I think the game has atleast until the community warfare patch (unless they delay it to next year or something) before you can say that it might be dying. If it was left as it is then it would fade into obscurity since there is nothing to keep the majority of players playing past (whatever the average number of) weeks/months it now takes to get bored with the lack of progression and variety.
I completely agree with that.
I also think that, no matter what, Community Warfare is gonna disappoint pretty much everyone. Too many expectations. People are
hoping, dreaming about some sort of EVE, or any room for roleplaying, which is something they clearly stated it is never gonna happen and they simply don't have the resource to make. The reaction to finally finding out that Community Warfare is nothing more than a
faction grind for decals and patterns, and that territorial control part will only be for big mean minmaxing guilds and probably hidden behind a paywall will be rageful.
If I had to make predictions, I would say that:
- First step into Community Warfare will be just the introduction of Factions (the 6 lore houses), which you will earn Loyalty Points with through grinding. You will also be able to buy XP boosts with real money. People will loudly hate this.
- Loyalty Points will give players Titles, unique decals, paintjobs, and eventually some unique Epic 'mechs with some unique perks. The grind will be insane and people will freak out. Also, more "Pay 2 Win" allegations, and possibly more "Pay 2 Win" real stuff, like Coolshot 18.
- When they will finally introduce territorial control it will be a thing just for the meanest and strongest groups, and it will be available only to Premium (paying) users. Community will freak out even more, including those who would have probably never fought a single territorial battle even if it was free, but still they will feel betrayed. "We waited all this time for JUST THIS?! OMGG!".
- Rewards for holding territories will range from bragging rights and some unique decals and maybe c-bills and some unique 'mech part. People will freak out that the rewards are useless or too good, so they will nerf/boost them into making them the opposite, forever and ever, and there will be constant complains about how the Community Warfare rewards are either too bad or too good, with no solution apparently ever able to make people happy.
In the end, I think that in a game that does NOT have the scope of EVE, or a true MMORPG, the concept of any kind of persistent war is easily gonna be disappointing if what you dreamt about is something "meaningful", long term, and satisfying. I am sure there are ways this could be done if not right at least decently, but I am also sure that they don't have the resources or the talent to come up with something balanced, addictive and unique, so barring surprises I have a feeling that Community Warfare will be the last drop that will definitely kill it for most players.
Still, I don't think that will kill the game. I think CW's flop will kill the game's buzz for good, but it won't kill the game itself. There's just too many people addicted to the BT/MW lore to quit, and the game is definitely entertaining enough as a free to play original shooter especially when it'll have a new UI and a tutorial. So with more features and a possible Steam release this game will be alive and well (for them, as in monemaking) for a long time.
But if I had to make predictions now, I'd say that Community Warfare will be quite a disaster, and will turn off lots and lots of people, killing the internet vibe and giving it a bad name. At that point though the game will have enough stuff and features to pull in lots of new players who don't have any resentment towards PGI and will just enjoy the game for what it is, making it a profitable product that will successfully run in the background for the next five years or more.
So I don't see any big success in MWO's future, but I don't see it dying. Although it depends on what you call "dying" for a project of this scope (started with 10 employees).
On the patch, I agree that not enough changed after last week's ones. I think it'll be interesting to see what happens after they link more weapons together in the anti-boat rule (Gauss is rumored to get in there somehow), on top of the flat heat increase to PPC family.
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