NFL 2012

[Ingmar]

I think AJ Green probably deserves to be on that list.

[Paelos]

I looked at teams that took a WR in the first round to see what happened:

2011 - Bengals, Falcons, Chiefs take WRs. Bengals and Falcons get obliterated in the playoffs, Chiefs don't make it.
2010 - Broncos and Cowboys take WRs. Cowboys don't make the playoffs that year or the following year. Broncos don't make the playoffs in 2010, luck out against Pitt in 2011 and get demolished by the Pats.
2009 - Niners, Eagles, Giants, Titans take WRs. Niners took Crabtree. Niners didn't make the playoffs until 2011, and Crabtree was a non-factor. Giants took Hakeem Nicks. He's probably the biggest difference maker so far on the list with his play in 2011 postseason. Titans and Eagles are...well they are stupid.
2008 - Nobody took a WR! This may be known as the draft of horrible mistakes. As an example, Oakland took Darren McFadden 4th. Meanwhile Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice were on the board. Biggest steal went to the Saints who drafted OT Carl Nicks in the 5th round. Wonder why they won the Super Bowl the next year?
2007 - Detroit, Miami, KC, New Orleans, San Diego, and Indy take WRs. The only pro-bowler on that list is Calvin Johnson, and he's done fuckall to win them a playoff game. The lions also had the first ever 0-16 in 2008.

So, I'm just going to go ahead and say that taking a WR in the first round is probably the absolute dumbest thing you could possible do, unless his name is Hakeem Nicks, and you have 2 years to wait for it, and you draft a pro-bowler DE the following year.

[Ingmar]

Crabtree has been a big factor this year, it should be pointed out.

[Paelos]

Crabtree has been a big factor this year, it should be pointed out.

5 TDs, 28th in yards. One difference making TD catch in a game against the Rams that caused a tie. I'd still take the lineman.

[sickrubik]

It's almost like you can't adequately hold one player in a vacuum as for the reason for the success or failure of a team! Also, WRs have to rely on another player for their stats.

Any of the teams up there that had bad years have a LOT more to blame than just drafting a WR in the first round.

[Paelos]

True, but I think it's a good red flag for "HEY MY GM IS MAKING TERRIBLE DECISIONS!"

[Ingmar]

Crabtree has been a big factor this year, it should be pointed out.

5 TDs, 28th in yards. One difference making TD catch in a game against the Rams that caused a tie. I'd still take the lineman.

Well, and we did. Another linemen on the 49ers wouldn't make much of a difference.

[Paelos]

Well, and we did. Another linemen on the 49ers wouldn't make much of a difference.

You've given up the 5th most sacks in the NFL. I disagree.

[Ingmar]

A lot of that (and also the low INT total) boils down to Alex Smith actually being told by the coaching staff to take a sack instead of throwing it away and risking a turnover. A larger proportion of 49er sacks are QB-fault sacks because of this. I think the numbers that the running game puts up are a better indicator of how good the 49ers O-line is.

[sickrubik]

A lot of that (and also the low INT total) boils down to Alex Smith actually being told by the coaching staff to take a sack instead of throwing it away and risking a turnover. A larger proportion of 49er sacks are QB-fault sacks because of this. I think the numbers that the running game puts up are a better indicator of how good the 49ers O-line is.

What he said. I'd put the Niners front line in the top 5, easily. Individual stats in a vacuum don't mean a whole lot. There is too much context that is needed.

[Segoris]

I think there is definitely an argument for Green. I also think there are arguments to be made for Vincent Jackson and Reggie Wayne. I put Bowe in the same category as Boldin, and am borderline on Roddie White with how well he still did last year while Ryan was sucking ass as he continues to produce with a lesser run game as support.



As for SF and their running game being good because their O-line is good, I'm not sold. It's possible, but Gore quite likely makes them look better than they are

[Ingmar]

Gore is great, sure, but Joe Staley pancaking a defender 20 yards downfield isn't happening because of anything Gore is doing.

[HaemishM]

Top 3 worst teams in sacks allowed? Arizona, Green Bay and San Fran in that order. After that it's Chicago, San Diego and Philly. Of those 6 teams, only Philly (2), Arizona (3) and Green Bay (6) also are among the top 6 if QB hits given up. Philly (1), Arizona (2), Green Bay (4) and Chicago (5) are also among the league's worst in being tackled for a loss. Only Arizona was in any of those categories in 2011 (sacks).

Green Bay and San Fran WILL make the playoffs. Chicago might miss the playoffs. The rest of those teams are pretty fucking terrible. OL has a big effect on team performance, and QB performance in particular. DUH. I imagine Bears fans are wishing they had a line like Houston, which has only allowed 14 sacks all year.

[Draegan]

True, but I think it's a good red flag for "HEY MY GM IS MAKING TERRIBLE DECISIONS!"

That's a stupid blanket statement because it depends on the team makeup and their position in the draft.

[Rasix]

That Houston stat is funny.  Didn't David Carr basically get sacked into oblivion their first few years?

[HaemishM]

That Houston stat is funny.  Didn't David Carr basically get sacked into oblivion their first few years?

I blame David Carr being a bust on the fact that he took one too many disco biscuits to the head his first few years. He put up some good stats other than too many interceptions but anyone who watched his games could see he was always running for his fucking life.

Now that I think on QB's the Cardinals could have called, I wonder why Leinart wasn't on the list. Is he backing someone up already? I mean, he can't possibly do any fucking worse than Skelton and Lindley.

