MLB 2011

[Ingmar]

Giants are on borrowed time already IMO. Losing Sandoval for 4-6 weeks is going to kill us.

[Sjofn]

I think Mike Bumgarner is hitting better than that. Let me look it up. Yeah he's batting .222. How does that feel Padres? A pitcher on a team that can't hit is hitting better than your entire pitiful lineup.

That made me laugh. 

I do want to give the Padres pitchers some hugs. They're trying so hard dammit! And for what! Clearly they should go out drinking with the Giants pitchers (who have had some issues lately but I'm pretty sure they'll all get over it except Sanchez, who I am pretty close to naming my Kerry Collins of the team).

I'm not supposed to say this, I don't think, but I think the Dodgers will finish ahead of the Giants unless the Giants get their shit together, like, yesterday.

[caladein]

You're really not, but it probably won't happen either way.  Once Ethier and Kemp come back down to earth (as in, not having BABIPs 100 points above their career marks), the Dodgers don't have a whole lot going.  They'll also have a tough time making moves late in the year, although that's sort of par for the course for them.

They'll get Casey Blake back in a couple months and Either and Kemp are still good hitters, but eh, I just don't see them making much of a run with their staff.

[Sjofn]

The Giants offense just makes me super fucking depressed, I suppose.

[HaemishM]

At least you didn't sign a first baseman to a 1-year contract for $10 million to be an RBI man knowing that he hit .196 last year. And oh yeah, he's hitting .159 for fuck's sake.

Really? You didn't want to sign Adam Dunn? Fuckers.

[Paelos]

On to round 2, the NL Central. This division sports St. Louis in the lead, the Reds in second at .500, and everyone else with a losing record. The only thing that's strange is that top to bottom is only separated by 4.5 games. That's pretty tight considering the division has six teams.

NL Central:

St. Louis - The Cardinals leading the central? Stop me when you've heard this story before. They usually lead at some point in the season. However, they haven't been able to close very well down the stretch over the last 5 years. Of course, that was back when the Cubs were good. I can't believe the computer didn't explode when I typed "Cubs" and "good" in the same sentence. So what do the Cards do well? For starters, they are #1 in the majors in average, OBP, RBIs, and runs. They also lead the NL in doubles, slugging, and getting hit by pitches. I mean, damn. Even when you're not hitting, you're leaning into pitches? The Cards really want it this year. Here's the scary part: their pitching is pretty good too. A 3.38 ERA with 3 shutouts is strong. These guys have no weaknesses, right? WRONG! Their closing sucks. They have 8 saves in 16 attempts. Ryan Franklin was lights out in 2010 and 2009. Not so in this year. He has 1 save in 5 attempts. That means LaRussa has uttered the words no fan wants to hear, "Closer by Committee." Somewhere, Grady Little just shit himself. Also, 24 errors Cardinals? Chicks stop digging the long ball when you play one off your hips in the 9th.

Cincinnati - They can't do it two years in a row can they? I mean outside of Votto and Arroyo, who can you name on this team? Maybe if you're hip, you know of Jay Bruce. Other than that, this is a team of role-players who can string together wins. The Reds are a hot and cold team. They put together a 5-0 run at the beginning of the season, then went 1-6 in the middle of the season when they played the Padres and the Pirates. Um, those teams are not tough. Certainly not 1-6 tough. So what are the Reds this year? They are a solid hitting team, 2nd to the Cards in the NL for runs and OBP. The are very patient at the plate drawing over 100 walks to 200 K's. They are extremely fast and will swipe bases on you at an alarming rate. What they are not is a good pitching squad. The 4.49 ERA is bad, their starters can't go the distance, and they give up way too many walks. The saving grace is that they phenomenal in the field. Overall, they have to shore up the pitching concerns to be a contender.

