Predictions: 1m+ players 3 days out; how about in January 2013?

[Paelos]

Anyone surprised there's a substantial number of players racing for game and server firsts has never watched an MMO community at work before. That post was from today, so it's a current kill, though I've no idea where hard-mode SOA sits on the ranking.

Mind you extending the content through intentionally buggy raids was an old SOE standby.

I didn't say I didn't expect it. Just that is was hopelessly pathetic.

[Simond]

...because?

[Riggswolfe]

Box sales numbers to me are lower than expected. (Than what I expected anyway)

Anecdotally I know a guy who was jazzed to play but ended up not even getting it after he heard it was mechanically just WoW. Another guy I know asked me if I was playing, I said no, then he said none of his friends were playing and expressed surprise because he thought it was going to be huge. I know a few people who I'm sure will stop playing in a few months.

I don't like predictions because I don't know anything about worldwide release plans but the game doesn't appear to be any sort of WoW-killer, at this point it looks to be moderately more successful than WAR.

Anecdotally almost everyone I call a friend if playing and several of them had sworn off MMOs as dangerous timesinks or were more or less "married" to other games like LOTRO and Wow.

I never thought it would be a WOW-killer. To be blunt I don't think there will ever be a WOW-killer. I think it was a once in a lifetime lightning strike type of game. I take exception with saying it is moderately more successful than WAR. Most servers are standard load, a few are light and a few are still heavy. Long term I don't know how it will play out but I still say it has a good chance for the #2 spot in North America which I believe LOTRO currently holds. (I may be wrong about that) WAR was a total clusterfuck from start to finish. TOR has issues but nowhere near the scale of most launch MMOs that turn into total failures.

[Paelos]

...because?

Because you know the content isn't ready, it isn't working, and you insist on doing it anyway?

[Simond]

So when Verant/SOE pulled the exact same shit, back in the day, it was all perfectly fine and nobody should have complained?

[Paelos]

So when Verant/SOE pulled the exact same shit, back in the day, it was all perfectly fine and nobody should have complained?

They can masturbate into a sock over their failed drops for all I care. Worrying about people who blast through content miles above and beyond the regular population should be pitied, not catered to.

[waylander]

They are probably going to lose a fair amount of subs due to the sorry state of their PVP. 

1. They waited too long to develop Warzone brackets
2. PVP gear makes too much of a difference
3. Ilum is a sad joke with no clear vision for wtf they really want for open world
4. Faction imbalances cause the usual mmo gate camping activity to the under populated side
5. No competitive PVP brackets yet
6. Crowd control is PVP is ridiculous, and the Mythic people working on SWTOR apparently didn't learn that lesson
7. Not setting up multi-server warzone queueing was another bone head/warhammer mistake not learned

On the PVE side of the house I think they are doing well except for......

1. Biochem blows all other skills out of the water and is a must have
2. Player crafting (armor, artiface, etc) is worthless in the end game
3. Too many trash mobs in many of the quests/flashpoints/operations
4. The high end armors look horrible (sith inquistor helm looks like a cone head)

The game may not be doing as well as the analyist would like, but it has potential to grow over time if they pump out enough content, fixes, and new features.  I would play this game just for the PVE.

[Fordel]

I think most folks are over estimating how many people will bail over PvP.

Most people haven't even TRIED PvP yet, they're all still leveling and junk.

[Paelos]

I've yet to see Ilum yet.

[Mrbloodworth]

They are probably going to lose a fair amount of subs due to the sorry state of their PVP. 

1. They waited too long to develop Warzone brackets
2. PVP gear makes too much of a difference
3. Ilum is a sad joke with no clear vision for wtf they really want for open world
4. Faction imbalances cause the usual mmo gate camping activity to the under populated side
5. No competitive PVP brackets yet
6. Crowd control is PVP is ridiculous, and the Mythic people working on SWTOR apparently didn't learn that lesson
7. Not setting up multi-server warzone queueing was another bone head/warhammer mistake not learned

On the PVE side of the house I think they are doing well except for......