[Segoris]

Gore is great, sure, but Joe Staley pancaking a defender 20 yards downfield isn't happening because of anything Gore is doing.

No, but I've also seen a few of the Bear's OL making a block sometimes (it's happened, I SWEAR!). I'm not saying they're bad, just that I'm not entirely convinced they're great.

Green Bay and San Fran WILL make the playoffs. Chicago might miss the playoffs. The rest of those teams are pretty fucking terrible. OL has a big effect on team performance, and QB performance in particular. DUH. I imagine Bears fans are wishing they had a line like Houston, which has only allowed 14 sacks all year.

of the last 10 years, Chi has had 7 first round picks to draft someone, 3 were OL...and you see where we are with our OL.

[HaemishM]

You have chosen... poorly. 

[Segoris]

Hah, that is putting it very lightly!

Though we have picked a couple players who have played great...just not for us (see: Cedric Benson and Greg Olsen discounting his first year).

[Shannow]

You are right, one player in a vacumn doesn't make or break a team. My arguement is that in terms of how many plays a WR has to make vs a lineman it's simply ineffecient to draft a WR with a high pick. The only reason the Pats drafted TE's in the first round were because TE's are also useful in the blocking game (though Ben Watson and Daniel GRaham turned out to be mediocre anyway). This is essentially a statistical value premise and statistics only go so far but they sure do make a good starting point.

Then you need WRs who can run routes, HBs who can actually block, QBs who will make throws or get rid of the ball quick instead of tryin to be a hero on every play, coaches who can coach o-line and so forth.

[HaemishM]

I never understood why the Bears got rid of Olsen. That guy was a solid pass catching tight end. I bet Cutler misses him a lot.

[Segoris]

Two part answer

1) Mike Martz hates TEs
2) Jerry Angelo makes many bad decisions.

:edit: ...they then combined forces. I'm actually surprised both of them are already gone and that we didn't ride out a couple more years of that wankery.

[Nevermore]

On the opposite side, the Dolphins have been picking a lot of linemen early and basically ignoring the WR position and look where its gotten them.

[HaemishM]

The Dolphins are one good wideout (maybe two) from being the playoffs. That team has probably done more with less this year than anybody.

[Nevermore]

That's kind of my point.  Ignoring the WR position probably cost them a playoff spot this year.  And apparently if they address this glaring need early on in the draft next year their GM deserves to be fired. 

[HaemishM]

We're not saying WR are unimportant, only that they usually aren't worth wasting a first round pick on. Randall Cobb was a 2nd round pick. Jordy Nelson was a second rounder. Greg Jennings was a 2nd rounder. All 3 are solid WR playing behind an elite QB. Boldin was a 2nd rounder. Wes Welker was undrafted. Marques Colston was a 7th rounder. Brandon Marshall was a 4th rounder. You don't have to spend a 1st round pick on wide out to get pro bowl caliber players. You just need to have someone worth a damn throwing them the rock, someone that isn't getting facefucked every third play (or has the escapability to make plays like Rodgers does).

[Paelos]

That's kind of my point.  Ignoring the WR position probably cost them a playoff spot this year.  And apparently if they address this glaring need early on in the draft next year their GM deserves to be fired. 

They drafted Ted Ginn in the first round of 2007. It was dumb. Behind him in that draft went 9 probowlers, including 2 O line guys for the Niners and the Ravens. Also Marshawn Lynch, and Derrelle Revis. Also Dwayne Bowe went in the first round to KC.

They could have had 2 probowler WRs in Steve Smith or Sidney Rice in the 2nd round. They took a shitty QB named John Beck.

My point about WR isn't to ignore them. My point is that for the most part they are wildly overrated as a first round choice.

[Nevermore]

You can find late round gems and first round busts at any position, though.

[WayAbvPar]

The Dolphins are one good wideout (maybe two) from being the playoffs. That team has probably done more with less this year than anybody.

Philbin just might be a better coach than I gave him credit for. He was just so dull on Hard Knocks it was hard to imagine him being inventive and/or inspiring anyone. He must be a hell of a poker player 

[Tannhauser]

Yeah, he didn't come off too well on that show.  I really enjoyed that peek into a clubhouse.  It was kind of bittersweet. 

[Ingmar]

Our current dramaz:

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/12/10/brandon-jacobs-suspension-the-right-move-for-the-49ers/

Not too surprising that he's upset, but, you know, if you want to play, play better.

[Tannhauser]

The Jets and Cowboys are still in the playoff hunt.  Let that sink in for a moment.

[Trippy]

Well the Cowboys have a winning record so that's not surprising. The Jets are still in it despite a losing record thanks to the anemic AFC West and the fact that Pittsburgh's defense isn't scaring anybody this year. In Peter King's MMQB column there was this amusing set of stats about Sanchez and the Jets:

he New York Jets have a two-game winning streak, and there's a chance it's the ugliest two-game winning streak in their history. Mark Sanchez's last 40 possessions (over the last three games, dating to Thanksgiving night against the Patriots) have produced, among other results: One touchdown pass. Three touchdown runs. Ten turnovers. Fifteen punts.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/12/10/Week14/index.html#ixzz2EhjRib8O

[sickrubik]

Cowboys are getting healthy (well except for Dez) and clicking when they need too.

[Paelos]

What Houston team did I just watch?