Flight MH370

[Shannow]

To tie it back to f13 (however vague)..its all the fault of video games .

The guy did have a pretty nice flight sim setup (which I'm too lazy to post a pic of).

[Jeff Kelly]

I don't get the media's angle on that particular bit of info either. They now analyse everything that would be normal or at most slightly weird behaviour as suspicious just because something has happened.

If I would expect anyone to have a sophisticated flight simulator setup at home it would of course be a pilot. Especially in a part of the world where access to a commercial simulator might be problematic. That he might have trained approaches or landings on airports in Oceania or Asia is also not unusual. he is flying those routes so better to be prepared.

It's also not at all weird that he has deleted files from his computer. Everyone of us deletes countless files each day.

I expect that nothing will come from this angle of investigation, except the knowledge that a 777 captain owned a personal flight simulator.

If they'd have found a book called 'how to steal a jetliner' or '101 ways to crash a plane into the ocean' they might be on to something but right now it seems like normal if slighly odd behaviour and nothing else

[Shannow]

shhhh, you're ruining the NARRATIVE!

[Ghambit]

You're forgetting this is a dirty Muslim event and the pilots are brown.   

If we wanna go there though, again, the co-pilot would be the one to look at.  The Captain was evidently a devout atheist (per his fb page), more of a techno-geek then anything else.  The co-pilot was a religious muslim and likely a financially strapped one at that.  He was also the last one on comms.

Tenured major airline pilots who do not believe in god and have a family at home do not purposely steal or crash a plane.

[lamaros]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-20/abbott-says-possible-objects-found-mh370/5334314

"New and credible information has come to light in relation to the search ... in the south Indian Ocean," Mr Abbott told Parliament during Question Time.

"The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search."

Still calling accident.

[Ghambit]

Yah this is being verified as we speak.  Gonna take the aircraft a while to get onsite though.  The object measurements are consistent with one of the wings (24mts).  If it turns out to be true, that means the plane didnt disintegrate upon landing and maybe there were survivors... though they'd be dead from exposure after 14 days.  :(

edit:  gonna have to wait for verification from a nearby merchant ship (a few hours away).  The way that works (recall I am a boat captain), is essentially the coast guard says "you need to get your ass over there."  Whatever you were doing, you basically have to drop (the unwritten code of the sea and all that). I've been re-tasked before a few times - mostly for broke down weekend warriors, but once to pluck 2 half-drowning kids out the inlet.  Another time I found an immigrant raft.  And another I found something I cannot discuss publicly.

[Jeff Kelly]

I don't feel guilty speculating since I'm a mere forum dweller and bored. The mystery is also always more fun and interesting than the dire reality.

On the other hand though it seems to me that the official invetigation was also so engrossed in its owm theories about foul play and 'ermergerd terrrer' that they've dismissed the most likely explanations. Remember they searched indian ocean and the northern corridor first, even though the path of the plane would have made indian ocean or southern corridor more likely.

Maybe they could've made a difference if the information about a the likely flight path had been made available sooner and the australian authorities had reached the seatch area sooner. Maybe the whole style of reporting and discussion about the event would even have been different then.

[calapine]

The Malaysian information policy certainly wasn't opitmal.

Another info-graphic:

[Ghambit]

Okay, the below flight route link surmises some of my thinking (now that I've sat down and examined the avcharts).  It starts at point of last contact and ends at the current search location (west-northwest of the current debris, given drift patterns).  Note: you can zoom in/out and change from IFR lo/hi and VFR charts.  VFR will show you more actual 'visual' information while the IFR will show you more flight lanes and so forth.  The thinking is (shortly after losing contact with the plane halfway to vietnam), the pilot made the emergency turn home and activated the updated emergency route.  He would've chosen the nearest airport with enough runway and a safe enough approach. 

Langkawi was a good initial theory, but upon researching that strip - it requires an approach on runway 03 (northbound) due to terrain.  Also, there are no published navpoints that'd allow the plane to end up where it theoretically is now, assuming a southbound approach.  So my next thought was Narathewat; a southbound approach there would line up pretty well with the current crash location (though it would require a left turn after that waypoint); the problem with this theory is on its way south it would've put it over Kuala Lumpurs main radar complex.  The plane would've been detected.

Then I thought maybe Narathewat was the initial point for another further along, and I found Panang and Butterworth.  Assuming a southbound approach for Panang, if you line that up with a published IFR flight route, you come up with Alor Starr as the approach point.  It lines up absolutely perfectly.  Basically the computer would fly those NDB/VOR routes until it ran out of waypoints and from thenceforth simply keep the plane straight and level at altitude until fuel runs out.  Assuming a cockpit fire that got bad enough, the pilots would have no GPS to go by and the AP would be left to do all the work either through a standby passive GPS or internal guidance using compass with aforementioned land-based beacons at those particular airports.  All after the pilot initially inputted them into the FMS.

