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luckton
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Reply #35 on: May 08, 2012, 05:25:14 AM

Unless they can keep the number at a million plus, I cannot foresee them justifying full voice acting on every subsequent patch/expansion pack for the future.  Unless someone at EA/BW/Lucas does just not straight give a fuck about money, which in Lucas' case may be a possibility  why so serious?

"Those lights, combined with the polygamous Nazi mushrooms, will mess you up."

"Tuning me out doesn't magically change the design or implementation of said design. Though, that'd be neat if it did." -schild
Azazel
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Reply #36 on: May 08, 2012, 05:45:15 AM

Not doomcasting, but a bit of a different perspective - I'm a MMO player and have been for a long time. I'm also a decently-sized Star Wars fan (of sorts). I'm the prime candidate for Star Wars-does-WoW

but...

I've got a lifetime sub to LotrO which is F2P anyway, a copy of Guild Wars, and I returned to WoW with the buy-a-year-get-Diablo3-free deal. I also bought into WAR and got horribly burned.

so...

I decided to play wait-and-see when it comes to KOTORO. Hoping that it would be pretty good and they'd get the bugs out by the time my WoW-year expires, because fuck 3 MMOs at once. Prognosis isn't good.

http://azazelx.wordpress.com/ - My Miniatures and Hobby Blog.
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


WWW
Reply #37 on: May 08, 2012, 06:27:17 AM


Surlyboi
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eat a bag of dicks


Reply #38 on: May 08, 2012, 06:33:30 AM

I'm in it for the haul, 'cause fuck WoW, D3, GW2 and pretty much everything else out there and on the horizon right now. Unless TSW and PS2 blow me away, I ain't goin' nowhere.

Tuned in, immediately get to watch cringey Ubisoft talking head offering her deepest sympathies to the families impacted by the Orlando shooting while flanked by a man in a giraffe suit and some sort of "horrifically garish neon costumes through the ages" exhibit or something.  We need to stop this fucking planet right now and sort some shit out. -Kail
Lantyssa
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Reply #39 on: May 08, 2012, 08:47:36 AM

Why you hatin' on GW2? cry

[Also a very delayed <wave>.  You logged on yesterday right as I logged out.]

Hahahaha!  I'm really good at this!
Paelos
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Error 404: Title not found.


Reply #40 on: May 08, 2012, 09:03:52 AM

Folks, I'll tell you what I know about this with no bias from my CPA standpoint.

The stock is getting clobbered today, setting new 52 week lows. In fact, I believe the last time the stock dipped below $14 a share was 1999. Of course, that was 2 stock splits of 2:1 ago. Investors are getting wind of the facts represented in the financials about SWTOR and ME. Also it's interesting that the company set aside $27M for a lawsuit settlement likely relating to the case lodged by the NFLPA against Madden.

The company is carrying an absurd amount of Goodwill on the Balance Sheet as of 3/31/12. At over $1.7 Billion, the Goodwill is $600M higher than the period 12 months ago. I'm personally not buying that as an accountant, and I question the valuation of Goodwill for impairment. Also, I'm suspicious of their $391M markdown due to a change in the deferred revenue related to digital content. What they are doing is trying to smooth out the losses by extending the revenues over the estimated life of the project. Whether or not that estimated life actually matches with subscriber numbers? Who is to say. It's not an audited set of financials. Either way, expect that number to come back around when they start posting GAAP losses so they can show Non-GAAP gains. 2011 FYE is a good reference point for that behavior.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
naum
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WWW
Reply #41 on: May 08, 2012, 09:20:53 AM

Game did not strike me as compelling enough for booting into Windows.

Yeah, no doubt, I will draw ire for that statement here.

But I think the age of mega-blockbuster Windows-only games has past.

Even looking at browser stats for sites I manage heavily trafficked by an older crowd, the Mac % is approaching 15-20% (and the sites where the viewing audience skews younger, that mark is 30-35% Mac users). Throw in mobile (counting Android, iPhone, iPad, etc.) users that is now approaching ~20%, and you see that Windows platform does not enjoy computing monopoly like a did a decade ago.

So any game that precludes almost half of computing users is not going to be a blockbuster -- at best, it's a successful niche game.

Diablo 3 will be a blockbuster, but just like all previous Blizzard offerings, it's a cross-platform game.

"There must not be a God because a demon hand didn't burst out of the ground, reach into Jindal's anus, and pull him inside out before dragging him into the shit-filled sodomy pits of Hades." If you read that and thought, "Well, this is a reasonable person who should be treated with respect," then perhaps it is your anus that needs a hellclawing. ~The Rude Pundit
Nevermore
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Reply #42 on: May 08, 2012, 09:23:38 AM

By the way, for people like Nevermore and Sky who think the haters have churned out and the numbers will level off - throw out some numbers. Where do you think subs will be at 3 and 6 months from now?

