Flight MH370

[Lantyssa]

Has the US media gotten bored and stopped reporting on it?

Huh?  There was a missing plane?

We vaguely remember something about that now that you mention it...

[KallDrexx]

Has the US media gotten bored and stopped reporting on it?

Huh?  There was a missing plane?

We vaguely remember something about that now that you mention it...

You don't remember the alien terrorists?

[Ghambit]

It's now been confirmed officially that the plane indeed went down right around where the search area is currently;  Southern Indian Ocean.  Basically the US and the UK were the ones spearheading the data research to come to a final, definitive solution.  Evidently, it was a relative certainty the moment they started moving the Kidd (out of the northern area) and the P-8 (to the southern area).  UK/Inmarsat then was able to get a true triangulation either with another satellite or (more likely) using doppler shift for a regional bearing. 

Families were informed via text msg.   

They've likely known since the 12th, but with all the political wrangling and back-forth between bureaucracies/large-corps there was no way to quickly verify information as it came in.  The NTSB had to provide the initial gravitas to get the ball rolling at least; which they did.

They are also now reporting a more definitive sudden drop in altitude, just as I suspected in my prior summations.  There's still no way they make an eastern airfield in time for an emergency descent though (not sure why the 'experts' would think that), along with likely fighting the problem.  In both situations (fire and/or instrumentation blackout) you would make this sudden descent, both to get down quickly and to avoid traffic.  It's becoming clearer the plane was flying on FMS until the last waypoint somewhere over western Malaysia, then the AP kept the final heading and alt-hold until flameout.  Butterworth's radar data is the key, but no one's really talking about that - which means someone at that station dropped the ball, if there was even anyone there.  Supposedly there's a joint AUS/MS military station there, but again, was likely not even manned.

You can throw out any relatively sudden turn to the south as there's no way they fly over Kuala Lumpur or Singapore space w/o being seen.  Either they flew the route I cited, or they went NW over the Malacca Straits to buy some more time (getting their bearings and fighting the problem) before a final approach southbound, wherein they succumbed... flying indefinitely over BFE.

The fuck didnt someone in the cabin help out???  Especially if you've got a bevy of Freescale engineers aboard.  Something really, really bad happened on that plane.  At this point I'm hoping there was simple a decompression because most other scenarios involve much suffering.  The worst would allude to the photo I upped of Egyptair's 777 fire.  Cockpit inferno with eventual airframe burn-through.  If that happened in-flight you'd get loss of instruments, pilotage, and cabin due to fire and decompression.

I'll get on my 'certified aviation' soapbox in another post.  A lot of 'wtf, this is the 21st century, how do we lose a jumbo jet' rhetoric on the nets.  I have the answer for you and you wont like it.

[Merusk]

Shit.   I hope it was a decompression.  Otherwise passengers panic knowing you're dead already because the cockpit is gone. Ugh I hadn't even considered that one.

[Jeff Kelly]

Whatever it was I suppose it was not a catastrophic event (at first). When the co-pilot signed off everything still seemed to be normal.  All of the 'somebody turned off the transponder and ACARS deliberately' talk was likely a relatively slow moving issue. At first systems dropped out the crew likely didn't even notice and by the time they did notice it was probably too late.

Electrical fires are devious bastards. They smolder more than burn due to closed confinement (inside a wall, in a duct etc.) but the wire insulation still provides enough fuel for the fire to not go out. The burning plastic produces poisonous and noxious fumes that creep out of light fixtures, switches, and openings and can incapacitate you and you usually notice it too late. Once the fire has burned through the wall or to an opening it flares up and turns into a full blown blaze.

As to 'why didn't anyone do something?'. You know as well as I that it is unlikely somebody would have been able to do anything if the whole crew was incapacitated. They'd have trouble even entering the cockpit if the door was shut and even if you could you'd need a trained pilot to get the thing anywhere and a trained team of avionics engineers or technicians with access to parts and tools to have any chance of fixing something. There's nothing a team of Freescale employees could have done. There's probably not much a team of trained airplane techs could have done if they were on that flight instead.

The best safety measure for such kinds of event is simply to make damn sure that something like that must not and cannot happen.

