NFL 2014

[Chimpy]

Also, the guarantee of big money if you leave college early.

[Paelos]

So, in all seriousness, what's the problem?  Is the position just so difficult you aren't getting enough people capable of playing it, or are we doing a bad job training QBs? 

College offenses - few are pro-style.

It's this. And those that are pro-style aren't winning at a high enough level to attract enough 5-star talent.

[Paelos]

Partial thread prediction recap for lulz. I cut the parts about child abuse and domestic violence.

[Goumindong]

So, in all seriousness, what's the problem?  Is the position just so difficult you aren't getting enough people capable of playing it, or are we doing a bad job training QBs? 

Nothing is the problem. Its just that people see the QB's of old and think they were both amazing and numerous. The vast majority of the best QB's to ever play the game are playing right now.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

Matt Schaub is 13th on the all time average quarterback rating for regular season play. Andy Dalton is 25*. Its not that we do a bad job of training QB's its that we have forgotten how good QB's used to be, which is to say that they weren't, aside from a handful.

*Who gets a lot more shit for his playoff performances than he should, considering he is playing on the Bengals. The fact that they made it to the playoffs is amazing. But they were never going to have a chance of doing well once they got there

I agree he was garbage until the last half of the 4th quarter. But the most infuriating thing about it was how out of character for him that performance was. But again he and the rest of the offense figured their shit out at the end and we get one more game this year.

While two of the ints were on him. The other two were on Kearse. Skip the two Kearse drops into ints and the game turns around a whole bunch(also it reduces the pressure on wilson to throw those bad ones)

That being said, the packers lost because they had the ball 4th and goal by inches and didn't go for it twice.

[HaemishM]

To be fair, NOBODY predicted the Cowboys making the playoffs, much less getting a playoff game at home AND winning it. I mean... fuck, even Jerry Goddamn Jones thought it'd be another 8-8 season and time to fire Jason Garrett. Who knew that drafting offensive lineman early actually meant your offense could function, or that Rolando McClain could be an integral part of a competent defense? And if certainly didn't hurt Dallas that Philadelphia had Sanchize as their starting QB the back half of the season.

And to add to the are there not 32 people in the world competent to be an NFL QB discussion - look at the goddamn Cardinals. Carson Fucking Palmer is no great QB. He's essentially had one All-Pro type season and a lot of "Man, he was almost great" seasons along with a number of "best player on a really bad team" seasons. But he turned a team with a great defense into a playoff team to the extent that when he went down, that team literally could not function on offense anymore. The difference between a good QB and Ryan Lindley is at least 10-14 points a game as well as 3-5 wins. The difference between a Mark Sanchez and a Nick Foles is playing a home playoff game in January and watching one on TV. And then the difference between a team with a pro bowl QB and nothing else and a team with a HOF QB AND a good defense is a trip to the Super Bowl while Robot Neckbeard Jesus 2.0 sits on the couch Feb. 1.

[HaemishM]

That being said, the packers lost because they had the ball 4th and goal by inches and didn't go for it twice.

I just have to disagree with this. The Packers lost because they had a 12-point lead with less than 4 minutes to go and their dumbass defensive coordinator changed his entire game plan to stop the pass and made his team unable to stop the pass or the run. Also because said dumbass coordinator cannot scheme against the read option AT ALL.

The offense spotted the defense 12 points with less than 4 minutes in the game. They gave them a 16-point lead at the half. A defense that cannot stop a run-first/run-heavy team from scoring TWO GODDAMN TD's with 4 minutes and 1 timeout left needs serious changes at the top. The personnel is pretty good. The coaching is shit.

[Nebu]

Johnny football needs to be in NE playing behind Brady, in Denver behind Manning, in NO behind Brees, etc to be worth anything next year.  The guy suffered poor decision making in college.  If he doesn't get his head on straight in the NFL, he's going to get destroyed.  

Paelos... You forgot one.

