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Author Topic: 2014 College Football  (Read 78177 times)
Paelos
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Reply #105 on: October 20, 2014, 01:35:18 PM

results in bowl games have backed that.

Results in bowl games are meaningless outside the national championship. There's a constant battle of "who gives a shit" going on in those things. Most of the time, teams don't care. Should USC have lost to Georgia Tech when Lane Kiffin was still coach? Absolutely not. They did because Lane didn't even bother getting them to go to the pre-game dinners and show up to the meetings. They didn't care.

Bowl games are a nice exhibition, but I don't put stock in them on which conference is better. I put stock in national titles, the college football playoff this year, my eyeballs, and out of conference play during the regular season.

The ACC is fucking dreck with one great team. Just like the Big 10. It's not a smear campaign when Ohio State loses out of conference to Virginia Tech, who goes on to get beat by a 4-3 Pittsburgh team. Clemson barely escaped the mighty Boston College team last week, which is middle of the road at best. FSU is the only thing that conference has going, and nobody for a second believes they will lose another game because that conference is a joke.

In the Big 10, you have Minnesota leading one half of that conference, and they got dominated by TCU. In the other half you have a Michigan State team that shit the bed in the fourth quarter against Oregon. You have Ohio State fumbling with VA Tech, Maryland losing to West Virginia, and do I even have to discuss what Michigan has become? Where's the conspiracy exactly?

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Hoax
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Reply #106 on: October 20, 2014, 02:18:52 PM

Convenient that bowl games whose results go against your world view don't count.  Ohhhhh, I see.

They don't tell us which conferences are better effectively but they do tell us which conferences are overrated by the AP. You can go through year by year, its the B12 and ACC that have been winning "upsets" based on AP seeding and the SEC and Pac-12 teams are the ones who are "overseeded" and losing those games. Which is especially damning for the SEC considering they play 90% home games in bowls.

The SEC teams are ranked higher than they should be. That they lose to lower ranked teams more often than every other conference in bowl games where they hold home territory advantage proves this as far as I'm concerned. But they only lose because they don't care. Whatever you say.

No doubt there are motivational problems and coaching carousel problems that occur in bowls. But those are probably no more noise in the signal than bad losses because of off field disruptions, key injuries, etc. during the season which can cause a team to lose a game that if they played another 5 times you would expect them to win most/all of them.

Like Ohio State lost to Va Tech, but that was also that QB's first start that he wasn't expecting to play in until Miller went down in August and he clearly just fell apart under that pressure. Its still a loss. If Ohio State was great this year they would have found the way to win that game. It was at home ffs. Each game has storyline stuff like that that you can certainly claim puts the meaning of the game's result into question but at some point you have to use the data you have.

Like I said FSU is 70% winrate against real conferences. Clemson and Va Tech in the 60's somewhere iirc. Its not some barely power conference even if this is a down year.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2014, 02:26:07 PM by Hoax »

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Paelos
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Reply #107 on: October 20, 2014, 06:18:35 PM

I don't care what happens in the past year. I look at the conferences this year and rank them. I honestly thought last year the SEC was in a down year and I even said as much in the last year's thread. It's one of the reasons I didn't think Auburn would win the title. They were a shitty representative of a down year in the SEC. I don't think that will be the case this year.

The Big 12 is a great conference this year and only needs to get a couple more members while returning Texas to it's former glory to matter more.
The Big 10 is a dumpster fire this year outside of Michigan State, which is probably the only functional program they have.
The ACC is crap this year. It just is. FSU isn't even that good, but they haven't faced a program to truly test them other than a wildly overrated Notre Dame team whose best win prior was a mediocre Stanford team that's been exposed.
The Pac 12 is very good this year, verging on great. However, they lack an undefeated banner program at the moment.
The SEC has five teams right now in the top 10, which I think is ridiculous. They will beat each other eventually and fall around the other teams. I don't think Georgia is a top 10 team as an example. Still, there are reasons to believe that two teams could play in the playoff and beat anybody else. They have been that dominant against ranked competition.

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Reply #108 on: October 25, 2014, 04:59:56 PM

Bet the farm on USC tonight.

« Last Edit: October 26, 2014, 12:16:00 AM by Abagadro »

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Reply #109 on: October 25, 2014, 06:04:18 PM

TCU puts up 82 points on TxTech. Dear god...

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Reply #110 on: October 25, 2014, 06:25:58 PM

Bet the farm on USC tonight.

Any reason?