[KallDrexx]

Whatever it was I suppose it was not a catastrophic event (at first). When the co-pilot signed off everything still seemed to be normal.  All of the 'somebody turned off the transponder and ACARS deliberately' talk was likely a relatively slow moving issue. At first systems dropped out the crew likely didn't even notice and by the time they did notice it was probably too late.
The best safety measure for such kinds of event is simply to make damn sure that something like that must not and cannot happen.

All the talk about the systems going off before the pilot said "goodnight" was a complete mis-interpretation by the media.  The truth of the matter is the last ping happened at X, pilot said goodnight at Y, and neither transponder checked in at Z.  They don't know when the first transponder actually got turned off they just know that it should have checked back in after the pilot said goodnight but never did.

[Jeff Kelly]

I know. If the event had been sudden and catastrophic though the plane would have continued on to the next waypoint and not changed course. If on the other hand any communication system had still worked by the time they descended, they would at least have sent a mayday.

[Ghambit]

The flight crew have access to the cockpit via coded lock.  If the pilots became incap., they can still get in.    Reason I wonder why someone didnt do something is because it's obvious the AP was still functioning.  If you've still got access to it you can still manipulate the aircraft even if the main flight controls are burnt through.  Like I said, it's a separate system so indications are it survived whatever happened, including maybe the autothrottle.

I cited the Freescale guys because they'd have the mindset (if there werent other pilots in the plane) to grok the solution aside from the crew.  Maybe some of those guys were even familiar with the systems.  The fact it was night-time plays a big role (they may have just gotten lost b4 succumbing entirely) but I still believe the cabin had to be incap. as well, which means either asphyxiation from a fire or suffocation via decompression.

I read most planes have finished removing their inflight phone service, so MH370 probably didnt have that option.  The next is inflight wifi or crew satcomm.  None of that was used though.  Whole plane had to go 'dark' or people perished somewhat quickly.    

edit: maybe the AP interface (head unit) was shot but the system itself intact.

[Simond]

I'm guessing Greek ghost plane redux - the crew barely manages to put the autopilot on before they run out of air, which then dumbly follows nav points and carries on flying on the last heading until the engines flame out. In all honestly that's probably the least bad outcome for the crew and passengers at this point - anything else boils down to being trapped, concious, in a flying coffin for hours while you know that you are going to die.

[Jeff Kelly]

I'm sorry to say that but at a certain point there's nothing you can do.

I'm intimately familiar with automotive ECUs (electronic control units) I know all of the tools, I've helped develop and bring to market quite a few. I know the tech inside and out.

I also wouldn't be able to do anything if I ever was in a vehicle that went out of control on a highway at speed.

The tools are so specialized, everything is so complex and so tightly integrated that there is virtually no chance that you could do anything once the plane is airborne. If pulling all of the breakers and relying on fall-back systems or manual controls doesn't help then there's nothing you could do without access to manuals, computers, expensive tools and a dedicated workshop.

That is if those Freescale employees even had any experience with avionics systems. The best bet is that enough of your plane is operational that you can get it to ground.

[MahrinSkel]

Yeah, my ex-wife asked me if there were people inside for 6 hours, why didn't they use the satellite comms the engines were hooked up to, to call for help.  Basically, because they would have to have exhaustive knowledge of both satellite communications systems, *and* exactly how it was installed in the 777.  There probably isn't anyone in the world who could have done it in less than a week and access to all of the diagrams, and only a few dozen that could have done even that.  Doing it on an operating aircraft before the fuel runs out?  Forget it, MacGuyver would take one look at it and say "We're fucked".  Similar problems with trying to fly the aircraft if the cockpit was gutted by fire, it's not like there's a place you can hook up a joystick.

That's setting aside the question of air, odds are everybody was unconscious or dead long before the plane went into the water.  Possibly even before the plane reached the end of the FMS course, which appears to have been programmed by the pilot as a matter of safety procedure.

--Dave

[TheWalrus]

I'm intimately familiar with automotive ECUs (electronic control units) I know all of the tools, I've helped develop and bring to market quite a few. I know the tech inside and out.

So you're one of the bastards on my list!!! 

[Jeff Kelly]

If it were up to me those things wouldn't suck, at least not as much.