[Paelos]

The problem was I could have made it the "JOHNNY FOOTBALL IS TERRIBLE AND WILL SUCK" recap and everybody would have gotten a post. 

[Nebu]

The problem was I could have made it the "JOHNNY FOOTBALL IS TERRIBLE AND WILL SUCK" recap and everybody would have gotten a post. 

Point made.

[Goumindong]

That being said, the packers lost because they had the ball 4th and goal by inches and didn't go for it twice.

I just have to disagree with this. The Packers lost because they had a 12-point lead with less than 4 minutes to go and their dumbass defensive coordinator changed his entire game plan to stop the pass and made his team unable to stop the pass or the run. Also because said dumbass coordinator cannot scheme against the read option AT ALL.

The offense spotted the defense 12 points with less than 4 minutes in the game. They gave them a 16-point lead at the half. A defense that cannot stop a run-first/run-heavy team from scoring TWO GODDAMN TD's with 4 minutes and 1 timeout left needs serious changes at the top. The personnel is pretty good. The coaching is shit.

That too. There were a host of things that they could have done. Bad play calling early (settling for 3 when you've got a >50% chance for 7, had they got only one of those they would have won) did it. Changing to a prevent instead of playing the aggressive rush that worked did it. Missing the onside kick did it. Stopping the 2 point conversion could have done it*

*Though that should not have had to matter, lynch should have stopped at the goal line and just waited to run time off the clock.

[Paelos]

I got into a twitter argument with one of my editors about the game. I said up 16-0 that were I a Packer fan, I would not be thrilled with how that half went.

He was like WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT. I said that when you have a better team by the nuts on the road, and you have chances to shut the fucking door, you better shut it. They didn't.

He argued that the Packers lost that game because of the second half. My argument is that if you put two of those TDs in instead of FGs or picks, you don't need to worry about a second half. The game is over.

[WayAbvPar]

Agreed. It could have easily been 35-0 at half time. The fact that it was less than half of that gave Seattle just enough room to sneak back into it. McCarthy really needed to go for it on at least one of the red zone kicks.

[Malakili]

Well, it can be both ways.  

[Paelos]

Well, it can be both ways.  

It's certainly ended up being a team effort. 

[HaemishM]

My thoughts as I'm watching the first half was this - the Hawks defense is a fucking killer. They have repeatedly bashed our brains in over the last two seasons. The Hawks offense... isn't. They can put up some impressive numbers but only if their defense both shuts our offense down AND gets turnovers. Rodgers gave them two in the first half but the offense did dick with it. I'm on the road against a killer defense and I get the chance to get points... I take the points. I take the points EVERY TIME. If the Packers defense couldn't stop the Seahawks offense AT ALL, then maybe I go for it because I'm desperate. But early? Take the points. Never forego easy points against a tough as nails defense when you can take them. There was absolutely no guarantee Lacy gets through the line even for that amount of space, the Hawks line is just that good.

And again, you've stopped this team doing ANYTHING for 3 quarters and 12 minutes. You have a 12-point lead. The offense did its fucking job. Get a lead into the late fourth quarter and burn the opposition's timeouts. As a defense, my thought process should be "Make Russell Wilson pass this bitch to win." Not "give up contesting the line of scrimmage and all and keep everything in front of us."

[Sir T]

[Tannhauser]

Things that surprised me this year.

1.  The Cowboys-OK I hate their guts but as a football fan you had to admire Romo and the season that team had. They'll be back and in greater numbers.  Or something. Not bringing up the Lions game.

2.  Peyton's noodle arm-WTF?  Is he such a stat hound that he has to play every snap?  I feel he got greedy and, when he needed his arm the most, blew it.  Let the backup play clean up.  I say this as a huge Petyton fan btw.

3.  How bad the year was.  Officials on the take, wimmen gettin' raped, Ray Rice does no time, hey I made a rhyme!

Things that didn't surprise me.