Pittsburgh - The Pirates hate their fans. In fact I'm pretty sure they hate Pittsburgh in general. Why? Because they are 4-8 at home and 10-7 on the road. Nobody in the majors has that much of a swing towards road games. This team goes on the road, takes 2/3 from the Cardinals and Reds. They also lost 3/4 to the Rockies, and 2/3 to the Giants at home. They aren't big into consistency. You can pretty much throw stats out the window because the Pirates will score 14 in one series, and score 5 in another. By the way, can you name any of the Pirates off the top of your head? If I asked you who their leading hitter was, who would you guess? You'd be wrong. Neil Walker, after only one full year in the majors, is leading the team. This is a young, young team who has some years to work out the kinks before they can get the ball rolling in the right direction. As a result they committ a ton of errors. Hilarious ones at times. Check ESPN's not-top-10 for highlights. Also check out the empty stands.

Milwaukee - The Brewers haven't finished above .500 since 2008. In 2010, they were 5 games under at this date, and they finished 8 under. In 2009, they were 1 game over, and they finished 3 games under. In fact, going backwards 10 years, there isn't one season where the Brewers were under .500 on this date in May and ended up with the winning record by the end of the season. In my opinion, they are doomed. They fall into the better than average hitting, but meh pitching category. Oddly, they have five shutouts on the season. This can be attributed to the fact that Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf are really good, while Narveson and Gallardo are really bad. That fifth starter thing hasn't worked out for them either. At least they are fielding the ball well like the Reds. I supposed the coaches don't want to look like complete idiots out there.

Chicago Cubs - Ah the Cubs. The loveable losers. They don't win at home, they don't win on the road, and I'm pretty sure they wouldn't win if you spotted them a run before the first pitch. The Cubs bat for a really high average, and they manage to get a lot of people on base. However, they aren't scoring many runs. Why is that? They don't strike out a lot, and they don't walk much. They put a lot of balls in play, but they aren't getting much action. That will change. I don't expect that low run total to hold because teams that put the ball in play eventually start scoring by the law of averages. Unfortunately for the Cubs, that won't matter. Their pitching is, is there a word worse than wretched? Thesaurus says calamitous. I'm going with that. It's dead last in the NL. Their ERA is practically 5.00 and getting worse. They give up homers like they are candy. In fact, if you go to a Cubs game and the opposing team doesn't hit a dinger, you win a free hat. There are plenty of hats left.

Houston - I guess the upside is that when you're dead last in the Central, you're only dead last by 4.5 games? I mean historically, Pittsburgh has to crap out eventually and Houston will move out of the cellar. So they have that going for them, which is nice. I won't even go into stats for a last place team because it's pointless. Hitting - meh. Pitching - facepalm. Fielding - E everyone. Fans going to a Houston game should treat it like going to NASCAR and hoping for a crash. You know failure is likely, you know it's going to be spectacular, and you don't really care who wins. You know what this team has in abundance? Overpaid old farts. Carlos Lee is getting paid $19M a year, and he's 34. He's also injured. Brett Myers is getting paid $8M a year, and he has 1 win in 6 starts, giving up 8 HRs. You know what I can buy in the Central for $27M a year? Joey Votto, Kyle Lohse, and Ryan Theriot. Or as Charlie Sheen would say, "Winners."

Final Standings:

1 - Cardinals
2 - Reds
3 - Brewers
4 - Cubs
5 - Astros
6 - Pirates

[HaemishM]

The Cubs pitching has been bad and should be much better. I think it will be once Wells and Cashner get healthy. But fuck, their hitting is schizo. The middle of their order cannot fucking hit the long ball if you spot them 300 feet. Ramirez has 1 fucking home run and 11 RBI. Byrd and Pena have 0 home runs. Soriano has 11 and he's hitting 6th or 7th these days, and I'm wondering why he's not hitting in one of the power spots? He's hit 3rd early in his career. They really make me sad.

The Pirates are better than you think, but they won't go far because their pitching is either too young or too crappy. The Brewers pitching was never going to be their strong point this year, despite everybody getting wet with anticipation of Greinke pitching there. And Fielder will be gone next year and it won't  matter too much because one thing they've been able to do the last few years is find guys to hit.

