold.

If you play with the sliders, their model says that we'd only be in a danger of perpetual infection (where we lose immunity before the virus disappears) if we lost immunity over a 3 or 4 month period.  However, this does not factor in the nuances of the virus resurfacing.  For example, if we lose immunity after a year, and there are people that sneezed on a frozen package and open it a year later, and get just enough virus and bad luck combined, we could have a new patient zero and no immunity in the general population.

So herd immunity is unlikely to help us much because most people will get sick before the virus burns itself out - and there is a chance it could fail to eradicate the virus entirely for several reasons and that we could lose immunity before it resurfaces.

The final lines:
Quote
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die. In New York, even having 21 percent of the population exposed, if that serological survey is accurate, has overrun hospitals and led to the death of one in every 400 New Yorkers, while the vast majority of the population remains susceptible.

“That’s the cost of getting to 20 percent,” said Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral epidemiology researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland. “It really illustrates the price you’re going to pay if you want to get up to the 60 percent or 70 percent that you’ll need for herd immunity, and I hope it really illustrates why that just isn’t a feasible plan.”

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #661 on: May 14, 2020, 10:15:31 AM

Like I said their model, unlike some others, doesn't include hospital capacity, so again it's pointless to include the model if they are using the danger of running out of hospital capacity as part of their argument about why trying to achieve herd immunity is bad thing. Also saying we can't achieve herd immunity because the death toll would be too high is also different than what their title implies which is that herd immunity is not possible to achieve at all.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with their conclusion trying to achieve herd immunity here in the US is not going to fly or their methodology -- I did the exact same modeling over in the Politics version of this thread:

http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1539496#msg1539496
http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1539499#msg1539499
http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1540000#msg1540000

I'm just saying it's very poorly argued, especially by throwing in that model.
Sir T
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Reply #662 on: May 15, 2020, 08:18:38 PM

Anyone heard from Grimfain? He was right at the point this thing can turn on you, and he hasn't posted to say he is ok.

Hic sunt dracones.
Trippy
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Reply #663 on: May 15, 2020, 08:38:35 PM

He's been reading the forums today.
Gimfain
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Reply #664 on: May 15, 2020, 09:22:43 PM

I was just waiting for my body to go back to normal and thought of things I normally do after being hit by a regular flu or common cold and make sure to not do that stupid shit this time. My voice, sense of taste and smell is slowly recovering.

When you ask for a miracle, you have to be prepared to believe in it or you'll miss it when it comes
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