[KallDrexx]

That's setting aside the question of air, odds are everybody was unconscious or dead long before the plane went into the water.  Possibly even before the plane reached the end of the FMS course, which appears to have been programmed by the pilot as a matter of safety procedure.

--Dave

How does the air you normally breathe work in an airplane at 35k feet?  Is it a special system that pressurizes the air that once it goes out no more air comes into the cabin?

[MahrinSkel]

That's setting aside the question of air, odds are everybody was unconscious or dead long before the plane went into the water.  Possibly even before the plane reached the end of the FMS course, which appears to have been programmed by the pilot as a matter of safety procedure.

--Dave

How does the air you normally breathe work in an airplane at 35k feet?  Is it a special system that pressurizes the air that once it goes out no more air comes into the cabin?

The Smithsonian has an article that is probably less wrong than I would be.  Point is, if there's been a major fire in the cockpit and there's a big hole, the air pressure at 35,000 feet isn't enough to maintain consciousness without supplemental oxygen, and those systems are only meant to work for 15-30 minutes.  It's only speculation that there was a fire, but it does fit the known facts and it wouldn't be the first for a 777.



If you've got a hole like that in in the aircraft, and can't get below about 20,000, nobody is going to be conscious for long.

--Dave

[Ghambit]

Yeah, my ex-wife asked me if there were people inside for 6 hours, why didn't they use the satellite comms the engines were hooked up to, to call for help.  Basically, because they would have to have exhaustive knowledge of both satellite communications systems, *and* exactly how it was installed in the 777.  There probably isn't anyone in the world who could have done it in less than a week and access to all of the diagrams, and only a few dozen that could have done even that.  Doing it on an operating aircraft before the fuel runs out?  Forget it, MacGuyver would take one look at it and say "We're fucked".  Similar problems with trying to fly the aircraft if the cockpit was gutted by fire, it's not like there's a place you can hook up a joystick.

--Dave

The sat-comm I refer to is a simple handset usually located in the attendant's area.  You pick it up... you dial.  That's it.  Since they've taken them out of the seats, you now just ask the attendant. There's likely another one in the cockpit, but since we're assuming the cockpit was unusable, that's a no-go.  The ACARS was able to get pinged... assuming the sat-comm uses the same array, it's possible it was still intact along with the inflight wi-fi (also satellite-based).  Maybe the main buss went out or something and the subsystems still had power, but there was no power to the head-units.  (this has happened to me with craft I've piloted, both air and sea)  Many times displays and the like will be on a main buss and the actual unit will be on a more un-interruptable power supply.

[KallDrexx]

If you've got a hole like that in in the aircraft, and can't get below about 20,000, nobody is going to be conscious for long.

--Dave

Wasn't there a finding that the plane might have cruised at 5,000 feet for a while?

Thanks for the article.

[Jeff Kelly]

If you've got a hole like that in in the aircraft, and can't get below about 20,000, nobody is going to be conscious for long.

That is an aluminium hull I suppose? If so the fire was at roughly 1200°C (or it would be at sea level). The melting point of 7075 aluminium alloy is lower than that (about 700°C) but it contains 2% - 3% Magnesium which will oxydize once exposed.

With that kind of flames burning inside the cockpit breathing is only one of your concerns really

[angry.bob]

How does the air you normally breathe work in an airplane at 35k feet?  Is it a special system that pressurizes the air that once it goes out no more air comes into the cabin?

THe linked Smithsonian article is good but long. The TLDR version is the plane takes in compressed air from the back of the compressor section of the jet engines and after cooling it lets it into the cabin. At the same time there's a valve in the cabin that lets air out of cabin to maintain a set pressure. New air is pretty much always entering the cabin and at the same time exiting via the outflow valve. For less pressure open the valve a little more, more pressure open it a little less.

[KallDrexx]

Malaysia says there's sealed evidence on MH370 that cannot be made public

 

[IainC]

Trying to cover up some potentially embarrassing security issue is pretty much the only explanation I can think of for the otherwise baffling information releases from the Malaysian authorities.

[Torinak]

Trying to cover up some potentially embarrassing security issue is pretty much the only explanation I can think of for the otherwise baffling information releases from the Malaysian authorities.

