Flight MH370

[calapine]

I didn't know about Lufthansa training in the US, but I do know that the Luftwaffe main Eurofighter training-center moved from Germany to the US (Holloman AFB, New Mexico) some years ago. Reasons given were a) round year good weather b) large empty flight zones.

Edit: Kelly did mentioned the "German air force". Missed that, sorry.

[Numtini]

Yeah, I always thought it was the weather. Maximum number of flyable days per year.

[Ghambit]

You're guys are talking specifically about a line-item of an air force, wherein I'm talking about the entire aviation complex.  
Anyways.

Interesting developments with the new search area.  Shaved it off an hour basically (685 statute miles less).  
They've always assumed a low altitude flight, as if it was at FL350 the plane would've flown even further; at max fuel load and performance it should get 7700nm range - 17hrs of flight time.  I doubt they put that much fuel in the plane, but no one has that exact figure but officials.

edit:  yes, weather is a factor when considering AZ or NM.  Riddle has their new school in n. AZ btw, mainly because it's near year-round flight weather even better than Florida.

[WayAbvPar]

Malayasian authorities are now saying we may never know what happened. Is this just ass-covering for incompetence, or did something even worse happen? I just can't shake the feeling that they either fucked up big time in tracking/controlling the flight, or they shot it down or something strange. Did this guy get a new gig?

[Furiously]

I saw that episode of fringe.....

[Venkman]

or they shot it down or something strange.

Before the whole "world is big"|"that area of uninhabited water is big" mentality set in, my first thought was another TWA800 where MH370 was shot down and nobody wanted to admit it. I'd like to hope that's not the case. I'd like to hope the resources in the area are committed enough to not give up. But it's difficult to imagine an endless search, and the daily updates on "Airline/Country X just spotted via radar/satellite/flyover some debris" are subsiding.

[KallDrexx]

Supposedly Chinese vessel picks up 'pulse signal' from South Indian Ocean

[Ghambit]

Supposedly Chinese vessel picks up 'pulse signal' from South Indian Ocean

This is more likely
(you can hear them constantly through the bottom of most any boat, even w/o a hydrophone)

Even more likely, they just heard the depth sounder from another vessel (or their own)... which sounds almost exactly the same as the black box periodic signal depending on how deep you want the sounder to work.  (deeper sounders ping slower then shallower ones; about 1/sec).  Note: active sonar is different then a depth sounder "ping."  The latter is not a ping at all, but a click like the black box.  The former is more like the ping from a sub.  Any surface vessel would need a towable array to see that deep though (15k feet?); with a long periodic low frequency "blast" to reach the bottom and get a return (if towed shallow).

They did say the sound was fairly regular over a period of 1.5 mins.  We shall see.  AUS didnt seem overly excited to send resources to investigate.   
Recall, the Chinese were silly enough to pluck a jellyfish out of the water thinking it was aircraft debris.  These were "seamen" mind you.

[MahrinSkel]

For reasons that would take this thread straight to Politics, China desperately wants a "Naval Victory" such as being the ones that find the first definitive evidence of MH370.  I'm not saying they'd make stuff up, but they're pre-disposed to interpret ambiguous evidence favorably and inexperienced at this kind of operation.

--Dave

[Ghambit]

That said, they do have much better aircraft for low-speed visual reconnaisance.  I love the Ilyushin II's for that purpose.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-76

For all the tech. those P-3/8's carry, they're shittastic for search and rescue (small windows, low cockpit vis, higher speed, low-wing interference, higher alt).  Those Illyushins can locate anything visually just about, and then drop support resources right on the target (food/water, liferafts, pumps, etc.).  It's why the USCG uses modified C-130s and Jayhawks rather then P-3s generally.

I kinda hope the Chinese find it first, as it's mostly their citizens involved.  Just imagine what the s. Indian Ocean would look like if it was 240 Americans onboard.  You'd have the entire 7th Fleet out there.

[calapine]

For reasons that would take this thread straight to Politics, China desperately wants a "Naval Victory" such as being the ones that find the first definitive evidence of MH370.  I'm not saying they'd make stuff up, but they're pre-disposed to interpret ambiguous evidence favorably and inexperienced at this kind of operation.

