Predictions: 1m+ players 3 days out; how about in January 2013?

[01101010]

My first character was a Merc BH and I got bored of bending over and shooting missile off of my back all day.  It is a great class though.

I am going with the incendiary missile. Tracer got boring, but lighting bitches on fire never gets old. 

[Kageru]

I'd love to look at their retention figures... I don't think it's going that well. Enough content they probably cleared the 1 month hurdle, but once the leveling content is consumed not so much. They obviously don't want to merge servers for the bad PR but it's some of the most active forum threads and the numbers certainly look like it's not something they can ignore;

@ approx. 7:30-8:00 PM EST, on a Friday night (prime time by any standard) there were 40 LIGHT US servers, 6 HEAVY, 1 VERY HEAVY, the rest were STANDARD. Out of curiosity, rolled an EMP and REP toon on 6 random LIGHT servers and did a global check on players logged onto the server, on all instances. Max I saw out of the 6 was 253 players, minimum was 98. Total, Rep and Emp combined. My own server, there were 198 total, with 10 Rep 50s, and 15 Emp 50s. Out of my guild, which had 230+ toons at one point, with around 50 active players at any given prime play time, had a grand total of 2. Merge all 7 servers and you still wouldn't have 1 active server. (post by Smitar on official forums)

Of course the most likely result is the /who command will be disabled.

[Fordel]

What's killing them is no LFG and/or CrossServer.

My fleet stations general is just a endless stream of "LFM/LFG" in all level ranges, with no one getting what they need.

PvP wise, it's the same people, every night, every warzone, for hours on end. If your current batch of players can't beat their current batch of players, well your screwed for the next hour or two until some fresh faces rotate in. If your batch is winning, well I hope you enjoy hutball as their batch heads off onto an alt or whatever. The pool is just too small.

Illum is also a cruel joke with only 8 people on one side, 3 on the other.

[Kageru]

Yes, absolutely. If you have cross-server services and match-making then small servers are less of an issue. If everything is server based then you need to be willing to make sure the servers have a critical mass of players. Likewise not expanding servers too fast (Guild wars idea of having overflow servers is excellent) initially is important if you are not readily willing to merge.

I guess their plan called for constant growth from launch and they don't want to admit that's not happening. Either that or, more likely, they just never considered it and build the infrastructure to let them easily merge servers. But ignoring the problem exacerbates it either way.

[eldaec]

What's killing them is no LFG and/or CrossServer.

My fleet stations general is just a endless stream of "LFM/LFG" in all level ranges, with no one getting what they need.

Worse than this, it's all...

LFM Assmunchers of Malachor FP

... so I see it scrolling past and don't have the foggiest idea what level they want.

Tiny level window for you to be effective in these things + no sidekicking + no useful LFG tool etc etc , it's just way too much of a ball ache. Lack of 2002 era social tools are killing grouping and now starting to cull players who are interested in playing this as a multiplayer game.

[Paelos]

I think the reason it's going sideways is because the game doesn't really give you much of a reason to be interactive with other people until later in the process, and the bugs at the top end really kill the fun when you have to fight glitches instead of bosses.

[MuffinMan]

I'd love to look at their retention figures...

Probably the best you're going to find...

The company launched “Star Wars” in late December, and reported it has sold through more than 2 million units of the game and now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in.

Source

Edit: That's what I get for not looking through the thread, this was already posted. Also, I've never trusted /who to give an accurate player count on an MMO.

[Merusk]

You can't trust /who unless you're doing it all the time.   Which you can't do as a solo account other than one server, one side.

[Malakili]

You can't trust /who unless you're doing it all the time.   Which you can't do as a solo account other than one server, one side.

Well, true enough, but I would also say that when I've seen that sort of thing start to come up on forums (player counts and people doing /who), it often does actually seem that a problem is noted more officially somewhere down the line.  Maybe it is that it is sort of easy to feel the absence of players, and the /who is sort of confirming something we already notice. But regardless of how accurate it is, I think it is generally a bad sign that people even feel compelled to check. 

At any rate, we'll find out eventually, and my guess would be SWTOR will suffer the fate of all other MMORPGs in the last 5 years - decline followed me a switch to free to play eventually.

[Soln]

moving to the right thread

[Fordel]

I think the reason it's going sideways is because the game doesn't really give you much of a reason to be interactive with other people until later in the process, and the bugs at the top end really kill the fun when you have to fight glitches instead of bosses.

That isn't true though, it's one of the most group friendly games for leveling around. It's not only more fun with a friend or two, it's mechanically superior in almost every regard.

[Soln]

yes but the game doesnt support socializing.  Premades work best.

[Riggswolfe]

At any rate, we'll find out eventually, and my guess would be SWTOR will suffer the fate of all other MMORPGs in the last 5 years - decline followed me a switch to free to play eventually.