I'll play your game after you point out where I called anyone a 'hater'.  Nice rant, though.

Over and out.
Outlawedprod
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Reply #43 on: May 08, 2012, 12:11:59 PM

I'll predict they'll be below 800k subscribers by July 1 unless they continue giving out free months.
Soln
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the opportunity for evil is just delicious


Reply #44 on: May 08, 2012, 01:38:00 PM

Let's try another perspective:  When did WAR hit the skids?  Approximately from launch?  And when did MJ leave? 

If you look that those dates, and throw in the time Schild tried to explain to MJ what was wong, then that might give a better estimate of when EA will put the pressure on the BW leadership.   Only then after those dates should we consider life/death scenarios.  If EA said "you have 6 months to make your target", then that's when we can start expect big changes like cross server LFD to come.
Nevermore
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Reply #45 on: May 08, 2012, 01:46:41 PM

Cross server LFG is already on its way.  It's coming in 1.3 iirc.  I'd say the single biggest mistake Bioware made was not launching with a robust LFG system already in place.

Over and out.
Paelos
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Reply #46 on: May 08, 2012, 01:54:14 PM

Let's try another perspective:  When did WAR hit the skids?  Approximately from launch?  And when did MJ leave? 

If you look that those dates, and throw in the time Schild tried to explain to MJ what was wong, then that might give a better estimate of when EA will put the pressure on the BW leadership.   Only then after those dates should we consider life/death scenarios.  If EA said "you have 6 months to make your target", then that's when we can start expect big changes like cross server LFD to come.

Uh, the top brass are already trying to disassociate themselves from the SWTOR project. I'd say that's the impending doom sign. A lynchpin product promotion when it was released is suddenly no more important than their Tiger Woods franchise? It's not in the Top 5 of your franchises? Oh, and then they blamed those crappy "casual" gamers for sinking the project.  Ohhhhh, I see.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Minvaren
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Reply #47 on: May 08, 2012, 02:04:14 PM

Let's try another perspective:  When did WAR hit the skids?  Approximately from launch?  And when did MJ leave? 

If you look that those dates, and throw in the time Schild tried to explain to MJ what was wong, then that might give a better estimate of when EA will put the pressure on the BW leadership.   Only then after those dates should we consider life/death scenarios.  If EA said "you have 6 months to make your target", then that's when we can start expect big changes like cross server LFD to come.

Uh, the top brass are already trying to disassociate themselves from the SWTOR project. I'd say that's the impending doom sign. A lynchpin product promotion when it was released is suddenly no more important than their Tiger Woods franchise? It's not in the Top 5 of your franchises? Oh, and then they blamed those crappy "casual" gamers for sinking the project.  Ohhhhh, I see.

This isn't the game you're looking for?  (handwave)   why so serious?

"There are many things of which a wise man might wish to remain ignorant." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
Fordel
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Reply #48 on: May 08, 2012, 02:08:12 PM

I think Subs will continue to keep dipping down and down until they release a new content patch that actually expands the class/companion story lines. That's where the solo players investment is currently and that's what will actually bring people back in huge numbers. It's what they've failed to deliver on so far, that constant stream of personalized story.

There are a lot of other things that are needed and if/when implemented will help numbers too, cross server LFD/LFG, dual spec, a end game gearing system that doesn't look like a best hits album of TBC WoW. (The End game PvP gearing system has changed dramatically no less then 3 times since launch, causing a power gap each time and shunning people off)


But the big "We have saved the game!" stop the bleeding and increase in sub numbers, will come if/when they can deliver more class/companion content.

and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
Paelos
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Reply #49 on: May 08, 2012, 02:11:41 PM

I agree with that. I keep asking my buddy who signed up for 6 months at release,

Me - "So are they are Chapter 4 yet?"

Him - "No, some dungeon thing just came out tho..."

Me - "Pass. Thanks. Let me know if they release the new storyline."

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Rokal
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Reply #50 on: May 08, 2012, 02:14:38 PM

I think Subs will continue to keep dipping down and down until they release a new content patch that actually expands the class/companion story lines. That's where the solo players investment is currently and that's what will actually bring people back in huge numbers. It's what they've failed to deliver on so far, that constant stream of personalized story.

So the key to keeping subscribers is more expensive, non-repeatable content that players with only one class at cap will see 1/8th of? Got it.  Ohhhhh, I see.

It's not a sustainable model, and it's going to be even less attractive to EA with their numbers dropping. It would be awesome if they could pull it off, as it's clearly the content people want most, but I don't see it happening. Expect to see more repeatable level-cap content and little to no patch content for class stories.
Nevermore
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Reply #51 on: May 08, 2012, 02:17:38 PM

I think Subs will continue to keep dipping down and down until they release a new content patch that actually expands the class/companion story lines. That's where the solo players investment is currently and that's what will actually bring people back in huge numbers. It's what they've failed to deliver on so far, that constant stream of personalized story.