You might be thinking why not just use the published intersections instead of the airports (like the infamous GIVAL or LEVAT).  Well, the reason is those intersections are largely 'virtual' in this case.  There is no ground transmitter there so the plane would only be able to fly those assuming the GPS is still working; though if the system had enough triangulation from land-based beacons, it is doable (I had such a system in my plane, called an RNAV; it was awesome).  Given the pilots likely lost most instrumentation, I doubt they'd input a virtual intersection for navigational purposes.

Then you might be thinking well wouldnt those fields pick the plane up on radar?  Nope.  Those airports are closed then and radar service isnt really manned except by request (unlike kuala lumpur).  Tower services are definitely not manned, though you can get approach radar service if needed.  Even if there's someone sitting at their station in the wee hours (not likely), guess what... at FL (flight-level) you'd fly right over the top of those radar's service areas (out of range).  Literally, you'd hear not a peep from the tower most times unless you were on a flight-following program (flight plan).  Since this flight was diversionary, there would be no such scheduled flight plan, hence no such communication.  Even if the radar operator saw the plane, so what... it's not their jurisdiction to supply contact to a craft at FL350 (35000ft).  Butterworth is the closest station, but again it's closed and if manned - it tops out at FL245.  So you see the dilemma here with regards to the reliability of radar info. from this region.

Moving on, the plane is just flying the waypoints with no pilot input.  It flies right over the final waypoint at Panang from Alor Star w/o pilot input and heads for the south indian ocean.  Not a single radar station is within range of this flight path, so the plane is lost.

http://skyvector.com/?ll=-17.58538323336866,108.83496092729055&chart=302&zoom=14&plan=F.WS.IGARI:N.VT.NT:V.WM.VAS:G.-38.50519139625133,92.55102538098568

disclaimer:  just my geeky conjecture on what might've happened. It's not what I necessarily 'believe' happened, but it's a possible theory.

[calapine]

I like it :)

One question

From looking at your map I guess you think the flight path from Malaysian primary radar returns (IGARI-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX) is wrong and sort of a red-herring?

[Ghambit]

I like it :)

One question

From looking at your map I guess you think the flight path from Malaysian primary radar returns (IGARI-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX) is wrong and sort of a red-herring?

Yes, I've somewhat given up on those per the wishy-washiness of the reports.  They also dont jibe with what the pilot might've done if an emergency nor do they jibe with the preferred southern route now coveted by everyone. (they just dont believe Indian and Chinese radar would've missed it).  I supposed it's possible if the pilot was still under command up until IGREX.  He'd be accepting the course changes while fighting the problem until they were overcome on a 'free-return' trajectory near southbound, wherein the AP was just flying a course rather then a waypoint.  We're getting into pilot-error territory at this point because really... the plane just needs to be on the damned ground pronto.  Though it's not hard to see given the conditions (night, terrain, etc.) that they might've decided to roll-the-dice out there mistakenly.  My first thought was initially that actually (on pg. 1), because really... the odds are way against you trying to get that thing down no instruments at night even with a fire - even though that'd turn out to be the wrong choice.  That's the way flying is.  I've been a hair's-breath away from making the wrong choice b4.

I heard conflicting reports on if the pilots need to accept a course change in order for the system to run it.  Typically via GPS the pilot is gonna need to say 'yah.'  But via NDB/VORs and such, I think it just happens automatically like in my plane.  The AP doesnt know the difference and the RNAV just goes to the next point w/o input.  This would only matter when deciding when the plane went 'ghost.'  The GPS can fly whatever the heck course it wants also, so all my talk about land-based navpoints and such dont mean much if it's functional and the pilots can still press 'accept.'    Most of the accident-theorists think that the screens likely went dark though, even if GPS itself still was active... and they were flying via beacons and 'steam gauges' as I've surmised.   Not sure how independent the FMS is from the pilot after programming either.

In a nutshell, no one has a clue.  

[rk47]

[Ghambit]

Here's a timing uncertainty update:

Officials have revealed a new timeline suggesting the final voice transmission from the cockpit of the missing Malaysian plane may have occurred before any of its communications systems were disabled, adding more uncertainty about who aboard might have been to blame.
Malaysian Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said an initial investigation indicated that the last words heard from the plane by ground controllers - "All right, good night" - were spoken by the co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid. Had it been a voice other than that of Fariq or the pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, it would have clearest indication yet of something amiss in the cockpit before the flight went off-course.
Malaysian officials said earlier that those words came after one of the jetliner's data communications systems - the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System - had been switched off, suggesting the voice from the cockpit may have been trying to deceive ground controllers.
However, Amhad said that while the last data transmission from ACARS - which gives plane performance and maintenance information - came before that, it was still unclear at what point the system was switched off, making any implications of the timing murkier.

addendum: the eastern malaysian field diversion theories are also out because they're only 110nm from point of last contact.  A 777 at FL350 needs way more distance/time then that to safely descend.  Pilots would minimally have to try the other side of the island.

