S#5 Playoff picture projection and speculations

[lamaros]

If falc wins against andy I guess I gotta get a result against you, otherwise I would be third. Of course if he wins then a win against you would send me top.

If he draws im second unless I beat you. If he loses I'm second whatever happens.

So at this point it looks like andy falc and I could be playing any of nearly 8 players still...

[HaemishM]

If I'm not mistaken, unless I really put the boot in on the Vampires, I will lose out in an tiebreaker with avaia on TD difference.

[avaia]

If I'm not mistaken, unless I really put the boot in on the Vampires, I will lose out in an tiebreaker with avaia on TD difference.

Considering you are two back in TD difference and you need a win and a loss by me...

Not really.   

[Comstar]

Well with Battletech decided, I'm either playing a Necro team of doom, a Lizard team (and I've never defeated lizards!) and THEN I get to play a Dwarf team. I very much doubt I'll make the semi-finals.

[HaemishM]

If I'm not mistaken, unless I really put the boot in on the Vampires, I will lose out in an tiebreaker with avaia on TD difference.

Considering you are two back in TD difference and you need a win and a loss by me...

Not really.   

For some damn reason, I was thinking we were tied on points as of Game Day 6. I am in fact, an idiot and quite wrong.

[avaia]

Bring on the dwarves! 

[Ingmar]

We will be reenacting the Wildhammer Wedding, in Blood Bowl.

[Comstar]

So it looks like it's going to be Amazons vs Amazons for my quarter-final. Falconeer has more guard and slightly more bench, but I have stat increases and he's got stat decreases. Despite both teams having the same positional's, the development is quite different for both. I have tackle.

The  only other game I've played with this team vs Amazons was vs ezrast and it ended in a draw. I predict it's going to go into overtime.

[Ingmar]

I think you're playing Llyse, not Falc - T2000 #2 vs. Battletech #3.

[Comstar]

That's a lot less favourable to me. He has twice as much guard and twice as much tackle as I do. 95% of this team had block/Wrestle, along with half the team having blodge, which even's up my blodge but more players without block.

We have the same amount of St 4 players, but he has the speed advantage with his 2 highly skilled werewolves, but the rest of his team is a lot slower.  He has a niggling injury, I have a -1MV blitzer.

We've played each other 3 three times - a Win, a Loss and a Draw. The game may well also go into overtime.

[Ingmar]

I'm not sure it is mathematically possible to have twice as much guard as you. 

[Llyse]

I think you're playing Llyse, not Falc - T2000 #2 vs. Battletech #3.

I'm guessing this is because you've got the Head to Head Ingmar vs Comstar?

Yeah, the playoffs are going to be rough no matter who you get.. Both Comstar and Ingmar are going to be tough but I'd rather the softer, sweeter zons than a Deathroller 

[Ingmar]

We could still meet in round 2. 

[AndyDavo]

Carnifix's Lizards TV 1640 vs Avaia's Nurgle Tv 1530

Catfud's Necro TV1980 Vs Igmars Dwarves TV 2030

[lamaros]

Tie breakers in game are not correct in all cases.

They are in ours though, as you have me on TD difference as we drew our match.

[AndyDavo]

yea i was just about to do a full match up but it takes fuckin ages and i see a few games are not played. I have been rather lucky with my games this season, being able to rack up an impressive TD differencial. I see we are on opposite sides of the draw, we may meet in the final?

[Ingmar]

You have the seeding for Battletech wrong, Andy, it is:

1: Ingmar
2: Carnifex
3: Comstar
4: Sjofn

The in-game standings don't reflect the fact that we made head-to-head the first tiebreaker.

[Llyse]

We could still meet in round 2. 

Heh, and here I was thinking that Carnifex had topped Battletech.

At least I won't be giving Morg away in inducements to all my opponents! 

[Ingmar]

I could totally lose to Avaia (and Morg) in which case you still would be. 

[Teleku]

So is Twilight Hammers final division ranking decided yet?  Until Straz/Ulyssyes/Eld can all play their matches, the final order of Stormbringer has yet to be decided.  I was 1st place walking into the final day, but got a giant square kick to the nuts by nuffle to remind to stay humble.  Depending on how those other matches play out, I'll either come in 2nd or 3rd place in the division, so I'm curious to see who I'm up against.

[Ingmar]

T2000 is:

1: Ruvaldt
2: Llyse
3: Drogg
4: Bann

I believe.

