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Author Topic: Regular Season Predictions  (Read 13281 times)
lamaros
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Reply #35 on: February 06, 2011, 08:45:57 PM

Back to normal tipping this week. The hopeful tipping was a disaster.

Battletech

Merely a Fleshwound over Undread Fiesta - Nix has retired from the league unfortunately.
Hippies over 7 Deadly - Teleku plays a reckless game and is down a few players for this one. I am really interested to see how it goes but I think Tele has the edge with his skilled players.
Beardstorm! over Negative Capability - Ice is due to run out of luck, and the bearded ones are gathering momentum. I would prefer to see a draw, but I think Ingmar will take it. - A Draw! Yes!

Cthulhu

This group is the most exciting, with two early favourites in Comstar and Andy feeling some heat from Iain and proudft. Andy should walk home, but Iain and proudft have their future in their own hands. If Iain pulls out the win then last years finalist will really be feeling the heat. He might have to beat AndyDavo on the final day of the season to secure his place - and he has the take on the Beetles in round 6 too!

North by Northwest lose to Catfighters - Comstar to bounce back.
Beetles over Spleen Flay Hackers - Beetles to take the win and keep the top 4 the most open in the league. A huge game and my match of the round.
Gut Spillers draw with Peace Dogs - Unfortunately I don't think the elves have it in them this season, and the Undead aren't going so well across the leagues either. A score draw. 3 - 1 to the Gut Spillers.
Wildcards over Bashtards - AndyDavo will win again.

Stormbringer

Snoosnoo and Ramas probably have the edge, but Megrim is coming home strong. Second place might be fought between the Vampires and the Norse on the final day of the season.

Burninluv lose to Snoosnoo - Snoosnoo are nearly as clear favourites as Llyse to win their group and make the finals. I don't think they'll drop this one. Burninluv spring the upset!
Scarlet and Gray over Offsidhes - Hoax to snatch another win and give himself as outside chance to leave the group.
Helmets lose to Silver Horde - Silver Horde to keep the pressure on Morsel for that second place.
Wrestlers lose to Morsel - Megrim has go himself going and a horde of fat idiots isn't going to be able to stop him.

Twilight 2000

This group is still wide open, but this week will be decisive. Strazos will almost book his ticket with a win this week, as will Falc. Loses for either of them will be a disaster however, as they come face to face the week after. Strongman will upset the applecart with another win.

Strongman over Bell Jar - Falc to lose and start sweating on the finals. Upset!
Dandies over Swedgins - Dandies to bounce back and keep hope alive.
Diplomatic Immunity over Rat Country - The Rats won't be tough enough to stay on the pitch against Straz's leveled warriors.
Necco Waivers over Homeopathy - Aviva to take the win, but leaving his run for the finals too late.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2011, 02:45:48 AM by lamaros »
Falconeer
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Reply #36 on: February 07, 2011, 03:28:34 AM

Everyone keeps predicting my demise. It has been quite mellow and pleasant so far to disappoint.

Llyse
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Reply #37 on: February 07, 2011, 06:43:42 AM

Battletech

Wolfs > Rats - Nuff' said.
Hippies over 7 Deadly - Teleku is seriously down on players but never on pluck
Beardstorm! over Negative Capability - Ingmar is going to grind it out of Ice after stopping Tele

Cthulhu


Catfighters over North by Northwest - Please prove me wrong Xuri!
Spleen Flay Hackers over Proudft's Beetles - Stab the THROW-RA!
Peace Dogs over Gut Spillers - First win for Haemish!
Wildcards over Bashtards - Andy has slept through more games than I've played

Stormbringer

Snoosnoo over Burninluv - I like Lizards but he has a tacklin' freight train...
Scarlet and Gray over Offsidhes - Hoax to bounce back after losing to Megrim
Silver Horde over Helmets - Poor Gruntle and his nifty helmet ain't gonna do squat
Morsel over Wrestlers - Reborne to leave burning dog shit on Megrim's doorstep

Twilight 2000

Bell Jar over Strongman - Krummi is doing great but Falc is the League Commissioner...
Dandies over Swedgins - Dandies are doing great for a Human team in bash land
Rat Country over Diplomatic Immunity - Ruvaldt's luck has to turn... eventually...
Necco Waivers over Homeopathy - SirT ain't winning over Whitemane

I'm 8-8 after Week 3 picks...
HaemishM
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Reply #38 on: February 07, 2011, 08:09:31 AM

Peace Dogs over Gut Spillers - First win for Haemish!