1. Biochem blows all other skills out of the water and is a must have
2. Player crafting (armor, artiface, etc) is worthless in the end game
3. Too many trash mobs in many of the quests/flashpoints/operations
4. The high end armors look horrible (sith inquistor helm looks like a cone head)

The game may not be doing as well as the analyist would like, but it has potential to grow over time if they pump out enough content, fixes, and new features.  I would play this game just for the PVE.

Same story, different MMO. PvP is why we can't have nice PvE games. 

[Thrawn]

I think most folks are over estimating how many people will bail over PvP.

Most people haven't even TRIED PvP yet, they're all still leveling and junk.

But when are finished leveling and PvP is one of the few options left to them....

[Lakov_Sanite]

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect them to have a solid endgameright now, considering the amount of maxxed level characters there are.  Yes they can all roll alts but if that's really the goal just have a big "The End" Screen when you hit 50 and finish your characters story arc.

[Ingmar]

Massive numbers of players actually hitting max level always has an impact on design expectations, especially class design stuff. I'm not going to touch PVP for at least another couple months while they tinker with stuff. They've got at least another month of data gathering before it is really clear what things are broken and to what extent.

[rattran]

People who pve to 50, then jump into the pvp 50 bracket are not going to pvp long. Getting stomped by geared 50s will crush their spirit.

[Ingmar]

They should add some crafted starter PVP gear, that would give armortech/synthweaving a shot in the arm at the same time.

[Lakov_Sanite]

What gets me is why they don't normalize gear and levels across the board. It's like they think pvp players really care about their gear in specific battles. Oh sure everyone wants to earn stuff from pvp but you know which pvp games have normalized characters/gear? NEARLY EVERY SINGLE ONE and yet...games like modern warefare, battlefield, league of legends...are all incredibly popular.

le sigh

[Mrbloodworth]

MMORPG players are a special breed. They like that the guy they are attacking is about to be hit with a sword that does more damage than he has health. They will grind for this "skill".

[Fordel]

I think most folks are over estimating how many people will bail over PvP.

Most people haven't even TRIED PvP yet, they're all still leveling and junk.

But when are finished leveling and PvP is one of the few options left to them....

And the Dynamic will be dramatically different when it isn't just 10 guys win trading to get the comms or whatever.

[Nebu]

Same story, different MMO. PvP is why we can't have nice PvE games. 

You can have GREAT pve games.  Just stop adding shitty pvp to them as an afterthought.

[tmp]

I think most folks are over estimating how many people will bail over PvP.

Considering just yesterday couple people were crying in Shien general channel how there's only 6 republic l.50's queued for pvp total, i'd tend to agree.

(i'd think EVE should teach people this lesson already; about just how large/small part of the MMO playerbase is actually interested in PvP, vs sucking veldspar and whacking the rats)

[Mrbloodworth]

Same story, different MMO. PvP is why we can't have nice PvE games. 

You can have GREAT pve games.  Just stop adding shitty pvp to them as an afterthought.

I'm with you.

[kaid]

With the implementation of the level 50 bracket there really should be a set of basic level 50 blues just to get people enough expertise to not get demolished if they start pvping at 50.

[tmp]

Or there could be no expertise.

[Ingmar]

Then that probably re-introduces the problem that organized high level PVE becomes a better path to PVP success than PVP.

And yes, in before "There could be no gear!"

[Fordel]

Then that probably re-introduces the problem that organized high level PVE becomes a better path to PVP success than PVP.

And yes, in before "There could be no gear!"

Or you give PvP rewards equal to PvE ones! "But why will we raid baaaaw". 

[Ingmar]

Well right, that's just the same problem in reverse. Whichever path is easier results in people who don't want to do that doing it because it helps them with the thing they think they want to do, or whatever. That's why resilience/expertise/whatever is a good way to differentiate the two playstyles, it typically tends to stop the sort of crossover that just makes everyone unhappy.