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HaemishM
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Reply #111 on: October 25, 2014, 10:38:16 PM

Welp, told you at least one of the MS teams would shit the bed before the season was over. Anyone see the end of that game? What... the... fuck? 9 seconds left, and you can't decide whether to try for a 42-yarder or go for more yardage, then make the decision to kick it with 17 seconds left on the play clock so you take a 5-yard delay of game penalty? Then when the opposing coach ices your kicker, you decide to send out the offense again and have your QB toss a fucking floater? I'm sure the coach didn't mean for his QB to literally piss down his own leg but damn. Should have made up your mind with 9 seconds left. And how does the QB not know to throw a short pass to the sidelines to try to make for a better kick? Total choke job.

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Reply #112 on: October 25, 2014, 10:40:05 PM

Bo Wallace.  awesome, for real

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HaemishM
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Reply #113 on: October 25, 2014, 10:45:18 PM

Bad Bo. Bad Bad Bo.

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Reply #114 on: October 25, 2014, 11:39:34 PM

YES.  Thanks Utah!



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Abagadro
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Reply #115 on: October 26, 2014, 12:16:15 AM

Bet the farm on USC tonight.



Reverse jinx! YES!

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

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Reply #116 on: October 26, 2014, 02:16:16 PM

Bet the farm on USC tonight.



Reverse jinx! YES!

I saw the score roll by watching the end of the UW fiasco in bed and told my wife you must be good and happily drunk by now  Oh ho ho ho. Reallllly?

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Reply #117 on: October 26, 2014, 03:18:53 PM

That game was nuts. Largest crowd ever at a Utes home game and last second TD to win it.  Today I am hung over, hoarse, and sore from jumping around like a fool.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2014, 04:45:56 PM by Abagadro »

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
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Reply #118 on: October 26, 2014, 04:11:08 PM

That is the best.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

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Reply #119 on: October 28, 2014, 08:21:16 PM

Heh, the 'Committee' rankings are just as arbitrarily garbage as the prior polls.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
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Reply #120 on: October 28, 2014, 08:32:25 PM

Stop, the room is spinning.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

Always wear clean underwear because you never know when a Tory Government is going to fuck you.- Ironwood

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Paelos
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Reply #121 on: October 29, 2014, 08:56:15 AM

Todd Gurley gets 4 game suspension for something that will likely be legal in a few years.

NCAA, imposing penalties in the death throes.

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Reply #122 on: October 31, 2014, 01:12:51 PM

University of Michigan fires their AD

Officially he's resigning, but that's what you always say when you fire your AD.

Michigan's football program is in tatters, so this is the first of what will probably be many pink slips.

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Reply #123 on: November 01, 2014, 10:53:02 PM

What a horrible way for Ole Miss to lose that game. If you haven't seen the Treadwell TD turned fumble, be prepared. That was both gruesome and horribly disheartening.

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Reply #124 on: November 01, 2014, 10:56:05 PM

I can't believe that poof couldn't hold onto the ball when his ankle was shattered into 47 pieces.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
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Reply #125 on: November 02, 2014, 01:36:27 AM

I is sad panda. Good god I fucking hate those ASU douchebags.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
Paelos
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Reply #126 on: November 02, 2014, 07:29:50 AM

Whole day was horrible. The Dawgs get annihilated by a high school offensive scheme, and then Auburn wins yet again because Gus has obviously made a pact with Satan that they get to be involved in the national championship, but never win.

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Reply #127 on: November 02, 2014, 12:31:53 PM

I could see in that Ole Miss/Auburn game that there are a few guys on either side that are going to get serious consideration for NFL jobs. Treadwell, before his leg got snapped in about 300 places, was a real quick Harvin type. Senquez Golden may be short, but that fucker can cover and hit. I could see him being a good nickelback or safety at the next level. Sammy Coates should also get a look - receivers that tall with the ability to go up and get the ball even when blanket covered are just gold. Nick Marshall, however, is not even close to being one of those players. He may be slippery, but I have yet to see anything that makes me think he's anything other than a good college QB.

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Reply #128 on: November 02, 2014, 02:41:46 PM

I'm starting to feel hope for Big Game.  ACK!

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Paelos
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Reply #129 on: November 02, 2014, 03:01:27 PM

Ole Miss wasn't the team I was concerned about winning the SEC West at any point in time, mostly due to their QB.

Mississippi State has been my pick since the jump, mostly due to their defense and their QB (although he had a shitty day on Saturday).

Alabama is back in it, and as far as I'm concerned Auburn isn't. Auburn has to have MS State lose twice to Alabama and Ole Miss. Then, Auburn has to beat Alabama. I just don't see it happening unless they pull another ridiculous lucky streak.