--Dave

Well, I can't blame them really. When 200+ of your citizens disappear any government will be pressed to be seen "doing something".

For reference, this is current search area and place of the supposed ping:






Off-topic, plane related:

Really enjoyed this video of a Pilot's View of Airbus A380 approach and landing at San Francisco. For starters the view is really nice, San Fransisco is very pretty from above. The video itself is quite well done (lots of different camera perspectives) and quite informative to see how the landing of a modern airliner works. Finally, the pilots are soo cliche German in their dialect and mannerisms...I couldn't help giggling throughout.  

Overall well worth watching, 4/4 flaps up!

[Ghambit]

So I just sat and listened to an entire press conference plus explanation from the US Navy liason and it's becoming fairly apparent that they've likely found the plane (audibly) on the bottom of the sea near the northern edge of the refined search area - this being where the AUS Ocean Shield carrying the US Navy equipment is.  The Chinese detection?  dunno wtf that was about, but it's been theorized that it might've been attenuated noise from the same northern location over a distance of 300km.  Both recorders are located in the tail, so it's unlikely one would've sunk 300km further then the other.

Pretty extraordinary they were able to pull this off, given all they had was the maths to go by... buuuut yah, I think we can assume they had some help from a few nuke subs in the area.  There's no way in hell they were coincidentally in exactly the right spot to pull off a surface detection at 3knots in an area that big.  A passive listening sub at 30kts can cover way the hell more ground with much better equipment; then direct surface assets via ULF if need be.

Best theory now is that the plane hit the water largely in one piece, which sadly will drive the victims' families insane Im sure. 

[Jeff Kelly]

Signal vanished. If it came from the flight data recorder it probably ran out of energy.

[Tale]

Malayasian authorities are now saying we may never know what happened.

This:

[RhyssaFireheart]

Holy hell, that infographic.    It's one thing to have someone say "It's about 3 miles deep in this area" but having it shown like that really brings it home that there are places and things simply out of our reach on our own planet. 

[Ghambit]

Signal vanished. If it came from the flight data recorder it probably ran out of energy.

Yah, they picked it back up yesterday but given the power profile of the batts they use (lithium polymer evidently) the signal should soon drop out fairly suddenly.
Sounds insensitive, but I'm looking forward to a sci-eng based documentary once all this gets sorted out.  It really is a triumph of engineering how this thing was found; of course, those who pray a lot will say it's a miracle and so forth.

[WayAbvPar]

It is the mirror of the failing of engineering that caused the crash in the first place 

Although, as an employee of a Boeing subsidiary, I am praying it is some sort of operational and/or maintenance issue rather than design or manufacture.

[Ghambit]

No, it is the mirror of the failing of the regulated aviation beuracracy, not engineering.  Certified aviation is a joke.  I'll go into it if you'd like but only if people are interested in that particular soapbox.

[Jeff Kelly]

please do. as someone working in automotive I'm a sucker for stories as to how bad regulations and bureaucracy fuck up other industries. I mean it's hellishly bad in automotive so it must  be Even More rodiculous in Aviation.

[Merusk]

Heh automotive regulation: AKA laws to prop-up an antiquated business model and keep stakeholders whole. 

See: Telsa vs. Every Automotive Dealer Lobbyist in the US.

[Ghambit]

At least with the auto industry the regulation actually does keep stakeholders whole and prop up an industry.  For Aviation, it destroys it.  Everything in a certified aircraft (certified aircraft is basically any plane made by a manufacturer that isn't experimental - so Cessna, Piper, Boeing, all that), has to be approved by the FAA/DOT.  Everything.  Every nut, bolt, rivet, and so forth... including each and every piece of electro-mechanical hardware.  Many times, even it's an 'approved' piece of equipment, if you dont have a tag or it comes from an unlicensed station, you've got to fill out a heck of a lot of paperwork (many times requiring a lawyer + fees) and get a special inspection from a field officer; who then in his holiness may grace you with an STC (supplemental type certificate).    That item then of course must be installed by a licensed and insured station approved to install that component on that craft.

Now, this might not sound that bad... but the actual effort of getting approved to make/sell anything that goes into a plane is SO cost prohibitive that most companies just dont bother; and when they do they just pass the cost down to the consumer.  