I hope you're right. I'd be happy to get a goddamn touchdown at this point.

Cadaverine
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Reply #39 on: February 07, 2011, 05:49:42 PM

Merely a Fleshwound over Undread Fiesta - Nix has retired from the league unfortunately.

I think you're sorely underestimating my ability to lose a match.

Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.
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Reply #40 on: February 13, 2011, 07:37:19 AM

I missed posting predictions for the current game day and by the time I could get around to it, a bunch of games had already been played. Curse you keeners for leaping in as soon as the day ticks over!

Anyway, with only a couple of games left for Day 5, here are my Day 6 predictions. I'm still terrible at this game predicting results so don't take it personally if I call a game against you, my batting average is still under 50%.

Battletech

Undread vs Beardstorm. Win for the stunties by default due to Nix retiring from the league.
Negative Capability vs Alive Not Dead. Necromantic face off between the two teams leading their division. Electric game and a must-win for both coaches. I predict points for AnD however. - 1-1 Draw
Merely a Fleshwound vs Hazardous Hippies. Evenly matched teams and could go both ways. I think that the Fleshwounds will take their first win of the league. - Welp, 6-1 stuffing by the Hippies.
Rape of Skabine vs 7 Deadly. Two coaches with erratic form and closely matched teams. I think the lizards will win this one though. - 1-1 Draw.

Cthulhu

North by Northwest vs Bashtards. Both coaches have identical records but Xuri has the better team. Points to the Norse in what should be one of the most violent games of the day. -  Bashtards win narrowly
Peace Dogs vs Wishmasters Wildcards. AndyDavo only has six fit players for this but I expect him to romp home to a 3-0 victory regardless. - Almost got the score right, 3-1 to the Dark Elves.
Spleen Flay Hackers vs Gut Spillers. My team overpowers the Undead by a large margin and I expect this will be enough to let me cruise to a comfortable win. 2-0 to the Dark Elves. - 2-1 but the points went to me as predicted.
F13 Cafighters vs Burrowing Beetles. Huge game. Both teams have to win if they want to remain in contention. Comstar is the favourite going in and will likely take the points but I predict that the Khemrians will do a lot of damage. - Correct 3-0 to the Amazons although with less violence than expected.
Stormbringer

Silver Horde vs Team Snoosnoo. Top of the table rumble in a very close division. Both teams need the win to keep a playoff spot in sight. I predict the Norse will upset the order and take the win. - Correct, 1-0 to the Horde.
Offsidhes vs Morsel. Offsidhes are out of the playoffs but can still damage Morsel's chances of a spot. Morsel needs the win and I expect that he will get one although 700 gold of inducements will sting. - Correct! 3-0 to Morsel
Hunqua Hunqua Burninluv vs Reborne's Wrestlers. Lizards to win in a gorefest of a game. - 3-0 to the Lizards!
Scarlet and Grey vs Nifty Helmets. Two closely matched teams and coaches but I think the Orcs will have the edge here. - Correct, 2-0 to S&G.

Twilight 2000

Diplomatic Immunity vs The Bell Jar. Game of the day for me. Falc's unbroken record was smashed recently and Strazos knows his way around a pitch. A win for the Norse keeps them in contention while a win for the girls guarantees them a spot. Win for the Norse. - Correct, 1-0 to Strazos.
Necco Waivers vs The Dandies. Both teams are too far down to make a playoff run, both have identical records but the Undead have the better team. Win for the Waivers. - 1-1 draw
Harbingers vs Strongman. Uneven matchup between the top and bottom team. Krummi to book his playoff ticket with a convincing win over the Nurgle team. - Strongman wins but with only one TD.
Rat Country vs Undeadwood Swedgins. Scramble at the drain end of the table between two closely matched teams. I think the Skaven will take it though. - Correct! 2-1 to the Rats.