[Ironwood]

I don't care anymore.  Wake me up when the plane's found or the evil plan has come to fruition.

[Cyrrex]

Yeah, I guess I stopped caring a while ago.  It is strange how we as humans deal with this sort of thing.  People can starve by the thousands and we barely bat an eye, and yet a plane crashes every once in a while and it's like the world comes to a complete halt.  Sure, it is a tragedy, and these families could use some closure.  But still, thousands of smaller tragedies happen all the time and we all but ignore them.

I chalk it up to our instinctive fear of flying, combined with the thought that someone may have actually done something like this on purpose.  No wonder terrorist target airplanes as much as they do: because it scares the shit out of us.

[lamaros]

I have no fear of flying at all. It's just the mystery.

[Ironwood]

Yeah, I was interested in the mystery at first too, but now it's all 'Fuck it, we're in 2014 and we can't even locate a massive fuck off plane in under 48 hours, so who gives a shit'.  As long as Liam Fucking Neeson was onboard, the passengers will be all right.

A Pack of Wolves is Hunting You.  It's Ten Degrees Below.
It's Neeson Season.

[Ghambit]

Yah, I'm gonna be signing off on this until they find something tangible.  Taking up too much of my time lately.

[Margalis]

Taking up too much of my time lately.

Are you like...spending multiple hours a day researching this or something?

My guess is that it's Sunil Tripathi. He orchestrated the Boston bombing, pinned it on those other guys, faked his own death, laid low for a while, then hijacked this plane.

[Ironwood]

It's quite clear that it's Obama trying to distract from Benghazi.

Or something.

[Soln]

Oceans are vast, dynamic and can easily hold all the conspiracy theories the Internet can dream up.  Those poor people are dead and we just need to prove it.

Edit: autocorrect

[Surlyboi]

Rl'yeh has risen and the plane was Cthulhu's first victim.

[MahrinSkel]

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

--Dave (If it's all the same to the Ancient Ones, I'd rather be eaten last)

[Stormwaltz]

(If it's all the same to the Ancient Ones, I'd rather be eaten last)

We can only hope that Mythos Survival Horror replaces Zombie Survival Horror as the dominant game meme.

[Venkman]

It's quite clear that it's Obama trying to distract from Benghazi.

Or something.

Heh.

[NowhereMan]

Current conspiracy theory doing the rounds in Malaysia: It was the Mongolians. Apparently the last Malaysian PM had an affair with the daughter of a prominent Mongolian family and she died due to an accident (?) with a grenade. This was revenge of some kind.

I'm not really sure on the details because talking about this kind of stuff is just a rapid descent into the rabbit hole and I don't want to find out how crazy some of my coworkers are.

[Ironwood]

It's quite clear that it's Obama trying to distract from Benghazi.

Or something.

Heh.

OH COME ON.  I was fucking JOKING !!

 

[Merusk]

Were you, or were you just trying to distract us from the real story. That these terrorists were the same ones that masterminded Bengazhi and you're in cahoots!

[Numtini]

I'm liking the Mongolian explanation.

[Kageru]

Has the US media gotten bored and stopped reporting on it?

The sightings of floating debris in the ocean far west of Perth, roughly on the path of the projected southerly arc, looks like it might lead to a result. Though I imagine finding the wreck is still going to be very challenging even if it is there.

[Jeff Kelly]

It's basically the worst place to look for a crashed aircraft. It's about 2,600 miles from australia. Literally in the middle of absolutely nowhere. Far off from any land and any shipping lane.

The pacific ocean is also almost 4.5 kilometers deep there. About the same depth actually as the ocean where the AF flight sunk and it took them two years to find and salvage the flight data recorder of that flight.

[calapine]

It's basically the worst place to look for a crashed aircraft. It's about 2,600 miles from australia. Literally in the middle of absolutely nowhere. Far off from any land and any shipping lane.

The pacific ocean is also almost 4.5 kilometers deep there. About the same depth actually as the ocean where the AF flight sunk and it took them two years to find and salvage the flight data recorder of that flight.

It's worth nothing it took them 2 years underwater search despite finding floating parts of AF447 on the first day after the crash. In case of MH370 there are already 2 1/2 weeks of drift due to currents and wind to account for.

[Chimpy]

The pacific ocean is also almost 4.5 kilometers deep there. About the same depth actually as the ocean where the AF flight sunk and it took them two years to find and salvage the flight data recorder of that flight.

Uhm, that is not the Pacific Ocean where they are searching.

[Jeff Kelly]

So still indian ocean?

[Samwise]

(If it's all the same to the Ancient Ones, I'd rather be eaten last)

We can only hope that Mythos Survival Horror replaces Zombie Survival Horror as the dominant game meme.

No.