1.  The Lions get into the playoffs and lose the first round. Yes, the call was history making bullshit, but they lost.

2.  Seattle and NE back to the Superbowl.  Every year I follow the NFL and every year it's the same teams I can't stand in the playoffs.  This NFL Entertainment Product (I refuse to call it a sport, it's as much of a sport as pro wrestling)  is wearing real thin.

3.  The Titans sucking.  This does not seem like an organization that can put even a Cleveland-level team on the field. Our long national nightmare with Jake "The Hurt" Locker is over at least.  Salt the earth and start elsewhere on a new planet.

[sickrubik]

Peyton is 38, hid some injuries, and had a week 4 bye. He was just beat the hell up by the end o the season.

[01101010]

Just like to take a moment as a Browns homer to say that the Browns finished with more than 4 wins this year, and was in the playoff hunt at the end in what looked to be the most balanced 'good' division in the league at the time. That is astounding since they have no QB to speak of other than a backup and a debutante. Oh and they are actually looking like they are keeping their head coach this year... shock and awe.

[K9]

So, in all seriousness, what's the problem?  Is the position just so difficult you aren't getting enough people capable of playing it, or are we doing a bad job training QBs? 

Quarterback is probably the most challenging position anyone can play in any team sport. There are other positions that demand more speed, or strength, or endurance, but nothing comes close in terms of the level of decision making and knowledge needed. It's not surprising it's hard to find people who can play the position well, there's really nothing else that comes close to it, and it's not a position you can transition into from another easily (the reverse isn't nearly so difficult, many college QBs go on to play WR or RB at the pro level).

The crazy thing is that even the worst NFL QB is still by most measures an incredibly gifted athlete; it's just that the demands of the game at the NFL level will make any QB but an exceptional one look like a terrible player on a regular basis. Furthermore, rookie QBs are often thrown in without sufficient time to learn the added complexities of the pro game, against defences who on aggregate have far more experience.

[Nebu]

Athletic and smart is a hard combination to find.  QB's require both.  That's really all there is to it.  At that level of physical ability, there aren't many with the intellect to go with it.  Those that do play QB, are in the HoF, or both.

[Cyrrex]

And again, you've stopped this team doing ANYTHING for 3 quarters and 12 minutes. You have a 12-point lead. The offense did its fucking job. Get a lead into the late fourth quarter and burn the opposition's timeouts. As a defense, my thought process should be "Make Russell Wilson pass this bitch to win." Not "give up contesting the line of scrimmage and all and keep everything in front of us."

Counterpoint:  The traditional thinking is that when a team is against the ropes and they are down to four minutes and one timeout, down by two scores OF COURSE they are going to have to pass the ball.  So you play the pass.  Marshawn Lynch then proceeded to run all over them, with a couple of first down saving passes and Wilson scrambles thrown in.  Two scores lightning fast, mostly on the ground.  That was extremely unusual.  But okay, fine.  Now it's overtime.  The guys who just ran all over you have the ball again.  Pass, pass, pass, touchdown, game.  WTF.

I think Dom Capers did what every other Defensive Coordinator in the league would have done.  When Seattle obviously should have been passing, they ran.  When they should have obviously been running, they passed.

The big error here was not finding a way to put the game out of reach before it got to that point.  Seattle has been flat-out murdering teams in the fourth quarter over the last two or three months.  And I don't blame the 4th and goal choices so much as the terrible red zone execution in general.

[Paelos]

The problem I have with that line of thinking is that Russell Wilson was inept up to that point. You have to make him make plays to get back in the game. You can't let Lynch beat you. If that means you take one over the top? Fine, because it's just one. It's not the game.

Instead, with 4 minutes left in the game, they gave up 14 to Lynch, a short dump off pass that went 20 yards, a pass to Lynch that almost got in, and then three straight runs for the TD. Nothing except the Lynch pass went deep, and that's because everything else short was covered up.

But it got even worse after the onside kick. Again, make him beat you in the air. He hadn't done it all fucking day. Instead? Run, run, screen, run. That's inexcusable. You have to know that they want to not only score, but bleed the clock. Green Bay just got gashed.