Games to watch:
Now we are getting close to the playoffs, the pressure is mounting and the potential finalists are taking shape. The following games will be crucial for the playoff chances of their coaches.
Proudft vs Comstar. Proudft has only a very slim chance of making the playoffs but he can certainly cripple Comstar's ambitions. Comstar needs to win and he needs to keep his team alive against one of the bashiest teams in the division in preparation for his crunch match on day 7 with AndyDavo. If Comstar loses or draws he is effectively out of the running. Proudft can still go through but he needs to beat Comstar and he needs the stars to align in various unlikely ways in other games too.

Falc vs Strazos. Strazos needs the win more than Falc does, especially as Falc is practically guaranteed three more points on day 7. Krummi is almost certain to confirm his place in Day 6 with an unassailable 16 points, Strazos needs 6 points from two games to book the second spot while Falc needs only 4.

Brocktoon vs Ramas. The winner of this game will draw out a valuable lead on the division. With Megrim and Drogg breathing down their necks and likely to collect three points apiece as well, neither team can afford to drop any points at this stage.

Edit: Accuracy: 10/15 (not counting the Nix/Ingmar game)
« Last Edit: February 25, 2011, 01:58:16 AM by IainC »

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Strazos
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Reply #41 on: February 13, 2011, 08:14:59 AM

I see an error in them thar positions, as I haven't played my Day 5 game yet... Oh ho ho ho. Reallllly?

Fear the Backstab!
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Ruvaldt
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Reply #42 on: February 13, 2011, 08:28:18 AM

Yep, Strazos and I are having our showdown tonight.  I may be out of playoff contention, but I can still be a spoiler.   DRILLING AND MANLINESS

"For a long time now I have tried simply to write the best I can. Sometimes I have good luck and write better than I can." - Ernest Hemingway
lamaros
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Reply #43 on: February 14, 2011, 09:17:43 PM

Battletech

Undread lose to Beardstorm.
Negative Capability lose to Alive Not Dead. Llyse has the skill advantage. Only a Wizard can help bridge the gap, but I can't see it happening. Ice to lose his first game.
Merely a Fleshwound lose to Hazardous Hippies. Teleku has gone against me with every prediction I think, but I'm going for him again here.

Cthulhu

North by Northwest defeats Bashtards.
Peace Dogs lose to Wishmasters Wildcards..
Spleen Flay Hackers defeats Gut Spillers. Can't see IainC dropping the ball after coming this far.
F13 Cafighters defeats Burrowing Beetles. Comstar will win easily. 3-0

Stormbringer

Silver Horde lose to Team Snoosnoo. Snoosnoo bounces back.
Offsidhes lose to Morsel. Vampires will take this one.
Hunqua Hunqua Burninluv defeats Reborne's Wrestlers. Ogres are too hard a team to win with, even for Reborne.
Scarlet and Grey defeats Nifty Helmets. Unleveled chaos doesn't have enough to get past the orcs.

Twilight 2000

Diplomatic Immunity lose to The Bell Jar. Falc has the advantage at high TV I feel.
Necco Waivers defeats The Dandies. Aviva to get some wins in, but it's too late.
Harbingers lose to Strongman. Nurgle has struggled and facing the top team isn't going to build confidence.
Rat Country defeats Undeadwood Swedgins.

Key Matches

Ice vs Llyse. This match will define the chances of the contenders for second place. Everyone wants Ice to lose apart from himself.

Proudft vs Comstar. Comstar needs to win this one, if he doesn't it's all over bar the shouting.

Brocktoon vs Ramas. Pressure match! Amazingly close group still.

Falc vs Strazos. Neither can afford to lose, though strazos even less so. Falc can probably play for the draw and TD difference, but will he?
« Last Edit: February 20, 2011, 06:37:41 PM by lamaros »
Reborne
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Reply #44 on: February 16, 2011, 01:02:45 PM

Ogres are too hard a team to win with, even for Reborne.

Anyone could think you're implying that I'm a good coach  why so serious?

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avaia
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Reply #45 on: February 16, 2011, 01:13:06 PM

Ogres are too hard a team to win with, even for Reborne.

Anyone could think you're implying that I'm a good coach  why so serious?