Obviously, they have proof of (insert conspiracy theory here) that (powerful group) wants suppressed! It's the only possible explanation, at least from what the media tells me. The real question is whether it's the literal Hand of God, aliens, or (politics).

[Chimpy]

They are probably covering up some major incompetence rather than some mad conspiracy or criminal actions.

[IainC]

Yeah, this is where we find out that Malaysia doesn't turn its military radar on unless they are asked to or something.

[Ghambit]

For them, there are a lot of national elements to this crash.  Malaysia Airlines is a national carrier, that's been in trouble and bleeding money the past few years; this almost always results in lax internal regulation, which of course leads to negligence, and then an accident.  (I've lost friends and relatives in a crash because of this - see: Chalks Ocean Airways).

Then you run into the radar & comms issue.  No country can be expected to maintain FAA levels of tracking, not even the UK.  This is why intl students come to the US to learn how to fly; there's just no comparison with any other system in the world.  Unfortunately, people around the world expect just that... FAA levels of tracking and regulation.  They just cant get it.  All you have to do is study the avcharts to see that, or even better - learn to fly and fly around in other countries a while.  Not hard to get mysteriously 'lost' in these places.  To add some perspective, much of the third world literally charges you for each and every comm. you make.  Want flight tracking?  $20 prease.  Oh hai, how's the weather??  $10 dorrar.   "When you land, talk to my cousin Loubens about port agency.  He hook you up.  Make customs real easy.  $100 dollah."  It's a totally different world.

There is definitely an issue with the Butterworth radar though.  There's no excuse a joint MS/AUS military station + commercial airport could mistrack and lose a jumbo jet in their space.  The conclusion is it's just a 'micky fick' operation.  Simple as that.  Granted, we're talkin 'redeye' timeframes here, but still.  There are expensive national assets (weaponry) on the ground.  Either the commercial station should stay open 24-7 or the military one should, or both.

Beyond that, the Andaman/Nicobar region lost the plane too, assuming the plane even went there.  That's vaunted Indian territory, wherein they're supposed to have this magically impenetrable radar coverage, plus surface command/ships.     Hence partially why I didnt think the plane even went that direction - you now see the news updating their tracking graphics to show this... the plane just fades out over Butterworth.

It's the third world.  :shrug  Why should we expect more, really.

[MahrinSkel]

And now you know why I found it completely reasonable to think that the plane could have crossed into China via Bangladesh and flown through western China unobserved.  I know what it takes to maintain the "No sparrow shall fall" level of radar coverage the US has, and that even comparatively high-tech countries in Asia have nowhere near the same level of coverage.

--Dave

[ajax34i]

Unrelated comment:  so what you're saying is stealth technology isn't really necessary considering everyone else's level of radar coverage.

[Ghambit]

The problem with that theory is they've gotta get past two Indian ADIZ's to pull that off (along with a lot of charted eastern indian radar coverage)...  Adaman and mainland India, even if creeping through Bangladesh (which would be impossible if flying near Dhaka).  Also, it's a lot different when aircraft are leaving an ADIZ as opposed to entering.   You're ignored if you're leaving, you're an issue if you're entering.  This is why if you fly you always try to stay inside the boundary because once you leave you've got to go into a completely different tracking system w/discrete squawk code.  If you leave and come back w/o one, the jets scramble.

I suppose it's possible, but definitely not on a direct course and set altitude.  Makes me wanna fire up the old F-19 (117) Stealth Fighter sim.    Anyone else play that game as a kid?  It's awesome and really gives you a feel for radar evasion and planning.  edit:  not that I'd need that skill or anything   

[MahrinSkel]

Unrelated comment:  so what you're saying is stealth technology isn't really necessary considering everyone else's level of radar coverage.

Depends on what kind of losses you're willing to soak up, and how much somebody is specifically looking for you.  Even in a pre-stealth era, U-2's over-flying the Soviets would often evade radar coverage without even really trying, simply by flying a hundred miles outside of the direct approach lanes before turning.  The Indians?  Pfft, outside of the regions facing Pakistan their coverage is a joke, and the Bangladeshis are worse.  China, not so much, but most of their serious attention is directed towards Russia.

Radar is always throwing off false positives and noise, throw in some weather and operator fatigue and it's easy enough to be missed.