There are a lot of other things that are needed and if/when implemented will help numbers too, cross server LFD/LFG, dual spec, a end game gearing system that doesn't look like a best hits album of TBC WoW. (The End game PvP gearing system has changed dramatically no less then 3 times since launch, causing a power gap each time and shunning people off)


But the big "We have saved the game!" stop the bleeding and increase in sub numbers, will come if/when they can deliver more class/companion content.

I would agree with this as well.  Although I really want LFG just so I can finally see the rest of the flashpoints, the real reason I play is for the stories of each class.  And since Rokal thinks it's a bad idea, then it must be the right way to go!  why so serious?

Over and out.
Rokal
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Reply #52 on: May 08, 2012, 02:21:50 PM

I would agree with this as well.  Although I really want LFG just so I can finally see the rest of the flashpoints, the real reason I play is for the stories of each class.  And since Rokal thinks it's not a financially feasible idea, then it must be the right way to go!  why so serious?

Fixed. It would be exactly the content they should be making if they didn't dig themselves into a hole by making class content so expensive to create and with such a small return.
Fordel
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Reply #53 on: May 08, 2012, 02:29:20 PM

I think Subs will continue to keep dipping down and down until they release a new content patch that actually expands the class/companion story lines. That's where the solo players investment is currently and that's what will actually bring people back in huge numbers. It's what they've failed to deliver on so far, that constant stream of personalized story.

So the key to keeping subscribers is more expensive, non-repeatable content that players with only one class at cap will see 1/8th of? Got it.  Ohhhhh, I see.

It's not a sustainable model, and it's going to be even less attractive to EA with their numbers dropping. It would be awesome if they could pull it off, as it's clearly the content people want most, but I don't see it happening. Expect to see more repeatable level-cap content and little to no patch content for class stories.

You don't even need it to be capped content for the classes. All your companions (except the first one you get) have a bunch of moments that SHOULD be companion quests but are just your companion going "wehlp BRB!"


Then on your ship, you add a little holo diary/journal, that lets you repeat companion quests/dialogues for fun after you finished them.





and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
Lantyssa
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Reply #54 on: May 08, 2012, 02:36:06 PM

So the key to keeping subscribers is more expensive, non-repeatable content that players with only one class at cap will see 1/8th of? Got it.  Ohhhhh, I see.
Not our fault they chose to sell their business on something they can't produce.  Just as it is for my company, it'll be the death of them.

Hahahaha!  I'm really good at this!
Paelos
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Reply #55 on: May 08, 2012, 02:36:35 PM

I always thought it was very odd that the companions just...left.

I was thinking, man I'm the biggest badess JK in the galaxy but they don't trust me to help them do their home laundry? What's that about?

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
proudft
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Reply #56 on: May 08, 2012, 02:48:25 PM

I thought it was hilarious when the warbot left on his wacky missions.  I thought that was, like, his thing.  Then it turned out pretty much all the companions do that except your first one for each class.   rolleyes

But it was still funny when I thought it was just him!
caladein
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Reply #57 on: May 08, 2012, 02:59:08 PM

I'm fully in favor of companion characters having their own shit that I don't need to be a part of.  But more companion stuff in general is always welcome.

"Point being, they can't make everyone happy, so I hope they pick me." -Ingmar
"OH MY GOD WE'RE SURROUNDED SEND FOR BACKUP DIG IN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS MAN YOUR NECKBEARDS" -tgr
luckton
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Reply #58 on: May 08, 2012, 03:06:00 PM

LFD should have been in this patch.  I would have gladly sacrificed parts or all of the Legacy thing in order to get LFD in and working ASAP. 

"Those lights, combined with the polygamous Nazi mushrooms, will mess you up."

"Tuning me out doesn't magically change the design or implementation of said design. Though, that'd be neat if it did." -schild
Fordel
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Reply #59 on: May 08, 2012, 03:24:37 PM

I don't know if I agree with that. Legacy brought a lot of interest in me playing alts I was otherwise not giving two shits about.

and the gate is like I TOO AM CAPABLE OF SPEECH
Minvaren
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Reply #60 on: May 08, 2012, 03:32:07 PM

Agreeing with Fordel here, a couple of my alts only exist because of the Legacy stuff.

Now if only I had the will to consistently farm dailies to buy all the perks...   swamp poop

"There are many things of which a wise man might wish to remain ignorant." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
luckton
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Reply #61 on: May 08, 2012, 03:33:39 PM

Well I did say 'parts'  Ohhhhh, I see.

I'll agree that they did the Legacy system well.  Whether it was the best priority over other things they could have done is debatable.

"Those lights, combined with the polygamous Nazi mushrooms, will mess you up."