I will say that I think expertise in SWTOR is not a great implementation, though. Making you hit harder is going to be problematic for later entry people.

[tmp]

Then that probably re-introduces the problem that organized high level PVE becomes a better path to PVP success than PVP.

Not so sure about that; at least in the sense that if the expertise is removed out of the equation is the poopsock level raid gear actually that significantly better from what can be obtained outside of it?

[Nonentity]

PVP in MMOs is just jacked in general.

It's fun, but expecting any sort of balance is laughable.

The whole RPG aspect of getting numerically better over time kind of breaks it.

Modern Warfare is popular because out the door, numerically speaking you are pretty similar, and the progression is limited to convenience items, for the most part.

[Ingmar]

Then that probably re-introduces the problem that organized high level PVE becomes a better path to PVP success than PVP.

Not so sure about that; at least in the sense that if the expertise is removed out of the equation is the poopsock level raid gear actually that significantly better from what can be obtained outside of it?

Usually. I'm not sure in the specific case of SWTOR. If it isn't better though you can bet the raiders will be crying instead!

[tmp]

If it isn't better though you can bet the raiders will be crying instead!

Well, they will cry no matter what; if it's not about being able to get loot without raiding then it's about how raid loot itemization sucks and whatnot

(or how Grand Moff Killran deep breathes moar)

[Margalis]

Long term I don't know how it will play out but I still say it has a good chance for the #2 spot in North America which I believe LOTRO currently holds.

If it doesn't hold at least #2 it will have been a colossal failure.

As far as my WAR comment, I didn't mean the game would basically die in a year, rather that it wouldn't end up pulling close to WoW numbers.

I'm sure internally the expectations for SWTOR ranged from better than WOW numbers to a sizable percentage. (Say 30-50%) On paper it looks like it could potentially be bigger than WoW.

[Numtini]

I'm guessing Rift is #2, but it's hard to compare with LOTRO being free to play.

But no matter how negative I am on SWTOR, it's no WAR. If nothing else, it at least delivers even if broken the major promises of the game: wow in Star Wars. War's biggest problem wasn't PVE that was more boring than death. It was that there was nothing to look forward to. It became very obvious early on there was no end game, that RVR was not going to be 200 people struggling over a keep because the engine just couldn't handle it.

SWTOR can deliver on its promises. It's sin is it's promises are so very limited.

[Riggswolfe]

Long term I don't know how it will play out but I still say it has a good chance for the #2 spot in North America which I believe LOTRO currently holds.

If it doesn't hold at least #2 it will have been a colossal failure.

As far as my WAR comment, I didn't mean the game would basically die in a year, rather that it wouldn't end up pulling close to WoW numbers.

I'm sure internally the expectations for SWTOR ranged from better than WOW numbers to a sizable percentage. (Say 30-50%) On paper it looks like it could potentially be bigger than WoW.

There's a big difference between "not Wow" and WAR. War was imo one of the worst MMO failures of all time at least for a game with that much anticipation behind it. If their expectations were greater than WOW numbers they were deluded but I could see them hoping for 30%ish.

[Amaron]

They just announced a couple big pvp fixes today.   Several ability responsiveness issues are supposedly identified and due fixed on PTS and they are nerfing scoundrel/operatives.   As long as they keep this stuff up I'm not ready to downgrade my estimates by much.   People will quit but many will come back in 6 months and new people will keep joining.

[UnSub]

Worrying about people who blast through content miles above and beyond the regular population should be pitied, not catered to.

They shouldn't be catered to, but they are the trailblazers who tell everyone else what is coming. What BioWare wants is, "You suck BioWare because I've completed the content and it is so damn awesome I hate you for not having more of it". Instead, the message is, "You suck BioWare because the endgame content is badly bugged and completely unbalanced and just boring". A lot of players don't post on forums, but will look up what comes next and if all they are seeing is a constant stream of negativity then it impacts on their desire to actually do those tasks.

I'm sure that it will be fixed in time, but the disappointing thing is that despite all the money poured into SWOR, it's the same old story.