Georgia now has to have Missouri lose a game somewhere, and they have to beat Auburn. The first thing is likely, the second thing isn't. If Missouri does the unthinkable and loses two games, then suddenly there's a 3-way tie of shit between Georgia-Mizzou-Florida, and they all have head-to-head round robin's against each other. At that point Florida could go based on divisional record.

So yeah, it's a complete mess in the East, and the West I think is down to Alabama and MS State.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2014, 03:04:05 PM by Paelos »

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Reply #130 on: November 06, 2014, 10:03:23 AM

Man ESPN is trying to setup the two SEC team playoff so hard. They must be legit worried that the SEC won't win if they only get one spot.

Unless both FSU AND Sparty fail to win their respective conferences there should be zero shot in hell of the SEC getting a second team. Yes even if the SEC-West produces a champion and a second 1-loss team.

I've got a sinking feeling I'll be referring back to this post when the time comes. Also can't believe I need to root for Florida State now, yuck.

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Reply #131 on: November 06, 2014, 02:31:43 PM

Depends. The problem will be the Big Ten, which outside of three teams isn't serious this year.

Let's say Alabama beat MS State and has head to head and MS State has one loss. Alabama wins the SEC with one loss, and I think we agree there's zero chance the SEC champion Alabama gets left out.

There's zero chance in my mind that the committee doesn't put MS State having beaten four of their five ranked teams in over one-loss Michigan State who only won 2 of 3.

FSU would be in. Alabama in. MS State in. And I think if K State won out they'd be in for sure.

Oregon would be out due to their Arizona bad loss (because I think Arizona goes 8-4). TCU would be out because they lost to K State. If they don't lose? Then I think TCU battles with Oregon for the final slot.

I don't think Michigan State gets in because even if Alabama loses, Auburn could run the table and be one loss with 5 ranked wins, and a loss to the possible #1 team in the nation.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2014, 02:33:49 PM by Paelos »

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Hoax
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Reply #132 on: November 06, 2014, 05:01:41 PM

I'd take 1-loss ND, 1-loss Mich State, whoever the P12 champion is or a 1-loss B12 winner over the Bulldogs with 1-loss. Side note: how annoying is it that two teams in the SEC have the same name?

A 1-loss Mississippi State has beaten Auburn and lost to Alambama. None of the other teams on their schedule are amazing but they did win a high pressure road game against Ole Miss to end the season and they beat a 3+ loss LSU team on the road awhile back which only counts as anything special because SEC.

tl;dr MSU beat one (at home) playoff conversation team and lost (away) to another. They won two conference road games against not-tin-cans. They played 0/4 even half real OOC games.

I'm sorry, if they had some statement win OOC or if they had really run a gauntlet of the SEC's best and won or something.

But they beat Auburn and lost to Alabama. They played nobody OOC and they did quite well but not enough to play in their conference's championship game.

For me that doesn't get you into the playoffs ahead of whoever wins very strong B12 and P12 gauntlets this year.

If Oregon completely self destructs and MSU barely wins versus tOSU and in their title game... Maybe that's a toss up between 1-loss MSU's.

If FSU was to somehow dumpster fire the rest of the season maybe you punish ND for that and you'd say its a toss up between 1-loss ND and 1-loss MSU. Otherwise ND beat everyone in front of them except FSU (at FSU) on that last play including playing away to ASU and USC late and winning.

But its obvious that the setup is in and as far a the committee/espn is concerned a 1-loss MSU should trump just about anything else with 1-loss. Because SEC. Which is bullshit.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2014, 05:29:11 PM by Hoax »

A nation consists of its laws. A nation does not consist of its situation at a given time. If an individual's morals are situational, then that individual is without morals. If a nation's laws are situational, that nation has no laws, and soon isn't a nation.
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Paelos
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Reply #133 on: November 06, 2014, 08:23:13 PM

Well for starters the fact Mississippi State beat LSU means something because Wisconsin (a team that's ranked at this moment in the Big 10) couldn't do. Also LSU beat Ole Miss.

Here's the thing, if you beat a playoff conversation team, you're likely in the game unless you fuck up and lose to an unranked team. There just aren't that many conversation teams. Right now, ND doesn't have a good win. They have shitty win against Stanford. Whoopdedoo. Michigan State has no solid win, as I think their best is Nebraska, a team that's whooped up on a string of unranked garbage other than Michigan State.