I'm amazed you only have one dead snot thusfar!
Modern Angel
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Reply #46 on: February 16, 2011, 02:53:52 PM

I fucking love playing with my ogres. Reborne's got precisely the right attitude toward playing the game with one of the joke teams, too.
Kail
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Reply #47 on: February 16, 2011, 03:07:37 PM

I fucking love playing with my ogres. Reborne's got precisely the right attitude toward playing the game with one of the joke teams, too.

Amen to that, I wish I'd gone through with my Halfling team.  Pro Elf is just gimp enough that I can't really do much spectacularly well, but not so gimp that I don't have a chance.  And my casualty rates would probably be about the same, too YOU GIBBERING PSYCHOPATHS Mob
IainC
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Reply #48 on: February 20, 2011, 06:31:04 AM

Day Seven Prediction time as there are only two games in Day 6 left to go:

With the playoffs looming, every score is critical for those with cup aspirations. Some teams are out of the running but can still shatter the dreams of their opponent and some matches will be head-to-head affairs where the loser gives up their playoff berth. Only three teams go into the final day with unbeaten records, will they keep that unblemished score into the playoffs?

Teams in yellow are in playoff contention.

Battletech
Beardstorm v Rape of Skabine - Both teams can go through with a win although they need Negative Capability to lose. Beardstorm to win. - Wrong, 3-2 to the Skaven
Merely a Fleshwound vs 7 Deadly - Close game but points for the Lizards - Wrong 2-1 to the Undead
Negative Capability vs Hazardous Hippies - A win guarantees ICE a spot, a draw will do if Ingmar loses. I predict an upset and that the Hippies will win. - Correct 4-1 to the Elves
Undread Fiesta vs Alive Not Dead - With a guaranteed 3 points AnD will go top of their division on the final day.

Cthulhu
Peace Dogs vs North by Northwest - bottom of the table skirmish, Xuri to win convincingly. - Wrong, Elves win 2-0
Bashtards vs Spleen Flay Hackers - I just need a draw to guarantee a playoff spot, a loss requires that Comstar also loses. Still I feel confident and expect to take 3 points from this game. - Wrong 1-0 to the Orcs. Fuck this game.
Wishmasters WIldcards vs F13 Catfighters - Easily the game of the day. Whoever wins gets a playoff spot. A draw sees both teams through if I lose to Sky. Comstar cannot lose if he wants to go further. Coinflip match but I'm rooting for Comstar here.
Gut Spillers vs Burrowing Beetles - Khemri vs Undead in bashy game. I think the Gut Spillers will take the points. - Wrong 2-0 to the Beetles

Stormbringer
Snoosnoo vs Scarlet and Grey - Nothing less than a win will keep either coaches' playoff dreams alive. SnooSnoo to win in an all Orc grudgematch. - Wrong 1-1
Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv vs Nifty Helmets - The Lizards have to win if they want a playoff spot and I don't expect the Chaos team to stand in their way. - Correct. 4-0 thrashing by HHBl
Offsidhes vs Reborne's Wrestlers - The only game of the day in this division that has no bearing on the playoffs. Elves to dance around the Ogres for a comfortable win.
Silver Horde vs Morsel - Both teams will be looking to confirm their playoff berth. Morsel's Vampires are far superior despite a worse win record and I predict that they will book their place today.

Twilight 2000
Bell Jar vs Harbingers of Homeopathy - Falc will have little problem taking away three points from Sir T's Nurgle team. He'll still need to rely on Strazos losing to Celer though if he wants a playoff spot. - Wrong, 1-1
Necco Waivers vs Rat Country - Closely matched coaches but the Undead have the better team and that will give them the win.
Diplomatic Immunity vs Undeadwood Swedgins - A win or a draw sees Strazos in the playoffs. He's likely to put that beyond doubt with 3 easy points from this game. - Correct, 1-0 to the Norse
Dandies vs Strongman - Krummi is through no matter the result of this match. Expect a very cautious game to keep players as uninjured as possible for the playoffs. Slow burning win for the Orcs. - Wrong 1-1

Playoff Analysis:

Battletech: - A very close division. Four teams are mathematically in with a shot still. Alive Not Dead are the only team with a confirmed place and the second is open. Negative Capability can put it out of reach of the other two with a win over the Hippies, if they draw that match then Ingmar can snatch the second spot with a victory over Lamaros and Lamaros can take the other spot by beating Ingmar if Negative Capability lose.
Game to watch: Lamaros vs Ingmar.