I disagree. As much as you guys love to hate on pretty much all MMOs except what is currently the darling around here (currently GW2) this game is superior to any other game launched in the last 5 years.

[Nebu]

I disagree. As much as you guys love to hate on pretty much all MMOs except what is currently the darling around here (currently GW2) this game is superior to any other game launched in the last 5 years.

Rift is a superior game.  It just lacks the marketing glam and immersive feel.  I'd also say that WoT is a superior game, though calling it an MMO is a stretch.

[Paelos]

They are both vying for King of Turdtown, though.

Rift was blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, and the overabundance of class mix/match just felt odd to me. SWTOR had story up to the point where you hit max, and then it was a worse raiding version of WoW with more bugs. I won't even get into the pvp of either because I tried WAR for that, and, well, you know...

[Ingmar]

There's no chance of F2P anytime soon, some of the doom & gloom here is really on the ridiculous side.

[Nebu]

There's no chance of F2P anytime soon, some of the doom & gloom here is really on the ridiculous side.

As it's unfair to dismiss speculation from one party with more speculation, please clarify.

[Simond]

Rift was blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, and the overabundance of class mix/match just felt odd to me. SWTOR had story up to the point where you hit max, and then it was a worse raiding version of WoW with more bugs. I won't even get into the pvp of either because I tried WAR for that, and, well, you know...

You should play STO instead. Everyone knows Star Trek > Star Wars anyway. 

[Lakov_Sanite]

And they call ME a troll with simond here? 

But yeah it's kind of funny how to make the perfect wow killer all you'd need would be the setting and story of SWTOR with the mechanics of Rift. Together they would be unstoppable, seperate they both feel....lacking,

[Sjofn]

I would be happy to do flashpoints with people while leveling if there was a fucking LFD tool worth a fuck. And I want it cross-server too, dammit.

[Nevermore]

I disagree. As much as you guys love to hate on pretty much all MMOs except what is currently the darling around here (currently GW2) this game is superior to any other game launched in the last 5 years.

Rift is a superior game.  It just lacks the marketing glam and immersive feel.  I'd also say that WoT is a superior game, though calling it an MMO is a stretch.

Define 'game'.  Rift might be technically superior, but I think SWTOR is a better *game*.

[Kageru]

As much as you guys love to hate on pretty much all MMOs except what is currently the darling around here (currently GW2) this game is superior to any other game launched in the last 5 years.

Truly a damning indictment of the Genre.

The important thing is that SWTOR appears to be under-performing relative to bioware's expectations. Their lack of activity when some servers have gone below critical mass (/who on a server giving 100 people at prime time is a dead server, even if a single sample has a large margin of error) means either they're not prepared or ready to admit that or they hope 1.2 will be the miracle patch. If it is trending downwards the question will be whether WoW was a freak occurrence or why SWTOR could not match the same trajectory.

It will be interesting to watch.

I will say their idea of a "phased roll-out" is looking dumb. When they try and expand globally they now have to do so in an environment with bad word of mouth and where their main advertising push was months ago. Gaming media is global after-all. Good luck on them matching WoW in the Asian market which helped pad their subscription numbers so well. In theory their Asia pacific launch is in a week and I've no idea if they are even bothering with advertising.

[Threash]

I enjoyed Rift a lot more and for a lot longer than this.

[Evildrider]

As much as you guys love to hate on pretty much all MMOs except what is currently the darling around here (currently GW2) this game is superior to any other game launched in the last 5 years.

Truly a damning indictment of the Genre.

The important thing is that SWTOR appears to be under-performing relative to bioware's expectations. Their lack of activity when some servers have gone below critical mass (/who on a server giving 100 people at prime time is a dead server, even if a single sample has a large margin of error) means either they're not prepared or ready to admit that or they hope 1.2 will be the miracle patch. If it is trending downwards the question will be whether WoW was a freak occurrence or why SWTOR could not match the same trajectory.

It will be interesting to watch.

I will say their idea of a "phased roll-out" is looking dumb. When they try and expand globally they now have to do so in an environment with bad word of mouth and where their main advertising push was months ago. Gaming media is global after-all. Good luck on them matching WoW in the Asian market which helped pad their subscription numbers so well. In theory their Asia pacific launch is in a week and I've no idea if they are even bothering with advertising.

Besides Japan, Austrailia, and NZ.  I don't think the rest of the area gives a hoot about Star Wars.  They aren't competing to beat WoW, I don't know why you think they would even be trying to match them.

[UnSub]

I haven't seen any ads in Australia for it, and was in an EB on Saturday that looked like it was already selling copies of SWOR. They may have just been preorder boxes, but they were on the "proper" PC game shelves and the boxes certainly didn't have pre-order on them.

Again, going back - WAR did the same thing. It kept its sub numbers looking better by releasing in a new region every few months. But that only lasts so long before you run out of regions. Plus the localisation of SWOR will be a lot more complex than the localisation of WAR.