I think the Reds will win the division if only because the Cards pitching is going to fail them towards the end. And the Reds will fail in the playoffs because Dusty Baker will ride those young arms to death. I gather that's why their pitching has been what it is right now, he wore those arms out last year.

Houston just blows and will for a few more years.

[Paelos]

The Reds might win, but only if the Cards take some injuries to their lineup. I don't see their pitching breaking down simply due to the fact that the Central is a 2 dog race.
The Pirates will be good in the future, but this year they are really really bad. Also playing in front of hundreds of fans doesn't inspire you to finish strong.
The fact that Houston blows so hard just brings up bad memories of how many times they knocked out the Braves in the first round of the playoffs. 

[Ingmar]

I'm waiting to see how Greinke looks when he comes off the DL tomorrow before I start thinking the Brewers are out of contention.

[HaemishM]

I think the injuries will hurt the Cards in the latter part of the season. That bullpen issue doesn't help.

Greinke won't be bad with the Brewers, but a lot of the sports press was sure he was going to make that team an instant contender. Even healthy, I don't think he'd do that. The Brewers pissed away their chance at contending in 2008. They are poised to be in contention for the division with some better pitching, and Greinke was a good move. But they aren't there yet.

[Paelos]

Aaaaaand Liriano just threw a no-no against the White Sox.

[ghost]

Go Twins.   

[WayAbvPar]

Broke down and bought tickets for Mother's Day. I was bereft of ideas for my wife/mom, so this gets me off the hook. Bought them aftermarket and still came out ahead of what it would have cost me going through Ticketmaster. Season tickets are cheaper than face value, and nothing but the most premium of seats is going for anything more than face value. 4 seats on 3b/LF line 21st row for $150 all told. Definitely could have been rape-ier.

Was excited that perhaps Pineda or Felix would pitch, but no. Felix tonight, Fister tomorrow, and fucking Eric 'Mangina' Bedard on Sunday. He has been better lately, but god he is terrible. Maybe facing the White Sox will help.

[Ingmar]

Broke down and bought tickets for Mother's Day. I was bereft of ideas for my wife/mom, so this gets me off the hook. Bought them aftermarket and still came out ahead of what it would have cost me going through Ticketmaster. Season tickets are cheaper than face value, and nothing but the most premium of seats is going for anything more than face value. 4 seats on 3b/LF line 21st row for $150 all told. Definitely could have been rape-ier.

Was excited that perhaps Pineda or Felix would pitch, but no. Felix tonight, Fister tomorrow, and fucking Eric 'Mangina' Bedard on Sunday. He has been better lately, but god he is terrible. Maybe facing the White Sox will help.

We're going to the Giants on Mother's Day and getting Vogelsong I think. 

[ghost]

4 seats on 3b/LF line 21st row for $150 all told. Definitely could have been rape-ier.

This is amazing.  It seems like prices are down all over for baseball.  Too bad the closest teams are Houston and the Rangers.  I'd love to take the boys to a game.

[Paelos]

Braves just swept the Brewers in 4 games. I stand by my doomcasting of that Milwaukee team. A full NL East writeup inc later this evening with Wild Card predictions.

[HaemishM]

The Brewers have had some injuries that are killing them. Corey Hart's been out, not Nyjer Morgan's down for 2-4 weeks with a broken finger. That team needed the offense those guys would have provided.

[Paelos]

The Brewers have had some injuries that are killing them. Corey Hart's been out, not Nyjer Morgan's down for 2-4 weeks with a broken finger. That team needed the offense those guys would have provided.

Plus, you know, their pitching blows and shows no signs of getting off the deck. Atlanta put 8 and 8 on them in a double header. We haven't put two high-scoring games back to back against anybody all season, let alone in one day.

[Ingmar]

I think there were good signs in Greinke's start at least - he was hittable but 6 Ks vs only one walk after a long DL stint in his first start of the year is a pretty good sign I think.