[Nebu]

Give Tom Brady a decent line and 4 random guys and he takes you to the Super Bowl.  Can Wilson do that? I think NO.

[Cyrrex]

Because he was inept up to that point means you can expect to keep him that way for four entire quarters?  I don't see why that should be the case, especially when he has shown a knack to come up big when the stakes are high.  He positively smoked them in OT, mind you.  Anyway, the point is that when they did as you suggested and chose to stop the run in OT because they got burned so badly by it just minutes before, they got killed by the pass.  It was a pretty smart asymmetrical approach by Bevell, who had called an otherwise shit game up to that point (which I will agree was terribly executed as well by the whole offense, RW in particular).  I can't blame Capers for that, I think he did what anyone would do in that situation.  You don't run the ball when down by two scores with one timeout with four minutes on the clock.  You also don't run it with two minute on the clock and down by one score.  And then when you go to OT, you should go back to the run which has worked so well for you, since you now have the luxury of time.  They did exactly the opposite of what conventional wisdom said you should, and that is why it worked.

I will say this much:  I am not sure how long Clay Matthews was out during the last few series and OT, but that probably hurt them more than anything.  Clay Matthews was the solution to Wilson in this game (picks notwithstanding), and it was pant-on-head territory to have him on the sidelines.  He disappeared all of a sudden.  


Edit for Nebu:  No idea, Wilson has never had a decent line.  They are downright bad at pass protection and mediocre at best at run blocking (Marshawn inflates their numbers by being ridiculous after contact).  It's not a bad point, though.  Then again, I think Brady actually always has pretty decent weapons at his disposal, so I am not sure he could do it either.

[Paelos]

Give Tom Brady a decent line and 4 random guys and he takes you to the Super Bowl.  Can Wilson do that? I think NO.

Absolutely concur. I think Russell Wilson isn't a playoff QB on most teams.

[HaemishM]

Because he was inept up to that point means you can expect to keep him that way for four entire quarters?

Yes, unless you do something like change the entire way your defense has been schemed. They stopped pressuring him. They stopped putting a safety closer to the line. I think they stopped doing man to man press coverage. All their linebackers went into coverage and were a good 10 yards from the line of scrimmage on every play. Basically, everything that had been working to limit the Hawks offensive production both with the run and the pass, they stopped doing. They basically gave any runner, whether it was Wilson or Lynch, the first 5-10 yards to get up a head of steam and anyone who has watched the Packers' defense all year knows, the Packers were SHIT at open-field tackling, especially with guys that are hard to bring down like Lynch. Yes, conventional wisdom says go into prevent defense because the Seahwaks will start passing the ball. They didn't do that because the passing game hadn't been working and because Green Bay was GIVING them a free 5-10 yards on every play just by their formation. By the second big run, Capers should have recognized that Seattle WASN'T going to go with the pass, they were going to gash the shit out of the Packers. And he didn't adjust, which has been his problem since forever. Not adjusting - he doesn't adjust well from play to play, at the half, really ever.

[Shannow]

Funnily enough on the final play they WERE in the cover 0 defense and brought 5 to rush.

Let's face it, the Seahawks got DAMN lucky. The onside kick recovery? Ok you could give them that one but let's talk about the 2 point conversion. A scrambling Wilson heaves the ball up into the air hoping someone brings it down. That shit was helmetcatchesque right there.

[Nebu]

Edit for Nebu:  No idea, Wilson has never had a decent line.  They are downright bad at pass protection and mediocre at best at run blocking (Marshawn inflates their numbers by being ridiculous after contact).  It's not a bad point, though.  Then again, I think Brady actually always has pretty decent weapons at his disposal, so I am not sure he could do it either.

Are you saying that Okung and Unger are getting Pro Bowl votes because they're bad? 

[01101010]

Because he was inept up to that point means you can expect to keep him that way for four entire quarters?