Cthulhu: - Three way sprint for the playoffs. Andy Davo needs a draw to confirm his spot as do I. If I lose to Sky then Comstar just needs a draw to go through. Otherwise the winner of the AndyDavo/Comstar match gets the second spot.
Game to watch: AndyDavo vs Comstar.

Stormbringer: - Theoretically five teams are still in contention. Morsel and Silver Horde have 12 points each, Scarlet and Grey and HHBl are on 11 a piece with SnooSnoo right on their tails at 10. SnooSnoo meet S&G, Morsel meets Silver Horde and Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv have what should be a soft game vs the Nifty Helmets. The winner of the Morsel vs Silver Horde match has a playoff spot guaranteed, if the match is a draw then both teams could be out depending on how the other matches go.
SnooSnoo will go through only if they beat Scarlet and Grey, HHBl lose or draw with the Nifty Helmets and if the Morsel vs Silver Horde game doesn't end in a draw. Technically they can still go through if those teams draw but they'd need to beat S&G by more than 3 TDs to break the tie with Silver Horde.
Scarlet and Grey are through if they win and HHBl lose or if both teams win without the Lizards scoring two more TDs than the Orcs do.
Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv are through if they win and Scarlet and Grey either lose or draw with SnooSnoo or if they win and the Morsel/Silver Horde game ends in a draw.
Phew!
Games to watch: SnooSnoo vs Silver and Grey, Morsel vs Silver Horde

Twilight 2000: -  The only division so far that has the playoff spots locked in already. Both Strazos and Krummi will be looking to protect their teams from damage as much as possible and I expect that Celer and Bann will try not to oblige.
Edit: Falc can still win if he beats SirT (likely) and if Strazos loses to Celer (not likely).
Game to watch: Avaia vs JRuvaldt

Edit: My predictions are back to being terrible. 3/11 so far.

Teams that are definitely through:

Battletech
Alive Not Dead
Rape of Skabine

Cthulhu
Wishmaster's Wildcards

Stormbringer
Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv

Twilight 2000
Diplomatic Immunity
Strongman
« Last Edit: February 28, 2011, 02:42:59 PM by IainC »

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Falconeer
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Reply #49 on: February 20, 2011, 07:11:26 AM

Twilight 2000: -  The only division so far that has the playoff spots locked in already. Both Strazos and Krummi will be looking to protect their teams from damage as much as possible and I expect that Celer and Bann will try not to oblige.
Game to watch: Avaia vs JRuvaldt

It's not mathematically over. Strazos has to win or tie his match vs. Celer. Should he lose, he would (probably) be out.

Twilight 2000
Bell Jar vs Harbingers of Homeopathy - Falc will have little problem taking away three points from Sir T's Nurgle team. Sadly, even if Strazos loses, the tiebreak will go against Falc and he'll miss the playoffs.

Again, wrong. Should he lose, the tie breaker would be in my favour, no matter the score (assuming I can win with Sir T). He needs 1 point to advance. With zero, I should get ahead of him.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2011, 07:13:30 AM by Falconeer »

eldaec
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Reply #50 on: February 25, 2011, 12:07:39 AM

Adding a little more analysis for stormbringer, the match that interests me most is SnooSnoo v S&G, this is not the mirror match it appears. S&G play a very typical orc game, development is concentrated on their black orcs and blitzers, Hoax generally looks to concentrate his str4 where he can break the line quickly and bash straight through. Brocktoon's orcs on the other hand have almost no levels on their forwards (and are missing a black orc and troll for this match), they play a much wider game, using their well developed thrower to distribute the ball quickly as soon as an opening emerges - in short they play like bunch of elfs in drag. Result will likely depend on whether S&G can corrall SnooSnoo into a traditional orc brawl, or if SnooSnoo can exploit any space S&G leave in trying force the pileup.

Nifty v HHB is mostly interesting because both teams are now starting develop out of new team status. Unfortunately for Gruntle, HHB are simply much further along the path, but I don't really think Nifties' results give a fair reflection of their standard of play and now they are back to full strength I'm not expecting more than a 2-1 victory for HHB.

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