If Oregon wins out, have you actually seen their schedule? It's really pathetic outside of Michigan State maybe Utah. Oh and lets not forget they lost to Arizona. That stings. However, if Arizona state wins out? I think they get in. Their schedule is much harder than Oregon, and they would have beaten the Ducks in basically an elimination game. Arizona State would likely push out MSU if Kansas State or TCU wins out. But I don't think Oregon would because of the Arizona loss. The reason K State would get the nod is because their only loss would be to Auburn.

I think the teams in the discussion are Alabama, MS State, Auburn, FSU, K State, Arizona State and TCU in varying degrees.

I think Oregon, Michigan State, and Notre Dame don't have enough to get in on paper even if they win out unless some other things change or they knock off the above teams.

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Reply #134 on: November 06, 2014, 09:52:01 PM

Arizona is very good this year and Oregon was pretty depleted at the time. That's the sort of thing the committee is supposed to be looking at, not just w/l.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

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Reply #135 on: November 06, 2014, 09:55:58 PM

A 1-loss MSU that is second fiddle to Alabama has beaten:
-@LSU
-Auburn
-@Ole Miss in a rivalry final week elimination game.

Their only loss is to playoff lock Alabama away.

They go into playoffs on a 2-game winstreak.

A 1-loss Oregon has beaten:
-Mich. St
-@UCLA
-@Utah
Championship game vs a Arizona or LA school.

They go into playoffs on a 8-game winstreak.

A 1-loss Sparty has beaten:
-Neb
-tOSU
Championship game rematch vs Nebraska or vs WISC/Minn

Most importantly they've won every game except @ Autzen in week two. They go into playoffs on a 11-game winstreak.


A 1-loss ND has beaten:
-@ASU
-@USC (to end season, so pressure on)

Most importantly they've won every game except @ FSU down to the wire on a close penalty 5 weeks back. They go into playoffs on a 5-game winstreak.

A 1-loss Baylor (you didn't even mention them) has beaten:
-TCU
-@OU
-K-State in a final week elimination game.
5-game winstreak

A 2-loss, P12 winning Arizona team (for argument's sake, they need help) has beaten:
-@Oregon
-@Utah
-ASU in a rivalry final week game.
P12 Championship rematch vs Oregon (most likely) w/ their O-line back.
5-game winstreak.

I think that's pretty close to 1-loss MSU. The rest I don't think we should be having a discussion about.

« Last Edit: November 16, 2014, 03:36:33 AM by Hoax »

A nation consists of its laws. A nation does not consist of its situation at a given time. If an individual's morals are situational, then that individual is without morals. If a nation's laws are situational, that nation has no laws, and soon isn't a nation.
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Paelos
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Reply #136 on: November 07, 2014, 07:57:52 AM

Committee is choosing based on strength of schedule, head-head results, comparison of results against common opponents, championships won and other factors. They also say that every game matters. I don't think win streaks mean a damn to them, but we'll see if your point plays out.

I didn't mention Baylor because they have zero chance to get in after losing to West Virginia, and their ranking reflects that. I also don't think anybody want them in there because they all know that Baylor plays zero defense, and would get murdered by a team with any physical presence. They played great defense against shit, but when faced with a ranked team they are giving up 49.5 points a game. Still I think they lose to either K State or OU or maybe even OK St, so it'll be a moot point.

I don't think Mississippi State will have one loss, but we'll see. I think they win out. Alabama doesn't get in because I think Alabama is offensively flawed. They will lose to both MS State and Auburn in my mind.

I don't actually think the SEC gets two teams because MS State will win out, Alabama and Auburn will have two losses, and Georgia sucks this year at the QB position and defensively.

My guess right now is the committee will put in FSU, MS State, K State, and Arizona State or Oregon.

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Reply #137 on: November 07, 2014, 09:00:44 AM

I know very little about the college football system, but just based on the media hype and history, I'd say that most of the selection committee and the people who make money off of college football would kill for 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. They love them some SEC.

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Reply #138 on: November 07, 2014, 11:16:05 AM

I don't think the committee gives a shit about ratings. They are selected by a management committee of all the FBS commissioners and ND's AD. I seriously doubt the management committee gives a shit about promoting one conference over another unless it's their own.

The TV people care, but they aren't involved in this. They get to bid for the rights to broadcast the deal, but the only thing they care about is eyeballs. They will lobby for the teams that will get the biggest draw from fans.

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Reply #139 on: November 08, 2014, 05:23:11 PM

 Rofl Waffle Rofl Waffle Rofl Waffle

Auburn just didn't want to win.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2014, 05:24:55 PM by Rasix »

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