[lamaros]

Battletech:

1: Ingmar
2: Carnifex
3: Comstar
4: Sjofn

Cthulhu:

1: Andy
2: Lamaros
3: Falc
4: Avaia

Twilight:

1: Ruvaldt
2: Llyse
3: Drogg
4: Bann

Stormbringer:

1: Strazos (Straz wins) or Ice Cream (Straz doesn't win)
2: Ice Cream (Strazos wins) or Teleku (Straz doesn't win)
3: Teleku (Strazos wins) or Strazos (Straz draws) or Ulysses (Ulysses wins)
4: Ulysses (Strazos draws, Ramas doen't win) or Strazos (Ulysses wins) or Ramas (Ramas wins, Ulysses doesn't win) or Krummi (Ulysses loses, Ramas loses)

TLDR: Ulysses needs at least as draw otherwise Krummi takes him on head to head or Ramas could go past him. Ramas needs a draw and Ulysses lose, or a win and Ulysses draw. Krummi needs both Ramas and Ulysses to lose.

So the matchups are:

UPPERSIDE

Ingmar v Avaia
Llyse v Comstar
Lamaros v Teleku/Strazos/Ulysses
Straz/Ice Cream v Bann

LOWERSIDE

Andy v Ulysses/Strazos/Ramas/Krummi
Ice Cream/Teleku v Drogg
Carnifex v Falc
Ruvaldt v Sjofn

[Ingmar]

Do we know if the failoffs are the exact same division matchups just using 5-8 instead?

[lamaros]

I think so Ingmar.

I'm hoping for:

UPPERSIDE

Ingmar v Avaia (couple of dead Dwarves)
Llyse v Comstar
Lamaros v Ulysses
Ice Cream v Bann (many dead elves)

LOWERSIDE

Andy v Strazos (dead elves)
Teleku v Drogg (dead elves and skinks)
Carnifex v Falc (dead skinks)
Ruvaldt v Sjofn (dead CWs)

THEN:

Ingmar v Llyse (Dead wolves)
Lamaros v Ice Cream
Strazos v Drogg (dead skinks)
Carnifex v Ruvaldt (bruised Lizards)

AND:

Lamaros v Ingmar (haha, dwarf speed)
Drogg v Carnifex

FINALLY:

Lamaros v Carnifex (I hope you brought break tackle)

Of course Straz will probably draw and I'll end up playing him first round and get smashed into the turf, no doubt.

[Sjofn]

I think so Ingmar.

I'm hoping for:


Ruvaldt v Sjofn (dead CWs)

Because I'm terrifying, right? That's why you're hoping I lose after taking out some CWs, right? 

[Llyse]

I'm thinking this is more Lamaros' dream run to the final rather than anything resembling a realistic prediction.

These are my picks for the semifinalists.

Ingmar/Me 
Lamaros

Andy
Ruvaldt

Bring on the PAIN TRAIN 

[lamaros]

I think so Ingmar.

I'm hoping for:


Ruvaldt v Sjofn (dead CWs)

Because I'm terrifying, right? That's why you're hoping I lose after taking out some CWs, right?  

Actually yeah. You both hit me just as hard, claw means nothing to me. But Piling On and block everywhere and frenzy and more speed? I'll take Chaos, thanks.

[avaia]

I could totally lose to Avaia (and Morg) in which case you still would be. 

That's an odd way to spell Borak.

[Sjofn]

I think so Ingmar.

I'm hoping for:


Ruvaldt v Sjofn (dead CWs)

Because I'm terrifying, right? That's why you're hoping I lose after taking out some CWs, right?  

Actually yeah. You both hit me just as hard, claw means nothing to me. But Piling On and block everywhere and frenzy and more speed? I'll take Chaos, thanks.

Oh now, only one guy even has piling on! I'm starting to rack up the mighty blow, though, at long last.

Stupid shitty werewolf needs to start killing some people so he at least gets block though. ><

[lamaros]

Oh now, only one guy even has piling on! I'm starting to rack up the mighty blow, though, at long last.

The MV of his first 11 is 60, and two don't have block.

The MV of your first 11 is 68, and every player bar one has block. You also have frenzy on four players, jump up on your piling on, one more player with MB, and one more with tackle. You have dodge on MV7 players, not MV4 and 5. You're also lower TV.

On paper you're a far worse side to play against. For Skaven anyhow, probably most Elves too.

[Ingmar]

MV is so overrated. 

[lamaros]

MV is so overrated. 

I think MV is my favourite thing in a team. I really enjoy playing my Lizardman team where most of the Saurus' have break tackle (and three have dodge). It's so much fun being able to move most of your team and completely change the game board each turn. (Also Skink BS is nearly as much fun as GR BS).

[Sjofn]

Oh now, only one guy even has piling on! I'm starting to rack up the mighty blow, though, at long last.

The MV of his first 11 is 60, and two don't have block.

The MV of your first 11 is 68, and every player bar one has block. You also have frenzy on four players, jump up on your piling on, one more player with MB, and one more with tackle. You have dodge on MV7 players, not MV4 and 5. You're also lower TV.

On paper you're a far worse side to play against. For Skaven anyhow, probably most Elves too.

Yeah, neither elf team in my division liked playing me, I don't think.  

[Modern Angel]

So what's the priority that we're using to determine tiebreakers?

[Ingmar]

Head to head > TD differential > something that will probably never come up that I forget