[Paelos]

I waited for a while on this one because it's been an odd season so far for the East. Teams are really feeling out their pitching staffs and their bats, so we've had a few games that are completely dominating while others are total headscratchers. So, without further ado, here's the NL East.

NL EAST:

Philly - The Phillies are in the lead again. That's nothing new. At this time, 3 out of the 4 last seasons Philly was in the lead or tied for it. They have taken over the spot that the Braves used to occupy in the 90s as the team to beat. It kills me as a Braves fan to admit it, but not as much as if it was the Mets. God, I hate the Mets. Anyway, I won't waste time on Philly's pitching. It's good, and you and I both know it. How's their batting? Decidely average. They are middle of the pack in scoring runs, top third in OBP, below average in slugging, and they don't hit many home runs. Overall, they are going to ride their rotation like a horse and hope for the best with the stick. I would also be remiss if I didn't mention they are defensively sound. They have the fewest errors in the MLB.

Florida - Florida is the shocker that isn't really a shocker. They sort of hang around in this mix of Philly/Altanta/Someone-else, but they don't really close down the stretch in the division. Also, do they have any fans? If they do, they don't show up. What's carried them this far is that they are the best batting team in the division. They pressure your outfield by hitting a lot of gap shots. They love doubles, and they capitalize on them. They are great off the bench with pinch hitting situational runs. Their pitching is good without being great. They give up too many walks for starters, and that usually causes them problems. For the rest of it, they are average as grits. In fact, if I had to describe the whole Florida team, I'd probably say they are the most balanced team in the NL East, but also the most average.

Atlanta - Toss the home team shit out the window. The Braves pitching is electric. Best ERA in the NL, tied for most shutouts with Philly, most quality starts, 2nd best opp batting average, etc. They are the lynchpin of the team as usual. The starting rotation is scary from Hudson to Lowe to Hanson to Jurrjens. Even the 5th starter, Beachy is improving quickly. The hitting was the problem, but it's been on the uptick since May began. Things are starting to gel, and the Braves find themselves in the top third in runs. Here's the shocking part, they are 3rd in the NL in home runs. For a team that was 11th in that category last year, that's a ridiculous turnaround. Also, the defensive issues that they had last season are gone. They have become masters of the double play, and commit fewer errors than everyone except Philly and Colorado.

Washington - Only two games under .500? That's not bad for this squad. Washington has been slowly improving, but not enough to make any legitmate run at anything this season. They have made their biggest strides on the hill, bringing in Tom Gorzelanny who is pitching well, and Jason Marquis has put 2010 behind him with a respectable 3.66 ERA. The problem is that Livan Hernandez and John Lannan are terrible. Hernandez is too old to care, but Lannan's only 26 and needs to improve or get moved somewhere else. What's their other problem? They can't hit the broad side of an aircraft carrier right now. If it wasn't for the Padres doing their best Tsunami victim impression, the Nats would be the worst hitting team in baseball. They are batting .224 as a squad. Wow. As per usual I'm going to embarrass you by comparing your team to a pitcher who is doing better. I'm going to choose Joe Saunders, a 30 year old 0-4 starter for the Dbacks who is batting .231 this season. He has a 5.72 ERA (which is total fail) but still manages to focus long enough at the plate to hit better than the Nats.

New York Mets - Holy shit, Mets. If it wasn't for that 6 game winning stretch against the Astros, Dbacks and Nats, you'd be completely in the shitter. Just don't get too high and mighty though from the bottom of the pack, because you still have to play the Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, and Pirates in mid-May, and unfortunately they aren't cellar dwellers. What's gone wrong for the Mets besides the whole Madoff thing? For starters, well, you have no idea who your starters are, and half of those are over a 4.70 ERA. Your batting is supported by 3 guys: Reyes, Beltran, and Davis. Other than that, you're begging for someone to crest .250 with any regularity. I mean Angel Pagan is batting .159! The fuck? Not that it matters because he's out with a bad oblique. Can't wait to get him back! You might be able to challenge the Nats for the four spot, but it'll require David Wright to stop sucking. Good luck!