Examples:
-A $75 air cylinder approved by the DOT for O2 (that anyone can buy off the shelf for home use), once it hits the aviation market, becomes a $500 cylinder - even though it's the same regulatory body.  So what happens?  Most folk will just use 20-yr old overweight steel cylinders or go with a portable system.
-A power-supplied xenon landing light vastly superior in every way... if it's not tagged for your plane? Cant use it.  Gotta use the 30-yr old $300 bulb that blows every two seconds and goes dim on landing at low RPM.
-New built-in GPIRB locators?  Cant use em.  Gotta stick with old VHF radio systems that no one listens to.  Or just use a portable.  You've still gotta have the old system in your plane though (and maintain it, get a signature, etc.)
-Got a nice FMS you bought from a reputable developer?  Too bad, you cant panel mount it nor have it permanent in any way.  Gotta stick with the ol' steam gauges; which are barely reliable and again, require signoffs and maintenance... and are more likely to get you killed.
-Fuel management?  Lolz.  Gotta stick with the 30 yr old fuelflow gauge that's broken.  Want to replace it?  $500.  Wanna fix it?  Uhh, $500 + your old one.  Wut?  There's one that a million times better and cheaper??  Too bad.  DIE.
-Oh wait, you wanna go "all glass" panel??    $40,000 please.  Nevermind a $300 panel-mounted Ipad would do the same thing; it's not 'legal' so eff off.  Please to be giving $40,000 to your nearest certified dealer/installer.  And oh yah, you HAVE to keep up with the proprietary monthly software updates that cost $100 per.  Oh, you found vastly superior software??  Lol, too bad.
-Solid-state artificial horizon??  LMAO.  Did you not hear me when I said DIE?  No no, you must keep the 60 yr-old vacuum guage tech. in there...  better yet, buy ANOTHER vacuum guage as a backup.  And it HAS to be inspected and overhauled every few years.  Throw that fancy self-redundant bullet-proof gauge away.  DIE!

... and on and on.  General Aviation is dead because of this.  This is how I sold my plane for more then I paid for it.  And my plane was over 30-yrs old.  That's how bad the market is for aviation - you have to spend so much money on bullshit that your plane actually appreciates.

Planes are the simplest machines we've got.  Literal lawnmowers with wings.  Cars are more complex.  Yet we act like planes are some kind of magic that must be contained and hyper-inflated to keep the muggles away.  Nevermind the fact that we re-built this country (New Deal + Eisenhower) under the assumption every other middle-american family would have a small aircraft.   That dream died in the Reagan era 80's.  The plane you could once buy for $12k new is now a $90k machine used with a $10k yearly maintenance bill attached.

It's a sad sad state of affairs.  A beautiful, romantic industry rent to nothing and destroyed by bloated govt. and well-to-do NIMBY oligarchs who want to rule the sky alone in their shit-spewing corporate jets.  (that are written off at the taxpayer's expense)

If I go back to aviation, it'll likely be in an experimental aircraft that I can maintain w/o being questioned.  Likely will take an existing airframe and modify to my liking after I get the 'ok' from the manufacturer.
And b4 you get snarky and say "well, that's one plane I wont be flying in."  Realize that experimental aircraft are by orders of magnitude safer and more efficient then certified aircraft; along with being cheaper to maintain.

And that my friends is the real reason it's taken well over a month to locate a $100m jumbo jet in the 21st century.  To take it further, it's likely the reason it went down in the 1st place... antiquated, innately flawed equipment that was too cost-prohibitive to re-develop and install.   EVERY aviation guru on CNN wants to say this, and they come close to, but never quite have the balls to do so.  You may have heard slight hints of it though.

[Viin]

^^ That's why I went Experimental. When there was an option between "steam gauges" and G1000 all glass in a Cessna 172, the G1000 was ~$75-100k add-on to the $280k base price.

There is a new category being considered for existing aircraft of certain sizes called Primary Category which would allow owner maintenance and install of ATSM approved equipment (not requiring FAA PMA/TSO cert). Would allow you to install stuff like a Dynon PFDs/MFDs for $12k vs $50-80k for a Garmin G1000. (Or install a Garmin G3X non-TSO'ed panel for about $12k if you like Garmin, which I do).