"Tuning me out doesn't magically change the design or implementation of said design. Though, that'd be neat if it did." -schild
Nevermore
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Reply #62 on: May 08, 2012, 03:36:52 PM

I would agree with this as well.  Although I really want LFG just so I can finally see the rest of the flashpoints, the real reason I play is for the stories of each class.  And since Rokal thinks it's not a financially feasible idea, then it must be the right way to go!  why so serious?

Fixed. It would be exactly the content they should be making if they didn't dig themselves into a hole by making class content so expensive to create and with such a small return.

You probably didn't notice, but a lot of the dialog in the stories is reusable and is used multiple times.  I think you overestimate how expensive it would be to produce an Act IV.  Your 'small return' comment also leads me to believe you underestimate how many people play the game for the stories.

Over and out.
Paelos
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Reply #63 on: May 08, 2012, 03:49:47 PM

Rokal was in favor of the changes to WoW during Cataclysm. He has absolutely no clue what makes a game successful.

CPA, Sports blogger, Mount and Blade enthusiast
Braves by the Numbers, my sports blog
Rokal
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Reply #64 on: May 08, 2012, 03:54:45 PM

You probably didn't notice, but a lot of the dialog in the stories is reusable and is used multiple times.  I think you overestimate how expensive it would be to produce an Act IV.  Your 'small return' comment also leads me to believe you underestimate how many people play the game for the stories.
'Small return' was in reference to the fact that any given story content they produce could potentially only be seen by 1/8 of classes. They could produce class story content that was largely the same between classes, but I don't know that it would be very satisfying for most players. That reduces the appeal of repeating that content on any other characters you might have, if the class story is covering the same areas, situations, or npcs.

For comparison, Blizzard has stated that class-specific content was not worth doing because of a high cost for content that a small portion of overall players would see. That's without factoring in how much additional writing and voice acting are required when doing the same thing in SWTOR. At a minimum players will be expecting that their character and all of their companions will have voiced dialog during the quest. That's already a huge expense with 8 classes, two genders for each class, and a slew of companions.

SWTOR is not a game with a paltry amount of content, but "I ran out of stuff to do besides rolling alts" seems to be the main reason people quit. There is plenty of content in the game, it's just extremely fragmented based on two factions and 8 classes. It took them 5 years to make the amount of story content you currently see and make no mistake: that's what the focus of development was. Why you imagine they could suddenly start churning out satisfying class story content at a fast speed and high quality, I don't know.

Rokal was in favor of the changes to WoW during Cataclysm. He has absolutely no clue what makes a game successful.

To put it another way, they seem to have focused 90%+ of their content creation time on non-repeatable quest content (story, leveling). If this is not a recipe for success, do you really think they're going to keep putting out large amounts of class content in patches? Much more likely that they're going to try to develop repeatable, cheap, end-game content.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 04:02:38 PM by Rokal »
Simond
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Reply #65 on: May 08, 2012, 04:08:28 PM

EA are going to put all of the Bioware studios on a very short leash, if they haven't done so already. Fucking up one IP is careless. Fucking up two begins to look like incompetence.

"You're really a good person, aren't you? So, there's no path for you to take here. Go home. This isn't a place for someone like you."
Ingmar
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Reply #66 on: May 08, 2012, 04:14:06 PM

LFD should have been in this patch.  I would have gladly sacrificed parts or all of the Legacy thing in order to get LFD in and working ASAP. 

Not me. LFD would be nice, sure, but the Legacy stuff is way more relevant to *me*.

The Transcendent One: AH... THE ROGUE CONSTRUCT.
Nordom: Sense of closure: imminent.
Sjofn
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Reply #67 on: May 08, 2012, 04:17:25 PM

My only sorrow about the Legacy stuff is I can see all the stuff they're going to add in the next round and I'm going to have like one character left that might benefit from most of it.



Really need more character slots.  why so serious?

God Save the Horn Players
Rokal
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Reply #68 on: May 08, 2012, 04:19:04 PM

Not me. LFD would be nice, sure, but the Legacy stuff is way more relevant to *me*.

The legacy stuff was a much better fit with the game they built than LFD will be. They turned playing alts into a tangible end-game.
caladein
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Reply #69 on: May 08, 2012, 04:21:01 PM

Your 'small return' comment also leads me to believe you underestimate how many people play the game for the stories.

Player value isn't the relevant metric here, but how long it keeps players subscribed for.  A "chapter 4" gets you a month or two of subs from people and that's it.

That needs to get you a lot more subs that you wouldn't otherwise get with content that gets people to stick around for twice as long.

"Point being, they can't make everyone happy, so I hope they pick me." -Ingmar
"OH MY GOD WE'RE SURROUNDED SEND FOR BACKUP DIG IN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS MAN YOUR NECKBEARDS" -tgr
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