Final Standings:
1 - Atlanta
2 - Philly (NL Wild Card winner)
3 - Florida
4 - Nationals
5 - Mets

[Paelos]

To Recap, here are my playoff teams coming out the NL:

This is my seeded order,

1 - Rockies
2 - Braves
3 - Cardinals
4 - Phillies (Wild Card)

First round would be Rockies v. Phillies, and Braves v. Cardinals

[WayAbvPar]

So, Milton Bradley nearly singlehandedly loses the game Sunday, and gets his walking papers today. FINALLY. Why the fuck couldn't they do that BEFORE I bought tickets? Now we just need to dump Chone Figgins and I will be almost out of Mariners I fucking loathe.

[stu]

I still can't believe you guys had Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee!

[Azuredream]

<obligatory Indians Sabathia/Lee comment>

[Sjofn]

The Giants game yesterday was hella fun, I don't even mind that I'm totally sunburned now. Vogelsong looked really good, I am sure it's because he could feel my disappointment that he was our starter. He decided to step it up!

[Paelos]

Braves had a great weekend taking 2/3 in Philly, and they did in on national TV. We usually suck at those!

[WayAbvPar]

I still can't believe you guys had Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee!

I will give our GM credit for that...brilliant move. Traded for him for some decent but not major prospects, then waited to see how the team would fare. Once it was obvious that they were going nowhere fast, he flipped him for much better prospects (including Justin Smoak, who has figured it out and is just raking). Very savvy move by GM Z.

[Ingmar]

The AL Central is literally reversed in standings from how I thought it would go.

[WayAbvPar]

Brandon League 

[Paelos]

The Nationals own the Braves. No idea why. They are a terrible team and we are playing the best ball we've played, and suddenly we turn into backwater beer league players that make 4 errors and blow the game.

[HaemishM]

And Geo Soto is probably going on the fucking DL for the Cubs (and my fantasy team). His average has been fairly low (.226) but he at least has had a bit of pop and his defense is good. Fuck.

[stu]

Florida -  do they have any fans? If they do, they don't show up.

Some friends of mine from Philly went to see the game against the Marlins the other night, here in Miami. They told me every section was made up of mostly Philly fans. Sad. It's not like the Marlins have a boring team (although their tv broadcasters could sedate a cattle stampede with their deliveries). If you live in one of the safer neighborhoods in Miami-Dade County, chances are the ballpark is anywhere from 15 - 30 miles away. The shortest route from my apartment is 23 miles and I loathe driving on US-1 and I-95. Outside of the stadium is nothing but a Wal-Mart and a Dunkin' Donuts. It's been three years since I went to a game there and I only did because... the Phillies were playing.



Other than that, they have an exciting core of players. Stanton is a beast.

[Ingmar]

I don't really understand why Floridians hate baseball. I've seen it argued with a semi-straight face that they're all Yankee fan transplants from NYC, but that doesn't really hold up.

[HaemishM]

Two words - rain delay.  

EDIT: Also - fucking humidity.

[stu]

It comes down to people here being flat broke. People can barely afford gas. And I'm sure half the people rolling through Brickell in a Mercedez are driving on fumes.

Everyone loves sports down here, there's no question about it. We do have a lot of transplants. I'm a New Englander and Boston fan. But, if you love going to games, it shouldn't make a difference what city you're in. Watching games there just... sucks.

A lot of it has to do with atmosphere. Sun Life Stadium is surrounded by highways and dirty neighborhoods. At least outside of American Airlines Arena and the BankAtlantic Center, there's restauarants, bars, billiard halls. This is a huge market, but the Marlins franchise is a good example of how to execute placement poorly. Even the new park that will open next year is in the wrong spot, although the team's image will improve. It's a $1.2b makeover