[Ghambit]

Even the Dynons are getting a bit ridiculous nowadays.  I could build the exact same system (with more flexibility) for like <$800+peripherals... complete with synthetic vision, HITS/GPS, weather, traffic, AP-coupling, all that.

FAA spends BILLIONS on shit like ADSB, highway-in-the-sky, etc... then they fail to give the consumer a viable way to use the technology.  But they're super quick to the draw when it comes to raising fuel taxes.  It's fuckstupid.

Dont even get me started on engine modifications.  Things that would literally keep you in the air (or keep from setting yourself on fire; like a 10-cent gasketed fuel transducer that isnt located right above a lava-hot manifold) are insanely hard and expensive to put in your plane.  And when you do, it's almost always a re-built part because no one makes them new (regulations again); and even then the prices are insane.

[angry.bob]

Have either of you considered going to night school or whatever and getting an A&P license? The material isn't hard at all to learn and if you can work on a 1960's Volkswagon you can work on an airplane. The only unpleasant thing from when I went was doing airworthiness directive searches and checking serial numbers on everything to see what applied. Having an A&P will let you do a whole lot more yourselves and cut down a ton on maintenance costs.

[Ghambit]

Yah, I know a lot of pilots that have done that.  It pretty much solves every issue we have.  One pilot I know was able to buy and maintain his own L-29 fighter due to becoming an A&P.  There's no way he would've be able to do-so w/o the licensing.  The problem with going that route though, is that it requires practical experience... which means you have to apprentice.  The guy I referred to b4 just got someone to pencil-whip his time instead.   

[Viin]

Yeah the 18-30 month apprenticeship requirement is the killer. I can't spend 30 months working an extra 6 hours/5 days a week to get an A&P. A technical school is better (I think only 18 months?) but usually expensive since they are private trade schools and require 8hrs a day. I'd love to do it though, I'm sure I'd learn a lot.

[Jeff Kelly]

Sinne the story has been completely dropped by all news outlets, does anybody know the current state of affairs?

[calapine]

• Wreck still hasn't been be found.
• All the debris reports so far have been bogus and not connected to the airplane.
• Search above water has been stopped, only underwater search with submarines continues.
• Malaysian government released a short 5 page "Preliminary report", which doesn't contain any new information.

Here the link to the report: http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-malaysia-releases-first-preliminary-report-on-missing-flight-mh370-1984083 (scroll down)

[Ghambit]

The most interesting thing of late has been the new spectral imaging of a possible object on the seafloor in the bay of bengal.  Unlikely it's the plane (so they say) but a few people are shitting their pants over that technology right now, for sure.  Personally, I bevlieve it needs to be checked out.  The data pointing to the current search area was never independently verified; in sci-eng circles we call that "useless data."  Until they do, there's no reason not to investigate other options.  And like I said, about the pings??  It's still possible they were pings from another craft's sounder (boat, sub, sonobouy, etc.); leading them on a complete wild goose chase.

Would you like to know more?
http://georesonance.com/

[Jeff Kelly]

Hopefully there will be an FAA report someday that discloses the search details so that interest parties can verify the conclusions made.

[Tale]

The party in government here in Australia is suffering some negative PR on various fronts at the moment. One of their tactics when they need a distraction seems to be "hold an MH370 press conference". Don't listen to us; we actually don't know shit. You've probably figured that out by now.

[Jeff Kelly]

Just a heads up: Malaysia and Imarsat today published the satellite data they used to calculate the trajectory of MH 370.

The disclosure already caused quite a stir among experts. Apparently the document is 40+ pages long but acoording to experst only maybe two or three of them actually contain data meaningful and necessary to the calculation of said trajectory. The other stuff is just 'noise' and irrelevant data.

Also even those 40+ pages don't seem to contain everything Inmarsat should have.

[Tale]

Everything we told you was bullshit. MH370 is not in the Indian Ocean.



(read more)

[Cheddar]

Everything we told you was bullshit. MH370 is not in the Indian Ocean.



(read more)

Did you read the article?

[KallDrexx]

Alien theory still on track!