NFL 2011

[Paelos]

One of the few times I enjoy watching the Eagles win. Especially when you get a Vince Young post-game interview!

[K9]

Lets see, Giants over the Eagles.  Hey Philly fans enjoy the Vince Young Mello Yello Meltdown Hello Kitty Hissyfits!

tee hee hee hee

9-7 can win this division and the Eagles can get there.  I don't think 10-6 is remotely possible from 4-6 today.  I won't even hope for that.

Week 12: New England - it would take a miracle
Week 13: @ Seattle - certainly winnable
Week 14: @ Miami - this week was a fluke
Week 15: New Jersey Jets - home field makes this a 70/30 chance to win
Week 16: @ Dallas
Week 17: Washington

Winning the last two weeks would mean any tie with Dallas on win/loss would favor the Eagles.

Now compare that to the Giants schedule.

@ Saints, lose 6-5
Green Bay, lose 6-6
@ Dallas, lose 6-7
Washington, win 7-7
Jets, win 8-7
Dallas, lose 8-8

And lastly Dallas, who looks like a real contender due to schedule

Miami, win 7-4
@ Arizona, lose 7-5
Giants, win 8-5
@ Tampa, win 9-5
Eagles, lose 9-6
@ Giants, lose 9-7

Sorry for all that.  I wanted to lay it out for myself anyway.  That is the dream, 5% scenario!

I'd say it's currently 0% since you have the Giants and the Cowboys losing to each other simultaneously in the final week.

[HaemishM]

I didn't get to watch much more than the Packers game and the end of the Giants/Eagles debacle, but here's my weekly recap.

Buffalo Bills... goddamnit. What the fuck is with teams making Miami look competent? Is Matt Moore really that much better of a QB than Chad Henne? (Answer? Likely yes.) What the fuck happened to the Bills? Losing Fred Jackson must have hurt but they haven't looked remotely like a good team for 4 weeks. New England is busily trying to make that a 1 or 2 team division and the Jets are helping them.

That Packers game was a good one, but yeah, I had no real worries that they would pull it out. Their defense gives up way too many points, which is a worry for the playoffs. Turnovers against mediocre/bad teams are something you can rely on. Against a San Fran or New Orleans? Maybe not, although I think they match up well against New Orleans. San Fran is really the team to sweat in the NFC because they can control the ball, aren't making many mistakes or turnovers and their defense is solid. I could easily see this being the NFC Championship matchup.

LOLGIANTSELIFACE! Seriously, why can't the Giants be consistent? You cannot lose against Vince Fucking Young and expect to be considered a good team. It's just not done. No one wants to win this division. We can be reasonably assured the Redskins won't win it, and the Eagles probably won't either, but now the Cowboys are tied for first. They could actually win the division because of a soft schedule and the fact that the Giants seem incapable of being the same team week in and week out.

There's really only 5 teams in the wild card mix in the NFC - Cowboys, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta and the Giants in that order of tie breakers. Either the Giants or the Cowboys will be the division winner, and the other will be sitting at home. Chicago just lost Cutler for the rest of the regular season so you can expect a steady diet of Matt Forte and not much else. Good thing their last 6 games are against Oakland, KC and Denver, Seattle, Green Bay and Minnesota - all but 1 of those you'd consider winnable and the other is a toss up because they play the Packers well. Detroit gets screwed in their scheduling as they get Green Bay twice AND New Orleans, and they are doing it without a running game until Best gets back. Atlanta could very well knock one of those guys out of the wild card as their schedule is almost as easy as the Bears and their QB is still around.

Fuck the Chargers, they are done. I think they have handed the division over to the Raiders, who aren't good enough to go far in the playoffs but are better than Denver, San Diego and KC. I can't believe Tim Tebow is going to be in a meaningful game in December. The rest of the AFC playoff pictures is a mess. Baltimore is currently the #1 seed thanks to beating Pittsburgh and Cincy, but shit, they aren't consistent enough. Thankfully, no one else in the AFC is either. The Titans are trying hard to lose any chance at the South. If New England shits the bed tonight, that would make 5 teams at 5-5, one game out of the wild card spots. It's now obvious after back to back losses to the Steelers and the Ravens that the Bengals aren't as bad as I thought, but they aren't more than a wild card team at best... this year. Provided Mike Brown doesn't fuck them (HAH), they could be good next year with a good draft. And goddamn DENVER has the tie breaks over all the other 5-5 teams because of their shittastic division.

[shiznitz]

I'd say it's currently 0% since you have the Giants and the Cowboys losing to each other simultaneously in the final week.

Hurggh.  I thought I checked for just such a mistake.  Still, that would make the Giants 9-7 and the Eagles would win under my scenario for having a better division record.  I think, anyway.

[ghost]

I'd say it's currently 0% since you have the Giants and the Cowboys losing to each other simultaneously in the final week.

The way they're playing this year I think that's entirely likely.

[Paelos]

Atlanta's schedule is sneaky because they are terrible on the road.

Atlanta's 6-4 and basically has to go 10-6 minimum because they lost to Chicago.

Two games are against MIN and JAX at home, that brings them to 8-4. Two games are against playoff teams on the road that they certainly lose NO and HOU, and that brings them to 8-6.

To me, it comes down to if they can beat TB at home and Carolina on the road. I'm not sure on either.

[ghost]

Surely to fucking god they can win those two games. 

[murdoc]

Man, the Bucs hung around just enough for me to have a sliver of hope. For a guy that really became a huge Buc fan based on the defense they fielded during the late 1990s/early 2000s, being 31st in the league is tough to swallow.

That 54yd run by Blount was a beauty.

[ghost]

Yeah, current Tampa is nothing like Tampa of old.  Or I guess I should say that they are more like Tampa of old. 