[Rasix]

I enjoyed Rift a lot more and for a lot longer than this.

Eh, I didn't.  While Rift was a better MMO, it was a worse game for me.  It was easy to appreciate the craft and thought that went into it, and honestly, I played it longer than I normally would because I wanted them to be rewarded for their effort.  But like others said, it was bland and frightfully boring for a solo player.  It's too bad they were too married to the standard MMO systems they executed.

I imagine activity levels and sub numbers will decrease shortly with ME3's release.  If there's one think Bioware fans love to do, it's play the shit out of the newest Bioware game.

[Sjofn]

If there's one think Bioware fans love to do, it's play the shit out of the newest Bioware game.

I also am (obvs) playing and enjoying SWTOR more than RIFT. This is not really a knock on RIFT. Aside from the blandyblandbland world (which is weird to me, because the premise seems like it could ... be less bland? Or something?), I can't really explain why I didn't love it more than I did.

[Jherad]

I toleratedRift for a long time, because as Nebu said, it is technically superior. The story and lore didn't grab me though, so it lost its veneer quickly. I couldn't identify with my own character.

SWTOR on the other hand is VERY shiny (and I really enjoy the character storylines) but I'm running out of classes to level until I accept that in the short to medium term, there may not be an endgame I enjoy here. Also, there doesn't appear to be any meta game at all.

[Rokal]

I'm enjoying SWTOR more than I enjoyed Rift, but I think Rift was the better game. It felt completely polished and smooth, and it was the logical progression of the WoW model. SWTOR feels like it doesn't have the same competence in it's mechanics. The UI, the combat, the class spec system, the lack of public grouping/LFD, the amount of bugs, the often glitchy interaction with the world, etc. What SWTOR does have is the best story/setting we've seen in an MMO, which is quite the hook until you make it to 50 and it disappears.

I'd welcome a F2P conversion, but it's not coming soon if ever. For all we know, it may be prohibited in their contract with Lucasarts (which was the rumor with Gamesworkshop and WAR). Still, I'll be unsubbing when my imperial duo hits 50. I'd love to slowly play a republic character or other alts to the level cap, but not for $15 a month.

But yeah it's kind of funny how to make the perfect wow killer all you'd need would be the setting and story of SWTOR with the mechanics of Rift. Together they would be unstoppable, seperate they both feel....lacking,

Rift polish/mechanics, SWTOR story/setting, TERA combat. I'd play that for a couple years.

[Lakov_Sanite]

I think Rift smacked of dimestore scifi storytelling. The kind of forgettable tripe that authors love to dole out, where they have tomes of backstory already written and you as a new reader as simply submerged in the authors own personal universe.  There are few individual characters you identify with, it's the setting that is alpha and omega, the world that is so complex you feel lost.

Rift was a lot like trying to read a novel 5 books into a 10 book series.

SWTOR of course has a lot of that, except star wars is such a well established lore that people don't even question why they can shoot lightning from their fingers. They just CAN

[Kageru]

Context is important though. Rift probably cost about a quarter of SWTOR, from a smaller company putting out their first MMO without any established back story or existing fan base. The fact they're even being compared reflects well on Rift.

[Sky]

I put in a solid six moths in Rift...well, maybe a solid three months and then three more on and off. I think my favorite part of Rift was playing back before they nerfed most of the soul combinations into comparative mediocrity. There were just so many more fun combinations of cleric in beta. By the time I got around to playing in release it was a shadow as far as stacking up talents. Literally (and using this properly) every soul combo I used in beta was removed from the game by launch. Not builds I ripped from the boards, just lots of time going over the trees and knowing the class. I really miss that in TOR, I haven't respec'd once.

Ah, well. Got my money's worth and that's how I judge these things.

The story. Ye gods. As we were saying the other day, how you can put in a blatantly cyberpunk faction and not capitalize on it? Why were there necromancers and not technomancers? Even within their relatively tame lore, there was lots of room for good story-telling and character.

[Threash]

The story. Ye gods. As we were saying the other day, how you can put in a blatantly cyberpunk faction and not capitalize on it? Why were there necromancers and not technomancers? Even within their relatively tame lore, there was lots of room for good story-telling and character.

The problem is the two factions system they copied from wow, one faction can't be that much cooler than the other.

[Sky]

There's still room to do cool factions in relatively generic fantasy, I think. I played Defiants in beta, I have no idea what the hell is going on with the Guardian faction after playing a couple months in release. That's probably a bad sign that I don't really know anything about the lore of the faction I was playing for two months beyond 'gods ressurected me or something'. There was a cool angel thing I didn't see again.

Two factions copied from WoW? 

[Ratman_tf]

The best thing about the Rift beta was not having to pay retail for the hour I played.