--Dave

EDIT:  Keep in mind, until fairly recently it was trivially easy to fly from Mexico or Canada into the US without anybody noticing.  Military-grade approach detection is expensive and until recently manpower-intensive, and most of the latest gear hasn't been exported by anyone yet.

[Jeff Kelly]

The reason people learn to fly in the US is that you have lots of open space where there are no settlements for hundreds of miles.  So no one is being bothered by the noise and there will be no major catastrophes should a training flight crash.

Germany or in fact most of western/central Europe has facilities on par or even surpassing those of the US that even can be maintained more easily (much less surface area to cover). Yet even the venerable Lufthansa teaches their pilots in its own flight school in the US. This is because it's much easier to schedule and get permits for training flights somewhere like Montana instead of a crowded airspace like Germany.

[NowhereMan]

Other popular training destinations include New Zealand. Again I'm going to guess related more to uninhabited training space than NZ's incredible radar infrastructure and highly developed Air traffic monitoring systems.

[Ghambit]

Uhhh no.  Europeans who have the whole of Europe to fly (and inherently the world) do not come to the US for "open space."

The US practically has an airfield every 20 miles (because of Eisenhower).  In this country, in the 50's and 60's mainly, it was largely thought every other family would have a plane and the govt. spent many many billions to push that agenda, aside from being at the forefront of every element of aviation.  You cannot fly anywhere in this entire continent w/o being safely in contact with someone/thing on the ground.  And when you get on the ground, have full service (fuel, repairs, logistics, EMS, etc.) at just about any point you can think of.  On top of all that, aeronautics/aerospace in the US is just flat out the best.  It's had its ups and downs due to policy, but its rank has never been in question.  Shit, the US's third best aeronautical/space eng. school (MIT) is still better than anywhere else in the world. There is no comparison.  None.  Not even close.  This is w/o even considering NASA or even the military complex; which blow away most every other country just by themselves even on infrastructure alone.  That is why people come here to train.

To add another perspective, you can be dead in the air w/zero engine power just about anywhere in this country and not break a sweat; even in the "open spaces."  Look over your shoulder and there's likely a controlled airfield with repair services you can land.  When you land, there's fresh lattes, a crew car, plane washdown/fueling, and a hot stewardess to make your hotel arrangements for you while you check the weather and grab a nap and a blowjob in the fully appointed pilot lounge.  Pilots.  Here.  Are damned spoiled.  It's a running joke in aviation.

In contrast to all that self-dicksucking though, the US is scaling back its aviation complex.  Small fields, even regionals, have been closing all over the country to appease greedy housing developers.  Fuel taxes have gotten so high that most G.A. cant afford to fly w/o a taxable business around it.  More importantly, it's so deeply regulated now that 'certified' aviation is not even close to being the safest, most efficient way to fly (you see that in MH370).  And the A&Ps charge you up the yang for simple repairs (if you can afford the parts).   I've gone on record in saying that I refuse to even buy back into certified GA. If I came back it'd be fully experimental.

[Fabricated]

[Ironwood]

Oh Dear God, is that a shop ?  please ?


 

[Jeff Kelly]

Uhhh no.  Europeans who have the whole of Europe to fly (and inherently the world) do not come to the US for "open space."

So Lufthansa flight training and the German Airforce chose Goodyear, AZ as the site for their flight schools for its urban lifestyle and state of the art infrastructure? I don't think so.

Maybe, just maybe, it's the fact that Arizona has a population density of 57 ppl/sq mi and a climate that ensures good weather conditions for most of the year and - unlike Central Europe - is not the most crowded airspace in the world. You can also easily expand into Utah, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. That's an area the size of Europe with an average population density of 35ppl/sq. mi. or 1/10th to 1/15th that of Europe.

To put it into context. Arizona is almost as big as Germany (80% of the size of Germany), has a population density of the aformentioned 57 ppl/sq mi and operates 12 commercial airports that have more than 2,500 passenger boardings per year, while Germany has a population density of 583 ppl/sq. mi., much more unpredictable weather conditions and operates 39 commercial airports that have more than 10,000 passenger boardings per year (over 500 airports in total). In fact the top 5 German airports combined serve more passengers per year than probably all of the airports in that 5 state area combined.

That is a fucking buttload of 'open space'