[Nevermore]

At least that Tampa of old had Lee Roy Selmon.

[ghost]

Motherfucker, I will kill you. 

[Paelos]

Surely to fucking god they can win those two games. 

They lost to Tampa already. They barely made it out of Seattle alive. They can lose to any team on the road.

Tampa in the Dome? They SHOULD win. However, last year they only won by 6. They year before that they only won by a FG. Year before that, win by a FG. The game is just ridiculously close even though it has no business being close. So yeah, Atlanta has won those close matches, but at some point if they keep letting teams hang around they are going to pay for it.

[ghost]

Well, if they can't beat Carolina on the road they don't belong in the playoffs.  It seems as if Ryan is having a disappointing year, but I haven't been paying that much attention.  What seems to be the issue?

[Paelos]

Well, if they can't beat Carolina on the road they don't belong in the playoffs.  It seems as if Ryan is having a disappointing year, but I haven't been paying that much attention.  What seems to be the issue?

The offensive line has been terrible. They are 10th in giving up the most QB hits. As a result, Ryan is low on time, and can't really get set for the deep threat. That's sort of a problem when you drafted Julio Jones to be your explosive guy, and he's neutralized. And in the fact that Turner is much more effective in grinding yards on the ground, and you get more of a move away from the passing game.

[HaemishM]

The Falcons offense isn't sure who it wants to be. They got Julio Jones to have a deep threat, so they started passing more in the early games and it didn't work. They can't decide whether to be a run first or pass to run team. And their defense is all kinds of WTFBBQ terrible. They've gotten better in recent weeks, but still bad.

[ghost]

I guess the Pats are back to being badass.

[01101010]

I guess the Pats are back to being badass.

I would not get too ahead on them... this was KC after all.

[Bungee]

I guess the Pats are back to being badass.

I would not get too ahead on them... this was KC after all.

Look at their previous schedule and compare it to what they have left now. They'll sit fine and dandy at top of their division with the press all over them and their "finally on track" D with no one mentioning how hard they failed facing serious competition.

[HaemishM]

Yeah, it was Kansas City. I'd say the toughest teams the Pats have faced have been Pittsburgh, the Raiders, Giants, Cowboys and the Jets and all but the Steelers on that list are really inconsistent teams. They'll make the playoffs easily with their remaining schedule. Their toughest games are against Philly and Denver, both teams that can be world-beaters or complete chumps depending on the week. The only other game that looks even moderately tough is the Redskins game and only because it's in Washington. I expect they'll finish 11-5 and be a game or two ahead of the Jets for the division title.

Looking at the AFC playoff contenders remaining schedules, I see Denver going 4-2 (that's really sad - their schedule is marshmallow over a fire soft) for a 9-7 season. Cincy goes 3-3 to also go 9-7. Tennessee goes 4-2 for a 9-7 and the Jets CAN go 5-1 to end up 10-6 (or they could go 3-3 and be out of it completely). That last wild card spot is going down to the last day.

[ghost]

Looks like Dallas has an easy road to the playoffs.  They could easily finish 11-5. 

[HaemishM]

Yeah, there's a good chance they could win the division and the Giants miss the playoffs completely just based on how different their schedules are. Of course, I think either one gets knocked out of the playoffs by the second round anyway.

[ghost]

I don't know.  The Cowboys have the talent to win the whole thing if they can pull their shit together.  And finishing 11-5 would qualify as pulling their shit together.  Romo will always have the ability to pull off some completely shitty stuff, however, but this may be their year. 

[Nevermore]

I guess the Pats are back to being badass.

I would not get too ahead on them... this was KC after all.

Look at their previous schedule and compare it to what they have left now. They'll sit fine and dandy at top of their division with the press all over them and their "finally on track" D with no one mentioning how hard they failed facing serious competition.

It'll just make the New England tears from their first round exit all the more sweet.

[ghost]

You heard it here first.  Dallas versus New England Superbowl with New England winning it all.   

[HaemishM]

I think it's entirely possible that Dallas's talent level has been exaggerated, based purely on results. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are beasts. Demarcus Ware is really good. The rest? I don't think they've consistently shown they are as good as their press clippings.

[ghost]

Well, I certainly wouldn't gamble based on my predictions.  My preseason winner was the Eagles, and we all see how that has worked out.

[Paelos]

I think it's entirely possible that Dallas's talent level has been exaggerated, based purely on results. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are beasts. Demarcus Ware is really good. The rest? I don't think they've consistently shown they are as good as their press clippings.

Uh Demarco Murray?

[HaemishM]

Too few outings to really judge. Beginning of the season, I'd have put Felix Jones in the top 10 running backs. Now? Not so much. The Cowboys have lately shown a remarkable propensity to debut a running to much acclaim only to see him land on the shitpile in 2 years (see Marion Barber).

[shiznitz]

ESPN has a nice playoff matrix you can play with.  You can predict each game for the rest of the season if you want.

The tortured assumptions I had to make for the Eagles to win the division puts those odds somewhere in the vicinity of me winning Powerball.  They need a three way 9-7 tie and only 1 more non-division loss.

[HaemishM]

I have a solution for the Bears' QB woes. 

That would be some funny shit.

[Cyrrex]

It would be hilarious.  But it might also make sense!  Maybe it's just me, but I don't think Kyle Orton is a terrible QB.

[Trippy]

There's too many teams that can pick him up before the Bears can.

[Rasix]

So they'd rather have Brady Quinn as a backup for a primarily running QB?  Smart.  Tebow runs the same risk as Vick does.  Guy is going to take some hits.

[Trippy]

Orton was expensive to keep around and not play.

[Ingmar]

I'm not sure they actually save anything though, I could swear the thing I read said his contract was guaranteed?