Yes, unless you do something like change the entire way your defense has been schemed. They stopped pressuring him. They stopped putting a safety closer to the line. I think they stopped doing man to man press coverage. All their linebackers went into coverage and were a good 10 yards from the line of scrimmage on every play. Basically, everything that had been working to limit the Hawks offensive production both with the run and the pass, they stopped doing. They basically gave any runner, whether it was Wilson or Lynch, the first 5-10 yards to get up a head of steam and anyone who has watched the Packers' defense all year knows, the Packers were SHIT at open-field tackling, especially with guys that are hard to bring down like Lynch. Yes, conventional wisdom says go into prevent defense because the Seahwaks will start passing the ball. They didn't do that because the passing game hadn't been working and because Green Bay was GIVING them a free 5-10 yards on every play just by their formation. By the second big run, Capers should have recognized that Seattle WASN'T going to go with the pass, they were going to gash the shit out of the Packers. And he didn't adjust, which has been his problem since forever. Not adjusting - he doesn't adjust well from play to play, at the half, really ever.

I distinctly remember Aikman commenting about that final 4 minutes - that GB was only rushing 2 with the NT acting as a spy on Wilson. My reaction was an eyeroll followed by a long whhhhhyyyyyyy??! Playing not to lose is the fastest way to lose a game. I am a Browns fan from the 1980s, I know these things (wasn't the running joke at one point, 'the only thing a prevent defense does is prevent your team from winning?').

[HaemishM]

Green Bay has a long history of pissing away playoff games by playing prevent defense. Freddie Mitchell, 4th and fucking 26.

[01101010]

"The Drive" still haunts every single Browns fan who was alive during the 80s. 

[veredus]

Edit for Nebu:  No idea, Wilson has never had a decent line.  They are downright bad at pass protection and mediocre at best at run blocking (Marshawn inflates their numbers by being ridiculous after contact).  It's not a bad point, though.  Then again, I think Brady actually always has pretty decent weapons at his disposal, so I am not sure he could do it either.

Are you saying that Okung and Unger are getting Pro Bowl votes because they're bad? 

Actually they can't stay healthy. Specially Okung. So LT can be good when Okung is playing and healthy which if you look at his career has been basically one season. Unger is great but he spent a lot of time hurt this year. Hawks were playing with a 4th string center at one point this season. They have been playing a rookie at RT that may end up good but so far has spent all season getting embarrassed. Guards are good run blockers and anywhere from so so to bad at pass pro. The Oline could be decent but the last 2-3 years has been bad for various reasons. Wilson and Lynch both make them look better.

[HaemishM]

The Packers right tackle spent all of last year on injured reserve after blowing out his knee, and missed I think 2 games early in the season from injury. Our left tackle is a second year guy that only got the start last year because our right tackle blew out his knee switching to left tackle. Also, our QB only had one leg. 

[WayAbvPar]

Edit for Nebu:  No idea, Wilson has never had a decent line.  They are downright bad at pass protection and mediocre at best at run blocking (Marshawn inflates their numbers by being ridiculous after contact).  It's not a bad point, though.  Then again, I think Brady actually always has pretty decent weapons at his disposal, so I am not sure he could do it either.

Are you saying that Okung and Unger are getting Pro Bowl votes because they're bad? 

Actually they can't stay healthy. Specially Okung. So LT can be good when Okung is playing and healthy which if you look at his career has been basically one season. Unger is great but he spent a lot of time hurt this year. Hawks were playing with a 4th string center at one point this season. They have been playing a rookie at RT that may end up good but so far has spent all season getting embarrassed. Guards are good run blockers and anywhere from so so to bad at pass pro. The Oline could be decent but the last 2-3 years has been bad for various reasons. Wilson and Lynch both make them look better.

This. If Tom Brady played behind this line he would be in a hospital bed somewhere waiting for a vat-grown spleen. They are fucking garbage at pass protection. And at remembering the goddamned snap count